St. Louis’ Selloff Continues as Paul DeJong Headvertisements to Toronto

St. Louis’ Selloff Continues as Paul DeJong Headvertisements to Toronto

Paul DeJong
Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

About 12 hours after Bo Bichette left Monday night time’s sport with a proper knee harm, the Blue Jays discovered his attainable alternative, buying shortstop Paul DeJong and money issues from the Cardinals on Tuesday afternoon for minor league reliever Matt Svanson.

DeJong being related once more would possibly make you suppose that you simply’ve warped again to pre-2020 days, however hold on earlier than you load up on masks and bathroom paper; he’s really had a pleasant little 2023 season. I don’t suppose anybody would argue with me if I stated the Cardinals had been having a season with a surprising lack of nice surprises, however DeJong’s yr has been a type of rarities. While a triple-slash of .233/.297/.412 gained’t get you to many All-Star Games, it’s a a lot prettier line than his .196/.280/.351 collapse from 2020 to ’22, reaching a nadir with a ’22 season during which DeJong wanted a telescope simply to see the Mendoza line. He nonetheless performs strong protection at shortstop, and his bat has rebounded sufficient that there’s as soon as once more a major function for him on a significant league roster. The solely motive he was even in St. Louis this yr was the six-year contract he signed earlier than the 2018 season.

While this piece has the “2023 trade deadline tag,” that’s really form of a lie; this can be a common ol’ harm alternative commerce that simply occurred to coincide with the deadline. The full extent of Bichette’s harm most likely gained’t be identified earlier than the commerce market closes up store for the autumn, so the Jays needed to act rapidly except they needed to attempt to substitute him in-house. And whereas they’d choices within the group, all of them had no less than one severely regarding problem. Santiago Espinal is extra an emergency shortstop than a starter, and Cavan Biggio solely has two skilled innings at brief. And neither is offering sufficient offense to make you wish to take that defensive threat. In the minors, Addison Barger has suffered by means of elbow issues this season and isn’t a pure shortstop both, and Orelvis Martinez simply debuted at Triple-A. Ernie Clement turning right into a bizarre plate self-discipline deity is attention-grabbing, however extra for a foul staff looking for an upside play, not a staff in a decent, crowded pennant race that wants some certainty.

ZiPS Projection – Paul DeJong

Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
RoS 2023 .220 .297 .433 141 19 31 6 0 8 21 13 45 2 100 2 0.9
2024 .221 .294 .421 399 53 88 17 0 21 62 36 127 5 96 6 2.2
2025 .220 .295 .420 381 51 84 16 0 20 57 35 122 4 97 5 2.0

ZiPS 2024 Projection Percentiles – Paul DeJong

Percentile 2B HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR
95% 26 33 .269 .338 .551 138 4.4
90% 24 30 .259 .329 .525 131 4.0
80% 21 27 .245 .316 .483 119 3.4
70% 20 25 .235 .307 .456 109 2.9
60% 18 22 .227 .301 .436 102 2.5
50% 17 21 .221 .294 .421 96 2.2
40% 16 19 .214 .286 .403 91 1.9
30% 15 18 .205 .279 .386 84 1.5
20% 13 16 .195 .271 .367 78 1.1
10% 11 13 .181 .256 .340 65 0.5
5% 10 11 .171 .244 .322 60 0.1

DeJong’s choices are actually a bit of extra difficult. At $12.5 million and $15 million, I think about the Cardinals would have declined them as they did with Kolten Wong after a strong 2020 season. He has a $2 million buyout for 2024, and there could be a state of affairs during which the Jays decide it up if Bichette’s harm seems to be pretty critical one. Is $10.5 million (since $2 million is baked into the cake both method) minus regardless of the Cardinals are sending with him not price it for them to maintain DeJong because the beginning shortstop for an undetermined a part of subsequent season earlier than making him a utility infielder?

There was no motive to anticipate the Cardinals to get a haul of prospects for DeJong. Svanson is having a little bit of a breakout season within the minors as a reliever, however you’ll be able to’t ignore the truth that it’s as a 24-year-old in High-A ball. My colleague Eric Longenhagen has his two-seamer at 92–94 mph and his slider at 84, and that he could be an honorable point out within the Jays prospect checklist however wouldn’t make the principle rankings. ZiPS turns Svanson’s 1.23 ERA/2.55 FIP right into a 4.30 ERA translation with the Cardinals in 2023 as a result of, properly, 24-year-old in High-A ball. But if he advances rapidly — and he might want to with a purpose to have any form of profession within the majors — he might present up behind the massive league bullpen.

Toronto would a lot want that Bichette’s knee is a minor problem that resolves rapidly, however they’ve rightly formulated a strong Plan B right here. There’s actually no time like the current.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com