Andrew Abbott Is Dwelling the Excessive Life

The Reds are on the verge of their first playoff look since 2020 and their first actual playoff look since 2013, after they misplaced the loudest baseball sport within the historical past of Pittsburgh. (I travel on whether or not 2020 counts as an actual postseason, relying on what’s expedient for my argument. In this case, I feel it’s a must to rating not less than one run for it to rely as a playoff look.) And in pursuit of that finish, the Reds’ possession and entrance workplace have elected… to not ship reinforcements. They traded for Sam Moll on the deadline, however that’s it. The Reds are extra related than they’ve been in a decade, and this poor group is getting Siege of Jadotville’d. Water is working low, and assist is just not coming.

So it’s all as much as you, Andrew Abbott.

It’s so much to ask of a rookie, however Abbott has already shouldered an outsize load, with a 2.35 ERA over 11 begins within the majors. How good has he been? I’d argue he’s overtaken school baseball media celebrity Stephen Schoch for the title of most well-known member of the 2021 Virginia Cavaliers.

Among the 59 rookie pitchers with not less than 40 innings pitched this season, Abbott is fourth in WAR and third in ERA. The solely two rookies with decrease ERAs this 12 months, Yennier Cano and Tyler Holton, are each relievers. He’s seventh in Okay-BB%, trailing solely Taj Bradley and Eury Pérez amongst starters.

Abbott’s tough begin in opposition to the Cubs on Monday, through which he gave up 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings, was considered one of simply two in his entire profession that didn’t qualify as a high quality begin. And lest that conjure up photographs of Mike Leake, Abbott has allowed zero runs in 5 of his 11 profession begins, and one run or much less in seven of 11. That’s extra than simply holding your group within the sport; that’s profitable it by your self.

Unlike Pérez, who’s bodily about as spectacular as pitchers get, Abbott is brief and blocky, simply 6-foot and 180 kilos, with a compact, nearly matter-of-fact left-handed supply. He doesn’t throw conspicuously onerous, and the pitch motion part of his Baseball Savant web page is replete with blue-highlighted textual content — particularly, within the space of vertical motion. Despite being brief for a pitcher (or maybe as a result of he’s brief for a pitcher), he throws from a excessive arm slot, and none of his secondary pitches have as a lot downward motion as they need to.

Abbott Elementary, trigger he schooled ’em. @andrewabbott33 pic.twitter.com/lXAkXtOzHy

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 2, 2023

What meaning is hitters get below the ball on a regular basis. Among the 144 pitchers with not less than 60 main league innings this season, Abbott is essentially the most excessive fly ball pitcher on the market, with a FB% of 56.9 and a GB/FB ratio of 0.43. Guys like Marcus Stroman and Logan Webb will induce about six occasions as many grounders per fly ball as Abbott does.

Now, you gained’t discover Abbott close to the highest of the leaderboards for inducing popups; he’s 77th out of that 144 pitcher pattern in IFFB%. And his opponent wOBA on fly balls, .310, is healthier than common, nevertheless it’s not within the high 25 amongst pitchers with not less than 90 fly balls allowed. But what in the event you take out his four-seamer? That’s the one pitch he throws with average-or-better vertical motion — the one pitch unsuspecting hitters wouldn’t get below.

When we speak about utilizing secondary pitches to induce weak contact, the picture that involves thoughts is often a smooth floor ball. But the identical precept can work in the event you flip the image upside-down — if a pitcher can get hitters to hit the underside half of the ball persistently. Two of the most effective pitchers in baseball at doing this are the Rogers twins, each of whom throw from low arm angles, particularly Tyler.

How does Abbott obtain the identical factor as an over-the-top man? The orthodox method to get weak contact within the air is to throw a tough, downward-breaking curveball or changeup that circumstances hitters to swing below the fastball and pop it up, however Abbott does that with simply his secondary pitches. When batters make contact with Abbott’s secondary pitches, they get below it 43.9% of the time, in response to Baseball Savant. He is perhaps the most effective pitcher within the league at getting outs within the air together with his breaking and off-speed stuff.

Abbott put up some outrageous strikeout numbers within the minor leagues — 271 punchouts in 185 innings — however I believe quite a lot of that has to do with popping out of the draft with 4 years of expertise within the ACC and dealing with much less polished competitors on the decrease ranges. Now, it’s all in regards to the popups and smooth fly balls.

As with any rookie who will get by on an uncommon technique, there are official questions on how lengthy he can maintain this up. And on the danger of getting a bit of too sabermetrics 2.0 on you, sure, Abbott’s strand fee begins with a 9 and his opponent BABIP is .235. His FIP is 3.90. On the opposite hand, he can be main the main leagues in ERA proper now if he had sufficient innings to qualify; after all he’s going to regress. Though he might not regress as a lot as you may suppose; as an excessive fly ball pitcher who’s demonstrated an excessive capability to get weak contact on balls within the air, he must run a low BABIP. It additionally explains how he’s managing to run a 9.9% HR/FB fee regardless of pitching his dwelling video games at a stadium the place Ben Revere might’ve hit 20 dingers a 12 months. (With that stated, Abbott’s HR/FB fee on the highway is 6.7%; at dwelling it’s 13.0, which isn’t one million miles from the leaguewide fee of 14.7% at GABP.)

“Can this slightly odd rookie keep up this outlier performance?” is clearly a enjoyable and helpful query to ask in any circumstance, however on this case, the reply will go a great distance towards figuring out the NL Central race. Abbott has been Cincinnati’s finest beginning pitcher by far this season. What makes the Reds’ lack of ability to safe reinforcements within the rotation all of the extra galling is how apparent it’s that they need assistance there. They are twentieth within the league in each ERA- and pitcher WAR. Their rotation is twenty seventh within the league in these classes. Reds beginning pitchers make up simply 26.5% of the group’s whole WAR, which is twenty third within the league.

That final ratio isn’t troubling by itself. In reality, six of the seven groups beneath the Reds on the checklist are within the playoff hunt: the Red Sox, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Dodgers, and Braves. But the Dodgers and Orioles went out and received beginning pitching on the deadline. The Rangers, who traded for Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, received a lot of it. Cincinnati’s plan is to attend for Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo to come back again.

Greene and Lodolo are each positive pitchers, however I’ve two objections to Cincinnati placing all its eggs in that basket. First, I don’t understand how large the overlap is between Reds fandom and Arsenal fandom, however for many of the late 2000s and early 2010s, Manchester United and Chelsea would exit and signal the largest names on the switch market, whereas Arsene Wenger stated one thing like, “Eventually Abou Diaby and Tomáš Rosický won’t be injured anymore, and that’ll be like a new signing.” (Diaby and Rosický had been by no means not harm, and Arsenal completed fourth yearly.)

Second, Lodolo and Greene aren’t slated to return till the top of the month. That’s one of many two remaining months left within the common season. In context, that’s a extremely very long time to attend in a decent three-team division race, significantly when each the Brewers and Cubs introduced assist in extra assist than Cincinnati on the deadline. Yes, that plan is a giant wager on Lodolo and Greene, however by extension it’s a giant wager on Abbott as effectively, because the younger fly ball-happy lefthander now has to hold the rotation for an additional three or 4 weeks.