The Lack of Corey Seager Threatens the Rangers’ Scorching Start

The Rangers have spent just about the entire younger season atop the AL West, and so they solidified their place this weekend by taking two out of three video games from the Astros in Houston. Though they’re off to their finest begin in seven years, they misplaced Corey Seager to a left hamstring pressure final week and will not get him again for a month, threatening the momentum they’ve constructed.

The 28-year-old Seager got here up limping whereas operating out a fifth-inning double in opposition to the Royals final Tuesday; he grabbed at his left hamstring shortly after rounding first base, hopped his option to second in awkward style, after which began again to the Rangers’ dugout earlier than the coach may attain him. On Wednesday, normal supervisor Chris Young informed the media that an MRI revealed Seager suffered a Grade 2 pressure.

This is sadly an all-too-familiar place for Seager — on the injured listing — and an all-too-familiar harm for him as properly. While a member of the Dodgers in 2019, he missed a month with an analogous left hamstring pressure, to not be confused with the myriad different accidents the shortstop suffered with the Dodgers, together with a torn ulnar collateral ligament requiring Tommy John surgical procedure in 2018 and a proper hand fracture in ’21. After enjoying 157 video games and successful NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2016 after which 145 video games the subsequent yr, Seager performed in a complete of 307 video games out of a potential 546 from ’18 to ’21, the equal of 91 video games over a full season.

After signing a 10-year, $325 million deal in December 2021, Seager was wholesome sufficient to play in 151 video games final yr, his highest whole since 2016, however regardless of clubbing a career-high 33 homers, he slumped to a .245/.317/.455 line, setting full-season lows in all three slash stats. That was nonetheless good for a good 117 wRC+, 5 factors increased than his injury-marred 2019, however it wasn’t precisely what the Rangers had in thoughts after they signed him.

As MLB.com’s Mike Petriello wrote in February, Seager could have been harm by infield shifts greater than another hitter final yr and is likely to be the most important beneficiary of the brand new anti-shift rule. He led the majors in each batted balls in opposition to a shift (481) and pulled grounders in opposition to a shift (107) and picked up simply six hits (!) for a .056 batting common. Take these away — as if we may — and his batting line would have been .286/.367/.543.

With the brand new guidelines in place, Seager is 2-for-7 on pulled grounders, which doesn’t inform us a lot however is a step in the fitting route. Likewise concerning his general .359/.469/.538 line; via Sunday he ranked fourth within the AL in on-base proportion and sixth in each batting common and wRC+ (182), however as soon as the Rangers play on Monday, he’ll slip beneath the qualifying threshold. His batted ball totals are in need of the purpose of stabilizing, however as long as we’re right here, we’ll word that he’s been lighting up Statcast, with a 95.2 mph common exit velocity, 18.2% barrel price, and 54.5% hard-hit price. Particularly when he’s so locked in, shedding him now actually stings.

The Rangers have been 7–4 when Seager went down and are 9–6 now, making this their finest 15-game begin since 2016, after they went 95–67 and gained the AL West. The division title has been the property of the Astros in each full season since, although the A’s snuck in a first-place end within the 60-game 2020 season. Texas, in the meantime, managed only a .429 successful proportion from 2017 to ’22, the sixth-worst document in baseball and roughly the equal of a 69–93 season. After committing half a billion {dollars} to Seager and second baseman Marcus Semien final yr, the crew went 68–94, an eight-game enchancment over 2021… but completed farther from first place, because the Astros improved from 95 wins to 106.

The Rangers don’t have any simple option to substitute Seager, however then which crew can try this with their lineup’s centerpiece? In our preseason Depth Charts, we projected Semien to get 77 PA at shortstop, the place he performed recurrently from 2015 to ’20 and for 17 video games final yr, usually whereas Seager DH’ed. But each Semien and supervisor Bruce Bochy have already indicated a choice for maintaining him on the keystone, so as an alternative the plan is for lefty-swinging utilityman Josh H. Smith to take many of the begins at shortstop, with righty-swinging utilityman Ezequiel Duran contributing as properly; the pair did the identical in left discipline for the season’s first 9 video games to assist cowl for Leody Taveras‘ absence due to an oblique strain. Both players were rookies last year, and neither has hit much at the major league level. The 25-year-old Smith slashed a meager .197/.307/.249 (68 wRC+) in 73 games last year, though his minor league track record is strong enough that he projects to bat a respectable .240/.333/.357 (102 wRC+). Thus far this season, he’s simply 4-for-26 with 4 walks and 5 (!) hit-by-pitches. The 23-year-old Duran performed in 58 video games for the Rangers final yr, hitting .236/.277/.365 (82 wRC+); he tasks to hit .241/.286/403 (94 wRC+) however up to now is simply 3-for-20.

The lack of Seager is magnified by the sluggish begins of Semien (.237/.270/.356, 68 wRC+) and Adolis García (.218/.267/.400, 78 wRC+); the outfield as a complete has mixed for only a 76 wRC+, the majors’ sixth-lowest mark. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe, third baseman Josh Jung, and the catching tandem of Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver (the latter of whom moreover shares DH duties) have bolstered the offense, which ranks third within the AL at 5.60 runs per recreation. A more in-depth look exhibits that Texas’ present 98 wRC+ merely matches that of final yr’s crew, and in line with BaseRuns, the crew’s 0.96-run per recreation hole between its precise scoring and projected scoring is the majors’ largest, almost double that of the second-ranked Red Sox:

One issue that helps to account for that hole is that the Rangers have hit .321/.386/.557 with runners in scoring place. With or with out Seager, it’s not a lot of a stretch to say that they gained’t keep that.

Where this yr’s Rangers crew exhibits probably the most promise in bettering upon final yr’s is that they’ve invested in run prevention this time round, committing about $265 million to wooing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney and retaining Martín Pérez after he broke out to develop into a first-time All-Star. The particular person stats of these 4 and holdover Jon Gray are all over to this point, however whereas their 3.67 FIP and 4.34 ERA don’t appear to be a lot to write down residence about, these figures respectively rank fifth and seventh within the AL, huge enhancements from final yr, after they positioned thirteenth in ERA and twelfth in FIP. Even larger issues needs to be anticipated — the unit did rank third behind solely the 2 New York groups in our preseason Positional Power Rankings — however for now one of the best information is that everybody’s wholesome, no small matter when contemplating that bunch. After a dud of a debut on Opening Day in opposition to the Phillies (3.2 innings, 5 runs), deGrom has pitched a lot better in opposition to the Orioles and Royals.

The Rangers aren’t the one crew within the AL West that’s and not using a lineup linchpin. The Astros are lacking Jose Altuve after he fractured his proper thumb within the World Baseball Classic, and up to now they’re simply 7–9; in the meantime, neither the Angels (7–8) nor the Mariners (8–8) have come out of the gate sturdy in what tasks to be a a lot tighter division race than we’ve seen lately. The Rangers have gotten an early leg up, however we’ll see if they will preserve issues rolling till Seager will get again.