There might be practically 100,000 fewer prime A-level grades awarded this yr in contrast with 2022, an training skilled has recommended.
Professor Alan Smithers’ report says nearly 50,000 college students might miss out on getting the A* and A grades they may have anticipated final yr if this summer time’s grading returns to pre-pandemic requirements.
He predicts round 10% of grades will likely be an A* and round 27.5% will likely be an A this yr, in contrast with 2022 when 14.6% of grades have been an A* and 36.4% an A.
In 2019, 7.8% of grades have been an A* and 25.5% have been an A.
The authorities has mentioned the variety of A* and A grades awarded in England ought to fall again to pre-pandemic ranges as exams return to regular.
Prof Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research on the University of Buckingham, expects the variety of prime A-level grades to fall considerably however not by fairly as a lot as the federal government requested, as was the case final yr.
The skilled says academics developed a “taste for awarding top grades” in some topics in the course of the COVID pandemic which markers will likely be “reluctant to relinquish”.
He mentioned: “During the teacher assessment years, many students and their parents will have developed unreasonable expectations.
“Whatever the extent to which prime grades are introduced down this yr, the drop will result in plenty of disappointment and doubtless an enormous improve within the variety of appeals.”
Prof Smithers additionally mentioned disruption from instructor strikes could have led examination boards to be extra lenient.
He mentioned the proportion of prime grades in performing arts and sensible topics elevated sharply in the course of the pandemic when grades have been primarily based on instructor assessments.
That determine rose much less steeply for science and maths as a result of pupils finding out these topics have been already getting extra prime grades earlier than the pandemic.
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However, final yr extra prime grades have been awarded for music and performing arts than physics and chemistry regardless of the return of exams, suggesting a “profound change” which can make it tougher to chop the variety of prime grades awarded again to 2019 ranges.
This development led to women receiving way more A* grades than boys, who had beforehand had the sting as a result of way more of them studied topics the place pupils can “manifestly amass right answers”.
If extra A* grades proceed to be awarded for arts and humanities than earlier than the pandemic, this might imply boys don’t regain their lead.
Pupils in Northern Ireland anticipated to get finest outcomes
Prof Smithers mentioned he expects pupils in Northern Ireland to get one of the best outcomes, as they’ve finished for a few years, adopted by these in Wales after which England.
A Department for Education spokesperson mentioned: “This year, GCSE and A-level grading is largely returning to normal, in line with plans set out by Ofqual [which regulates exams] almost two years ago, to make sure qualifications maintain their value and students get the opportunities they deserve.
“This means nationwide outcomes are anticipated to be just like these in pre-pandemic years, and a pupil needs to be simply as more likely to obtain a selected grade this yr as they’d have been earlier than the pandemic.
“The number of top grades also has no bearing on the number of university places available.”
A spokeswoman for Ofqual mentioned: “This year we expect exam grades to go back to similar levels to 2019, which was the last year before the pandemic.”
Content Source: information.sky.com