For a crew with a shedding document, the Padres had been aggressive prematurely of the August 1 commerce deadline, swinging three trades in an effort to patch holes on the main league roster with out fretting in regards to the affect of additional rising their payroll. Yet their first week since upgrading their roster hasn’t gone properly. Not solely did they lose Joe Musgrove to the injured listing on Friday, however additionally they adopted that by shedding three of 4 to the Dodgers this weekend at Petco Park, lacking a golden alternative to get to .500 for the primary time in almost two months and achieve floor on the NL West leaders.
The 30-year-old Musgrove was scratched from his begin final Wednesday in Colorado as a result of what was initially termed “minor” shoulder soreness. The considering on the time was that he would simply miss one flip and be capable to begin in opposition to the Mariners in a two-game collection beginning on Tuesday. But when Musgrove flew dwelling to San Diego to be examined, an MRI revealed that he had irritation in his proper shoulder capsule. Surgery isn’t but a consideration, however he’ll be shut down from throwing for a minimum of three weeks, which means that at finest he’ll return someday in September. The Padres gained’t have a lot readability till he’s examined after his relaxation interval, after which he’ll want a minimum of a few weeks to rebuild his pitch rely.
The damage caught Musgrove without warning. “I honestly thought we were going in for a pretty routine checkup… but they went in and found some injury to the capsule,” he informed reporters. “Every part of me wants to go out there and throw. But everything’s telling us that we needed to step back and give it some rest.”
The damage caught the Padres without warning as properly. Said normal supervisor A.J. Preller, “At the time of the deadline, we honestly were not looking at Joe as missing a few weeks or extended time or anything like that.” Preller did reinforce the pitching employees by buying starter Rich Hill from the Pirates in one deadline-day commerce and reliever Scott Barlow from the Royals in one other, however they don’t add as much as a wholesome Musgrove.
On that observe, after two seasons during which he threw a mixed 362.1 innings with a 3.06 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 6.9 WAR — a efficiency that helped him earn a five-year, $100 million extension alongside the best way — Musgrove has had a tough time staying wholesome this yr. On February 27, he fractured his left large toe in a weight room accident, which put him not on time in spring coaching and landed him on the IL to begin the season. During his first rehab begin with Triple-A El Paso, he injured the AC joint of his throwing shoulder after touchdown on it following an ungainly throw to first base, which required a cortisone shot and pushed again his common season debut till April 22. Since then, he’s had one begin pushed again by a few days as a result of a blister on his foot, sustained after trying to run barefoot on 120-degree synthetic turf through the crew’s collection in Mexico City, and revealed in June that he had been sporting a compression sleeve on his proper arm to cope with bursitis in his elbow. Despite that litany, he’s pitched to a 3.05 ERA and three.53 FIP in 97.1 innings, good for two.1 WAR, second among the many crew’s starters behind Blake Snell.
The lack of Musgrove leaves the Padres with a rotation of Snell, Yu Darvish, Hill, and Seth Lugo, with Nick Martinez, Michael Wacha, and Pedro Avila obtainable to spherical out a five- or six-man unit. Each pitcher has his points, together with the stalwarts. For as sturdy as Snell has been by way of ERA (2.61, tops amongst certified starters in both league), his 3.67 FIP and three.84 xERA each recommend he’s walked a tightrope by way of contact and baserunners, and his 13.7% stroll price is the very best amongst qualifiers by 2.7 share factors. Darvish has posted a 4.41 ERA, the very best full-season mark of his profession, and hasn’t strung collectively greater than two straight high quality begins all season.
Wacha has been efficient when obtainable (2.84 ERA, 3.72 FIP) however is simply now working his manner again after lacking over 5 weeks as a result of shoulder irritation; he made 46 pitches in his first rehab begin this previous Saturday and wishes a minimum of a pair extra outings to be absolutely constructed up. Martinez started the season within the rotation however, save for a three-inning spot begin rather than Musgrove on August 2, has been within the bullpen and would should be stretched out. Avila, a 26-year-old rookie who has struck out 21 in 13.2 innings unfold over 4 appearances up to now, is constructed up; he threw 88 pitches in a four-inning begin on August 1 after which 90 in a 4.2-inning look in aid of Hill on Sunday.
Hill made an inauspicious debut for the Padres, going through a righty-heavy Dodgers lineup constructed for such matchups; the 43-year-old southpaw has allowed a .355 wOBA to righties this yr. In the primary inning, one of many new righties the Dodgers acquired forward of the deadline, Amed Rosario, hit a two-run homer off Hill. In the second, one other such righty, Enrique Hernández, hit a leadoff single and scored, and Freddie Freeman quickly adopted with a three-run homer. Hill lasted simply three innings in what turned an 8–2 romp in Los Angeles’ favor.
That loss prevented the Padres from night their document at 56–56; they haven’t been at .500 since May 11, once they had been 19–19. But after slipping to a season-high eight video games below at 38–46 on July 2, that they had gone 14–9, permitting them to move into the deadline with some sense of momentum and a notion that the season might be salvaged with out tearing aside their $251 million roster.
Sunday’s loss moreover assured the Padres no higher than a break up within the four-game wraparound collection. On Friday, Darvish matched his longest outing of the season, handing over seven innings of two-run ball and leaving with a 3–2 lead. But the Dodgers pounced on reliever Robert Suarez, who retired simply two of the seven hitters he confronted; all 5 ultimately scored off Suarez and Tom Cosgrove, and the Dodgers added three extra within the ninth for a ten–5 win. The Padres withstood a wobbly five-inning, four-walk, three-run effort by Snell the following day, overcoming a 3–1 deficit in opposition to a shaky Dodgers bullpen to win 8–3; the victory broke a six-game shedding streak in opposition to Los Angeles relationship again to May 6.
So the Padres arrived at Monday afternoon’s recreation badly needing a win. When they rolled up 5 runs in opposition to Tony Gonsolin within the third inning — two by way of a Luis Campusano homer, two by way of a Fernando Tatis Jr. double, and one by way of a Manny Machado sacrifice fly — it appeared as if they may get one. To that time, Lugo had allowed simply two singles in three innings, considered one of them erased by way of a double play. Then all hell broke free: six of the primary seven Dodgers within the high of the fourth reached safely, 5 by way of hits. David Peralta hit an RBI double, Jason Heyward a two-run double, and Miguel Rojas an RBI single that loaded the bases and lower the deficit to at least one.
Lugo had pitched properly up to now within the season, making a clean transition from aid work to submit a 3.54 ERA and three.75 FIP in 89 innings. He’d additionally been persistently consuming innings currently, lasting six or extra in 5 of his final six begins, capped by two seven-inning outings in opposition to the Pirates and Rockies. Over his previous three turns, together with a six-inning effort in opposition to the Tigers, he’d generated a wholesome 15.7% swinging-strike price and a 34.5% known as strike and stroll price (CSW%). But Dodgers hitters are in a unique class than these lineups, and on Monday they weren’t shopping for what Lugo was promoting; he entered the fourth inning having thrown 42 pitches however netting simply two swinging strikes. By the time the Dodgers loaded the bases, six of the 12 balls hit off of him had been 95 mph or higher, three of a minimum of 106.9 mph, particularly the Heyward double and two singles by James Outman.
Thanks to Avila’s lengthy outing, Padres supervisor Bob Melvin had most of his bullpen obtainable, however he sat on his fingers because the Dodgers ate Lugo alive like a faculty of piranhas devouring a cow. With the bases loaded and Lugo 25 pitches into the weeds within the third, having retired only one batter, Steven Wilson was heating up within the bullpen. Up subsequent was Mookie Betts, whom Lugo had struck out twice — his solely two strikeouts of the day, because it occurred. Melvin caught together with his starter, however Lugo fell behind 3–0 after which served up the cookiest cookie that ever cookied — a 92.4 mph middle-middle four-seam fastball that Betts launched over the left-center discipline wall for a grand slam and an 8–5 lead.
The Dodgers went on so as to add one other 5 runs within the sixth in opposition to Barlow, making it 13 unanswered till Campusano hit one other two-run homer throughout rubbish time within the ninth.
Melvin mentioned after the sport that Wilson wasn’t prepared in time to face Betts, however that he can be prepared for Freeman, the following hitter. He appeared to be watching a unique recreation when it got here to Lugo:
“[Lugo] was pitching great leading up to that… We just scored five and got some hits. You’ve got to give him a little rope. Obviously, it was going to be his last hitter as far as Betts goes, then it’s a grand slam. Next thing you know, it’s an eight-run inning. Look, obviously (I) don’t feel great about it. But up until then, he was pitching great. Then there were some balls up in the zone and all of a sudden they were getting good swings on them.”
It is perhaps hyperbolic to recommend that the one-two intestine punch of losses on Sunday and Monday, and the 34 runs allowed over 4 video games, had been the demise knell for the Padres’ season, however in mild of the lack of Musgrove, it is going to be that a lot more durable for the 55–58 crew to string collectively the sort of run they should make they playoffs. The Padres are seventh within the NL Wild Card race, 4 video games behind the Reds (60–55) within the third spot, with the slumping Diamondbacks (57–56) two video games forward of San Diego, the Marlins (58–56) two and a half forward, and the Cubs (58–55) three forward. Our Playoff Odds nonetheless like them greater than all however the Wild Card-leading Giants (62–51) and Phillies (61–51), giving them a 39.3% likelihood of constructing it by way of that route.
To these eyes, that appears a stretch, significantly on condition that the Padres’ subsequent 18 video games, and 32 of their subsequent 35, can be in opposition to groups with data of .500 or higher: the Mariners, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Marlins, Brewers, Giants, Phillies, Astros, and Dodgers once more, with solely a three-game street journey to St. Louis as a respite. San Diego does get such a pillow-soft touchdown after that, with 4 of their ultimate 5 collection in opposition to the A’s, Rockies, Cardinals and White Sox, that the crew truly has the NL’s second-lowest opponent successful share for the rest of the season (.498), but when the roster doesn’t begin displaying its mettle, these video games gained’t matter.
Facing all these contenders, do the Padres have it in them to go one thing like 32–17 the remainder of the best way to get to 87 wins and a probable playoff berth? We’re about to search out out, however given what we’ve seen up to now, I don’t assume too many observers can be stunned in the event that they don’t rise to the event.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com