How’s That New Cutter Treating You?

Do you keep in mind the springtime? We had been so younger and carefree, so stuffed with hope. We hadn’t even breathed in our first lungfuls of Canadian wildfire smoke. Pitchers had been stuffed with hope, too. They’d spent the entire offseason in a lab, or taking part in winter ball, or perhaps simply in a pleasant condominium, attempting to determine how you can get higher.

Amazingly, a whole lot of them settled on the very same recipe for achievement: begin throwing a cutter. You couldn’t open up a soon-to-be-shuttered sports part with out studying an article about some pitcher whose plan for world domination hinged on whipping up a scrumptious new minimize fastball. Now that we’re within the canine days of summer time, it’s time to verify and see how these cutters are coming alongside. Are they browning properly and simply beginning to set? Or have they stuffed the home with smoke, effervescent over the perimeters of the pan and burning right down to a carbonized blob that must be scraped off the underside of the oven with metal wool?

I pulled knowledge on each pitcher who has thrown not less than 400 pitches in each 2022 and ’23, specializing in those who’re throwing a cutter not less than 10% of the time this yr after throwing it both sometimes or in no way final season. These cutoffs did imply that we missed some attention-grabbing gamers like Brayan Bello and Danny Coulombe, however we’re left with a listing of 25 pitchers.

So did their new toys flip them into peak Pedro? The brief reply is not any. Taken as an entire, they’ve carried out roughly in addition to they did final season. As you’d anticipate from any pattern, roughly half our pitchers obtained higher, and half obtained worse. Of the pitchers who improved from final yr to this yr, I don’t suppose I can definitively say that any of them reached new heights particularly due to the cutter.

There are many causes for this. For one, pitchers are already inveterate tinkers. If a sure participant had been constructed to throw the proper cutter, they possible would’ve found it earlier than they grew to become a longtime huge leaguer. Every every now and then, somebody will unlock an entire new gear after they add a pitch, however it’s not precisely an on a regular basis incidence. For one other, except you’re Mariano Rivera or Kenley Jansen, the cutter is normally a complementary pitch. Sometimes, the purpose isn’t even to have a superb cutter; it’s only for the cutter to make different pitches look good.

As you learn on, you’ll be reminded again and again how interconnected the whole lot is: pitch combine, launch level, velocity, motion, method angle, deception, sequencing, framing. Pitching is a symphony. Even although including a brand new instrument didn’t flip anyone from a highschool jazz band to the London Symphony Orchestra, there are many attention-grabbing takeaways available. I’ve break up Team Cutter up right into a 5 teams so we will acknowledge some traits, and I’ve highlighted a number of the extra attention-grabbing gamers in every group.

Group 1: Enter/Return

This is essentially the most boring group, so we’re going to get it out of the way in which rapidly. Six of our gamers used to throw a cutter, dropped it completely or threw it so much much less, then introduced it again for the assault this season. Bringing again an outdated pitch simply isn’t attention-grabbing as including a very new one. In the desk under (and all of the tables prefer it), you’ll see the share of the time that every pitcher threw a cutter in 2022 and ’23, then you definately’ll see the year-over-year change in numerous metrics. Negative numbers are good, as they imply the pitcher is performing higher this season than they did final.

Look, we stay in a merciless and uncaring world. I do know it, you understand it, the Canadian wildfire smoke is aware of it. So when Mitch Keller obtained off to a sizzling begin throwing his cutter round 22% of the time, simply as he had from 2019 to ’21, there was just one doable consequence: Alex Eisert wrote about how the pitch was the key to his sizzling begin, and Keller instantly fell off a cliff. Before the article: 13 begins, 3.60 ERA, 3.16 FIP. After the article: 11 begins, 5.37 ERA, 4.90 FIP. Don’t really feel unhealthy, Alex. It occurs to all of us.

At this level, Keller isn’t that removed from the place he was final season by way of efficiency, however he’s getting there differently. His stroll, strikeout, and call high quality numbers have all improved, however hitters are elevating the ball extra typically, resulting in an elevated barrel fee and extra homers. Lance Brozdowski famous just lately that Keller’s launch level dropped a pair inches when the outcomes began to go south.

Could Keller’s resurrected cutter, now in live performance with the sweeper and slider he added in 2022, be what introduced him to a brand new degree in the beginning of the season, just for him to be dragged down by some type of minor damage, discomfort, or mechanical flaw? It’s doable, however for now it’s simply one thing to regulate.

Bryse Wilson tried out a cutter in April and May of final yr however ended up ditching it. After becoming a member of the Brewers this season, he moved to the bullpen, the place he gained a tick of velocity and raised his launch level by almost three inches. He ditched his slider and splitter and introduced again the cutter, throwing it roughly a 3rd of the time to each lefties and righties. Wilson is a brand new man this yr, knocking two runs off his ERA, almost half a run off his FIP, and roughly 50 factors off each his wOBA and xwOBA. But his groundball fee is approach down, and his xFIP is definitely increased than it was final yr. It positively looks like there’s some luck concerned in his elevated HR/FB fee. Still, it’s truthful to say that Wilson is a really totally different pitcher this season, and the cutter is a fairly large a part of that change.

Group 2: What Cutter?

Not each new pitch is a winner. Sometimes that cutter appears nice within the dressing room, however then you definately strive it throughout an enormous league sport and it makes your FIP look large. The subsequent 5 gamers began out the season with a cutter, then excised it from their repertoire. No, trimmed it from their repertoire. Sliced it. Snipped it. I’m undecided which phrase I’m searching for.

Jake Diekman is among the most fascinating gamers on this group. The White Sox launched him on May 6, after he’d run a 7.94 ERA and a 5.92 FIP over 13 appearances. Four days later, he signed with the Rays, and all of us requested ourselves precisely how a lot he’d enhance together with his new workforce. The reply? A complete lot: a 2.16 ERA and a 3.67 FIP with Tampa Bay.

Diekman threw his cutter 15.3% of the time with the Sox this yr. He has not thrown a single cutter since he joined the Rays, and he’s elevated his changeup use. But he hasn’t simply altered his pitch combine. His velocity has ticked up, and his launch level has modified fairly a bit:

It’s really a mixture of two elements: His arm angle is slightly bit decrease, and he’s standing additional to the left of the mound. Clearly, the Rays had a complete plan for how you can overhaul Diekman, they usually had been keen to look previous the truth that a few of our stats favored his cutter fairly a bit. Hopefully the White Sox had been taking notes.

We’ve coated Noah Syndergaard’s struggles fairly completely this season. He added a cutter in 2022, throwing it 1.6% of the time. This yr, he used it 19.4% of the time in April and May however didn’t throw all of it in his final look earlier than hitting the IL and being traded from the Dodgers to the Guardians. He’s used it 4.4% of the time over his two begins in Cleveland. Over at Baseball Prospectus, Craig Goldstein acknowledged a sample within the adjustments the Guardians have made, prioritizing swinging strikes by throwing extra four-seamers and breaking balls.

Chase Silseth has solely thrown 65 big-league innings in his complete profession, so earlier than I lay some stats in entrance of you, it’s important to promise to not take them critically. He had a 5.30 ERA and a 5.84 FIP over his first 9 appearances this yr, when he threw his cutter 22.2% of the time. Over his final three begins, he’s thrown it 1.2% of the time, successfully changing it together with his slider, and posted a 2.04 ERA and a 3.78 FIP. Remember, you promised.

Group 3: Too New To Know

There’s no regulation that claims it’s important to add your cutter on the very starting of the season. This group didn’t begin throwing their cutters till June, and none threw a pitch that was categorised as a cutter by Statcast throughout spring coaching both.

Matt Brash is essentially the most attention-grabbing identify on this record for a number of causes. With an enormous juicy hole between the motion profiles of his four-seamer and his slider, and with outcomes that weren’t fairly dwelling as much as the plain nastiness of his stuff, he was seen as a prime candidate so as to add a cutter final season. He began throwing the pitch in June, however has solely gone to it sporadically since then: simply 44 complete, and solely 5 have been put into play, three of them for singles.

It’s nonetheless truthful to surprise what Brash would appear to be if he made the pitch an everyday a part of his repertoire. That stated, his four-seamer and slider are each performing a lot better than they did final yr. His cutter solely charges a 78+ per Stuff+, and batters have a .418 wOBA in opposition to it. Since he added the pitch on June 4, his ERA has ticked down from 4.50 to 1.95, although his FIP stayed roughly the identical and his xFIP really obtained worse attributable to a rise in exit velocity and a lower in groundball fee.

That brings us to the subsequent attention-grabbing factor about Brash, which Michael Ajeto famous on Tuesday: the poor man has been getting BABIP’ed to loss of life. His DRA- of 66 is the third-best in baseball, however his .413 BABIP is the worst. Some of that is because of unhealthy luck, and a few appears to be attributable to a bent to induce the sort of weak contact that ends in dinks and dunks simply over the infield. Remember after I stated that his cutter had resulted in 5 balls in play, three of them singles? Here they’re, in all their tweener splendor.

Group 4: Speaking of Tweeners

Taxonomy is difficult. That’s why a tomato is a fruit. Some pitchers fall into easy-to-define classes, and a few find yourself within the junk drawer. This is our miscellaneous class. Feel free to rifle by way of it and take what you want.

Adam Ottavino threw a cutter 5.2% of the time in 2022 and is as much as 18.9% in ’23. It’s now his most important weapon in opposition to lefties, making up 34.6% of his pitch combine. He’s had higher outcomes in opposition to lefties as a result of he’s inducing extra groundballs, however he’s additionally strolling them far more typically and putting them out much less, which displeases the FIP gods. He’s additionally improved in opposition to lefties whereas faring worse in opposition to righties.

Julio Urías is an attention-grabbing take a look at case, as a result of he actually didn’t change something about his pitch combine aside from the cutter. He nonetheless throws a four-seamer, a slurve, and a changeup, however now he throws a cutter about 9% of the time. The pitch has carried out adequately, however the three others have gotten worse, significantly his changeup, which went from not nice final season to catastrophically unhealthy this yr. If I had been Urías, I could be fascinated about ditching the cutter. You know who appears to agree? Urías. He’s used the pitch simply 4.3% of the time in his two August begins. In what is nearly definitely a coincidence, these are his solely back-to-back scoreless begins of the season.

Clarke Schmidt added a cutter as a part of his a lot ballyhooed transfer from the bullpen to the beginning rotation this season. As you’ll be able to see from the desk above, he’s been nearly slightly bit worse by each metric. The cutter is now his major weapon in opposition to lefties, and it’s been completely cromulent, however his sweeper is performing a lot worse, and he’s roughly shelved the changeup that he used to throw to lefties. It’s onerous in charge something on Schmidt’s pitch combine, although, as a result of as many individuals have famous, his issues have a fairly clear connection to the instances by way of the order penalty:

Schmidt struggled to begin the season, however he’s righted the ship within the final couple months. The finish result’s that he’s proper round the place the underlying metrics say he ought to be. He’s additionally but to document an out within the seventh inning this season.

Group 5: Keep That Cutter

Our final group is our smallest. It consists of pitchers who’ve added a cutter whereas making actual enhancements. Congratulations, group. You’re the survivors.

Ryan Brasier shouldn’t actually be on this group. He added his cutter on June 27; not coincidentally, that was his second sport with the Dodgers after being launched by the Red Sox in May. According to Baseball Savant, he’d by no means thrown a cutter earlier than. He has thrown precisely 21 innings for every membership this season. Ready for some splits?

Brasier might have been due for some regression, however that is an insane turnaround. He is throwing his cutter 21.7% of the time with the Dodgers and is main with it in opposition to lefties, and it’s working. We’re speaking about some small samples right here, however the Dodgers appear to have dipped Brasier in magic waters. I’ll be curious to see what occurs subsequent.

Sonny Gray has had a cutter for many of his profession, however he’s by no means actually used it. Most seasons, it made up lower than 1% of his pitch combine. This yr, Stuff+ likes it fairly a bit, score it at 118. He’s utilizing it 20.5% of the time in opposition to righties, and he’s improved his efficiency in opposition to them dramatically; his .261 wOBA in opposition to them is tied for a profession low, and his 2.49 FIP and three.48 xFIP are each one of the best he’s put up in years. He additionally introduced again his changeup when he’s dealing with lefties, however sadly he’s been considerably worse in opposition to them this season.

In the tip, Gray is placing up one other robust season in a contract yr, and he simply got here in at seventh on Dan Szymborski’s record of 2024 ZiPS projection gainers. I gained’t dive too deeply into his cutter as a result of Esteban Rivera did so again in June. As required by regulation, Gray has run a 4.31 ERA since that article got here out, as in comparison with 2.37 earlier than it, however his FIP and xFIP have nonetheless been strong.

As with Sonny, the cutter has develop into Josiah Gray’s main weapon in opposition to lefties. He throws fastballs to lefties 1 / 4 of the time, down from 46.2% of the time in 2022. He’s main with the cutter and leaning extra on his slider and curve. As I wrote throughout spring coaching, this was a part of the plan. Gray’s four-seamer was lifeless final on our pitch leaderboard final yr, price -21 runs, in accordance with Baseball Savant’s run metrics, and it had a .481 wOBA in opposition to. (No, that’s not a typo.) Even if including a cutter didn’t enhance the efficiency of the four-seamer, simply changing it with a mediocre and even considerably unhealthy cutter would’ve been a win. The excellent news is that the cutter has carried out effectively, and the four-seamer, whereas nonetheless unhealthy, is not worst-pitch-in-baseball degree unhealthy.

This yr, a lot of Gray’s improved efficiency could be chalked as much as his HR/FB regressing from 18.6% to a extra affordable 10%. His xFIP and xERA are literally worse than they had been final yr, as he’s putting out fewer batters and strolling barely extra. But he has considerably elevated his popup fee and groundball fee and improved his hard-hit fee and barrel fee. Relying much less on strikeouts and extra on the batted ball profile makes him a extra unstable pitcher, and one who must carry on outperforming his FIP. Honestly, I’ve been checking in on him all yr with bated bread, ready for his ERA to balloon as much as match his FIP. It nonetheless hasn’t occurred, however I’m nonetheless not able to breathe a sigh of aid simply but.