Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/10/23

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

Jose Abreu: My again hurts, ought to I be afraid on Jon Singleton taking up?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not in severe jeopardy. ZiPS projections for Singleton aren’t nice, both

the man who asks the lunch query: what’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: some unsalted peanuts I occur to have right here

seth: that lorenzen highschool no hitters stat is fairly bonkers, huh?

Dan Szymborski: For these not conscious of the factoid, Fullerton Union highschool in California has had 4 pitchers throw no-hitters within the majors

Joe: Why is John Angelos? Like, why is he?

Dan Szymborski: Well, someday in fall of 1966, a daddy Angelos and a mommy Angelos…

Ryan: If Ohtani had theoretically been traded to a NL workforce on the deadline, how a lot consideration would he nonetheless have obtained for AL MVP?

Dan Szymborski: I feel he would have gotten a ton

Dan Szymborski: and was doubtless nonetheless the favourite given his edge

Dan Szymborski: After all, Sutcliffe received an NL Cy Young regardless of 15 begins within the AL

Dan Szymborski: and I guess present writers could be even much less absurdly technical about it

Kyle B: As a Yankees fan….Can fangraphs give me any hope for 2024 lol I don’t know the way something can actually change proper now

Dan Szymborski: Put it this fashion: completely nothing has gone proper and so they’re nonetheless on a tempo to win 83 video games

j: Hi Dan,  I’m curious as as to if or not Michael Busch’s latest sizzling stretch in aaa has been sufficient to maneuver the needle on his zips projections.  I discover it attention-grabbing that zips appears to (at the very least in accordance high the model posted day by day) favor the bat of Jonny DeLuca for the remainder of the season.

Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs doesn’t have a mechanism for minor league translations, so I’d be sus on gamers like Busch

Dan Szymborski: From the 7/15 batch run

Dan Szymborski:

Darb: Favorite non-FanGraphs baseball podcast?

Dan Szymborski: The Greatest Generation

Justin: Any ideas on why the Mets aren’t calling up Ronny Mauricio?

Dan Szymborski: I feel it got here from wanting to offer Baty first dibs whereas they labored on Mauricio in third and left

Dan Szymborski: which is clearly not as a lot a difficulty now

Walton Dilcox: To be an excellent, lengthy lasting participant on this league….how essential is it to play protection and hit onerous flyballs? More than ever?

Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely essential! Though most gamers in the event that they’re ok at one thing else can compensate for not being good at one thing essential

Tacoby Bellsbury: Is Jose Ramirez KOing Tim Anderson baseball’s Buster Douglas second?

Dan Szymborski: Tim Anderson’s type was actually disappointing

Dan Szymborski: He must have had a attain benefit over Ramirez which he didn’t use in any respect

Dan Szymborski: and that was a tragic implementation of a peek-a-boo protection!

Dan Szymborski: and that stance…

D: What does ZIPS consider Cedanne Rafaela? He’s hit very well in AAA this 12 months–has that moved the needle on his future? And what does it consider his OF protection, if something?

Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely a threat. final batch run had him at .256/.290/.413 for 2024

Dan Szymborski: Because of the crappiness of the minor league knowledge, ZiPS is barely calling him a +4 defender in CF proper now

Walton Dilcox: McClanahan could also be in line for a second TJ. I hear on the heckscape that’s the web this surgical procedure is so protected and gamers ought to simply “get it out of the way.” Are sports followers simply shedding their minds?

Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s a “coming to terms” mechanism

Andruw Monasterio: Am I a long-term piece of the Brewers infield now?

Dan Szymborski: Whiel I wouldn’t go that far, there’s much more motive to love Monasterio than a 12 months in the past. And the Brewers definitely will journey him so long as the great occasions final

Darb: I used to be going to ask which deadline purchaser goes to have probably the most regret, nevertheless it’s the Angels, isn’t it?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

Dan Szymborski: Giolito was a very good pickup — that doesn’t look like figuring out

Dan Szymborski: But the remaining was lackluster

Dan Szymborski: I imply Cron? He hasn’t been good in two years

Dan Szymborski: Anyone actually assume Grichuk was going to stick with it?

Hopeless Drury Fan: Thanks for the chat at the moment Dan!
For the previous 3 years (practically 1,000 PA), Brandon Drury has posted a xwOBA 30+ factors decrease than his wOBA. Is this luck or a talent that’s not captured properly by xwOBA in your humble opinion?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t labored with the predictive worth of xwOBA since I do my very own factor, however three years counsel some kind of talent

Dan Szymborski: For instance, ZiPS routinely takes zBABIP far much less significantly with Paul Goldschmidt

Dan Szymborski: zStats have finished higher with Drury

Dan Szymborski:

Aiden: What is the method for changing into a FanGraphs contributor?

Dan Szymborski: It varies

Dan Szymborski: Every few years, we do have an open hiring course of, which is the very best guess for many

Dan Szymborski: And for the others, fill a particular want

Dan Szymborski: like when Kevin Goldstein left the Astros

tz: Would it’s attainable to do a ZiPS projection on Ozzie Albies, however solely utilizing his stats hitting right-handed?

Dan Szymborski: *most likely* however I’m probably not arrange for it

fanoftheman: within the historical past of zips, what single change to your methodology made the most important distinction in enhancing the accuracy of the projections?

Dan Szymborski: Revamping minor league translations within the late 00s

Dan Szymborski: The first couple years I used James’ MLE course of

Dan Szymborski: nevertheless it was actually outdated

Dan Szymborski: and I had a *lot* extra knowledge to work with than he did in 1984

fanoftheman: I do know the Cardinals protection is unhealthy, however what the heck is up with the babip they’re permitting? If the season ended at the moment, they’d have the second worst non-Coors BABIP allowed since 2000. Some of that must be unhealthy luck, proper?

Dan Szymborski: *Some* however there’s much more Jordan Walker and so much much less Harrison Bader this 12 months in comparison with final!@

James: Given Dana Brown’s latest feedback, what are the expectations for a Tucker extension? Would 9/250 be aggressive?

Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless have ZiPS open

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS suggests 9/220

Dan Szymborski: however I don’t know if he would signal that

Dan Szymborski: and guess he wouldn’t

Dan Szymborski: What’s working towards him is that he’s a non-transcendent nook outfielder who is just not hitting the market tremendous yougn

Ethan: first, I wished to forged a vote for ‘z’ stat leaderboards/extra frequent updates. I discover them very attention-grabbing to have a look at.
second, I used to be questioning if the batted ball knowledge (particularly fly balls) is park adjusted in any capability? Could atmosphere assist clarify a number of the zHR beneath and overachievers?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I calculate zStats residence and away and have park components the identical as common gamers

Jose’s Right Hook: Have you run ZiPS profession projections for gamers that couldn’t exist, simply to see what they’d appear to be? Talking about progressions for somebody who hits .500, a batter who by no means strikes out, ect.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means actually made up gamers on this approach, although I assume I may

The Dorothy Zbornaks: Are we nonetheless doing a fantasy soccer league this 12 months?

Dan Szymborski: Hey SJ, yeah, I’ll set it up this weekend

DD: Working on an article for my web site:

Do you assume that the banning of the shift has improved some gamers defensive metrics this season? ( Baez, Witt Jr., and Franco)…sufficient causation/correlation?

Dan Szymborski: It’s *attainable* however I haven’t regarded immediately at it and I don’t wish to wild-guess

Colton: Do you could have any recommendation for somebody that’s considering starting a baseball writing weblog of their very own?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t write about numbers. Write tales that make the most of numbers.

Dan Szymborski: Which I do know is humorous since my items this week are actually writing *about* numbers

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t try this lots of these

James: Is employees ace JP France a legit center rotation man?

Dan Szymborski: I t hink he *can* be however I’m not fairly there but as he’s received a very small margin of error for what he’s finished

Darb: Favorite non-FanGraphs baseball podcast?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually hearken to many baseball podcasts as a result of I have already got an enormous baseball overload

Dan Szymborski: I principally hearken to podcasts that contain humor, vehicles, or online game nerdery

Springer: lastly homered final evening for the primary time in a month nevertheless it left the bat at 96 mph. anxious about growing old right here but?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been

Royals fan: KC misplaced a run as a result of a ball received caught in a lightbulb in Fenway, then misplaced the sport by one run. I feel I’m finished with 2023. (This is just not a query.)

Dan Szymborski: Look, even the baseballs don’t wish to be at a Royals sport

captainjameshook: I do know Greinke’s on the IL now however, assuming he comes again, and with nothing else to play for this 12 months, shouldn’t the Royals let him play all 9 positions in a sport and let him go for his quest for 10 profession HRs and SBs? Is there a petition we will begin?

Dan Szymborski: That could be enjoyable

AL Lifer: Now that we now have the common DH, how lengthy earlier than postseason awards are mixed between the 2 leagues?

Dan Szymborski: I feel that’s unlikely for now

Appa Yip Yip: Have you performed Baldur’s Gate 3 but?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve not

Does Chewbacca use TP?: What do ZIPS take into consideration Yoan Mondada? Is there any hope for a 2024 rebound, or is he in DFA territory…has one 12 months left at a reasonably sizable quantity…

Dan Szymborski: Last verify he’s at .243/.324/.400, 1.7 WAR in 111 projected video games in 2024

Appa Yip Yip: In honour of José Bautista happening the Blue Jays degree of excellence this Saturday I wish to reiterate my perception that his bat flip in 2015 was a watershed second for the game with reference to gamers celebrating and having enjoyable. Joey’s bat flew so Soto may shuffle.

John Mozeliak: will you do a john angelos vs kevin brown wwe match?

Dan Szymborski: The downside is that MLB the Show dominates a number of sport taking part in this time of the 12 months

Dan Szymborski: if I make a wrestling matchup, it’ll be Anderson and Ramirez

Key Flaw: 5 man rotations are there to guard pitcher’s arms, however with the quantity of throwing in between is it actually completely different than a 4 man rotation? Is there knowledge concerning the results of 4 vs 5 man rotations? Or is it simply “it could be really bad and we don’t want to risk destroying arms to test it out”?

Dan Szymborski: The factor is that the information suck

Dan Szymborski: And it’s a kind of issues that groups don’t wish to check since you don’t actually have a situation when you possibly can check with out costing careers and your workforce a whole lot of hundreds of thousands of {dollars}

TomBruno23: On this, the day after Michael Lorenzen’s no-hitter and as a reminder to Mike Warren, let’s keep in mind that Bud Smith, with a profession file of 7-8, tossed a 134 pitch no hitter at San Diego on September 3, 2001.

fantasy soccer: can I be part of? ; p

Dan Szymborski: This is the previous Baseball Primer Fantasy Football League. We’ve been happening since 2001.

CM: If you’re the Orioles this offseason, do you commerce a number of of Hays, Mountcastle, or Santander to make room for Kjerstad and probably Mayo?  Of the three, who’s the one that you just assume the Orioles ought to most preserve?

Dan Szymborski: I’d favor to hold onto Hays than the opposite two, however who I’d preserve would come all the way down to who’s being traded

Appa Yip Yip: Rather than make gamers up it could be enjoyable to run ZiPS projections for gamers in previous NES baseball video games. How would Sleve McDichel fare in at the moment’s excessive velo atmosphere?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve really made a ZiPS Playoff Edition hack of RBI Baseball earlier than. Lemme see if I can discover it

Dan Szymborski:

Alex Remington: I’d wish to ask you an identical query I requested Ben Clemens about Bryce Elder:

Despite the whole lot – his Tiffany-blue baseball savant web page, his having given up seven runs in three of his final 5 begins, and then again additionally All-Star choice – primarily based on his first 22 main league begins, Bryce Elder *appears* like he’ll settle in as a reasonably good 4/5 starter, someplace in between Jon Niese and Dillon Gee. Is that honest?

Dan Szymborski: I feel it’s attainable he does even higher than that

Dan Szymborski: In the 7/15 batch run of ZiPS, Elder was as much as twenty third in five-year WAR

Ren Kosenthal: Gun to your head who wins NL CY?

Dan Szymborski: Gallen

Key Flaw: Going to the true University of Maryland, we at all times mentioned UMBC stood for “U made a bad choice”. You went to Loyola, proper? Did you could have issues like that for UMBC or different schools?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really recall something like that

Dan Szymborski: I used to be fairly busy with alcohol and getting stoned

Key Flaw: Have you tried Old World? It is meant to be like CivIV (the very best Civ) however modernized.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen it however I’ve not performed it

Kyle: ZiPS has underestimated how good the Orioles could be the final two years by rather a lot. My query is: why do you could have such a bias towards Baltimore and the place do you assume it got here from? There will be no different rationalization, particularly random variance.

Dan Szymborski: lol

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, ZiPS doesn’t have any simple to seek out systemic bias

Dan Szymborski: which is simply too unhealthy, as a result of I’d love some low-hanging fruit to get a lift in accuracy

John Mozeliak: talking of mlb the present, have you ever gone through the negro leagues storylines?  edutainment!

Dan Szymborski: I’ve, it was a number of enjoyable!

Ethan: How a lot inventory do you/zips put in minor league protection when projecting MLB WAR? I do know you’ve talked about a having a totalzone-esque stat for minors however do you regress it so much?

Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, it’s regresse da ton

Dan Szymborski: I accomplished the NL storyline fairly shortly

Dan Szymborski: and I’ve all of the Programs finished aside from the July Awards which simply dropped an the Extreme program, which is totally merciless

Dan Szymborski: I’m at 58% in Extreme. I nonetheless have two XP awards to get one other 15% (5,000 and 10,000 with Marte, Piazza, Wagner, Cain)

Dan Szymborski: And then one other 10% within the two remaining stat quests (I’ve finished Marte and Wagner, however simply unlocked Piazza and at 1 HR of 15 and I don’t have Cain but)

Dan Szymborski: Which’ll put me at 83% and the remaining I’m going to must grind out over time as a result of there aren’t any extra Extreme Moments that I can do, and I’m touching the Conquest or Showdown

Dan Szymborski: I may try this

Appa Yip Yip: Is Davis Schneider the opening day 2b for the Jays subsequent season? Sample dimension be damned he’s 5’9 and hit a ball filter of Fenway.

Dan Szymborski: He’s definitely making his case

Exit Hits: Jose Altuve has outperformed his xwoba in virtually yearly for the reason that launch of the stat. Is there some property that enables hitters to take care of above anticipated numbers or is it dumb luck?

Dan Szymborski: There are properties that might trigger a participant to do this

Dan Szymborski: xwOBA isn’t designed to be overly advanced actually

Dan Szymborski: I assume I ought to pull up zStat once more? I don’t have these all memorized

Dan Szymborski: OK, simply checked the whole lot

Dan Szymborski: zStats has underrated ALtuve too. 295/359/473 vs. 308/373/500. ZiPS naturally believes his line a bit greater than for the typical participant

Guest: If the Padres make the playoffs, does Ha-Seong Kim get any MVP votes?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

v2micca: If the Pirates are aggressive with Paul Skenes and he will get a style of the Majors in 2024, is zips bullish or bearish on his 2024 numbers?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have ’em but!

Darb: Is Hader going to get $120 million?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to say no

v2micca: Considering the truth that banning the shift appears to have completed the targets of the commissioner’s workplace, do you assume much more restrictive defensive positioning guidelines could possibly be a risk?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Fangraphs projections nonetheless see the Rays as favorites to win the AL east. A sure left handed beginning pitcher disagrees. What does ZIPs assume?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has the O’s the favourite

Dan Szymborski: It’s frequently been 3-4 video games increased on O’s than FG projections for the reason that begin of the 12 months

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Feels good seeing the Yankees and Red Sox on the backside of the AL east. A plague on each your homes!

Michael Freaking Lorenzen: Have I improved my outlook sufficient this 12 months to warrant a sizeable multi-year FA contract? Or will I be again within the 1 12 months/5-10mil vary come this offseason?  Topline (and no-no) look nice, however peripherals solely barely higher than 2022.

Dan Szymborski: Lorenzen must get an honest deal, however no one’s going loopy

TomBruno23: So…Jordan Walker…what sort of wRC+ does he must put up to be able to compensate for the entire different baseball issues that he doesn’t achieve this properly?

Dan Szymborski: Depends the place they play him

Dan Szymborski: The protection is an actual drag

Dan Szymborski: If he’s taking part in a nook, he might have a 125 wRC+ to be a league-average participant or so

Key Flaw: Kevin Brown is the primary Orioles announcer that I appreciated as a lot as Jon Miller. Is that irony or applicable given what has occurred?

Dan Szymborski: heh

TomBruno23: Along with that Greinke be aware, actually hoping the Cardinals let Wainwright hit on October 1 in his final MLB sport.

Ballywoop: Jays or Mariners down the stretch

Dan Szymborski: Jays

J: Does ZiPS imagine in Owen Caissie? Feels like a main ZiPS high 100 candidate the place his efficiency for his age is insane however scouts are much less eager.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is just not eager on Caissie but

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t like his 2022

Dan Szymborski: and southern league is excessive offense and smokies stadium is an excellent HR park

Guest: It actually appears to be like just like the Astros have to discover a option to get Diaz’s bat within the lineup extra. If you got the flexibility to set the Astros lineup daily, which of those gamers would see probably the most discount in begins to get Diaz extra PT: Maldonaldo, Abreu, Dubon, or Meyers? If Dusty does play Diaz extra, I believe the PT will come from Meyers.

Dan Szymborski: Maldonado

Dan Szymborski: I do know pitchers love him

Dan Szymborski: however there are limits right here

Re: Strategy Games: have you ever performed XCOM? in that case, which is your favourite model. I received XCOM 2 lately for the reason that bundle was 90% off on steam

Dan Szymborski: Just the unique, which was as lot of enjoyable on the time!

Dan Szymborski: Microprose was one of many few corporations that’s at all times an automated purchase from me it doesn’t matter what

Dan Szymborski: And I received to see their workplaces a number of occasions! They have been in the identical constructing as my mother’s workplace was within the 90s

Dan Szymborski: Falcom is one other firm from which I’ll reflexively purchase video games

Wireless Joe Jackson: Bobby Witt is as much as 4 WAR and a 110 wRC+ and nonetheless underperforming his xwOBA by 35 factors.  Which if any under-25 shortstops would you continue to favor to him?

Dan Szymborski: Wander/McLain

Dan Szymborski: that’s it

Guest: I’m so upset that Kevin Brown isn’t that Kevin Brown.

Dan Szymborski: If he was that Kevin Brown, you’d see so much much less media stick up for him, sadly

Bravesfan: How for actual is Orlando Arcia? Can he preserve a BABIP of over 330?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume my opinions have a lot modified since I wrote this

G: What do the Braves do with Vaughn Grissom. .Another 12 months in AAA looks like a waste

Dan Szymborski: I feel he’s traded

Jon: Why does the pitcher level up on a fly ball? That doesn’t assist anybody.

Dan Szymborski: It’s at all times value testing to see if actuality has been altered and finger weapons at the moment are actual weapons

JC: You’re not the prospect man, however… Coming up, Arraez had miniscule Ok charges however had a 60 FV hit device. Was the priority high quality of contact or proximity to the majors?

Dan Szymborski: Basically, no one appreciated him a lot exterior hit device

Dan Szymborski: He was really eighth in rest-of-career WAR for 2B in 2019 ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: Though some others positively didn’t work out

Dan Szymborski: Luis Urias was 2, Hampson was 7!

Zach: How freaking good is Jackson Holliday going to be as soon as he utterly fills out his physique?

Dan Szymborski: Damn

TomBruno23: If it was that Kevin Brown you’d additionally see him stick up for himself and inform John Angelos to stay it up himself.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: My girl buddy has lately been invited by a dude to play board video games. It’s not the man I’m involved about. What do I do if she begins bringing residence board video games? Is divorce too excessive?

Dan Szymborski: Play them?

Domingo: It’s not “if I’m the Pirates”, it’s “if I WERE there pirates”.

TomBruno23: Today in Immaculate Grid I remembered Jeff Manto. I’ve to imagine you could have fond recollections of his 0.7 bWAR season for the 1995 Orioles.

Dan Szymborski: Jeff Manto’s bat was well-liked (his protection much less so)

Dan Szymborski: Lemme pull up his minor league translations actual fast earlier than I am going

Rick: Looking for a brand new online game. I’m not an excessive amount of of online game man. One each couple or few years. I’ve loved RDR2 and Witcher 3 previously. Thinking that Diablo one, perhaps. Any solutions? PS4

Dan Szymborski: Diablo 4 is enjoyable!

Dan Szymborski: Though I discover myself operating by the Falcom Trails video games once more for the reason that English translation of Reverie got here out and I’m a Falcom obsessee

Appa Yip Yip: If she brings residence Catan you gotta run. Everything else it’s best to play.

lyhe: been loving your zStats Validation articles! how onerous do you assume regression will have an effect on HSKim’s batting? He’s my favorite participant to look at this season

Dan Szymborski: he’s most likely not THIS good, however I don’t assume it’s loopy to assume he’d be a 110-120 man frequently

Dan Szymborski: and I’ve to confess for private curiosity, I’m not sad that he’s damaged out as a result of I received a number of shit for the 2021 projection that didn’t work out

Vector: Have you performed Gloomhaven? Been taking part in a marketing campaign with two pals on PC and it’s a blast.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve not

Board Game Engine: What’s your go to on-line board sport engine? Tabletop Simulator? Board Game Arena? A unique one? onerous to play board video games if you reside nowhere close to your pals who play

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have one as a result of I don’t have the precise mix of pals. THey principally didn’t play board video games

Dan Szymborski: and it’s troublesome for a 45-year-old man to seek out new board sport buddies

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: (Manto

Dan Szymborski: On that be aware, it’s time for me to hit the dusty ol’ path

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everybody! Until subsequent time!