Kyle Tucker: The Man and His Dream Contract

The Astros presently rank third within the American League in runs scored — not an unusual sight for a franchise that has solely been outscored by the Dodgers and Red Sox over the past decade. But they’ve performed it with a lineup with some fairly huge holes, with half of their eight gamers with no less than 300 plate appearances this season posting an OBP underneath .300. The workforce’s offense has been pushed this yr primarily by 4 gamers: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Chas McCormick, with an help from Yainer Diaz. A yr in the past, Houston signed Alvarez to a six-year, $115 million contract extension that ensured he would stay on the town till the tip of the 2028 season. Tucker, although, doesn’t have a long-term deal and is scheduled to hit free company after the 2025 season. What would a doable deal appear like?

There’s actually curiosity from the Astros’ facet, as there should be. The workforce has mentioned an extension with Tucker previously, although there are no lively talks proper now. But basic supervisor Dana Brown did use his weekly radio spot partially to debate making Tucker an “Astro for life,” so some form of deal coming collectively is hardly implausible.

Based on franchise historical past, being one in every of Houston’s stars doesn’t essentially grant a ton of leverage in the case of touchdown huge contract extensions. Jose Altuve signed a seven-year, $163.5 million deal earlier than the 2018 season, however that is still the biggest contract in workforce historical past. The Astros didn’t take part in any bidding wars for earlier stars like George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Gerrit Cole, assured of their farm system changing the misplaced expertise. And that confidence has not been misplaced, because the franchise has a great document graduating minor league prospects to the majors. Even Justin Verlander’s sudden, beautiful return a few weeks in the past concerned the Mets paying nearly all of his remaining wage.

Tucker has actually earned a giant payday. Since grabbing the a full-time spot within the lineup in 2020, he’s hit .280/.351/.516 with a wRC+ of 137. That’s ok to rank fifth in baseball amongst outfielder in WAR, at 15.1, behind solely Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, and Ronald Acuña Jr. This yr, Tucker’s on monitor to hit the five-WAR mark for the primary time. He’s even confirmed progress as a hitter, which should serve him properly as he ages; he’s already a single stroll from matching his profession excessive and has concurrently reduce a 3rd of his strikeouts from his rookie season.

Let’s see what imply ol’ Grandpa ZiPS thinks:

In my chat final week, I discussed ZiPS suggesting 9 years and $220 million as an inexpensive extension for Tucker, however that was additionally from the beginning of the season. If he had been a free agent, this projection suggests a nine-year, $284 million extension (or $265 million over eight years). Tucker clearly isn’t a free agent, and his subsequent two years — the more than likely finest seasons remaining in his profession — can be underneath workforce management. ZiPS expects the distinction between what he would get in free company the subsequent two years versus what he’s prone to get in arbitration as about $40 million, taking it to a nine-year, $244 million deal. Hurting Tucker’s possibilities of hitting the $300 million threshold is the straightforward indisputable fact that whereas he’s not as previous as Judge was when he hit free company, he’s additionally going to be 29 initially of his new contract, not a mid-20s phenom like Soto or Manny Machado.

Would the Astros try this deal? I’m unsure, since we’re speaking an $80 million bump over their largest deal thus far, and that’s far more years than the workforce is often comfy with. A six-year deal comes out at $176 million, in the identical ballpark as Altuve’s deal (which runs out after 2024). It’s greater than Alvarez bought, however in that case, the workforce was in a position to lock up a deal earlier than the slugger bought to arbitration and so had significantly extra leverage.

But on this case, I’m not optimistic that the Astros wouldn’t come to such a deal, both, particularly if we’re speaking six or seven years. They’ve let gamers stroll earlier than, however Tucker’s free company would come a yr after Altuve and Bregman attain the tip of their offers; even when they stick with the group, their subsequent contracts will most likely cowl their declines (nearly actually for the previous). That’s an terrible lot of offensive manufacturing to interchange rapidly. When Springer was in his arbitration years, the Astros knew Alvarez and Tucker had been coming; I don’t see anybody within the group proper now that matches that function. I feel there’s an actual probability that when Brown expressed an curiosity in maintaining Tucker on the workforce for the long run, it was greater than the standard fan-friendly soundbites that each public-facing entrance workplace member is aware of easy methods to do by coronary heart.

Whatever occurs, the Astros have an elite nook outfielder in Tucker, and he’ll receives a commission a phenomenally massive variety of {dollars} for his skills quickly. Whether Jim Crane is paying it, we’ll have to attend awhile to search out out.