This Is Your Often Scheduled Lars Nootbaar Hype Post

There haven’t been a variety of shiny spots in St. Louis this yr. The Cardinals are 14 video games under .500, homeowners of the second-worst document within the NL. The backside has fallen out for the franchise in a approach that hasn’t occurred in 30 years. I’d hardly blame followers for being a bit checked out; it’s exhausting to search for silver linings when the rain cloud is that this darkish.

If you’re so inclined, although, there are at all times issues to be optimistic about. The apparent one: the Cardinals’ offense has carried out at a excessive stage regardless of the poor outcomes. They have an mixture 111 wRC+ on the yr, the fifth-best in baseball, and underlying statistics that match that. As at all times in St. Louis, it’s an ensemble affair, however three stars stand out atop the WAR leaderboard: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Lars Nootbaar.

Wait, Lars Nootbaar? I do know what you’re pondering: I’m the chairman of the Nootbaar Nutbar fanclub, and my preposterously biased take needs to be ignored. But the leaderboards don’t lie: He’s tied with Arenado for essentially the most WAR on the workforce, and that’s regardless of a 100-PA deficit attributable to early-season damage points. He has one of the best wRC+ on the squad. It’s not simply smoke and mirrors; Statcast thinks he deserves the overwhelming majority of his manufacturing.

In reality, let’s take it only one step additional. Nootbaar has flown below the radar on a variety of broad sweeps of one of the best gamers in baseball due to two issues: he’s not taking part in at a best-in-game stage, and he’s missed a variety of time with damage. That places him within the neighborhood, WAR-leaderboard-wise, with guys who play extra however aren’t nearly as good on a fee foundation. He’s tied with Luis Arraez, Christian Walker, and Bryson Stott, simply to call a couple of, for 2023 WAR, however he’s performed lower than any of these guys. So let’s ignore well being, only for a minute.

Over the previous two years, Aaron Judge has been one of the best hitter in baseball, each outright and on a per-600 PA foundation. After that, it’s one famous person after one other: Jose Altuve, Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts… I may go on and on. To be clear, I don’t suppose Nootbaar is knocking on the door of that tier. But let’s take a look at the subsequent slice down, hitters 16–30:

There are a variety of nice gamers right here, together with a couple of surprises. But my level is that this: by manufacturing on a fee foundation, Nootbaar has been proper up on the prime of the league over his final two years. Now, should you’ll allow me a digression, let’s speak about how he bought right here earlier than deciding if it’s fluky or sustainable.

If you desire a good comparability for Nootbaar as a prospect, suppose Steven Kwan. That won’t make a variety of sense to you within the current: Kwan is 5-foot-9 and appears like a longshot to submit a double-digit dwelling run season; Nootbaar is 6-foot-3 and repeatedly posts top-shelf exit velocities. They’re fairly clearly completely different gamers. But after they have been every drafted in 2018, that they had very comparable profiles.

Nootbaar performed throughout three ranges in 2019, and Kwan was in High-A the entire season. But check out their mixture seasons:

Sure, Nootbaar confirmed barely extra dwelling run energy. But Kwan made up for it in doubles, they usually had strikingly comparable traces general. They each walked so much, and neither struck out very a lot. Both have been plus nook outfielders who may pretend it in middle; to be honest, Nootbaar was typically listed as a primary baseman, however he performed the outfield virtually solely in school.

If you think about developing within the minor leagues with Kwan-type manufacturing however an influence hitter’s body, you possibly can suppose by how his recreation developed. You want phenomenal plate self-discipline to stroll so much with out placing out a lot with that type of offense; pitchers received’t be afraid of you, so your walks will come as a consequence of taking every little thing you presumably can. And that thread has been a relentless as Nootbaar moved up the ranks; he takes a fully monumental quantity of pitches, whether or not balls or strikes.

That slap-hitting model of Nootbaar doesn’t exist anymore, because of years of working to enhance his swing pace. But should you checked out his main league profession, it was clear to see that it was nonetheless there below the hood. Nootbaar didn’t prefer to swing, when push got here to shove, at the same time as he was making higher contact.

Hitting doesn’t occur in a vacuum, and pitchers get to react to hitters’ altering abilities. As Nootbaar picked up energy, pitchers began working him down within the zone to keep away from letting him get a ball within the air. He’s seeing extra pitches within the decrease third of the strike zone than ever, and fewer within the prime third.

Early within the season, that method tied Nootbaar in knots. As I’ve already talked about, he actually doesn’t prefer to swing. He’s extra passive than selective at occasions; solely Juan Soto swings at fewer pitches than Nootbaar, however Soto swings much less ceaselessly at balls and extra ceaselessly at strikes, as a result of he’s freaking Juan Soto. No one — nobody in any respect — has a decrease zone swing fee.

In my thoughts, it labored like this: Nootbaar realized the type of pitches he may clobber, and since he’s at all times been a wait-em-out hitter, he got here up with a plan: search for his pitch, and don’t swing if it isn’t there. That goal space was, roughly, pitches center and up. On pitches within the backside third of the strike zone, he swung solely 37.7% of the time, an enormous decline from his earlier profession fee. That’s as a result of, in my estimation, he set his sights increased for the primary time to make the most of his newfound energy.

Hear me out, although: it’s dangerous to swing so occasionally at pitches within the strike zone. It offers pitchers too straightforward of a goal, and it places you in dangerous conditions. Those are hittable pitches; even should you’re not popping homers on them, there are many line drive singles and doubles available. You may suppose it’s exhausting to have among the finest chase charges in baseball, a piddling 6% swinging-strike fee, and nonetheless strike out 22% of the time. But you are able to do it! All you must do is take sufficient pitches to finish up in 1–2 and 0–2 holes all day. The first half of this yr was a disappointment; a 108 wRC+ remains to be good, but it surely’s hardly what Nootbaar hoped for.

Now comes the second half of this story: Nootbaar has been on an absolute tear for the reason that All-Star break, and he’s executed it by hitting the snot out of the ball. I’m speaking a few .283 ISO, up from .123 within the first half, and 7 homers in 118 plate appearances. He’s additionally placing out far lower than earlier than and strolling simply as ceaselessly. The consequence has been a scalding 185 wRC+ within the final month or so, and whereas that’s clearly unsustainable, a man strolling as typically as he strikes out and barreling the ball at an above-average fee goes to be an incredible hitter.

This is generally the a part of certainly one of my articles the place I’d inform you in regards to the one neat trick that has remodeled his recreation. There’s only one drawback: I don’t suppose there’s one. Let’s take a look at a couple of numbers earlier than and after the All-Star break:

You can throw within the Pam meme right here in order for you; these are the identical numbers. He’s hitting the ball exhausting barely much less ceaselessly, however his common exit velocity on balls he hits within the air — those the place that statistic issues most — are steady. Basically, his dangerous contact has gotten slightly worse, however his good contact has gotten slightly higher (barrel fee, basically), and the web consequence means little for his xwOBA on contact. I feel it’s a greater form of manufacturing; I don’t notably care how exhausting he hits his grounders, and if and when his line drive fee stabilizes, the more moderen information is extra promising. But for essentially the most half, Nootbaar stays a robust hitter on contact, identical to he was within the first half of the yr.

The plate self-discipline stuff is extra of the identical. He hasn’t modified what he’s doing, a minimum of not likely. He’s began to swing barely extra at low strikes, but it surely’s not like he’s having a ton of success in opposition to them; I feel that’s largely about preserving pitchers sincere. It seems to me that he’s executed that not by making a concerted effort to swing extra, however merely by decreasing his goal a bit. That’s a neat little change, but it surely’s not far more than shuffling deck chairs. The key particulars of his recreation are nonetheless extraordinarily comparable.

That’s a humorous factor about baseball evaluation: the outputs have modified so much, however the inputs are shockingly comparable. Which one is the true Nootbaar? They each are, however then neither of them are: the true Nootbaar is the mixture of the 2. I used to be at all times shocked by his strikeout numbers early within the season and thought they’d stabilize downwards; likewise, his second-half dwelling run tempo hardly appears credible for a man hitting so many grounders.

Let’s consider this from a much bigger image. What’s the cope with Nootbaar? He has two carrying instruments on offense: persistence and energy. He’s but to discover a joyful medium between them, although the intermediate step remains to be producing glorious offensive numbers. The outdated Nootbaar remains to be there, working counts and working excessive OBPs to offset his lack of ability to make impactful contact. The new Nootbaar is attempting to membership pitches for dwelling runs and nonetheless understanding which pitches are finest for that.

These are actually exhausting abilities to synchronize, and much more sophisticated when you think about them within the context of opposing pitchers. How many pitches are you able to afford to take whereas ready for the precise one you’re hoping to bop into the appropriate area seats? How prepared do you have to be to open up your goal zone early within the depend, probably dropping into walk-hostile counts in pursuit of dingers? Stitching this model collectively on the main league stage is simpler mentioned than executed.

My learn of this season: we’ve got a fairly good thought of what a baseline Nootbaar consequence appears like going ahead. The decline in exhausting contact is a little bit of an phantasm; it’s simply one other approach of claiming that he’s hitting extra grounders this yr whereas his swing remains to be geared to place the ball within the air. The walks and strikeouts really feel regular. His BABIP in all probability received’t be as excessive because it was this yr, but it surely in all probability received’t be as little as it was final yr. If you informed me that Nootbaar’s future was as a 120 wRC+ type of hitter — a really poor man’s Soto — I feel I’d imagine you.

The fascinating half is extrapolating what may occur as he begins to additional hone his recreation. His plan from final yr — anticipate one thing up and tattoo it — in all probability received’t preserve working now that pitchers realize it’s coming. He will get to regulate to their adjustment now, although. One potential change: he may try and adapt his swing to hit low pitches with extra authority. To some extent, I’m speaking about placing slightly uppercut into it, however I’m additionally imagining a swing tailor-made for line drives on low pitches and fly balls on excessive ones. Mis-hit grounders on low pitches are dragging his line down, so why not regulate your swing a bit extra to these balls and attempt to sky them?

Another potential change: he may lean into the ability side and settle for extra strikeouts as a consequence. To be sincere with you, that’s a boring change. There are a variety of hitters with that normal profile already, and I feel that it wouldn’t be an incredible match; the hesitance to swing appears extra constructed into Nootbaar’s recreation than the ability at this level. But you possibly can think about a model of him that finally ends up as an off-brand Cody Bellinger, or one thing alongside these traces.

Either approach, I’m fairly excited to see the subsequent evolution in Nootbaar’s recreation. This season offers me much more confidence that he’s going to be a wonderful participant. How precisely that excellence manifests itself? I’m excited to seek out out.

All statistics on this article are present by video games of August 13.