The Padres Have a Difficult Future

Padres followers in 2023 don’t have a ton to be enthusiastic about. The Friars have been in win-now mode for the final 4 seasons and are staring down their second shedding marketing campaign throughout that span. One of the 2 successful seasons was type of ruined — for everybody on the planet — by a raging pandemic, leaving followers with just one yr that was each regular and an pleasant expertise since 2010. Unlike a whole lot of groups with the same efficiency file, it’s not for lack of funding within the workforce. Just a couple of months after the large commerce that introduced Juan Soto to city, the workforce signed Xander Bogaerts to a $280 million contract and saved Manny Machado from opting out with an excellent spicier $350 million pact. The Padres additionally agreed on a $100 million contract for Joe Musgrove and locked up Yu Darvish for $108 million. That’s greater than $800 million, so we’re not speaking concerning the case of, say, the White Sox having points partially as a result of they couldn’t be bothered to fill big holes within the lineup as a result of that will have required cash.

As gloomy because the season feels proper now, there are nonetheless reputable causes to suppose the Padres are an excellent baseball workforce. Their 68–54 Pythagorean file is 10 wins above their precise file, and data derived from run differential are extra predictive than win-loss file. The projections all nonetheless agree there’s lots to love and equally have an excellent file, comparatively talking, of predicting the long run. And this holds true even when speaking about groups with the most important disagreement between the projections and the file. Looking on the 25 groups that FanGraphs like higher than their seasonal successful share probably the most, coin flips missed their rest-of-season successful percentages by a mean of 86 factors, season to-date data by 81 factors, and FanGraphs data by 65 factors. Those 25 groups had performed .396 ball by way of August 14 of their seasons; FanGraphs projected a .476 RoS successful share, and the precise RoS successful share for these groups was .458. We weren’t imagining issues.

But the elemental drawback the Padres face is that it’s merely far too late to be the workforce they hoped they had been. Our projections nonetheless consider they’re a .572 workforce, however that’s solely adequate for a 19% likelihood of constructing the postseason with a divisional likelihood that rounds to zero; the ZiPS projections have it at 15%. While these are nonetheless fairly good odds, particularly in comparison with how the season has felt, it’s nonetheless much more possible than not that this yr finally ends up being a darkish companion to the 2021 season that additionally led to stunningly bleak vogue.

And right here’s the issue: the Padres venture to be worse sooner or later than they’re now. You might say that about most groups, however the Padres are additionally a workforce that has an enormous quantity of payroll already tied up in a declining roster, an unsigned Soto approaching free company, and doubtless not a whole lot of room left to develop in a payroll sense. Complicating issues even additional is the monetary collapse of Bally Sports, because the workforce has not but discovered find out how to change that income. Forbes estimated the Padres misplaced $53 million in 2022, and issues are more likely to worsen from there. Peter (Seidler) really noticed a wolf.

Running some up-to-date projections for gamers signed long-term demonstrates the enormity of the workforce’s problem. I’m going to start out with the Padres’ core of six gamers who’ve assured contracts with annual salaries of at $10 million or extra by way of at the very least the 2026 season. Whatever occurs elsewhere on the workforce, these six are virtually definitely going to be a part of the muse.

You could cringe wanting on the finish of Machado’s contract, however ZiPS already anticipated that earlier than the season. Machado put collectively a robust sufficient July — although he’s slumped since then and is nursing a sore hamstring — and skilled a transparent return to defensive type to trigger his 2024-and-on projections to tick up barely. While ZiPS didn’t just like the deal, it doesn’t prefer it any lower than it did in February.

Bogaerts was mired in a deep hunch in May and June, aided by a sore wrist, however has hit a extra Xanderian .290/.351/.413 because the begin of July, in-line with preseason expectations. As with Machado’s current deal, the Padres go into this contract understanding that they’re paying for Bogaerts to say no.

This is a little bit of an ungainly projection as a result of it highlights an assumption in workforce development that turned out to not be true. Typically, an honest defensive second baseman who can credibly pretend taking part in shortstop will normally fare properly at first base, however that simply has not occurred, at the very least thus far, with Jake Cronenworth. With Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 firmly entrenched as a starter, the Padres have a participant with worth however not a logical place to play him to be able to get that worth. The distinction is excessive sufficient that ZiPS thinks that Cronenworth is now greater than a win per season much less precious at first than second base.

Add in the truth that Cronenworth is having a down yr (and a fairly odd one when it comes to Statcast information), and there’s only a lot much less cause to love his future than there was earlier than.

Where the positional gods punished the Padres with Cronenworth, they had been far kinder right here. Tatis’ bat isn’t fairly the place it was, however he’s really turned out to be an glorious defensive outfielder, at the very least thus far. Given his age, he’s the one participant who initiatives to complete out his contract as a plus contributor to the workforce.

ZiPS was all the time pretty pessimistic concerning the Darvish extension, and with out him reversing the continued gradual decline in his peripherals, it hasn’t modified route because the begin of the season. While I all the time say “hitters age, pitchers break,” Darvish is at an age the place cliffs do, the truth is, beckon. ZiPS didn’t even wish to venture the ultimate two seasons of his extension; I’ll be form and never drive it to, so we’ll name these zero-WAR seasons, which is sunnier than what ZiPS would say if I made it.

The efficiency projections of Musgrove have stayed about the identical — hardly shocking contemplating that when he was wholesome, he was having the same season to final yr. But his return this season stays up within the air, and new accidents create new danger for a pitcher, so his projected innings totals have dropped significantly.

OK, let’s throw everyone into one desk, full with their salaries.

If the projections maintain true, these six will make up lower than a 3rd of the WAR wanted to be a 90-win workforce as quickly as 2026, after they mix for $120 million in wage. Unless the workforce continues to spend increasingly cash, it’s going to get tougher and tougher to make use of {dollars} to patch holes, which signifies that the farm system has to get again to producing in a short time. The Padres aren’t possible to have the ability to win on the backs of those six gamers for very lengthy, which signifies that they possible need to give you a complete new core of expertise round these gamers.

The danger right here is one in every of dynastic failure. I’m not calling the Padres a dynasty when it comes to baseball success, however extra how the time period has been used traditionally. Lots of warlords in historical past managed to get a throne, however to determine long-term rule, they needed to survive the transition to the subsequent rulers. The Astros are an instance of a workforce that has averted dynastic failure; solely a handful of the gamers on the workforce that received the World Series in 2017 had been nonetheless on the roster when Houston received the World Series in 2022. Only Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman stay among the many Astros’ offensive contributors immediately, and the one pitcher nonetheless in Houston, Lance McCullers Jr., received’t pitch once more till 2024 [and Verlander who I forgot about for some very odd reason -DS]. They mainly got here up with almost a completely new workforce in 5 years.

Baseball historical past is riddled with profitable groups that had been unable to transition to the subsequent period with no important interregnum, such because the Utley-Howard Phillies and the Tigers through the peak Miguel Cabrera years. But these Phillies received a World Series, and whereas the Tigers didn’t, that they had extra playoff success than these Padres groups have had. To obtain that success, the Padres are going to need to be extraordinarily inventive over the subsequent 5 years, lest they find yourself as one of many nice “what ifs” in baseball historical past. Spending cash and having a couple of huge stars received’t be sufficient.