CJ Abrams Takes The Lead

CJ Abrams befuddles me. There’s no query that he has plus uncooked energy in his bat. Look at this 12 months’s statistics; he’s sitting within the 81st percentile for optimum exit velocity. But regardless of that truth, he’s within the tenth percentile for common exit velocity, and the seventeenth for hard-hit charge. He’s an influence hitter! He’s a slap hitter! Both are true.

Likewise, I’m not fairly certain what to make of the remainder of his sport. He has blazing straight line velocity, and he makes use of that to his benefit on the basepaths. We have him down because the third-most precious baserunner within the majors this 12 months, behind solely Esteury Ruiz and Corbin Carroll. But virtually all of that worth comes on stolen bases – he’s twenty fifth in UBR, which measures non-steal development. And on protection, he has large vary and a median throwing arm, however grades out someplace between common (DRS) and poor (OAA) anyway. His profile is a collection of contradictions.

The factor is, all of those have been true about Abrams because the Padres drafted him within the first spherical in 2019. He was a divisive prospect from the beginning; it was by no means clear whether or not he’d find yourself as a slugging second baseman or a rangy, leadoff-hitting shortstop. Then the pandemic canceled the 2020 minor league season, and he missed most of 2021 with harm even because the Padres aggressively promoted him. Suddenly he was debuting within the large leagues at 21 as an harm alternative for, gulp, Fernando Tatis Jr. Life comes at you quick.

Sometimes, it recedes fairly shortly too. The Padres despatched Abrams again all the way down to the minors in May of his debut season, then known as him again up once more as they struggled to switch Tatis of their lineup. Then they shipped him to Washington as a part of the Juan Soto return. He struggled mightily in San Diego, struggled extra in D.C., and got here out of the gates slowly in 2023. Could the reply to the query “Is Abrams a power or contact hitter?” one way or the other be neither?

If the previous month or so is any indication, Abrams may need discovered a contented medium. I’m about to commit a sabermetric fake pas: I believe that numerous Abrams’ enchancment could be traced to his batting leadoff. He batted completely within the backside third of the order via July 6. On July 7, the Nats moved him to the highest of the order, and he’s appeared like a very totally different hitter since then. His baserunning and fielding are smaller points, as a result of each seem like they’ll be strong sufficient ultimately. If Abrams can hit, he’s precious, and now he’s hitting.

Of course, anybody can get sizzling for a month and a half, and Abrams hasn’t even been that sizzling; he has a 109 wRC+ since making the change. But I believe that a lot of modifications in his offensive strategy stemmed from that change, and that Abrams’ sport is well-suited to the mindset he’s bringing to the plate lately. Let’s examine and distinction to see what Abrams has modified and the way it would possibly assist.

The mindset concerned in hitting leadoff could be boiled all the way down to a single assertion: get on base. That comes with tradeoffs, however the easiest method to do this is to swing at unhealthy pitches much less often, and miss them much less often if you do. Abrams has performed simply that:

Obviously, there are tradeoffs on this strategy. One doable aspect impact of swinging much less typically at balls is swinging much less often at strikes. But that hasn’t been Abrams’ deal; he swung at 72.4% of pitches within the zone earlier than switching to leadoff, and he’s swinging at 72.6% since. A granular evaluation of in/out of zone can miss delicate modifications, however even if you happen to take a look at pitches proper down the guts of the plate, he swung at 75.4% earlier than the change and 72.6% since. That’s simply not a lot of a distinction.

That leaves three choices: both Abrams waved a magic wand over his eyes to enhance his pitch recognition, he’s on a sizzling streak, or he’s doing one thing towards a selected pitch that helps his complete sport. Turns out, it’s the final of the three. The worst pitch in baseball to swing at is a fastball outdoors the strike zone. Abrams was terrible – terrible – about it early within the 12 months, swinging at 37.9% of those pitches, which must be simple takes. The league common is 25.2% – and since July 7, he’s swinging at 25.9% of them.

A fastball outdoors of the strike zone is just about the worst choice for pitchers. Batters not often chase them, which suggests higher counts for the opposing hitter with out a lot probability of one thing good occurring. But Abrams was letting opposing pitchers off the hook sport after sport. It won’t sound like a lot, however swinging much less typically at unhealthy pitches does so a lot for you as a hitter. Not solely do you get forward within the rely extra often, however you place unhealthy pitches into play much less typically.

Speaking of placing pitches into play, I discussed Abrams’ whiff charge up above, and that too has taken a flip for the higher. That’s partially as a result of he’s swinging at fewer fastballs that he must be taking, however it’s additionally as a result of he’s staying inside himself extra often.

What do I imply by that? Despite Abrams’ enchancment on the plate within the final month and a half, he’s hitting the ball exhausting far much less often. 36.1% of his batted balls left the bat at 95 mph or more durable earlier than he switched to leadoff; since then, he’s all the way down to 29.6%. Neither of those numbers are good – the league common is round 40% – however he appears to be sacrificing a little bit of exhausting contact as a part of a “chase fewer fastballs” mindset.

The bizarre factor about it? You’ll observe that I didn’t say that his contact high quality is down. By just about any measure you possibly can consider, he’s doing simply superb in that class even with fewer hard-hit balls. His xwOBA on contact is up over the previous month and a half. He’s hitting extra barrels (8% towards 5.9%) and extra line drives. When he will get the ball within the air, he’s pulling it barely extra often, and he nonetheless has sufficient energy that these pulled air balls have been fairly precious.

In different phrases, it looks as if the tradeoff is working. He’s sacrificed exhausting hit frequency, however not a lot else. He’s strolling extra typically, although nonetheless fairly not often, and placing out far much less. His on-base share has skyrocketed from .281 to .339. That’s not some BABIP fluke, both; he’s working a .306 BABIP in his current sizzling streak, hardly an unsustainable clip. For what it’s price (and truthfully, not a ton in samples this small), Statcast thinks he deserves a fair greater batting common primarily based on his contact high quality.

Abrams himself isn’t fairly certain what’s modified. “I don’t know if it’s approach. It’s more the comfortability part of it,” he instructed Howard Megdal of Baseball Prospectus of his current heater. He’s not up there making an attempt to take walks – and given his historical past, that appears fairly affordable. Perhaps he actually is simply extra comfy now, and the unhealthy swings are falling away naturally.

This is a brief sufficient burst that it may completely simply be a sizzling streak. Anybody can do something in a sufficiently small pattern, and we’re solely taking a look at 167 plate appearances price to date. All the hair splitting I’m doing could possibly be washed out by per week of intemperate swinging and hard-hit grounders. But think about the choice: Abrams had lower than 350 skilled plate appearances beneath his belt when he debuted within the majors. He’s solely 22, and he simply crossed the thousand-PA mark this June. It’s hardly shocking that he’s struggled intermittently; Dylan Crews and James Wood, the 2 heralded prospects that high the Nationals system, aren’t a lot youthful. Maybe that is Abrams discovering his means within the large leagues. Washington’s rebuild is wanting higher than ever, and he’s no small purpose why.