What Yevgeny Prigozhin’s ‘demise’ means for the ‘disintegrating’ Wagner Group

The Wagner Group will proceed to disintegrate within the wake of a airplane crash that left its chief presumed lifeless, consultants have warned.

Yevgeny Prigozhin and his commander Dmitry Utkin have been on board a personal jet that smashed into the bottom north of Moscow on Wednesday, in response to Russia’s civil aviation authority.

Also on the flight was Valery Chekalov, reportedly Prigozhin’s deputy and accountable for all Wagner Group logistics.

All these on the plane are believed to have been killed, however Prigozhin’s demise has but to be confirmed on any official channels.

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Shashank Joshi, defence editor at The Economist, stated the group – reportedly named by Utkin after Adolf Hitler’s favorite composer – could have come to an finish in its present kind.

“It will have a serious effect on the cohesion of Wagner but of course Wagner, as we know, was already disintegrating even before this plane crash,” he instructed Sky News.

“We saw this in the sense that they were being pushed out of Africa by Russian military intelligence, displaced by other Russian mercenary groups close to the Russian government, and even in Ukraine.

“They have been successfully taking part in a negligible position on the frontlines after he [Prigozhin] led the seize of Bakhmut again in May.”

As a outcome, the organisation was “already falling apart”, he stated.

Now it’s doubtless that fighters will defect to different teams, with the Russian authorities transferring to consolidate management over what’s left.

“[Wagner] was always dependent on Russia’s Defence Ministry for things like heavy weapons, artillery ammunition,” Mr Joshi stated.

“We should avoid the sense that it was ever a serious, independent fighting force independent of the Russian government.”

Why did senior Wagner figures fly on the identical airplane?

Former Wagner fighter Marat Gabidullin stated it was odd that Prigozhin, Utkin and Chekalov all appeared to have flown on the identical plane.

“Yes, this surprised me,” he instructed Sky News. “Why they did not follow a certain security protocol, why two top people flying together? Yes, I was surprised.”

Regarding whether or not Prigozhin actually had died, Mr Gabidullin stated: “As of now, the information is that he has died. My sources also confirm this information.”

Regarding how Wagner forces could react to Prigozhin’s obvious demise, Mr Gabidullin stated: “It will all depend on who will be accused of their death, which facts are confirmed.

“There continues to be no readability about the reason for the crash.”

Wagner will most likely stop to exist – in its current kind

Joana de deus Pereira, a senior analysis fellow on the Royal United Services Institute, stated Wagner, as it’s at current, with its present “label”, will “probably cease to exist”.

However, she stated the “organisation it represents will continue to operate and morph and probably will appear with another branding, with a facelift”.

She added that the “operations, the core operations in Africa, they will continue to exist”.

Wagner’s stronghold in Africa may very well be eroded

The group has a presence in Africa, the place it has been “providing muscle for these African leaders who basically don’t want the West to meddle in their affairs”, Mr Joshi stated.

“If you’re an African leader who needs men with guns, then you don’t really care if the badge says Wagner, if the chain of command leads up to Prigozhin or if it’s somebody else, as long as they’re dependable, they’re reliable, and they’re affordable.”

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But a “steady erosion” of the group’s affect in these locations stays doubtless, Mr Joshi stated.

However, something that arrives instead can be “similarly unsavoury” and prone to be managed by the Kremlin, he added.

What it means for Ukraine and Putin

As for the frontlines within the battle with Ukraine, it might make little or no distinction.

“Wagner just isn’t that important,” Mr Joshi stated.

Many will see Prigozhin’s demise as revenge by the Russian president following his mutiny in opposition to Vladimir Putin two months in the past.

But the very fact it took him nearly eight weeks to behave could imply Mr Putin is labelled as weak.

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“Prigozhin’s mutiny and the theatrical mode of his death reminds the Russian elite that there are challenges to Putin’s rule out there, that Putin does not always act against them in a decisive way,” Mr Joshi stated.

“I don’t think this necessarily means that all challenges to Putin’s rule are done with for the foreseeable future.”