Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/24/23

Dan Szymborski: And we’re LIVE

Dan’s Mom: Daniel, I’m nonetheless ready for my DeadLinesmas current.  Should I simply come over and choose it up?

Dan Szymborski: No, they’re imagined to be presents for individuals who know what the commerce deadline is.

BlueJayMatt: Which13 Jays gamers? I hit return and the query acquired despatched early, sorry Dan

BlueJayMatt: In your wonderful article this morning you discuss Toronto saying “Blue Jays have an absurd 13″…”offensive gamers below contract who venture at 1.5 WAR or extra in 2024”.

Dan Szymborski: You don’t anticipate me to provide *all* the secrets and techniques away do ya?

Dan Szymborski: But let’s simply say that Schneider and Orelvis and Roden are there

Dan Szymborski: and Barger hasn’t fallen beneath the 1.5 line

Dan Szymborski: and Lantigua’s there

Bob: ZiPS was unusually optimistic about Bogaerts deal this previous winter. You re-ran his projections in your current article, however I didn’t get a way of how a lot they’ve modified or how probably the deal is to be below water now that we’re principally by a comfortable first season. Could you touch upon {that a} bit?

Dan Szymborski: It’s undoubtedly come down a bit

Dan Szymborski: particularly the out years

Dan Szymborski: It’s change into extra underwater

Stevie: I really feel considerably accountable for jinxing Ohtani now.                                                                                      Stevie: Is there any upside to Ohtani pitching once more this 12 months?
2:55
 Jay Jaffe: Yes. Because he’s f’ing good at it, in the midst of maybe the best season ever, and we wish to be entertained!

Steve: Dan, does ZiPS bear in mind any x-stats? Is there any proof that one thing like xwOBA has helpful predictive worth?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS makes use of its personal factor which I’ve talked about lots currently!

Dan Szymborski: and it *is* desigend to be predictive

Dan Szymborski: xwOBA has predictive worth, although it incessantly comes below different issues

Dan Szymborski: in predicting the long run

Dan Szymborski: However, folks assume that’s the top of it, however that’s not likely the way it works. You don’t simply select One True Input to Rule Them All

Dan Szymborski: xStats and zStats each have information that the opposite stuff doesn’t have

Dan Szymborski: so even within the case of xstats the place it doesn’t do this significantly better than FIP

Dan Szymborski: the query is whether or not utilizing xstats *improves* FIP or any of the like measures

Dan Szymborski: Just as one other instance, there’s no level within the season, traditionally, wherein preseason ZiPS group profitable share is a worse predictor than precise group profitable share.

Dan Szymborski: But we don’t simply select one and ignore the opposite. Actual group profitable share does have some data {that a} preseason projection doesn’t

Dan Szymborski: So if that’s all we’ve got, whereas ZiPS preseason beats in-season, ZiPS preseason *and* in-season beats each.

Kip: Given the widespread adoption of information I’m curious the place the elite groups set themselves aside.  What’s one thing the elite groups are doing with analytics  most groups aren’t?

Dan Szymborski: I’m gentle on specifics, though I do speak lots with groups and likewise promote them a variety of information. Basically, there’s a fairly strict two-way wall with the intention to protect my independence.

Dan Szymborski: But the *impression* I get is that the groups that do one of the best with analytics aren’t essentially those with the fanciest techniques

Dan Szymborski: But those who do one of the best job at taking information and turning the information into *actions* and *plans*

Dan Szymborski: For instance, whereas the Astros have at all times had good analytics, what they’ve actually excelled at is speaking that sort of data to gamers and to really using it in resolution making

Dan Szymborski: The worst organizations at this incessantly have some actually good data however there’s a chokepoint someplace within the resolution making course of

Dan Szymborski: Surrey can have all of the troops on this planet, but when they’ll’t recover from the Stirling bridge, it doesn’t matter what number of they’ve

q: How a lot of an obstacle do you suppose franchises could be at in the event that they relied on publicly-available analytics & rankings (i.e. your projections, BA prospect rankings…) as an alternative of inner instruments? A semi-recent Boddy tweet suggests the hole isn’t that huge

Dan Szymborski: I agree with Kyle. They have very particular details about their very own gamers, however they’ll by no means have the identical element about gamers on the remainder of the group. Where groups excel is having the manpower and the flexibility to *implement* the information

Dan Szymborski: And on some stage, if the hole was big, I wouldn’t promote shit on the facet.

Dan Szymborski: (Of course, I’ve some non public stuff too)

Totally clear-eyed realist: Bobby Witt Jr. goes to look good in pinstripes, isn’t he?

Dan Szymborski: THe factor is, which may be the place the Yankees want in the slightest degree of assist

leprekhan: What is one group that’s at the moment a dumpster fireplace, however you suppose there’s really hope that issues may turnaround for them comparatively rapidly?

Dan Szymborski: The White Sox

Dan Szymborski: don’t giggle

Dan Szymborski: They’re not *going* to show issues round rapidly

Dan Szymborski: But think about if Reinsdorf offered the group

Dan Szymborski: The new proprietor would have a Chicago group, even when it’s the lesser Chicago group, in a low-effort division

Dan Szymborski: Fact is, the White Sox weren’t *that* removed from having a number of issues go their approach and the Reinsdorf-TLR-Hahn-Kennydubs rubbish fireplace understanding anyway

Matt G: Do you think about ZIPS extra like Data, Spock/Tuvok/and many others, the holodeck, or the ‘computer’ / Majel Barrett?

Dan Szymborski: I might hope Data

Dan Szymborski: Though I’m actually not

RobertoBeers: A person, a Dan, a Chat, Ohtani ennui, unneinathotahcanadanama

Laxtonto: Am i a potatoe?

Dan Szymborski: My mother spells potato mistaken in each types. Potatoe and Potatos

Laxtonto: Pizza or tacos?

Dan Szymborski: Tacos

Laxtonto: Beer or….. Beer?

Dan Szymborski: Why not each?

David Howell: If Ohtani has thrown his final MLB pitch, does that make everyone quit on the thought of a two-way participant within the majors, with implications for drafting two-way amateurs?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose it makes everybody quit on the thought

Dan Szymborski: I believe it’s at all times going to be uncommon

Jerry Reinsdorf: I’m not really going to rent Dayton Moore and promote Chris Getz to run the baseball operations, am I?

Dan Szymborski: Getz did have one of the best walkup music of all time

Dan Szymborski:

tz: If Ohtani had TJ tomorrow, and also you had been working a giant market group, would you continue to supply him 10/500?  I’d strongly think about it, if solely as a result of the upside of him pitching once more is a plus on high of being a transparent high 10-20 MLB hitter.

Dan Szymborski: I might not.

Phil: With the dangerous information about Ohtani, how does that impact his contract?

Dan Szymborski: Poorly I assume. But he received’t be dancing within the subway station for nickels anytime quickly

Link: What are your ideas on Tears of the Kingdom?

Dan Szymborski: Have not performed but

Mike: Are ZIPS 2024/2025 up to date mid season? If not, is there a great way to determine mid-season projection enhancements for minor leaguers or younger huge leaguers?

Dan Szymborski: On my finish they’re. We solely do them preseason on the location

Scott: What has occurred with Xander this 12 months? Has it been principally wrist associated? I do know he turned 30, however the man had been a .300/.375/.480ish man the final 3 years. Can we make the “first year of a new big contract” excuse? I do know you probably did an article on SD not too long ago, ought to Xander’s ZIPs actually fall that quick? He was nice final 3 years. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: I actually hope it’s a fluke

A Huge Dog: Woof woof! I really feel like not sufficient individuals are discussing Sonny Gray’s wonderful season and residential run suppression. As a canine, I solely see Gray, however do you suppose Gray’s stats inform the true image? Do you suppose he has a sensible shot on the Cy Young? Bark!

Dan Szymborski: Never fall in love with a man primarily based on one 12 months HR outliers

Dan Szymborski: xFIP solely works in addition to it does as a result of HRs allowed is a crappy stat for pitchers

Dan Szymborski: Gray needs to be good at stopping homers, however there’s not a lot supporting *this* as a talent

Dan Szymborski: I’d in all probability vote for Gallen if the season ended at this time

Dan Szymborski: although it’s shut

Dan Szymborski: (I’m RoY once more, not Cy this 12 months)

Oddball Herrera: Oh boy – the Monday morning quarterbacking on the Angel’s conserving Ohtani goes to be brutal after at this time’s information

Dan Szymborski: It’d be weirder if it didn’t

JasonM: How nicely does ZiPS do with restricted professional information on a participant comparable to Schanuel?

Dan Szymborski: Definitely a lot bigger error bars

Dan Szymborski: When you haven’t any skilled expertise

Dan Szymborski: Normally, I wouldn’t even give Schanuel an official projection for 2024, however now I’m caught!

Dan Szymborski: Which means school translation, which suck

Joe: ZiPS had very sturdy projections for Yoshida. I imagine 3+ WAR. At the time I assumed the batting line was optimistic, however affordable. Otoh, the protection and base working considerations raised by the scouting studies appeared to be principally minimized. There was some crowing early within the 12 months that the optimistic projections had been appropriate. He’s now slumping badly and sitting at a disappointing 0.8 WAR. I believe his hitting will bounce again some, however his protection and base working worth make it laborious to ever see him as a 3+ WAR participant. Does ZiPS have problem projecting non hitting efficiency from international leagues?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, as a result of the information for the protection kinda sucks

Jerry Reinsdorf: I’m scheduling interviews for the brand new “single decision maker” in baseball operations. You ?

Dan Szymborski: Between him and TLR and Moore and Getz, it’s only a barely totally different four-headed monster

Sirras: Two huge stars harm in a single night time. Who are the subsequent brightest, must-watch gamers to look at each AB/pitch from?

Dan Szymborski: He’s nonetheless uncooked and McLain’s clearly the higher participant proper now, however Elly De La Cruz IS enjoyable

Zach: I assume this text is for the offseason. Would you think about writing an article outlining Ohtani’s remainder of profession projections? Could you embrace his projections earlier than his second Tommy John surgical procedure (TJ), in addition to the opportunity of him changing into a reliever or outfielder?

Dan Szymborski: I’m really working some numbers alongside these traces for one thing Jay is engaged on

Dan Szymborski: Glad he grabbed that one as writing about this simply feels too unhappy for my tastes

Todd Bonzalez: What sort of participant is TJ Friedl transferring ahead? Tons of blue within the Savant web page, however in some way nonetheless having a productive season on the plate. Lots of that needs to be luck, proper? Seems to do every little thing else moderately nicely.

Dan Szymborski: Just an averagish stopgap dude

Guest: The video games are too quick now! How can we gradual them down? Oddly aggressive Burger King mascot runs on the sphere at arbitrary moments?

Dan Szymborski: Fast is nice with me! I like excessive density baseball

brent says go padres: Would folks be calling for Preller’s head if the Padres had been taking part in at their run differential? It simply looks as if they’ve gotten traditionally unfortunate however between Salas, Merrill, Lesko, and some different guys it looks as if he’s been capable of replenish the farm system whereas assembling a proficient however unfortunate MLB roster. I get it, it’s not my cash, and the 12 months is irritating, however it looks as if an overreaction to me

Dan Szymborski: Probably not. Perception is a giant factor

Dan Szymborski: Preller’s a roughly common GM. He’s carried out some good factor and carried out some crappy issues

Nathan: If I had been a fortune teller with 100% accuracy at predicting when and which gamers will get injured, however these accidents can’t be prevented, would I earn more money off of MLB groups or gamblers?

Dan Szymborski: why not each? 😀

Sean: With the Ohtani information, what impact do you suppose it can have on his free company?  Lots of decide outs?  No extra pitching?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have the slightest thought!

Sammy So-so: Truly loved the Rebuild the Bombers piece. If that they had offered on Bader and Peralta and perhaps Gleyber on the deadline, would issues look slightly brighter proper now or would it not not be sufficient to maneuver the needle?

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided they’d have actually gotten something future-changing

Failed Rebuild: Dan, we think about that fairly a bit.

Failed Rebuild: Imagining solely hurts us.

JP: What are zips’ odds of Acuña, Murphy and Olson every producing at 99th percentile outcomes, Ozuna and Rosario getting back from the lifeless to high profession averages, Arcia hitting for the primary time in his life, and Riley/Albies/d’Arnaud matching or exceeding projected output ALL IN THE SAME YEAR? Has to be like .00001%

Dan Szymborski: I disagree with the premise although!

Dan Szymborski: In OPS+, Acuña’s solely at his 63rd percentile final result

Dan Szymborski: Oops mistaken cling on

Dan Szymborski: (I nonetheless had it projecting 2024)

Dan Szymborski: 90 (i knew immediately it wasn’t actudally 63)

Dan Szymborski: And slightly decrease because it’s in 5/6 of the season

Dan Szymborski: as an alternative of 6/6

Dan Szymborski: Murphy 87

Dan Szymborski: Olson 83

Dan Szymborski: (And once more, these go slightly decrease while you account for fewer video games)

Dan Szymborski: Even ARcia’s isnt’ loopy

Dan Szymborski: Percentile 2B HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR   95% 23 20 .290 .352 .483 119 2.9   90% 22 19 .281 .340 .463 112 2.6   80% 20 17 .269 .327 .438 103 2.1

Guest: Is there any open supply baseball stats prediction software program (Python or R) you’d advocate?

Dan Szymborski: It’s helpful to know each should you’re breaking into the sport

Mike: Just needed to say thanks for all of the leisure over time.

Dan Szymborski: I attempt to be at the least mildly amusing

Danny: I perceive the philosophy behind utilizing a fip primarily based worth metric as making an attempt to measure the contribution from pitcher talent. Given that, why aren’t all so fwar calculations primarily based on one of the best descriptive metrics of talent (one thing like xwoba for batters, siera, xfip, or xera for pitchers)?

Dan Szymborski: Because FIP is designed for a particular objective and it’s good for definitions to not changee

Dan Szymborski: I believe it’s usually higher to develop higher stats reasonably than change present stats

Dan Szymborski: WAR is totally different as a result of WAR is de facto simply a big framework, not a stat itself in the identical approach

leprekhan: I respect the reply, however I’ve no religion Reinsdorf’s decision-making together with who he would promote the group to IF that had been to return to cross.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the factor. Put all of the billionaire’s names in a hat. I guess that almost all of your attracts could be a greater proprietor than Reinsdorf

Sadness: I do know it’s not almost as enjoyable however isn’t Shohei the fitting fielder sufficient worth to cowl his 2.3 pitching WAR? Seems just like the protection/place worth covers the pitching loss no?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a little bit of a stretch

Dan Szymborski: There isn’t a 23 run positional adjustment from  DH to nook outfielder

Dan Szymborski: and we don’t understand how good he’ll really be in proper

Guest: “Never fall in love with a guy based on one year HR outliers”. My spouse fell for that trick and now she’s caught with me! Bwaabwaaaaa

maximus: what number of 17 12 months olds have performed at AA?

Dan Szymborski: Not many!

Dan Szymborski: At least in recnet instances

Dan Szymborski: cling on a sec

Dan Szymborski: 17 years outdated with at the least 100 PA at AA embrace

Dan Szymborski: Wil Cordero 1989

Dan Szymborski: Robert Holbert 1964

Dan Szymborski: Danny Murphy 1960

Dan Szymborski: that’s all I’ve in my db

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: If we had been to imagine that Ohtani is completed pitching for the foreseeable future and even past, do you see him transitioning as an OF or remaining as a DH?

Dan Szymborski: I can see him within the outfield as soon as his arm is nicely sufficient for that

Mike: Reinsdorf’s son works on the Bulls and doesn’t care concerning the Sox. Likely the group is up on the market within the subsequent decade when he passes.

LFC Mike: The Burger King mascot would frighten the kids. It scares me.

Dan Szymborski: I guess I could make scarier Burger King mascots in Midjourney!

Mike M: Now that we’re a great way by the season, have you ever had an opportunity to mirror or analyze how nicely your ZiPS has down in gentle of the foundations adjustments?  Knowing what now about the best way the sport has been performed, would you will have tweaked ZiPS any in another way within the pre-season should you acquired to redo it?

Dan Szymborski: increased SB for positive. Not a ton has actually modified that a lot in any other case

Dan Szymborski: But I haven’t given a lot thought to how Future Dan in a time machine ought to have an effect on a mannequin

Dan Szymborski: as a result of Future Dan going again to troll Past Dan seems like one thing I might do

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I’m positive children will like a kind of

Dertom: I cherished the AL East ZiPS preview for 2024 within the Yankees article. Can you discover a method to do the identical for different divisions in upcoming articles please?

Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t planning on one thing fairly so formal.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll in all probability do a start-of-free company run as I do most years

Dan: If you may completely predict the long run you may make thousands and thousands till the casinos banned you (or worse) should you may persuade a group you had this energy with out outing your self to the opposite groups you may make thousands and thousands slower however may preserve making thousands and thousands for the remainder of your life

Dan Szymborski: It would make life sort of boring. I’d be rich, however I’d mainly be ruining baseball for myself

Dan Szymborski: Why watch if what’s going to occur?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, we are able to predict the Royals suck. But HOW they suck is price watching it unfold

C-Low: Does Jackson Holliday make a 2023 look?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan: At the start of the 12 months I requested who would miss the playoff by much less wins than the worth of a strong free agent DH and good non nearer reliever) you or your colleague (can’t recall) predicted three groups. Is that also a probable quantity?

Dan Szymborski: Must have been a colleague as I might have demanded you say fewer!

Eli: Regarding “Rebuilding the Bombers” – Cashman has acquired to be fired, proper? Has any GM fallen extra in estimation over the previous few years? The hiring Sean Casey transfer is such overweening hubris and idiocy that that alone ought to end in sacking the entire entrance workplace!

Dan Szymborski: The factor is, I believe most jobs like this, after a very long time with the identical individual, a brand new perspective might be refereshing

Wireless Joe Jackson: Dan, are you able to please write an article about what components affect Pythagorean over/underperformance (and the components we are able to show don’t)?  I’m getting bored with arguing about it.  Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Here, I’ll listing the significant ones:

Dan Szymborski: /finish

Dan Szymborski: Top nearer was closest to mattering and it had an r^2 within the 0.02 vary

LFC Mike: Dan.. What meals or drink will you utilize to drown your Ohtani sorrows?  Hefty pot of chili… masterful sandwich ?  Sweets?  Everyone has coping mechanisms.

Dan Szymborski: Actually, primarily based on lunch, an entire bunch of blueberry mini-muffins

O’s going all the best way!: Were you leaning Henderson or Jung earlier than the damage? Has to be Henderson now regardless, proper?

Dan Szymborski: Henderson.

Dan Szymborski: Though I’ve no vote in AL ROY

Dan Szymborski: I’m in Cincy BBWAA chapter, so I’d vote on NL awards

Dan Szymborski: now, they’ll draft somebody from one other chapter in the event that they’re quick

Dan Szymborski: however I might decline that as a result of there are various individuals who don’t get to vote as a result of they’re in massive chapters and I’ve gotten to vote in 6 of 8 seasons

Dan Szymborski: Jay has *by no means* gotten to vote in a year-end award, which is totally bullshit

Mark: Just needed to say how a lot I take pleasure in your chats. Nowhere else to we get baseball, chili, Olivier Messiaen, and Henry George in the identical place! Your chili recipe is scrumptious, I might add.

Dan Szymborski: Ah, I’m glad you loved actual chili!

Dan Szymborski: And it’s tremendous easy

Dan Szymborski: While I might think about myself a foodie, I like a variety of easy issues being ready merely

Dan Szymborski: A hunk of salami and a hunk of good laborious cheese are a superbly great meal

Kevin: You don’t must destroy baseball! Ruin one other sport along with your predictive powers

Dan Szymborski: Ideally, that may be the best way to go

Dan Szymborski: Like Future Dan may give the soccer/affiliation soccer report e book

Dan Szymborski: My enjoyment of sports correlates with having fun with taking part in them as a child

Dan Szymborski: I cherished taking part in baseball

Dan Szymborski: I completely hated taking part in soccer. Such an terrible ratio of working round to doing stuff

Dan Szymborski: On that be aware, I’ve some projection stuff to maintain, so gonna must preserve this at an hour at this time

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!