It’s been a month of upheaval within the AL West. As Jay Jaffe detailed, the Mariners are enjoying their finest baseball of the season proper now. A 9-1 stretch has carried them to the highest of the division, turning what had been a two-team race all yr right into a three-way showdown. It’s essentially the most aggressive division race remaining, so lots of people trying to find a jolt of pleasure down the stretch shall be trying west.
Of course, Seattle’s climb to the highest of the division didn’t occur in a vacuum. For each motion, there’s an equal and reverse response, and for the time being, that response is going on in Texas. The Astros spent the final week treading water, which allowed the Mariners to roar previous them. The Rangers did them one worse; they’ve fallen right into a 3-9 tailspin that turned a season-long lead within the division right into a deficit.
It’s all the time tempting to show a 3-9 stretch – or a 4-8 stretch, or actually any stretch that takes a group out of first place – right into a referendum on the squad. The Rangers ought to have seen this coming, the considering goes. This group? With these weaknesses? It was all the time going to occur. But let’s withhold judgment for a couple of minutes and break it down like this: What’s occurring in Arlington, and what has to alter to show the group’s fortunes round?
First, we have now to outline the timeframe we’re speaking about. I arbitrarily selected August 14, about two weeks in the past. Why? A win that day pushed them to three.5 video games forward of Houston, their largest divisional lead because the center of July. Those pesky Astros had been clinging to Texas’ coattails all yr, however maybe a collection of deadline strikes had lastly moved the Rangers into the motive force’s seat. Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery, and Chris Stratton have been simply the enhance the group wanted.
Since then, the underside has dropped out. Texas has gone 3-9 whereas getting outscored by 20 runs. Those 12 video games won’t maintain the important thing to understanding what’s gone mistaken, but when we study them and strip out what’s gone proper, possibly we will discover some indication of what wants to alter if the Rangers are going to commerce blows with the Mariners and Astros down the stretch.
The main factor that has gone proper is identical factor that’s been going proper all yr: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Nathaniel Lowe have been pulling their weight. They’ve every performed each sport, they usually’re the highest three hitters in plate appearances over that span, naturally sufficient. Seager has been incandescent all yr, and “all year” consists of the previous two weeks, throughout which he’s slashed .340/.431/.660. Add Mitch Garver to that record; whereas alternating between catcher and DH, he’s surged offensively within the second half.
If you cut up any season into sufficiently small elements, you’ll discover some weaknesses, as a result of that’s simply how baseball works. Jonah Heim and Adolis García, two of the gamers whose success has fueled the Rangers’ rise this yr, have had a tough few weeks. Heim is hitting .167/.219/.267, and García’s .155/.191/.311 line isn’t any higher. But once more, we’re speaking about 11 video games right here. You can’t focus an excessive amount of on anyone participant. In combination, the offense has produced roughly 4 runs per sport – not nice, however hardly disastrous – and an 87 wRC+.
If you’re diagnosing what ails Texas’ offense, you’ll seemingly come away with the identical view that unbiased observers already had coming into the season: The group wants extra contributions from the outfield. The downside isn’t a lot that García had a down stretch; it’s that when he’s having a down stretch, there’s nobody to choose up the slack. With Josh Jung’s damage, the Rangers are quick on on a regular basis regulars. Leody Taveras, Robbie Grossman, and Travis Jankowski are masking 2.5 spots (two outfielder positions and DH, roughly), they usually’re not fairly minimize out for the job. They’ve produced an combination 48 wRC+ on this stretch. Ezequiel Duran, who would usually ship a type of guys to the bench, is enjoying third base full-time till Jung returns. The offense is only one horse quick, in different phrases.
That’s hardly sufficient of an issue to elucidate the group’s latest poor kind, although. And one other frequent clarification, their file in one-run video games, doesn’t go muster both. The Rangers are 1-3 in one-run video games throughout their latest swoon, however that also leaves six multi-run losses, and it’s not like all of these have been shut. As you would possibly anticipate, the pitching workers has struggled mightily.
It’s no coincidence that the Rangers targeted on including pitchers on the commerce deadline. They spent the offseason upgrading the rotation, solely to be stymied by Jacob deGrom’s season-ending UCL tear and a forearm pressure that has sidelined Nathan Eovaldi since July 18. Montgomery and Scherzer have been as a lot backfill for these two starters as an try to take a step ahead.
Fortuitously for Texas, these deadline additions have been the category of the rotation even within the group’s latest dip. Montgomery has made three begins and compiled a 1.86 ERA; Scherzer is second on the group in starter ERA and FIP over that stretch. The downside? He’s second regardless of two poor performances, not less than measured by Scherzer’s exacting requirements: a mixed 10.2 innings, a 4.22 ERA, and a 3.55 FIP thanks to regulate points (he’s issued 5 walks).
Again, that’s the good pitching. The remainder of the rotation has been someplace between dangerous and unfathomable. Jon Gray has a 4.76 ERA because of an terrible begin in opposition to the Diamondbacks (4 innings, 5 earned runs), although he’s been good in his different two turns. Andrew Heaney hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in his final two begins. Dane Dunning has allowed seven earned runs in his final 9 innings of labor. Excluding Montgomery, the starters aren’t offering good run prevention and even good quantity; they’re placing up ERAs within the sixes and leaving loads of work for the bullpen to do afterwards, a tough mixture.
And oh, that poor bullpen. It’s been a group weak spot all yr; buying and selling for Aroldis Chapman helped, but it surely’s nonetheless missing each top-end arms and depth. Asked to bail out each non-Montgomery starter seemingly day by day, the unit has been unable to reply the bell. Things have gotten actually ugly. The bullpen ERA on this span is an unpleasant 6.41, and this isn’t some batted ball luck subject; their 5.97 FIP is equally stunning.
ERA is a very foolish method to consider relievers in brief stints, however the headline quantity nonetheless astounds: 10 relievers have appeared on this stretch, and 6 of them have an ERA above six. Six of them have a FIP above six. It’s not simply residence run luck, both; solely two relievers have an xFIP under 4.00 in that span. Chapman and José Leclerc are trudging alongside; everybody else has been getting crushed into orbit.
What’s superb to me about this stoop is that it completely matches the questions that analysts and prognosticators had in regards to the group’s probabilities coming into 2023. No one doubted their infield, and the beginning rotation appeared dominant if everybody stayed wholesome. But the outfield and the bullpen have been query marks, and naturally well being is rarely a given, notably in the case of starters.
Those weaknesses haven’t doomed the group to a failed season; they’re 74-57 regardless of these precise spots being query marks all yr. But they’ve turned the path to the playoffs from a downhill glide into an uphill march. No group within the American League has seen their playoff odds shrink extra over this stretch than Texas’ 29.3 share level lower (the Blue Jays are second, naturally). What appeared like an computerized playoff berth is now a 2-in-3 probability.
If Rangers followers really feel like they’ve gotten a uncooked deal, I sympathize with them. Sure, the group got here into the yr with some clear weak factors, however the robust factors have greater than lined for them in combination. We’re not speaking about some group skating by because of an unsustainable string of one-run victories; they’ve the third-best run differential within the majors, and their underlying part stats are even higher than that. Only the Braves have a greater BaseRuns file, which is calculated by particular person outcomes on a per-PA foundation relatively than at what number of runs have truly scored. These are not any paper champions; they’ve been performing like a high group all season.
That’s how baseball works, although. Those video games are all water below the bridge, their outcomes set in stone. The Rangers have gotten to the tip of August in playoff place, however solely barely; they’re tied with the Astros, and the 2 of them occupy the second and third Wild Card spots. The Blue Jays lurk 2.5 video games behind. Of the 4 playoff hopefuls jockeying for 3 spots (Texas, Houston, Seattle, and Toronto), the Rangers have the hardest remaining schedule.
Luckily, additionally they have among the finest groups within the American League. Bullpen holes however, weak outfield taken under consideration, our Depth Charts projections suppose the Rangers are the sixth-best AL group going ahead, and the Tenth-best group general. They’re inside a margin of error of the opposite groups they’re contending with on that entrance; we’re speaking a handful of video games over a whole season, little sufficient distinction as to really feel negligible over a single month.
That ought to be the most important takeaway of the previous few weeks for the Rangers: At the tip of the day, none of this would possibly matter. A couple of weeks in the past, they have been locked in a good race for the AL West title, one {that a} collection or two would possibly decide. Today, the identical factor is true. A couple of weeks in the past, they’d a group that was among the many high groups within the AL, a bona fide World Series contender. Today, the identical factor is true. Injuries haven’t derailed them. Their superstars haven’t turned to mud. Eovaldi and Jung are nonetheless slated to return earlier than season’s finish. Things won’t be nice, however they’re removed from horrible.
That’s fantastic. Too many of those “this team crashed” tales finish with no hope. The Cardinals, Mets, Padres, and Yankees have slumped their method out of relevance this yr. A couple of tough weeks in Cleveland have buried the Guardians. But the Rangers are too good, they usually’ve performed too nicely, to fall sufferer to that destiny.
Could their bullpen betray them additional, retaining them out of the playoffs in spite of everything? Most positively. Could the offense grind to a halt? Of course. But in a season most notable for would-be contenders and their deadly flaws, the Rangers don’t fairly match the invoice. They’re nonetheless a playoff-caliber group no matter their latest kind. The final month of the season guarantees to be tremendously thrilling. Don’t depend the Rangers out of it simply because they picked a foul few weeks for a stoop.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com