Bryce Harper Is Lastly Crushing the Ball Once more

While Bryce Harper made the quickest return from Tommy John surgical procedure of any place participant on report, it got here with a price. Not surprisingly, he didn’t hit the ball as onerous as typical within the early months of his return, or do as a lot harm as a result of he wasn’t elevating it with consistency. At one level, he went 166 plate appearances and not using a dwelling run, the longest drought of his profession, however even then, he remained a fairly productive hitter. Lately he’s been heating up, crushing the ball whereas serving to the Phillies climb to the highest of the NL Wild Card race.

In the fourth inning of Monday evening’s sport in opposition to the Angels in Philadelphia, Harper demolished a Lucas Giolito fastball that was enjoying in the course of the highway:

The homer — a 111.9-mph scorcher with a projected distance of 429 toes — was Harper’s fourth in a seven-game rampage, throughout which he’s hit .500/.613/1.037. It was his eighth homer of the month, his highest whole since he hit 9 in September/October 2021 (and 10 in August of the identical season) en path to his second MVP award. He maxed out at seven homers in May of final season, the month he was identified with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his proper elbow.

To be honest, Harper’s August 21 homer, an inside-the-parker, in all probability ought to have been scored as a double or triple plus an error on Giants heart fielder Wade Meckler:

Statcast says that given the fundamental specs on that shot — 101 mph off the bat at a 28-degree launch angle and a projected distance of 405 toes — it could have been a homer in 13 of the 30 ballparks, which is to say that he’s actually hit cheaper ones. He now has 13 homers this yr, with three coming in May however none in June and solely two in July. After homering on May 25, he went 38 video games (37 begins) earlier than including one other within the nightcap of a July 15 doubleheader, 13 video games greater than his earlier lengthy set simply final yr in a streak bifurcated by his damaged left thumb, which sidelined him for 2 months.

Harper underwent Tommy John surgical procedure final November 23, having forestalled the inevitable for six months, lengthy sufficient to provide some memorable moments whereas serving to the Phillies attain the World Series for the primary time since 2009. He returned to the lineup on May 2, 160 days after surgical procedure. As finest as anybody can inform, the place participant he surpassed along with his fast return was Tony Womack, who wanted 182 days; he underwent the surgical procedure on October 6, 2002, per week after the season ended, and was within the Diamondbacks’ Opening Day lineup on March 31, 2003.

Womack was a slap-hitting speedster who hit all of 36 homers in his 14-year main league profession, however he was notably horrible in his post-surgery season, batting .226/.251/.307 with two homers and a 35 wRC+ whereas getting traded twice. Harper is just about the antithesis of Womack as a hitter, however given his speedy return — which didn’t even embrace a rehab project, simply round 50 at-bats price of dwell batting observe in opposition to teammates — it wasn’t all that stunning that he wasn’t fairly himself.

Harper wasn’t horrible within the early going; after going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his season debut, he went 3-for-3 with a double and a pair of walks the subsequent evening, homered off Boston’s Corey Kluber in his fourth sport again, and once more off Colorado’s Pierce Johnson in his ninth, by which level he was hitting an absurd .361/.439/.611. The hits quickly slowed down, each actually and figuratively; as Leo Morgenstern identified in late June when Harper was greater than a month into his dwelling run drought, his exit velocity by way of his first 20 video games was solely within the seventieth percentile, down from his typical spot within the 90s (he was within the 92nd percentile in every of the previous two seasons).

Setting exit velocity and Statcast apart for a second, it’s not onerous to see that Harper was out of whack on the plate simply by his conventional batted ball stats:

Harper isn’t as excessive a fly baller as — to make use of an apparent level of comparability — Mike Trout. Trout owns a profession groundball charge of 35.4% and a fly ball charge of 42.3%, for a 0.83 ratio. Harper’s profession charges are virtually the inverse, with a 41.4% groundball charge, a 36.7% fly ball charge, and a 1.13 ratio. As you possibly can see from the desk above, his charges have been in the identical ballpark as these profession numbers in each 2021 and ’22, however by way of his first three months again, he was hitting much more grounders than flies; it’s solely in August that he’s approximated his profession fly ball charge.

Meanwhile, the place Harper has pulled the ball at a 38.6% charge for his profession, he was properly under that in May and June (the one actually unproductive month right here) however has been nearer to his norm in July and August. With these patterns in thoughts, right here’s a take a look at his month-to-month Statcast numbers:

As you possibly can see, Harper was properly under his typical common exit velocity, launch angle, and hard-hit charge till this month, although his barrel charge wasn’t far off from his Statcast-era common of 12.3%; he solely fell under that mark in July. His Statcast anticipated numbers have been truly fairly respectable all through these leaner months, however he fell considerably wanting his xSLG and xwOBA in his homerless June, a month when his contact stats have been stable if less than his profession requirements. He put up simply an 82 wRC+ in June, in comparison with 141 in May, 128 in July, and 212 thus far in August.

Digging deeper, Harper pulled simply 9 fly balls from May by way of July (5 in May, two apiece in June and July) and had only one double and three homers to indicate for it; all however one homer from that meager subset of extra-base hits was in May. By comparability, he’s pulled 9 fly balls in August alone, leading to 4 homers. His charge of pulled flies per batted ball has greater than tripled, from 4.4% earlier than August to 13.4% this month. His Statcast-era charge of pulled fly ball per batted ball is 8.7%, and he was at 8.6% in 2021, however slipped to 4.2% final yr amid his accidents.

All of which is to say that Harper is trying rather more like himself on the plate recently. His general batting line (.307/.400/.486, 140 wRC+) isn’t misplaced inside the ups and downs of his 12-year profession. He’s inside one level of his profession wRC+, even when his route there was an unfamiliar one, pushed by a career-high .381 BABIP however only a .180 ISO, his lowest mark since 2014. His general common exit velocity (91.6 mph), barrel charge (13.9%) and hard-hit charge (41.6%) are inside hairs of his profession averages, although his 113.7 mph most exit velocity is down 2.6 mph from two years in the past.

I went into this dig believing that Harper’s elbow had one thing to do along with his lack of energy, and perhaps it was a contributing issue, but when so, we haven’t heard a lot about it. He’s missed only one sport in every month he’s been again (extra on which momentarily). Based upon his sample of manufacturing, his enchancment could owe extra to raised mechanics in his decrease half, reminiscent of what NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Ricky Botallico not too long ago highlighted within the wake of a two-homer sport on August 17. But even that doesn’t clarify Harper occurring this tear whereas enjoying by way of again points. He left the workforce’s August 10 sport in opposition to the Twins after 4 innings as a result of again spasms, sat out the subsequent day earlier than returning to the lineup, and has DHed in 10 of his 13 video games since his absence. As not too long ago as August 23, he was nonetheless reporting again tightness.

When Harper hasn’t DHed, he’s performed first base, a place he had beforehand by no means performed professionally however considered one of clear want for the Phillies. Rhys Hoskins tore his left ACL throughout spring coaching, sidelining him for the season, and between Alec Bohm, Kody Clemens, and Darick Hall, the workforce’s manufacturing at first positioned it on the Replacement Level Killers record simply earlier than the commerce deadline. The Phillies started operating Harper by way of first base drills whereas he was rehabbing, however he didn’t make his debut there till July 23, and nonetheless has solely 15 video games on the place. That’s too small a pattern to get a real learn on his ability, however for what little it’s price, the metrics say he’s common there. The configuration — which made its first look since August 20 in Monday evening’s sport — permits the Phillies to place Kyle Schwarber at DH, one thing they supposed to do with frequency after they signed him final yr as a result of, properly, you’ve seen him play the outfield. Harper, whose personal defensive metrics in proper discipline have hardly been pristine, hasn’t performed within the pasture since April 16, 2022, shortly after he got here up in ache following a throw to the plate.

Harper the outfielder doesn’t look like within the workforce’s plans this yr, however proper now that’s of secondary significance to the Phillies, who’re on a pleasant roll. They’ve received 4 straight, six of seven, and 16 of 25 in August. After posting a 25-30 report by way of the top of May, they’re 48-28 (.632) since, good for the majors’ third-best report behind the Braves (52-22, .703) and Dodgers (47-26, .644). At 73-58 general, they’ve a four-game lead over the second NL Wild Card workforce, the Cubs (69-62), and that lead is vital, as a result of beneath the newish playoff format, the Phillies would play all three video games of the best-of-three Wild Card Series at dwelling.

Even whereas hitting .360/.448/.742 this month, Harper isn’t carrying the Phillies singlehandedly. Trea Turner (.313/.355/.606, 155 wRC+) has lastly emerged from a season-long hunch, Schwarber (.209/.378/.558, 148 wRC+) has been thumping, and each Phillie with at the very least 30 PA this month has a wRC+ of 100 or higher. Still, it’s reassuring to see Harper resume his spot on the heart of the thrill, as a result of he’s nearly as good when he’s within the highlight as any hitter within the sport.