Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/29/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon people, and welcome to the final August version of my chat for 2023!

Jay Jaffe: I’m a bit giddy as a result of as of 20 minutes in the past, we have now accepted provides on our present and future houses in Brooklyn

Jay Jaffe: it’s been a journey, people

Jay Jaffe: I’ve obtained a chunk on Bryce Harper’s resurgence that’s about to go stay

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, let’s get to this one…

HOF Harper?: With Bryce approaching 300 HRs and his profession being.. attention-grabbing(?) up to now with a pair superb seasons, a pair underwhelming seasons, and fairly a number of actually good not essentially nice seasons.. What is the view on him via your HOF lenses?

Jay Jaffe: The brief model is that he’s misplaced a while attributable to accidents, the pandemic, and whatnot, however he’s banked two MVP awards nonetheless, lastly reached a World Series (no small matter) and seems to be on the opposite facet of a severe damage now

Jay Jaffe: his profession/peak/JAWS (45.0/36.2/40.6) is slightly top-heavy due to his 9.7-WAR 2015, and he really has simply three five-win seasons, however that’s left him lots of low-hanging fruit inside that peak rating. With final night time’s homer, he’s now at 2.5 WAR, matching final 12 months for h is seventh-best season, so no matter he does via the remainder of the 12 months will increase that rating, and he very properly may attain 40.0 peak subsequent 12 months

Jay Jaffe: which as I’ve famous, typically means a future HOFer

TKDC: Ha-Seong Kim is a free agent after subsequent 12 months, is he going to signal for $250 million and informal sports followers are going to say “who the hell is that guy?”

Jay Jaffe: No, I don’t assume he’s going to get that sort of cash, as a result of a lot of his worth is tied up in protection, and since he doesn’t hit the ball that onerous.

Jay Jaffe: Wouldn’t shock me if he breaks 9 figures IF his 2024 seems to be like his 2023, but when he regresses to 2022 type, that can put a damper on issues

Fletcher: Do you assume all-star appearances from the double all-star recreation years needs to be counted as 1 per 12 months or is Stan Musial and Willie Mays having extra all-star appearances than seasons an excessive amount of enjoyable?

Jay Jaffe: It’s humorous that there have been solely 4 years during which two All-Star Games had been performed (1959-62), but it surely was such a golden age that lots of inner-circle sorts had been affected. In the Cooperstown Casebook I solely single-counted All-Star years; more often than not, the rosters had been fairly related for each video games.

paulie Eff: This time of 12 months ROS projections quantity to at least one week, when you’re preventing for a playoff spot.  Is it acceptable to chop a struggling future HoF catcher like Sal Perez on a morbid Royals membership for a man on a scorching streak with a equally scorching staff round him, like Cal Raleigh?

Jay Jaffe: you completely misplaced me by placing “future HOF catcher” and “Sal Perez” in the identical sentence.

Jay Jaffe: and to not go all pedantic however I feel you imply moribund slightly than morbid, although i suppose that might describe the Royals too

Jay Jaffe: I don’t actually take care of fantasy questions a lot however I’d say punt on Perez and go along with Raleigh. how dangerous can it’s?

Phil: Is the title a Kinks reference? If so, favorite album?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, thanks for noticing! I’m unsure whether or not I’d name Village Green Preservation Society my favourite Kinks album but it surely’s on the brief listing together with Something Else and Face to Face, with Muswell Hillbillies simply outdoors that body

JC: Sad final couple of weeks for baseball however a ton of cool articles have come out on FG not too long ago to assist me from getting too down in regards to the season.

Jay Jaffe: Glad you’re having fun with it! I’m constantly impressed by the standard of the work coming from my colleagues. It pushes me to work more durable, for positive.

Sean: If Julio retains this up, can he get into the MVP dialog?

Jay Jaffe: It’s nice to see what Julio is doing however the AL MVP award is sort of actually going to Ohtani, fairly in all probability unanimously

Byron Denniston: What are your ideas on The Future of TJ surgical procedure?

Jay Jaffe: as long as velocity drives the equation in scouting — a scenario solely exacerbated by the contraction of the minor leagues, because it means fewer pitchers have room to develop — the long run can be filled with TJs. I’m hopeful that surgeons are getting higher at TJ revisions since we appear to be getting much more high-profile pitchers receiving extra of them, and that not less than a few of the conditions wind up having the ability to use the UCL inside brace process, sort of a TJ lite with much less time to get better.

Gold Star for Robot Boy: With Gonsolin and Dustin May out for 2024, Kershaw at even odds to both return, retire, or signal with the Rangers, and Ohtani’s future as a pitcher doubtful, what do the Dodgers do for a rotation subsequent season?

Jay Jaffe: /me heads to bullpen

Jay Jaffe: I feel they choose up Lance Lynn’s choice, challenge a qualifying provide to Urías and hope that he accepts (loads of incentive to take action, esp since he received’t be capable of get a 2nd one), pray that they will coax Kershaw again and get perhaps 120 good innings out of Buehler. Miller and Pepiot each enjoying massive roles, with Stone and/or Grove on the outskirts (a commerce of a type of wouldn’t shock me)

Mike M: Hey Jay, I’m nonetheless in mourning over the Shohei TJ information.  I’m very VERY afraid that he’ll simply by no means be peak Shohei once more.  No query right here. Just needed a shoulder to cry on.

Jay Jaffe: I hear you. It’s a bummer! The excellent news is that Ohtani remains to be an elite hitter, and given time to get better ought to resume being one. As for the pitching, we’re all going to have to carry our breaths for the following 12 months and hope all of it unfolds properly. The necessary factor with a 2nd TJ — if certainly that’s what he wants — is to not rush again, and he’s fairly properly positioned for that assuming he doesn’t attempt to work as much as recreation pace in 2024

Eric: Any ideas on how Wilmer Flores is having a profession 12 months at age 31?

Jay Jaffe: No, not likely. he’s not hitting the ball very laborious in any respect, however is 91 factors forward of his .447 xSLG. Deserves a better look

Sodo Mojo: Given that top faculty catchers are hardly ever profitable transitioning to the key leagues and the restricted shelf lifetime of elite catchers as a result of rigors of the place do you see corridor of fame catchers turning into more and more uncommon as we transfer ahead?

Jay Jaffe: I feel so much goes to rely upon the timeline and type of the approaching robotic umps. Right now it seems to be far much less possible we’ll get a full computerized ball and strike system, which might have turned framing right into a factor of the previous, and extra possible we’ll get a problem system. It stays to be seen how the rule modifications relating to elevated stolen base charges affect the expertise pool, as in if we see extra robust throwing arms tracked there. But I’m not terribly anxious about the way forward for the place

Guest: Jay, with free company and the upper frequency of blockbuster trades do you see extra gamers going into the corridor with no emblem on their caps. Verlander, Betts, Arenado, Freeman, and Goldschmidt being some potentialities of the highest of my head.

Jay Jaffe: it could by no means shock me if extra gamers go that route. lately we’ve seen Maddux, Mussina, Halladay, McGriff and LaRussa go in logo-free, whereas I feel Catfish Hunter was the one fashionable participant earlier than that (gamers from the sooner days and Negro Leagues don’t typically have them)

Jay Jaffe: But Betts will put on an LA, mark my phrases

Guest: Vlad Jr. will in all probability be at $20-22 million in arbitration subsequent 12 months. Disregarding age, what would his skillset get on a one-year deal in free company? I’m considering David Ortiz, who was getting $15 million on short-term contracts close to the top, however that was a number of years in the past and will not be an excellent comparable!

Jay Jaffe: That’s a superb query. Given his offensive and defensive woes,  his worth is falling; that 6.3-WAR 2021 season feels prefer it was half a decade in the past. Something within the $25 million vary wouldn’t shock on a one-off, however except he begins trending upwards I don’t see him getting a lot increased than that or getting a long-term deal at a better AAV

sandwiches4ever: Every PA given to Josh Donaldson — if he returns — is a wasted alternative for the Yankees. Would they must DFA him if he had been cleared to play and didn’t wish to reinstate him to the roster?

Jay Jaffe: I truthfully assume a DFA is the place that is headed. I’m not sure if no permitting him to undergo the conventional rehab task course of can be grounds for a grievance, however at greatest it’s in all probability going to be a mini-showcase for him to audition for one more staff. I feel even the Yankees understand it’s time to maneuver on

Keith C: Who in 23’ stunned you relating to anticipated rebounds that changed into sustained declines, and vice versa, guys who pulled out of tailspins that appeared everlasting?

Jay Jaffe: I’m additionally stunned that Javier Báez hasn’t turned issues round and has as a substitute dug a deeper gap

NL MVP: Mookie or Acuna? Who ya obtained at this exact second in time?
For a extra nuanced view, how do you, personally, outline “valuable” by way of the NL 2023 version of this award? Both groups are juggernauts working away with their divisions (for now, not less than)

Jay Jaffe: Over the previous couple of weeks i’ve began to lean Betts. I really like Acuña and there’s little doubt he’s placing up a season for the ages along with his HR/SB combo, and it’s not like he’s cooled off on the plate after his scorching begin. His April and August wRC+ are inside a number of factors of one another and likewise his 1st/2nd half

Jay Jaffe: But

Jay Jaffe: What Betts has accomplished, shifting again to the center infield and enjoying shortstop like he’s Lindor’s little brother has been outstanding. The flexibility he’s afforded the Dodgers has accomplished so much to stretch a roster that’s thinner than standard, and he’s taken over the WAR lead and NL wRC+ lead alongside the way in which. Given how all of that helped flip the Dodgers from a staff that was uncharacteristically chasing first place into one which  more and more has the division salted away, I feel that breaks what is kind of a tie for me on the worth query

Pumpsie: As a company, do you are expecting the Orioles will act extra just like the Rays or the Astros? Like the Rays, their youth is a little bit of an phantasm as they slow-played some guys within the minors; just like the Astros, they tanked up on excessive draft picks. The Astros spent cash out of these darkish years; the Rays simply carry on Ray-ing. Are latest O’s possession feedback a smokescreen?

Jay Jaffe: I feel they’re extra just like the Rays by way of their perception of how far they will stretch a greenback and the way little they’re prepared to spend, however John Angelos is extra filled with shit than both of the opposite two groups’ homeowners — which is saying one thing

Aaron: I’ve been fascinated about which HoF participant had probably the most notable damage historical past that they needed to overcome within the context of fascinated about Ohtani’s now two elbow accidents. Does anybody come to thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have a simple offhand reply however one which strikes me is Jim Palmer lacking most of his age-21 and all of his age-22 season (1967-68) with arm issues within the days earlier than Tommy John or rotator cuff surgical procedure had been actual choices

Iron man: What do you take into account the minimal variety of video games to say a participant performed a “full season”? In 2022 there have been certified batters with <120 video games. I really feel like 120 video games is just not a “full season”, however I’m unsure the place I draw the road. Maybe 130 video games, which is 80% of the season? Even that appears low, a participant may miss a full month and nonetheless play 130 video games.

Jay Jaffe: it’s a semantics factor that I don’t have terribly robust emotions about however I’d say 130ish video games is fairly full

Jay Jaffe: it permits for an damage absence or perhaps some aches and pains however a staff doesn’t must go loopy overlaying for that lengthy

Guest: When does the SP HOF correction lastly come? Today, there are 4 energetic, apparent, conventional alternatives for HOF SPs (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke). Compare that to 1980, there have been not less than a dozen guys nonetheless energetic who had undeniably earned HOF induction. I feel guys like Tim Hudson (superb for a very long time) or Sale/Degrom (otherworldly for a short time) needs to be thought of HOF-worthy given the change in pitcher utilization over the previous 30 years or so

Jay Jaffe: if it’s going to occur i believe it begins retrospectively with a few of the guys I’ve highlighted previously corresponding to Hershiser, Cone,  Stieb and Santana. The drawback with that’s that it is dependent upon the bottlnecks that the Hall has imposed upon the Era Committee course of to subside, and I simply don’t assume that’s within the playing cards anytime quickly

Re: BROOKLYN: Congrats on accepting/closing!!

Jay Jaffe: Oh, we’re not even near closing. Just stated sure to a proposal on our place and had somebody say sure to the provide we made. Closing would occur through the playoffs — good factor I received’t have to fret about overlaying the Yankees or Mets in individual then LOL

Guest: Any ideas on Marcus Semien as an out of doors probability to get to HOF ?

Matt VW: Bill Simmons began his newest podcast by calling the Mookie Betts deal “the worst Boston sports trade of [his] lifetime.” I get it may look even worse with the passing of time, however for now it’s nonetheless obtained to be Bagwell for Andersen, no?

Jay Jaffe: I feel that’s nonetheless a good place however there was no emotion tied up in shedding Bagwell, who was a whole unknown on the time besides perhaps to prospect heads, and Larry Andersen didn’t linger round Boston to remind individuals of their folly. Betts was beloved in Boston and Verdugo is a promising participant but in addition a headache and a half, so I perceive Simmons’ place

Zombocom: And I’m giddy as a result of the mariners are in first place. This 12 months’s staff is unquestionably higher than final 12 months’s, however there’s sufficient time left within the season to be troubled about whether or not or not they will maintain this up. As an neutral and skilled observer of baseball, do you assume they appear like a contender?

Jay Jaffe: sure, albeit one with some holes. But I actually do like their rotation greater than most different contenders’ they usually’re lots of enjoyable to observe lately

Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Hi Jay – it’s August 29 and all thirty managers that began the 12 months are nonetheless managing their staff.  Is this notable?

Jay Jaffe: Not significantly. You solely have to return to 2021 to discover a season the place all 30 managers made it via the season, and 2017 earlier than that. We’re about to hit the purpose the place we see a may see a number of early dismissals

Teoscar Hernández: Do you assume he will get a QO from the Mariners after this season?

Jay Jaffe: No. trending downward from that 2020-21 excessive, strong participant however I don’t see the Mariners going there

mac: it could be insane for the yankees to jettison gleyber torres to open up a spot for oswald peraza except they’re planning a complete teardown, no?

Jay Jaffe: Torres is a 12 months away from free company and will nonetheless in all probability fetch an honest return in commerce, so I don’t assume it’s insane however I additionally don’t assume it’s a transfer the Yankees are more likely to do.

Scott: Ohtani to M’s this low season makes much more sense now, proper?  Deep sufficient in pitching he can hit whereas rehabbing the arm and will get to play with Julio.

Jay Jaffe: Honesty there’s just a few groups that make sense to me as suitors for him, specifically the Dodgers, Giants, and Mariners. Sure the Angels will strive, however the wreckage of his run with them will loom massive, and I don’t see both the Mets or Yankees being actual gamers for him given the state of their rosters. The Cubs, in the event that they determine to decide to spending so much, is likely to be the X issue, however I’m unsure they will persuade Ohtani to depart the west coast.

v2micca: Tangential to Bryce Harper, I’ve observed that amongst energetic gamers at present on a corridor of fame trajectory, only a few of them had been high 10 picks.  It looks like, despite the advances of sabre metrics, entrance workplaces nonetheless actually battle to constantly determine the very best future gamers within the draft when in comparison with different sports leagues.

Jay Jaffe: Cole (1st), Correa (1st), Verlander (2nd), Machado (third), Greinke (sixth), Kershaw (seventh), and Lindor (eighth) stand out as top-10 picks who seem like on the way in which, however as we all know, drafting is one thing of a crapshoot and all the time has been; it took 23 years for a staff to decide on a future Hall of Famer at #1 (Griffey)

Jay Jaffe: i believe a part of the issue is groups drafting excessive up are sometimes terrified of the bonus calls for and so gamers fall out of the highest 10. if the highest 10 picks had been judged solely by long-term future potential, the draft would look completely different

Jesse: Where is the brand new place, Jay?

Jay Jaffe: roughly the divide between Windsor Terrace and Kensington, between Prospect Park and the baseball-famous Greenwood Cemetary

Jay Jaffe: Further out than I ever thought I’d go however I used to be pleasantly stunned on the property we discovered

Brotz13: I do know that the Orioles had been projected to be sub-.500 this 12 months as a result of they’d already jumped from 52-110 (2021) to 83-79 (2022), and groups usually regress after such a leap. They simply received #82 final night time, with 31 left to play. Is this an unprecedented run of enchancment?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a greater query for Dan

glt4dc: Why is Schwarber this 12 months thought of to be barely a constructive WAR-producing participant (0.5) in comparison with final season (2.7)?  His defensive metrics are somewhat worse(r), his AVG is 30 factors decrease and his SLG has additionally dropped.  But he’s on observe for the same # of HRs and R with final 12 months?

Jay Jaffe: HR and Run totals don’t matter. What does is his park-adjusted manufacturing, and he’s dropped from a 129 wRC+ to 111, with worse fielding metrics and worse baserunning too. Total catastrophe of a season

Tiger Fan: Would it’s doable for Shohei Ohtani to be thought of the very best baseball participant ever with out placing up the counting statistics of previous baseball interior sanctum HOF gamers (Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and so forth)?

Jay Jaffe: it is dependent upon what we’re speaking about after we use the phrase “best.” He’s an unprecedented mixture of pitching and hitting talent deployed contemporaneously, and he’s doing it to far superior competitors than Ruth (segregated) or the offense-only guys (Aaron, Mays, and even Bonds). But if one values longevity, that’s not unreasonable, and he’s not there but

RAGBRAI: Are SBs approach up or about what’s was count on? Do you see this development proceed subsequent 12 months? Will these modifications and SB numbers be checked out just like the “juiced” ball period HRs?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know that there was a common expectation for the place SB would head however SB per recreation is up 39%, which is a fairly large leap, and I don’t see something with imminent rule modifications that makes it more likely to stop. it’s powerful to guess how this era can be perceived one 12 months into what could very properly be an open-ended interval that final years

Jay Jaffe: OK people, time go to inform the 7-year-old kiddo she’s getting a yard. Thanks a lot for stopping by at present!

Jay Jaffe: Whoops, this can be a actually good query I’m simply gonna depart right here with a really transient reply:

El Tim: Since your final chat Mookie has handed Shoeless Joe and Frank Robinson in RF peak worth. He ought to get by Mel Ott for fifth within the subsequent few days and his ROS projection places him forward of Clemente. Those are positive some names. He’s additionally now the betting favourite for MVP. He’s by no means fairly acquired the “we’re lucky to be alive to witness this” reverence of Trout or Ohtani, however my phrase. Assuming he hits these milestones, how a lot would this season have an effect on your perspective on his place in baseball historical past?

Jay Jaffe: Whether or not he wins MVP, I feel we’re beginning to see Mookie’s legacy come into focus. He’s been a famous person in two locations, enjoying MVP-caliber ball and driving his staff within the path of championships, and if he’s not at Trout/Ohtani ranges, he’s actually working in the direction of turning into a type of slam-dunk first poll guys

Jay Jaffe: OK, signing off for actual now