Go Rate, and the Pursuit of Whatever’s Past Perfection

If you loved final week’s Buntpalooza, you’re going to like this, as a result of I’m making up new stats once more.

Let’s begin with Rickey Henderson. You in all probability know that in 1982, Rickey set a still-unchallenged single-season file of 130 stolen bases. Which is so much. Of course it’s so much; this was the highest-volume season by the very best basestealer who ever lived. I simply referred to him as “Rickey,” as a result of he was so nice he can go by his first identify on first reference, like “LeBron” or “Tiger” or “Weird Al.”

Nevertheless, I fear that we don’t respect how extraordinarily so much 130 stolen bases is in a single season. One approach to have a look at it’s in distance; 172 stolen base makes an attempt (Rickey additionally bought caught a league-high 42 occasions that 12 months), at 90 ft every, constitutes virtually three miles of floor lined. The man ran the very best a part of a 5K in stolen base makes an attempt alone.

In 1982, Rickey registered 656 plate appearances and 143 hits, together with 10 house runs and 4 triples. Let’s take these away, as a result of you possibly can’t steal a base after hitting a house run, and whilst you can theoretically steal a base after hitting a triple, come on, this isn’t the Nineties and also you’re not Sliding Billy Hamilton. That leaves Rickey with 130 stolen bases on 129 hits that would’ve given him an opportunity to steal a base.

Baseball Reference is variety sufficient to rely what number of occasions a participant reaches base in a given season. This is instructive for Rickey, as a result of whereas he hit simply .267 in his record-setting marketing campaign, he led the majors in walks with 116, giving him an OBP of .398. We’re not simply hits, in brief. B-Ref has Rickey with 274 occasions on base, together with errors, in 1982. Subtract the 14 house runs and triples and also you’re left with 260 of what I’ll name stolen base alternatives. That means Rickey was on base 260 occasions and tried to steal virtually two-thirds of the time: 66.1%, to be precise. From right here on, I’ll be referring to this ratio as “Go Rate,” as a result of I couldn’t in good conscience commit any extra time to pondering of a humorous backronym like PECOTA or CORSI.

The weak spot in go fee, which I’ll tackle up entrance, is that it doesn’t account for various situations by which a batter-runner may very well be in place to steal, or exclude situations by which he’s blocked. For occasion, occasions on base doesn’t embrace situations of a batter reaching on a fielder’s alternative with the bottom in entrance of him empty. Nor does it debit situations of the batter reaching, solely to seek out the bottom in entrance of him occupied. For Rickey, that wasn’t all the time an issue, as Tony Phillips and Davey Lopes spent loads of time on the backside of Oakland’s lineup in 1982, thus inviting a double steal. But ordinarily, you don’t run if the bottom forward already has somebody standing on it.

If, for some purpose, you bear in mind my May article about Esteury Ruiz’s uncommon on-base potential and unusually aggressive baserunning, you’ll recall that I went by way of his plate appearances one-by-one and weeded these instances out. For a number of weeks’ price of 1 participant’s season, that’s possible. But for the 379 place gamers who’d appeared in 50 or extra video games by way of this weekend, that’s a tall order. Generalities should do for now.

What makes the Rickey Henderson season so ridiculous is the mixture of aggressiveness and quantity of on-base alternatives; the person performed 149 video games, virtually all the time hit leadoff, and was among the many finest on-base guys within the league. But two gamers this season are beating Rickey’s 1982 go fee, albeit in additional restricted alternatives:

Between this and his look atop the bunt leaderboard, Velazquez must be probably the most John McGraw participant within the league proper now. Sixteen stolen base makes an attempt out of twenty-two alternatives is a ridiculous quantity. If there weren’t a pitch clock in place, a pitcher might simply maintain the ball and anticipate Velasquez to get bored and take off for second.

(And as a result of Velazquez solely had 94 plate appearances once I made this chart, I went again and counted manually each time he reached base with the bag in entrance of him unoccupied: Eight walks, seven singles, three fielder’s selections, two doubles, and a strikeout/wild pitch, for 21 whole alternatives. So the stolen base alternatives column won’t be correct right down to the final decimal, nevertheless it’ll get us within the proverbial ballpark.)

What I like about Velazquez on this listing is the truth that he isn’t even a very good basestealer or perhaps a runner. He’s completely nice in each instances — 77th percentile dash pace and a 13-for-16 success fee that’s only a tick over the league common — however little about Velazquez’s recreation means that he must be operating the bases like Vince Coleman after three Red Bulls.

Blanco, the following participant up, makes somewhat extra sense; he’s bought a centesimal percentile pace, which is the great things. That’s some Bobby Witt Jr., Corbin Carroll, Elly De La Cruz motion. Of course this man must be operating all over even when 18-for-23 (and 19-for-24 for his profession) isn’t a standout steal fee. Blanco’s place right here brings again recollections of the absurd group pace the mid-2010s Royals had; Lorenzo Cain was the third-fastest outfielder on the playoff roster. Or the 1980 Royals, who had Frank White and Amos Otis, and in addition Willie Wilson, who stole as many bases as White and Otis put collectively.

At the opposite terminus of the Johnny Damon Highway comes the primary high-volume outlier: Ruiz, who’s tried 68 steals out of 131 alternatives, which is an absurd go fee of .519. As we get out of the highest 4, the gaps on the leaderboard begin to relax, and it turns into clear {that a} go fee within the neighborhood of .300 signifies an aggressive basestealer. Just as in Kansas City, there’s one thing within the water in Oakland’s outfield: not simply Henderson, however Rajai Davis and Coco Crisp. Even Starling Marte went 25-for-27 on stolen base makes an attempt within the 56 video games he spent in inexperienced.

Not to beat the identical lifeless horse about Ruiz, however I’m so blissful he’s doing this. The A’s are on their approach out of city; the group would possibly lose 110 video games. Ruiz was the massive shiny offseason acquisition in a three-way commerce that delivered All-Stars to a number of National League contenders; Ruiz, at this level, is form of a poor man’s Marquis Grissom? A destitute man’s Starling Marte, maybe.

Life is like Ozzie Albies hitting right-handed: It is brief, and it’s brutal. There are two methods you possibly can go together with that data. You might quit and cellphone it in, realizing none of it issues. Or you can determine that, as a result of none of it issues, you would possibly as effectively get your giggles in whilst you can. Why shouldn’t Ruiz run a go fee over .500 in excessive quantity? What’s the worst that may occur? He will get caught? The A’s lose? Please.

In that spirit, let’s discover the gamers who’re dedicated to operating regardless of the outcomes. These are the six gamers who’re not less than a full run under common in BsR and have a below-average SB%, and but are within the prime 100 in go fee:

Realmuto’s a bizarre case, as a result of final 12 months he virtually set the file for many stolen bases in a season with out being caught. (Jon Berti, final season’s main league stolen base chief, very practically made this listing as effectively.) Chase Utley holds the file over a full season with 23; Realmuto was 21-for-21 final 12 months when he bought thrown out on his ultimate stolen base try of the common season within the Phillies’ a hundred and sixtieth recreation of the 12 months. Trea Turner is at present 26-for-26 in 2023; we’ll get to him in a minute. Conversely, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Henry Davis are having a horrendous time on the basepaths. It’s like all of the stolen base luck in Pennsylvania rolled east.

Then there’s Springer, who at 19-for-24 is a rounding error under league common however is definitely having among the best basestealing years of his profession. The largest distinction in Springer’s recreation since transferring to Toronto three years in the past is that he’s really an honest share basestealer now; in seven seasons with the Astros he was 48-for-79, which is mystifyingly unhealthy for a participant as quick as Springer was in his youth. With the Blue Jays, he’s now 37-for-45, which is positively respectable. But as Leo Morgenstern wrote final week, pace isn’t every little thing in relation to baserunning.

As you would possibly count on, the highest of the go fee leaderboard options a number of gamers who know what they’re doing. These gamers are within the prime 100 in go fee, with a SB% of 90 or higher and a BsR of 4.0 or higher:

These are the very best baserunners, and the very best high-volume basestealers, within the sport. And you realize what? A couple of of them might stand to be somewhat extra aggressive on the basepaths. Turner particularly. Obviously what he’s doing is spectacular, doubtlessly even record-setting. Utley is probably the most environment friendly basestealer of all time, and being extra good than him isn’t any small feat. More than that, Turner is in a lineup with a number of guys who can drive you in from any base, so possibly he must be somewhat extra conservative than somebody like Ruiz.

But the quantity I hold coming again to with Turner is from 2012, his freshman 12 months at NC State. That season, Turner stole 57 bases in 61 makes an attempt in 63 video games. Even Rickey Henderson can be impressed by that stage of get-up-and-go.

The factor about 26-for-26, and even 30-for-30 if Turner will get there, is that I doubt Turner has chosen to run in the one favorable conditions that offered themselves. At the danger of drawing a fraught comparability between division rivals, take into account Acuña:

Here now we have two of the very best high-volume basestealers within the league. And as a result of Phillies followers all realized the identical lesson from Ted Lasso final month and turned Turner into Jimmie Foxx, each Acuña and Turner are each within the midst of particular power-speed combo seasons as effectively.

Maybe that is an unfair query to ask, as a result of it’s not possible to separate Acuña’s baserunning from his MVP-worthy marketing campaign on the plate, however I’ll ask anyway: Which of those seasons are you going to recollect 5 or 10 years from now?

From a baserunning perspective solely, Turner is the one on tempo to set a file, and he’s been a barely higher runner total. But Acuña is doing one thing spectacular; he referred to as his shot for 50-50, and whereas he received’t get there, 40-70 is in play and that’s not a nasty comfort prize.

There’s one thing alluring about how in-your-face Acuña’s season is. (You’ll discover this chart is barely old-fashioned. That’s as a result of Acuña tried to steal twice whereas I used to be writing this text.) He’s forcing the motion greater than all however a handful of baserunners. I feel there’s an artistry to Turner’s (thus far) good basestealing season, and no person with half a mind would accuse him of being a boring participant. But I desire a participant along with his apparent presents to be as aggressive as attainable.

Stolen bases are extra frequent this season than they’ve been in any 12 months since 1997. Some of that has to do with the rule adjustments, which I supported largely as a result of they could result in exactly this consequence. But it’s additionally as a result of gamers like Ruiz and Acuña have determined to run like hell. That’s what I need from this sport: Aggressiveness, risk-taking, forcing the difficulty. Whether it’s good or protected or not.

In 1982, Henderson not solely stole extra bases than anybody earlier than or since, he additionally grew to become the one participant because the stat was recorded to be caught stealing 40 or extra occasions in a season. Among gamers with 100 or extra profession makes an attempt, Utley isn’t any. 1 in SB%. Turner is fourth. Henderson is 51st. Only one among them is the consensus finest basestealer of all time.

Efficiency is nice. Perfection is even higher. But generally perfection leaves you wanting extra.