Germán Márquez Indicators Two-Year Deal To Keep in Colorado

On Friday, the Rockies and beginning pitcher Germán Márquez agreed on phrases to a two-year contract extension value a assured $20 million. This was a misplaced season for Márquez, as an elbow damage and eventual Tommy John surgical procedure resulted in him solely making 4 begins. Unsurprisingly for a pitcher struggling a significant damage, the second yr of his new deal is closely incentivized, with two roster bonuses and three inning bonuses. Márquez is anticipated to overlook the primary half of the 2024 season, but when he throws 160 innings in 2025, he’ll web a cool $22 million for the season. The contract additionally features a $1 million task bonus, paid by his new staff if the Rockies ought to commerce him.

An elbow damage that requires a scalpel is rarely a welcome signal for anybody, however for Márquez, initially a free agent this fall, it was a very laborious blow. The hope had been that he would bounce again from a pedestrian 2022 season that noticed his FIP balloon to almost 5 and his strikeout charge fall about 10% from 2021. While my ideas on how the Rockies have been run since, nicely, 1993 are well-known, he was considered one of their largest coups in franchise historical past. It’s laborious to show the Rays incorrect on a younger pitcher, however that the Rockies did, selecting up Márquez and Jake McGee from Tampa Bay for Corey Dickerson and Kevin Padlo in 2016. Despite being solely 28, he already looms giant in Rockies historical past.

Jiménez’s three-year peak as an elite pitcher makes him the king of the mountain, however Márquez is just a pair good months behind him. When you contemplate offense as nicely (Márquez was as soon as a Silver Slugger), the latter is already the chief. And whereas I can’t count on anybody in Denver to understand this, it actually issues to me that my most up-to-date reminiscence of Márquez isn’t Buck Showalter throwing him right into a playoff recreation for no specific cause.

Lest you assume Márquez’s lofty standing is me damning the Rockies with faint reward, he’s lengthy been one of many best-projected younger pitchers in ZiPS WAR:

Naturally, his place within the rankings dropped as he failed to keep up his 2018 strikeout charge, however a few of the decline is pure as a result of having fewer tomorrows remaining. With the sort of bounceback that ZiPS anticipated, he would have been a reasonably good payday in free company. Here’s what his long-term projections for 2024 and past appeared like earlier than the beginning of 2023. I’m utilizing a impartial park for this one since Coors Field is… difficult.

Based on that projection, ZiPS beneficial a seven-year, $126 million extension or $116 million over six years. That’s not Gerrit Cole cash and displays the elevated threat stemming from his 2022, however 9 figures can purchase a powerful haul of products and/or companies. It actually would have been a greater use of cash than, say, signing an ageing third baseman from the Cubs to play left subject for $182 million.

I went forward and informed ZiPS that Márquez has missed time as a result of Tommy John surgical procedure (I usually do that after the season) and re-ran the numbers.

ZiPS would have recommended two years at $18.2 million, however the distinction between that and $20 million, within the context of MLB, is principally nothing. In any case, the truth that he’s a pitcher who has survived Coors Field is sort of actually value a bit more money, even when ZiPS isn’t particularly valuing that right here. In different phrases, the Rockies made a transfer that I can not complain about.

Where does Márquez match into the way forward for the Rockies? That’s a a lot trickier query. While the most effective outcome for him is that he makes a grand return subsequent July and returns to his 2017–21 peak type, leading to him getting that $100 million contract in a few years, I’m unsure the Rockies will take fullest benefit of this sunny situation. If the group goes to turn out to be aggressive once more, it has numerous work to do, and Márquez rocking the NL inside out in 2025 probably makes him extra priceless to the Rockies by way of who they will purchase for him slightly than his precise efficiency.

Trading veterans, particularly veterans who had an vital previous within the story of the franchise, at all times seems to be psychologically troublesome for Colorado’s possession. But that’s an issue for the long run Rockies. The staff made an excellent transfer in extending Márquez to a low-risk, high-upside contract, and that’s ok for me to pause my grumbling.