Is Drew Smyly Lastly Making Up Misplaced Floor?

Perhaps it’s too quickly to say that Drew Smyly has turned his season round from the bullpen, however he’s actually heading in the right direction. In 22 begins this yr, he pitched to a 5.40 ERA and a 5.32 FIP. Opposing batters slashed .274/.337/.501 towards him; in different phrases, he turned the common hitter into Austin Riley. On the flip facet, Smyly has a 3.72 ERA and three.41 FIP in 19.1 innings of aid. Over the previous month, he has seemed even higher. The small pattern measurement disclaimer applies, besides, his 2.61 ERA and a pair of.29 FIP are notable. His opponents are slashing .237/.293/.421; that’s much less Riley and extra Hunter Renfroe.

As a starter, Smyly wasn’t a giant strikeout risk. Yet, as a reliever, he has struck out 27 of the 80 batters he has confronted. That’s a 33.8% strikeout price, or 12.57 Okay/9. Since his first aid look on July 22, he ranks among the many prime ten certified NL relievers in each metrics. Even higher, he has upped his strikeouts with out giving out any extra free passes. His 8.0% stroll price was run-of-the-mill for a beginning pitcher, however his 7.5% price is considerably higher than common for a bullpen arm.

The pitch-level information helps to elucidate Smyly’s transformation right into a strikeout artist. He’s throwing all three of his pitches with elevated velocity and utilizing his finest whiff pitch, his curveball, extra usually. His zone price is up, as is his chase price, and in consequence, he’s incomes extra whiffs and first-pitch strikes.

Now that I’ve totally impressed you with tales of Drew Smyly reborn, it’s time to return clear. The veteran southpaw’s efficiency as a reliever isn’t the actual purpose I’m writing about him as we speak. As good as he’s been, I must see greater than 11 appearances earlier than I dub him the subsequent Dennis Eckersley. But whereas I used to be evaluating Smyly’s stats between the bullpen and rotation, one quantity stood out greater than every other — greater than the speed, greater than the walks, and much more than the strikeouts.

Pitching out of the bullpen, Smyly has upped his groundball price. Groundball pitchers aren’t inherently higher than fly ball pitchers, however in his case, retaining the ball on the bottom is a great concept. Not solely do the Cubs have among the finest infield defenses within the league, however Smyly has additionally had fairly a little bit of bother retaining the ball within the yard. His 1.83 HR/9 as a starter ranks ninth-highest within the majors (min. 100 IP).

What’s extra, Smyly hasn’t simply elevated his groundball price; he has elevated it by a whopping 7%. That’s the distinction between the common starter and Justin Steele, one of many premier groundball pitchers within the National League. Yet even so, Smyly’s groundball price as a reliever is nonetheless under league common. Just how low was his groundball price as a starter? Let’s simply say it may very well be a track by Flo Rida that includes T-Pain. Among all beginning pitchers this season (min. 100 IP), solely 9 others have induced a groundball on one-third or fewer of balls put in play. And even amongst that group, Smyly stands alone:

Smyly is the one one who throws a sinker as his major fastball. Indeed, he’s one in all solely two major sinker-ballers (together with Kyle Freeland) to have a groundball price under 40%. He’s additionally the one starter with a groundball price under league common who doesn’t throw a four-seam fastball in any respect. Sinkers are likely to induce groundballs; subsequently, the pitchers who throw them are usually groundball pitchers. But not Smyly.

If you’re conversant in Smyly’s arsenal, you would possibly level out that whereas he makes use of a sinker as his major fastball, his major pitch is definitely his curveball. Yet exterior of a sinker, no pitch kind generates extra groundballs than a curve. Among the 58 starters (min. 100 IP) who throw a curveball or a knuckle curve at the least 10% of the time, solely Max Scherzer has a decrease groundball price than Smyly, and Smyly makes use of his curve about 4 occasions as usually as Scherzer.

The sinker and curveball account for slightly below 90% of all Smyly’s pitches, and his groundball price is under league common on each. As a starter this season, he had a 37% GB% on his curve and a 29.1% GB% on his sinker; league common is about 46% and 55%, respectively. Clearly, his sinker is the true wrongdoer, though his curveball isn’t serving to issues. Of all of the beginning pitchers who’ve given up at the least 10 groundballs on sinkers this yr, none has a decrease groundball price than Smyly. This isn’t a brand new improvement, both. Over the final 5 years, he has a 30.5% groundball price on the pitch.

So what makes his sinker distinctive? For one factor, Smyly doesn’t find it within the typical vogue. Of all of the sinkers he threw within the strike zone throughout his time as a starter, 43.6% have been positioned within the higher third; league common is 23.6%. What’s extra, all these excessive pitches got here on the expense of sinkers down low. Only 16.7% of his sinkers within the zone have been within the decrease third towards a league common of 42.2%. And as you would possibly count on, excessive sinkers don’t generate practically as many balls on the bottom:

The numbers are much more excessive exterior the strike zone. Of all of the sinkers Smyly threw exterior the zone, 83.8% have been on the higher half of the realm surrounding the strike zone — practically twice the league common. He solely threw 62 outside-the-zone sinkers on the decrease half, and opposing hitters solely swung at eight. Of these eight swings, solely two led to balls in play, and neither was a grounder. Overall, Smyly had a 19.4% groundball price on sinkers exterior the strike zone, which is even decrease than his groundball price on pitches in the zone. For most pitchers, the alternative is true; getting batters to chase at a sinker may be one of the best ways to generate groundballs.

With all that mentioned, location nonetheless can’t clarify all the things. Smyly’s groundball price is under league common up excessive, down low, and in every single place in between. No matter what, it simply doesn’t generate groundballs like an abnormal sinker. And why is that? Because it isn’t abnormal. Smyly is one in all solely 4 pitchers with at the least -5.0 inches of vertical and horizontal motion (vs. common) on his sinker. He’s in a area of his personal on the chart under:

Indeed, his sinker strikes quite a bit like a typical four-seam fastball. For comparability, right here’s the way it appears subsequent to Paul Blackburn’s four-seam, a pitch with comparable velocity. Smyly’s sinker has extra arm-side run, however the two pitches have practically similar vertical motion. Yet whereas Blackburn’s four-seam is completely common, Smyly’s sinker is a complete outlier:

His sinker lacks drop as a result of it spins on such a vertical axis; extra particularly, he throws it with backspin, permitting the pitch to withstand the pull of gravity. It’s exactly the dropping motion of a sinker that generates groundballs. Without that drop, Smyly can’t obtain the identical outcomes.

Interestingly sufficient, it’s an analogous story along with his curveball, which has considerably extra rise than most curves and matches comfortably into its personal little spot on the chart under:

A mixture of location and motion explains why Smyly wasn’t producing groundballs as a starter, regardless of such a groundball-friendly arsenal. So right here’s the million-dollar query: Can he actually keep the next groundball price as a reliever? It will surely be in his finest curiosity, what with Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Nick Madrigal manning the infield behind him. The pattern measurement is tiny to date, however I’m inclined to say that Smyly can stick with it.

On every particular person pitch he throws, his groundball price hasn’t really gotten a lot increased. Currently, Smyly is working a 33.3% price on his sinker and a 42.3% price on his curve; as a starter, these numbers have been 29.1% and 37%, respectively. But he’s been utilizing fewer sinkers general. Instead, he’s throwing extra curves and extra of his tertiary pitch, a cutter. The cutter performs an even bigger position in his repertoire towards lefties, and as a reliever, he has had the platoon benefit extra usually. Thus, he’s been throwing extra cutters and inducing extra groundballs in consequence. His cutter has the next groundball price than both of his different pitches, and actually, it’s his solely pitch with a groundball price increased than league common.

As lengthy as Smyly continues to lean on his curveball and face extra same-handed hitters out of the bullpen, subsequently shedding his sinker, I don’t see why he can’t keep a extra respectable groundball price. It’s not the everyday recommendation you’d give to a pitcher who desires to generate extra balls on the bottom, but it surely appears to be the strategy that works for him.

Stats and rankings as of September 14.