Layoffs Haven’t Hindered Playoff Teams Historically

On Saturday, three of the 4 house playoff groups misplaced the opener of their respective Division Series. The losses ranged from 3-2 dramas to 11-2 laughers. Sunday, the American League groups performed their second video games, and the house groups went 0-2. Now that we’ve seen six video games and the house groups are 1-5, it’s time to ask the plain query: Is this format irrevocably damaged?

Okay, superb, that’s probably not a good query. But there’s been plenty of hue and cry in regards to the playoff system just lately, headlined by an article by the estimable Ken Rosenthal that got here out this morning in The Athletic, and because the resident “I don’t see what all the fuss is about” man at FanGraphs, I don’t see what all of the fuss is about. What higher time to dive into the numbers and see if we will discover some fascinating details on both aspect of this debate.

The greatest gripe, so far as I can inform, is that the layoff between the tip of the common season and the beginning of the Division Series unfairly disadvantages groups that secured a bye. Their opponents get to play baseball, whereas they’re pressured to sit down on their butts. It’s a day by day sport, goes the argument; disrupting that rhythm results in an obstacle even when further relaxation appears like a carrot fairly than a stick.

The present postseason hasn’t been in use lengthy sufficient to say a lot of something about it – a 1-5 stretch for groups with a small edge within the playoffs is hardly noteworthy, and we will’t precisely lean on 100 years of postseason historical past to assist eradicate the noise. The present playoff format, with 12 groups and two first-round byes in every league, is simply two years outdated. We’re essentially going to be coping with small samples right here. But let’s begin by folding these along with this 12 months’s knowledge, as a result of it’ll bulk up our pattern dimension significantly.

Last 12 months’s conflict of bye groups in opposition to Wild Card-round winners was a lifeless warmth. The video games had been break up 8-8; the sequence had been break up 2-2. If you zoom in on the primary two video games of every sequence, the groups with the bye went 5-3. Zoom in even additional, to the primary recreation solely, and so they went 3-1.

You can go deeper than that. Dan Szymborski culled the historic database for each matchup in playoff historical past the place one group had a layoff of 4 or extra days whereas their opponent had a layoff of two or fewer days. That counts the final two years of the playoffs, but additionally video games from the two-Wild-Card period, the place the highest total seed confronted the winner of a winner-take-all recreation after a quick layoff, in addition to the occasional playoff recreation from earlier eras.

There have been 35 of those video games in baseball historical past. The group with extra relaxation has gone 24-11 in them. Dan additionally predicted the winner of every of those video games based mostly on the group’s seasonal report. From every group’s report, you’d count on the rested groups to go 19-16; they’ve been barely higher in combination, which is sensible given the pool we’re drawing from. Here’s a listing of all of these video games:

Some of which may come down to higher pitching matchups; the group with extra relaxation ought to be capable to set their rotation favorably. But that’s sort of the purpose of the additional day without work; positive, in previous years it may need been an accident of scheduling, however the league is now utilizing it to provide groups a bonus. Getting to deploy your greatest beginning pitcher whereas your opponent makes use of a mid-rotation arm is one manifestation of that.

There’s simply not a lot proof, whether or not short-term or long-term, {that a} layoff results in an obstacle. Even prior to now two years, house groups have gone 4-4 within the first recreation of the Division Series. That’s the interval that everybody is most anxious about, and it’s nonetheless been a lifeless warmth. It’s additionally merely not sufficient knowledge to say a lot of something; eight video games isn’t a lot of a pattern, notably when all of the groups concerned are playoff caliber.

Though I don’t see a lot proof {that a} layoff is hurting one of the best groups, I do sympathize with the impulse to provide larger seeds extra of a bonus. The expanded playoff subject has given extra fanbases a style of the postseason, however there’s additionally an implicit hazard: the extra groups you enable into the playoffs, the much less sense it makes to expend sources making an attempt to qualify. If every of the 12 playoff groups had the identical possibilities of profitable the World Series, the sport would undergo. No one would strive for 100 wins if profitable 88 gave you an identical odds, and even roughly equal odds, of profitable the massive prize on the finish of the 12 months.

Byes are an essential manner to supply differentiation between one of the best groups in baseball and the subsequent tier down. Winning 90 video games is much less interesting than it as soon as was. In the final two years, six seeds have gained 84, 86, 87, and 89 video games respectively; two groups made the NL playoffs after profitable 84 video games this 12 months, in reality. I believe it’s essential to counter that pull in direction of the center by giving the perfect groups a bonus.

Historical knowledge counsel that the additional layoff is a significant benefit, however there are all the time extra choices to incentivize groups to win. John Smoltz urged one thing I’m fairly keen on: eliminating relaxation and journey days to compress the time between the Wild Card sequence and the subsequent spherical. That would power non-bye groups to both use pitchers on quick relaxation or increase their rotation to incorporate lower-tier starters. It would notably blunt the benefit that groups just like the Phillies, Twins, and Diamondbacks, who’ve two elite starters, at the moment maintain.

The playoffs have all the time tilted the equation in direction of extra begins out of your greatest arms and fewer from the again of the rotation, however the padding has gotten larger within the new playoff format. Wild Card groups are alleged to be deprived by having to play extra video games in much less time, however after tonight’s video games, the Phillies and Diamondbacks can have every performed 4 video games within the final seven days. I don’t suppose there’s any proof that the additional layoff is hurting the groups that obtain byes, however the decrease seeds are hardly going through an not possible burden from taking part in further video games. They, too, have much more relaxation than they’re used to within the common season, and this impact is much more pronounced this 12 months, because of all 4 Wild Card sequence winners sweeping. If we’re making an attempt to create an obstacle for decrease seeds, this technique isn’t doing that.

Fixing this is perhaps untenable for the league, as a result of it’s arrange the best way it’s largely for TV causes. As Rosenthal identified, chopping out a journey day between the final Wild Card recreation and the primary recreation of the subsequent spherical would imply taking part in afternoon video games, one thing the league’s broadcast companions wouldn’t like. The NLDS additionally has a non-travel off day this 12 months, similar to the ALDS did final 12 months. That stands proud like a sore thumb – but it surely’s there in order that the league can begin all 4 Division Series on the identical day and nonetheless broadcast a number of video games on TV on daily basis. Today could be a journey day for all 4 sequence in any other case, and MLB appears to choose blanket protection to an equal taking part in subject between the 2 leagues.

Rosenthal urged reseeding the playoffs after the primary spherical, and I believe that’s a no brainer. It wouldn’t have an effect on very a lot in any respect, for my part, but it surely’s higher than the choice of not reseeding. Granting the highest seed in every league an extra marginal benefit for free of charge to the printed schedule, which appears to be the rationale the league has resisted different makes an attempt to provide that high seed an edge, is a superb thought.

While I don’t imagine that the present playoff system is giving high seeds an obstacle, I do suppose it’s essential to be vigilant about defending the sides that higher groups obtain. Competitive stability is rarely assured in a sport with income sharing and no wage flooring, and notably one the place the result of quick playoff sequence is all the time closely random. The higher group advances in 80% of seven-game NBA sequence; Michael Lopez, Greg Matthews, and Ben Baumer discovered that MLB would want a best-of-75 sequence to match that charge. If you need one of the best groups to play within the World Series yearly, baseball’s inherent randomness is a big headwind.

So good on everybody for obsessively looking for every other roadblocks and making an attempt to take away them. I believe the impulse to be sure that the present playoff format treats good groups pretty is commendable. I need the design to provide high groups an edge, by no means thoughts parity. A system that damage them could be unthinkable. I simply don’t suppose that layoffs and relaxation days are serving to blunt that edge.