As the Rangers Thrive, Marcus Semien Continues To Wrestle

Writing about playoff developments is dangerous enterprise. The complete postseason, up to now, contains 36 particular person video games. In the common season, the league hit the 36-game mark on April 2. If you regarded on the stolen base success price that early into the season — 88% by means of these first 36 video games — you’d have thought we had been in for an absolute free-for-all below the brand new guidelines. Writing about particular person gamers is much more harmful. The most that anybody has performed on this postseason is 13 video games; 13 video games into his season, Matt Chapman led the majors in WAR. Jorge López hadn’t given up an earned run. No one on the Rays knew what it felt prefer to lose a recreation. Mookie Betts had a 13-game stretch in mid-April the place he slashed .184/.298/.306. Shohei Ohtani had a .538 OPS over 13 video games in mid-May.

Nevertheless, we are able to’t not write concerning the postseason. It’s the postseason! The pattern dimension will at all times be small, however we should attempt to make sense of it anyway, to seek out which means within the small pattern weirdness. And on that word, it’s time to speak about Marcus Semien.

Through 58 postseason plate appearances, Semien has a 43 wRC+. Out of 36 gamers with a minimum of 30 PA within the playoffs, that ranks fifth-worst, forward of solely Martín Maldonado, Jeremy Peña, Evan Longoria, and Johan Rojas, hardly the form of firm that the two-time MVP finalist often retains. Along with Longoria and Rojas, Semien is the one certified hitter with a wRC+ under 100 in all three collection to date; his greatest efficiency got here within the ALDS, through which he slashed .214/.267/.286 with a .247 wOBA and a 50 wRC+. After ending fourth within the AL in extra-base hits through the common season, he has simply two within the playoffs. He has but to hit a house run. His .038 remoted energy would make even Myles Straw shake his head. On high of that, he hasn’t stolen a base both, though that most likely has one thing to do together with his .276 OBP.

Every hitter goes by means of chilly streaks, and Semien isn’t any exception. Indeed, the veteran has a little bit of a repute for inconsistency; he has bounced forwards and backwards between “MVP candidate” and “league-average hitter” every season since 2019. Even this 12 months, when he was one of the crucial dependable gamers within the recreation all through the common season, he had some stretches like this:

Semien’s postseason wOBA is .237. Every level under the dotted pink line represents one other 12-game stretch over the previous three seasons when he was equally unproductive. It’s not frequent, but it surely occurs, and there’s definitely no must sound the alarms. After busting out of his newest chilly stretch round recreation no. 400 on the graph, he hit for a .371 wOBA over the remainder of the season.

What’s extra, Semien is displaying a number of basic indicators of arduous luck this October. His .217 BABIP is 70 factors under his profession common, regardless that his line drive price is approach up at 26.1%. His pull price is low, but it surely’s solely down on groundballs, so if something, you might need thought his BABIP could be greater than ordinary. On high of that, he has walked as many instances as he has struck out, and his 10.3% strikeout price is the second lowest within the postseason (min. 20 PA).

The Statcast anticipated metrics additionally provide cause for optimism, although you must dig a bit deeper to seek out it. Semien’s xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA are all considerably greater than his precise stats, however they’re nonetheless not notably inspiring:

But there’s some extra small pattern dimension weirdness occurring right here. Stats like batting common, slugging proportion, and even wOBA work with a restricted variety of inputs. Regular previous batting common is a binary system; each enter is both “hit” or “not a hit.” Meanwhile, slugging proportion and wOBA solely differentiate between forms of hit, not high quality of hit. In different phrases, a base hit off the scoreboard and a dribbling infield single are equally useful. In the identical vein, an out is at all times simply an out, whether or not it’s a scorching liner or a can of corn.

Expected stats are an entire different animal. The distinction between a base hit off the scoreboard and an infield dribbler might be huge; so can the distinction between a hard-hit line out or a lazy pop fly. Thus, a number of pop outs or weak grounders can tank a batter’s anticipated stats in a small pattern dimension, and a few no-doubter residence runs could make them shoot again up. In Semien’s case, it’s the previous. He has put a number of too many non-competitive balls in play, and that awful contact is overshadowing all of the high-quality contact he has made.

Of the 46 balls Semien has put into play, 13 have had an xBA under .020 – simply over 28%. Similarly, 20% of his batted balls have had an xBA under .010. In the common season, these percentages had been simply 15% and 11%, respectively. There’s no defending that form of contact; there’s no such factor as “bad luck” on balls in play when the balls in play are hit so poorly. But on the finish of the day, one out is only one out. A popup isn’t any worse than a routine groundout, regardless that the popup goes to have a harsher impact on a hitter’s anticipated stats. More to the purpose, being hitter is extra concerning the high-quality contact a batter could make, quite than the low-quality contact he doesn’t make.

And Semien remains to be making high-quality contact at an identical price. His line drive price is up. He’s pulling balls within the air as a lot as ever. On all balls in play with an xBA above .020, he has the next xBA and an identical xwOBA as he did all year long. About 26% of his batted balls have had an xBA over .500, in comparison with 24% within the common season, and 9% have had an xBA over .800, in comparison with 10% within the common season. He’s nonetheless making good contact, but it surely’s more durable to see that, as a result of his poor contact has been worse than ordinary.

Semien must be simply effective, but it surely’s value wanting into all that low-quality contact a bit additional. The greatest drawback has been the mix of popups and weak fly outs; up to now, practically one-third of his fly balls haven’t gotten out of the infield. Here’s a compilation of all his batted balls with an xBA under .020, break up into two movies as a result of MLB Film Room caps any supercuts at 10 clips:

As you might need picked up, most of these pitches had been fastballs, and practically all had been within the strike zone. They various when it comes to pace and precise location, however ten of 13 had been four-seamers, and all however one landed within the zone. Eight had been even within the coronary heart of the strike zone, as outlined by Baseball Savant.

Four-seam fastballs aren’t a brand new drawback for Semien. Over the previous two years, the one providing he has a worse wOBAcon towards within the strike zone is the sweeper, and the pattern dimension is way smaller for that pitch:

Two of the three groups Semien has confronted within the postseason took a four-seamer–heavy method. The Rays threw him four-seam fastballs on 18 of 32 pitches, and the Astros tossed him a four-seamer 43.4% of the time. Interestingly, Houston lived exterior the zone towards him, giving him little or no to work with, however that could be why he swung so aggressively when he did get a fastball within the zone. The Orioles, for his or her half, leaned on the slider, throwing him one of many two breaking balls for 21 of 56 pitches. He did effectively to put off sliders and sweepers, swinging solely seven instances (33.3%) and chasing solely thrice (21.4%). Perhaps after so many breaking balls, he was a bit too aggressive when he noticed a fastball down the center.

Opposing groups have performed effectively in executing their varied plans towards Semien up to now within the playoffs. At the identical time, he’s nonetheless drawing his walks, making frequent contact, and hitting the ball with authority as usually as ever. He has created his personal dangerous luck with so many popups, however he’s additionally been the sufferer of some good defensive performs and a few well-positioned fielders.

Semien was arguably probably the most useful participant on the Rangers all through the common season, taking part in all 162 video games and main the workforce in WAR. Through 12 video games within the playoffs, he has been the least useful participant on the roster. But postseason narratives can change within the blink of a watch. Look no additional than Nick Castellanos, who had the best OPS amongst certified hitters within the NLDS and the bottom OPS amongst certified hitters within the NLCS. Perhaps the Diamondbacks have a grasp plan of their of personal to carry Semien at bay, but it surely’s simply as doable he’ll flip a number of of these popups into residence runs, turning round his postseason narrative on the similar time.