Philly baseball followers didn’t even have to attend till the turkeys have been within the oven for the primary main Phillies information of the offseason, as Bob Nightengale and Jeff Passan reported Sunday that the staff has introduced again Aaron Nola on a seven yr, $172 million contract that can hold their no. 2 starter on the town till the top of the 2030 season.
The Phillies have loved vital postseason success lately, with a visit to the World Series in 2022 and an NLCS run that nearly resulted in a return to the Fall Classic this yr. That being mentioned, attending to the playoffs by way of a Wild Card spot is all the time going to be a extra unsure path than profitable the division, and in every of the final two seasons, the Phils completed nicely behind the division chief. For a staff with an getting old core that’s in win-now mode, the aim is to do higher, and it might be exhausting — and costly — to enhance the staff from 2023 with out preserving Nola within the fold. Nola, the staff’s first-round decide again in 2014, gained’t come cheaply at $172 million. From a pure worth standpoint, ZiPS isn’t overly enthusiastic about that determine:
ZiPS Projection – Aaron Nola
| Year | W | L | ERA | FIP | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 | 8 | 3.84 | 3.37 | 30 | 30 | 180.3 | 164 | 77 | 22 | 36 | 195 | 113 | 3.4 |
| 2025 | 10 | 9 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 28 | 28 | 168.7 | 157 | 75 | 21 | 34 | 178 | 109 | 3.0 |
| 2026 | 9 | 9 | 4.22 | 3.70 | 26 | 26 | 158.0 | 152 | 74 | 21 | 33 | 161 | 103 | 2.4 |
| 2027 | 8 | 9 | 4.44 | 3.91 | 26 | 26 | 148.0 | 149 | 73 | 21 | 32 | 146 | 98 | 2.0 |
| 2028 | 8 | 8 | 4.75 | 4.16 | 24 | 24 | 142.0 | 148 | 75 | 22 | 32 | 135 | 92 | 1.5 |
| 2029 | 6 | 9 | 5.07 | 4.47 | 21 | 21 | 124.3 | 137 | 70 | 21 | 31 | 114 | 86 | 0.9 |
| 2030 | 5 | 8 | 5.37 | 4.68 | 18 | 18 | 107.3 | 122 | 64 | 19 | 28 | 96 | 81 | 0.5 |
But if any staff is justified in paying greater than the projection suggests for Nola, it’s the Phillies, provided that they’re a rich staff smack dab within the win vary the place extra wins are probably the most beneficial.
This projection is an enormous step down from Nola’s forecast earlier than final season, when ZiPS would have urged a seven-year, $158 million extension, considerably nearer to his precise contract determine. Problem is, Nola did have a relative down season, nicely off his 2020-22 averages, and that makes him riskier when contemplating an enormous deal. While Nola will in all probability permit fewer dwelling runs in 2024, batters did hit him extra efficiently than in 2022. With his exit velocity and hard-hit numbers going up a bit, it isn’t all easy dwelling run volatility at play. Losing 20-25% of your strikeout price is a worrying signal for an older pitcher as nicely. That being mentioned, it’s a nonetheless an affordable begin to the offseason for the Phillies, who hopefully gained’t be content material to only hold the present staff intact.
My colleague Ben Clemens will probably be again tomorrow with extra on the Nola signing.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com