JAWS and the 2024 Hall of Fame Poll: Joe Mauer

The following article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing take a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the sequence, use the instrument above; an introduction to JAWS could be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule and an opportunity to fill out a Hall of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing challenge, see right here. All WAR figures discuss with the Baseball-Reference model until in any other case indicated.

Joe Mauer was certainly one of baseball’s biggest hometown-boy-makes-good tales. A former No. 1 general pick of Cretin-Derham Hall High School in St. Paul, Minnesota, in 2001, he spent the whole lot of his 15-year profession with the Twins. Despite a listed peak of 6-foot-5, he excelled at catching and was additionally an elite left-handed hitter, with a fast, compact stroke and impeccable judgment of the strike zone. Between his excellent two-way performances, his good-looking attractiveness, and his healthful public persona, he was a really perfect face-of-the-franchise participant. He performed a central position in serving to the Twins, who have been focused for contraction simply 5 months after he was drafted, to 4 postseason appearances. Along the best way he made six All-Star groups and gained three Gold Gloves and three batting titles apiece, to not point out the 2009 AL MVP award.

Alas, the Twins have been swept in every of their playoff sequence, and for all of Mauer’s accomplishments, his profession was punctuated by accidents, beginning with a meniscus tear within the second recreation of his rookie season. Post-concussion issues compelled him to hold up the instruments of ignorance and shift to first base; his energy, which had solely intermittently proven up even in the very best of occasions, with one season of greater than 13 homers, dissipated upon transferring to the group’s stunning new ballpark; and a few phase of the fan base blamed his eight-year, $184 million contract extension for the group’s obvious monetary limitations. Ultimately, he selected to retire at age 35 attributable to continued concussion-related problems.

All of that’s proof that Mauer’s story wasn’t a fairy story, besides, it was an ideal profession. So nice, in reality, that Mauer ranks seventh in JAWS amongst catchers regardless of its limitations, and that’s with out accounting for his above-average pitch framing, an element that may turn into more and more essential to grapple with in upcoming Hall of Fame debates. Even and not using a bonus for his upstanding character (the unique intent of the notorious clause within the voting guidelines), he’s eminently worthy of a spot within the Hall of Fame. Whether he’ll get there on the primary attempt is one other query, nevertheless, notably amid a crowded discipline and an voters that has not solely turn into a lot much less beneficiant currently but in addition has not often handled even the obvious honorees amongst catchers with applicable respect.

Joseph Patrick Mauer was born right into a baseball-saturated household on April 19, 1983 in St. Paul. His grandfather, Donald C. “Jake” Mauer Sr. (born 1931) had a quick skilled profession within the White Sox group; his three older brothers performed professionally as properly, with John Mauer (b. 1922) enjoying for unbiased groups earlier than and after World War II and Ken Mauer (b. 1927) enjoying within the Dodgers’ chain (which had a St. Paul affiliate) from 1944 to ’48. Baseball Reference incorporates no information for both Hank Mauer (b. 1926) or Jake Sr., although an April 12, 1954 newspaper clipping within the Waterloo (Iowa) Courier notes of the latter’s launch by the White Sox-affiliated Waterloo White Hawks of the Illinois-Indiana-Iowa League: “Released were… second baseman Jake Mauer. Mauer was not officially on the White Hawk roster but was under contract to the Colorado Springs club.”

Jake Sr.’s 2020 obituary says his baseball profession was lower brief by polio. A 2006 Sports Illustrated profile of Joe by Kelli Anderson makes reference to Jake Sr. and his three brothers and tells a unique story, one which supplied a cautionary story:

Jake had his shot within the early Fifties. A lefthanded hitter with energy who performed shortstop and third base, he was presupposed to be higher than his three older brothers, all of whom performed within the excessive minor leagues. But his time with the White Sox’ Class A affiliate in Colorado Springs was temporary. His efficiency was hobbled by a very enthusiastic social life, and his profession ended with a knee harm after 4 months. “I thought I could play ball and drink and party and chase women, but it catches up to you,” says Jake. “I’ve harped on that with Joe: Don’t make the same mistakes I made. Focus on playing the game. Focus on being the best player you can be.”

When he grew to become a widower at age 48, Jake Sr. moved in with Jake Mauer Jr., a trophy engraver who spent his weekends teaching his sons, and his spouse Teresa. Grandpa Jake supplied day care and “preached the virtues of hitting,” wrote Anderson:

“If you can hit,” he’d say, “they’ll always find a place for you.” He tried to get the older boys to emulate his model and hit lefthanded, however they wouldn’t chew. “Then one day Joe [then a toddler] picked up a plastic bat lefthanded and whacked a little beach ball,” says Grandpa Jake. “I said, ‘Ho-leee! We have a lefthander!’ His brothers tried to get him to hit righthanded, but I told them to leave him alone.”

Those brothers would each have skilled careers throughout the Twins’ group. Infielder Jake Mauer III (b. 1978) was drafted out of the University of St. Thomas within the twenty third spherical in 2001 and performed down on the farm for 5 seasons earlier than elbow issues compelled his retirement. He then spent 2008–17 managing of their minor league system, overseeing future Twins corresponding to Luis Arraez, José Berríos, and Byron Buxton. His final group, the Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts, featured Nick Gordon and LaMonte Wade Jr. and completed first within the Southern League’s North Division; they have been declared co-champions after a hurricane compelled the cancellation of the finals. Pitcher Bill Mauer (b. 1980), a non-drafted free agent, pitched within the Twins’ group from 2003 to ’05.

When Joe was 9, Jake Jr. invented and later marketed a tool to help hitting referred to as Mauer’s Quickswing, which makes use of a tilted PVC pipe, “a unique delayed gravity-drop design to help batters develop greater bat speed, hand-eye coordination, reflexes, and muscle memory.” Young Joe and his brothers spent hours within the household basement honing their craft with the Quickswing. At Cretin-Derham High, Joe was a three-sport star, incomes two All-State honors as a guard in basketball, and USA Today‘s national player of the year honors in both football (as a quarterback, in 2000) and baseball (2001); he’s the one athlete ever to win each. He was additionally Baseball America’s High School Player of the Year, the primary of quite a few high rankings bestowed upon him by the publication.

Following within the footsteps of Cretin-Derham’s Chris Weinke, the 2000 Heisman Trophy winner (and beforehand a minor leaguer within the Blue Jays chain), Mauer signed a letter of intent to play soccer at Florida State. With Mark Prior regarded as costlier to signal, the Twins selected the native boy with the primary choose of the 2001 draft regardless of the soccer danger and signed him for a bonus of $5.15 million; Prior, chosen second by the Cubs, obtained a $10.5 million bundle, together with a $4 million bonus and a five-year main league deal.

Mauer started his skilled profession with a flourish, hitting .400/.492/.491 in 130 plate appearances for the Twins’ Rookie-league Elizabethton affiliate; he didn’t homer however vaulted to no. 7 on BA’s Top 100 Prospects checklist the next spring. He spent 2002 at A-level Quad Cities and cut up ’03 between High-A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain, hitting a mixed .338/.398/.434. On the power of his 80-grade arm and the idea that his recreation energy would finally present itself (“Twins scouts insist he has the power to one day hit 35–40 in a season if he wants to,” to cite BA), he entered 2004 as the sport’s no. 1 prospect. He additionally had a transparent path to the beginning job due to the commerce of starter A.J. Pierzynski to the Giants, a heist that fetched Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser. The 20-year-old Mauer made the Twins out of spring coaching and went 2-for-3 with a pair of walks in opposition to Cleveland on Opening Day; his first base on balls got here in opposition to CC Sabathia, and his first hit was a single off Rafael Betancourt.

Alas, the following evening Mauer tore the medial meniscus in his left knee whereas sliding in an try to catch a foul ball, although the Twins solely grew to become conscious of the harm after he singled and stopped abruptly whereas being waved house. He underwent surgical procedure and missed almost two months, returning on June 2. Dr. Joel Boyd, who carried out the surgical procedure, “told the Twins’ doctors that it’s inevitable Mauer will have problems as he adjusts to the constant strain that catching puts on knees,” in response to a report by ESPN’s Phil Rogers. Mauer went hitless in his first three video games again earlier than connecting for a tiebreaking three-run homer off the Tigers’ Esteban Yan. “I don’t know what it is about superstars, but they do those things,” supervisor Ron Gardenhire mentioned… after Mauer’s sixth main league recreation. No strain, child.

Mauer was hitting .308/.369/.570 with six homers in 122 PA when he was sidelined once more in mid-July attributable to continued soreness in his left knee and didn’t play once more that season. The Twins, who completed first within the AL Central, hoped to activate him to function their designated hitter had they gotten previous the Yankees within the Division Series, however they misplaced in 4 video games.

Concerns about Mauer’s knee lingered into the spring, however except for minor aches and pains, he remained wholesome, enjoying in 131 video games, catching in 116 of these, and hitting .294/.372/.411 (107 OPS+) with 9 homers and a couple of.8 WAR. It was a stable marketing campaign, however the Twins went 83–79, slipping to 3rd within the AL Central. Though he’d been BA’s no. 1 prospect once more, he wasn’t really eligible for Rookie of the Year voting as a result of he’d exceeded the utmost for days on a roster earlier than September (45).

Mauer broke out in 2006, hitting .347/.429/.507 with 13 homers. He made his first All-Star group and joined Deacon White (.367 in 1875), Bubbles Hargrave (.353 in 1926), and Ernie Lombardi (.342 in 1938 and .330 in 1942) as the one catchers to win batting titles to that time; Buster Posey (.336 in 2012) is the one one to take action since. Mauer’s 144 OPS+ ranked seventh within the league, his 5.8 WAR fifth, and he positioned sixth within the AL MVP voting. Aided by a Cy Young-winning marketing campaign by Johan Santana and an MVP-winning one from Justin Morneau (who had simply 4.3 WAR however 34 homers and 130 RBIs), the Twins gained 96 video games and the AL Central, however they have been swept by the A’s within the Division Series, with Mauer going simply 2-for-11 with out an extra-base hit.

Mauer signed a four-year, $33 million extension in February 2007, shopping for out not solely his arbitration years but in addition his first of free agent eligibility. A quad pressure restricted him to 109 video games and a 118 OPS+ that season, although he nonetheless produced 3.9 WAR. He rebounded to hit .328/.413/.451 with 9 house runs in 2008, profitable his second batting title to hitch Lombardi as the one different catcher with a number of titles. Meanwhile, his 5.6 WAR ranked seventh within the league, his 134 OPS+ eighth. He made his second All-Star group, gained his first Gold Glove, and completed fourth within the AL MVP voting; once more, Morneau positioned above him regardless of a decrease WAR however higher counting stats.

It tuns out, Mauer had been enjoying although ache brought on by a blockage in certainly one of his kidneys. He underwent surgical procedure to appropriate the issue on December 22, 2008, which restricted his offseason conditioning; he couldn’t run or elevate weights. As camp opened, he handled irritation of his proper sacroilac joint, which stored him out of main league motion till May 1, 2009. He homered off the Royals’ Sidney Ponson on his first swing of the season, although, then simply stored hitting. Through June 16, he was batting a scorching .429/.497/.756 with 13 homers in 42 video games, matching the profession excessive he’d set in 2006. At a degree when he was nonetheless chasing .400, Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci checked in:

The secret to Mauer’s success is his serenity, his minimalist motion and emotion. He is the Ben Hogan of hitters, bringing the candy spot to the hitting space with no extraneous motion. “I think the biggest thing about my swing is I don’t have a lot of stuff going on,” he says. “Guys have different triggers for timing, and my timing is very simple.”

…Mauer is so calm he appears to vary the physics of the sport. Because his swing is so compact, he can wait longer to decide to pitches, which has the impact of stretching the 60 ft, six inches between the pitching rubber and residential plate. “He sees the ball longer than any hitter in baseball,” [bullpen coach Rick] Stelmaszek says.

Mauer couldn’t keep the .400 common and barely missed surpassing Babe Phelps‘ .367 from 1936, the high-water mark for a modern AL/NL catcher, hitting .365/.444/.587. He won not only his third batting title but also the “Slash Stat” Triple Crown — the only catcher who’s ever performed so. Additionally, he led the AL with a 171 OPS+ and positioned second behind Ben Zobrist with 7.8 WAR. After hitting a modest 29 homers over the earlier three seasons, he clubbed a career-high 28 in 138 video games and 606 PA; although he missed the season’s first 22 video games, he performed in all however three of Minnesota’s final 141. The Twins gained a Game 163 tiebreaker in opposition to the Tigers to assert the division title, however regardless of Mauer’s 5-for-12 displaying, they have been swept by the Yankees within the Division Series. In the AL MVP voting, Mauer obtained 27 out of 28 first-place votes.

The 2009 season was the Twins’ last one within the much-derided Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. Anticipating the income enhance that will include the transfer to outside Target Field, and fearful of shedding their hometown star after buying and selling Santana to the Mets and watching Torii Hunter signal with the Angels, they inked Mauer, who was heading into the ultimate season of his four-year deal, to an eight-year, $184 million extension. It was the fourth-largest contract to that time after Alex Rodriguez‘s 10-year deals of $252 million and $275 million and Derek Jeter’s 10-year, $189 million deal. The Twins, who opened the 2009 season with the majors’ seventh-lowest payroll at $65.3 million, in response to Cot’s Contracts, jumped to tenth at $97.7 million in ’10, when Mauer was making $12.5 million; they’d climb to ninth at $113.2 million the following yr, when the catcher started receiving his annual $23 million salaries.

Where the Twins and their opponents ranked ninth within the majors with 189 homers on the Metrodome in 2009, they hit simply 116, the majors’ fourth-lowest whole at Target Field in ’10. Mauer’s whole sank to 9 as he battled proper shoulder woes and protracted left knee ache, however he nonetheless hit .327/.402/.469, good for a 140 OPS+ and 5.9 WAR (each tenth within the league), to not point out his third straight season because the beginning catcher on the AL All-Star group. The Twins improved to 94 wins and claimed their sixth AL Central title in 9 years however have been once more swept by the Yankees, this time with Mauer going 3-for-12. A blown name within the Eleventh inning of a 3–3 tie in Game 2 by left discipline umpire Phil Cuzzi on a Mauer drive loomed giant:

After the season, Mauer underwent surgical procedure on his left knee to alleviate discomfort brought on by the plica band, a fold of tissue that strains the knee and that generally will get irritated by overuse. Shortly after camp opened, Gardenhire revealed that the catcher had obtained an injection of joint lubricant into the knee. Mauer was “miffed the shots are public,” in response to certainly one of many studies that expressed his disgruntlement. He issued a clarification, saying, “It’s more of a preventative thing just to make sure I’m good to go for the season. It’s really not that big of a deal and I kind of wish it wasn’t out there, but here we are.”

Though he inaugurated his new contract whereas making the Opening Day lineup, Mauer performed simply 9 video games earlier than touchdown on the disabled checklist with what the Twins termed “bilateral leg weakness” — a imprecise phrase describing a mysterious constellation of signs, and one which did the catcher no favors in a state with a hockey-toughness mentality. “Perhaps it’s time to ask Joe for some of those millions back,” wrote the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Jim Souhan in an unsightly hit piece, calling Mauer “the softest of stars” for lacking over two months. Fans started to boo him. It didn’t assist that Morneau was sidelined by a ruptured disc in his neck as properly, that after lacking half of the 2010 season attributable to a career-altering concussion.

Mauer performed simply 82 video games, hitting a skinny .287/.360/.368 with three homers earlier than an higher respiratory an infection changed into pneumonia and ended his wretched season — one through which the Twins misplaced 99 video games — in mid-September. Fortunately, he got here again sturdy, batting .319/.416/.446 (140 OPS+) with 10 homers in 2012, main the AL in OBP for a second time (all different catchers within the AL, NL and bygone Nineteenth-century leagues have performed so simply twice) and producing 4.4 WAR in a career-high 147 video games. Just 74 of these have been behind the plate, with 42 at DH and 30 at first base.

Mauer was within the midst of one other excellent season in 2013, hitting .324/.404/.476 (142 OPS+) with 5.5 WAR, when a foul ball off the bat of the Mets’ Ike Davis hit his masks on August 19. He suffered a concussion, was positioned on the seven-day concussion disabled checklist, and didn’t play once more that season. When he had tried to return, complications, bouts of dizziness, sensitivity to mild, and different post-concussion signs prevented him from doing so. After the season, Mauer consulted with physicians on the Mayo Clinic in addition to group docs. He and the Twins concluded it could be greatest for him to cease catching and transfer to first base — a place opened up by Morneau’s free company — on a everlasting foundation.

“When I kept gathering information, to be honest with you, it wasn’t really even a decision,” he instructed reporters. “I kept searching to see if it was going to be OK, if it was going to be safe for me to go back there and catch, and I just wasn’t finding that… All it could take is one foul tip in pitcher’s batting practice, and I’m out for two or three months or even more.”

Heading into his age-31 season, Mauer nonetheless had 5 years remaining on his eight-year deal, and it was obvious given his modest energy that he would have hassle offering the extent of offense anticipated from a primary baseman. He finally grew to become sturdy sufficient defensively to supply vital worth, however from 2014 to ’16, he hit a mixed .267/.353/.380 (103 OPS+), averaging simply eight homers and 1.8 WAR.

Mauer did have yet one more distinctive season, nevertheless. In 2017, he hit .305/.384/.417 with seven homers and a 115 OPS+. Boosted by his 13 Defensive Runs Saved (third amongst all first basemen), he completed with 3.9 WAR. His efficiency helped the Twins to a Wild Card berth, however as soon as once more they bumped into the Yankees; Mauer went 1-for-5 within the loss.

On April 12, 2018, Mauer singled off the White Sox’s Aaron Bummer. It was his second hit of the evening and the two,000th of his profession, a milestone I famous right here at FanGraphs due to its significance in Hall of Fame deliberations (a subject I’ll take up later on this cycle with the case of Chase Utley).

On May 11 in opposition to the Angels, he was shaken up diving for a foul ball. He performed one other six video games earlier than being eliminated within the fifth inning of a May 18 contest attributable to whiplash-like signs, at which level supervisor Paul Molitor revealed that Mauer had additionally been coping with stability points and sensitivity to mild. “We ran through the protocol last night,” Molitor mentioned, “and there was no definitive answer there as far as what exactly is ongoing, but given his history … it looks to me like it’s gonna be at least a few days.”

The Twins positioned Mauer on the injured checklist with a cervical pressure and concussion-like signs. “(On) the drive home, the symptoms started to really kind of pour on,” Mauer later mentioned. “That’s why you didn’t see me for a couple days.” He lower brief an on-field exercise at Target Field on May 30 because of the return of signs; he had hoped to sit down within the dugout to check his tolerance for the noise ranges of a recreation. “Hitting, I felt pretty good, but taking groundballs and moving around is kind of when I started to feel some of that stuff, so we kind of backed off… I’m not there yet.”

Mauer missed 25 video games and misplaced 53 factors of on-base share between the purpose of his newest harm and the top of the season, ending at .282/.351/.379 (100 OPS+) with 1.4 WAR. With two five-year-olds at house and spouse Maddie pregnant with the couple’s third baby, he reassessed his priorities however performed his playing cards near the vest. While he hadn’t formally made up his thoughts concerning retirement, the Twins hatched a plan for him to make a one-pitch cameo behind the plate within the ninth inning of the season’s last recreation, together with his household in attendance. Here’s the spotlight reel, together with his last hit, a seventh-inning hustle double. After one intentionally-outside pitch from Matt Belisle to Yoán Moncada, Mauer visited the mound and obtained a hug from the pitcher and a prolonged ovation because the theme from The Natural performed over the Target Field public handle system. The catching cameo begins at 1:56; you may wish to watch out for the oncoming mud storm as referred to as by White Sox play-by-play announcer Jason Benetti:

Said Benetti in an element that’s not inside that clip however that also provides me goosebumps: “None of us gets to choose how we’re remembered on this planet. But in the game of baseball, every once in a while, a player so special to a town gets to choose how he walks off the field for a final time. If this is it for Joe Mauer, a fitting, touching and warm send-off on a chilly day in the Twin Cities.”

Mauer waited till November 9 to announce his retirement, writing a letter to followers that cited his concussion points:

“The decision came down to my health and my family. The risk of concussion is always there, and I was reminded of that this season after missing over 30 games as a result of diving for a foul ball… I am soon to be a father of three and I find myself thinking about my future health and its impact on my family more than I had years ago… If I were to continue playing this game I would want to do so without reservation and I no longer feel that is possible.”

Three years later, with concussions and younger youngsters at house, Posey made the same exit.

…

To put it bluntly: BBWAA voters have performed a horseshit job of electing catchers for the Hall of Fame in well timed style. To date, simply two have been elected on the primary poll: Johnny Bench in 1989 (53 years after the primary election!) and Ivan Rodriguez in 2017. Both have been eminently worthy, rating first and third in WAR and JAWS amongst backstops. Gary Carter, an 11-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner who ranks second, wanted six years to realize entry in 2003. Carlton Fisk, who battled accidents early in his profession however recovered to set all types of longevity information, made 11 All-Star groups and ranks fourth in JAWS; he wanted two years. Fifth-ranked Mike Piazza, a 12-time All-Star who stands because the best-hitting catcher in AL/NL historical past, wanted 4 years, although PED allegations performed a job in that delay. Sixth-ranked Yogi Berra, a three-time MVP and 10-time champion as a participant, wanted two years. Eighth-ranked Bill Dickey, an 11-time All-Star and eight-time champion, obtained votes in 9 elections (not counting runoffs), although to be honest, that tally started earlier than the five-year ready interval was established; he was elected in what would have been his third yr of eligibility by trendy guidelines. Ninth-ranked Mickey Cochrane, a two-time MVP whose profession resulted in 1937, the yr after the primary Hall election, wasn’t elected till a decade later. Tenth-ranked Gabby Hartnett, whose profession resulted in 1941, wasn’t elected till ’55, and Eleventh-ranked Ted Simmons went one-and-done in his solely BBWAA look in 1994; he wasn’t elected till the 2020 Modern Baseball Era Committee poll.

In all, simply 16 non-Negro Leagues catchers are enshrined, counting Roy Campanella, whose 10 years with the Dodgers made him BBWAA-eligible lengthy earlier than his Negro League stats have been thought of a part of his main league totals. That whole of 16 is tied with third basemen for the fewest at any place moreover relievers and DHs. When it comest to evaluating the place that could be an important on the diamond and is definitely probably the most bodily demanding, voters have dropped the ball repeatedly. Constraints on enjoying time and susceptibility to harm are inclined to suppress catchers’ offensive totals, which places them at vital disadvantages after they’re in comparison with different place gamers. The comparatively latest introduction of pitch-framing metrics helps to shut among the gaps in the case of worth, but it surely additionally limits the scope of historic comparisons. It’s in opposition to that backdrop that I’ve been awaiting — anticipating and generally dreading — the response to Mauer’s candidacy since his last seasons as a primary baseman. Particularly given his place change, we haven’t had a BBWAA candidate fairly like this in my 23 years of Hall protection relationship again to my pre-JAWS days.

We’ll begin with the elephant within the room: Mauer caught solely 921 video games, a complete that ranks 154th all-time. Of the 16 catchers within the JAWS pool, 13 caught 1,451 video games or extra, the exceptions being Campanella (1,364 together with Negro Leagues video games however not the uncounted variety of non-league video games he should have performed early in his profession) and Nineteenth-century backstops Roger Bresnahan (974 out of a complete of 1,446) and King Kelly (584 out of 1,456, however with extra worth there than within the 750 video games he performed within the outfield, which his why he’s counted as a catcher).

Even on the outset of his profession, Mauer’s peak — formally listed at 6-foot-5 however generally known as 6-foot-4 — made him an anomaly, and it was broadly presumed he’d be unable to spend his whole profession behind the plate. That proved to be true, albeit not for the explanations anticipated. Via Stathead, because the begin of the twentieth century, simply 12 gamers listed at 6-foot-5 or 6-foot-6, together with Mauer, have caught even 10 video games in an AL/NL season, with solely eight reaching 100 in a season, and solely three — Mauer, Sandy Alomar Jr., and Matt Wieters — doing so greater than twice. Only that trio and Larry MacLean (1901–15) caught greater than 501 video games of their careers.

It’s not onerous to know why. With further peak typically comes further weight, which interprets to further stress on joints already overtaxed by a lot squatting and contorting. Usually if a tall beginner catcher is a proficient sufficient hitter, he will get moved to a much less bodily demanding place earlier than he reaches the majors; Jayson Werth is a primary instance. Mauer might need had an extended profession had he adopted that path, however wouldn’t it have been a greater one? We can’t know.

Regardless of peak, it’s due to the affect of catching — figuratively and actually, as we all know the hazards of collisions and concussions — that I imagine we must always nonetheless be evaluating Mauer to different gamers who spent the substantial parts of their careers behind the plates. There’s a motive none have reached the milestones corresponding to 3,000 hits and 500 house runs that every one however assure induction; Piazza’s 427 is tops within the latter class, and 31 of these got here enjoying positions moreover catcher.

Anyway, among the many 68 gamers who performed not less than 50% of their non–pinch-hitting video games behind the plate and accrued not less than 5,000 PA within the AL, NL and Nineteenth-century leagues, Mauer ranks Eleventh with a 124 OPS+. Raise the bar to six,000 PA, and he’s eighth of 36; elevate it to 7,000, and he’s sixth of 20. Let that sink in: solely 20 gamers who’ve spent a majority of their careers behind the plate in these leagues have even reached 7,000 PA, the cutoff I typically use once I’m reporting rate-stat rankings for position-playing candidates corresponding to David Ortiz, Gary Sheffield, Larry Walker, et al. Ten of the 20 are within the Hall, together with 9 of the highest 11 in OPS+, with Mauer and Jorge Posada (121 OPS+) the exceptions.

Letting go of the PA cutoffs however nonetheless sustaining the proportion one, Mauer ranks sixth when it comes to batting runs (Rbat), the offensive part of bWAR; his 239 trails solely Piazza (418), Cochrane (273), Bench (269), Gene Tenace (259 due to a .388 OBP in simply 5,527 PA) and Dickey (244). For each that class and OPS+, Mauer might need regressed had he spent longer behind the plate or within the majors in any respect. Still, we’re speaking about rankings on lists which can be far fewer in quantity than the variety of catchers within the Hall.

Throw in Mauer’s barely above-average baserunning (price eight runs), double play avoidance (-5 runs) and fielding by way of Defensive Runs Saved at each catcher and first base (19 runs), and his profession whole of 55.2 WAR ranks ninth, each amongst gamers with not less than 50% of their non–pinch-hitting video games performed at catcher (which Stathead makes use of) and those that accrued the plurality of their worth as catchers (which JAWS makes use of). The different 10 within the high 11 of both class are all enshrined. Mauer’s whole is 1.6 WAR above the place commonplace.

As for seven-year peak, Mauer’s 39.0 WAR ranks fifth behind solely Carter (48.4), Bench (47.2), Piazza (43.1), and Rodriguez (39.8), 4.3 WAR above the usual. All seven of his peak seasons are from his catching days (his 3.9 WAR in 2007 is tied with that of his standout season at first, ’17), which is to say that he’s not gaining any traction from his late-career transfer. Indeed, it’s due to the positional changes and his decline as a hitter that his WARs at first base weren’t greater. In phrases of JAWS, his 47.1 ranks seventh, between Berra (48.7) and Dickey (45.9), and it’s 2.9 factors above the usual.

Above the profession commonplace, above the height commonplace, above the JAWS commonplace: That’s a simple Hall of Famer proper there, or it ought to be one in the event you’re in any respect aware of the system, notably as we’re speaking a couple of participant with no recognized connections to PEDs. Do you understand how many place gamers clear all three requirements, don’t have any PED hyperlinks, and are outdoors the Hall however eligible as of this poll? It’s a brief checklist: Mauer, the first-time eligible Adrían Beltré, and long-lost Bobby Grich, who fell in need of 2,000 hits and for some motive has but to look on a small-committee poll. That’s it.

We haven’t even talked about pitch framing. For the previous a number of years, I’ve used a system cobbled collectively from each our framing stats (which return to 2008, the beginning of the Pitch f/x period) and people of Baseball Prospectus, the place Max Marchi got here up with the Retroframing methodology utilizing referred to as strikes above common going again to the daybreak of the pitch rely period (1988 onward). Mauer was about 38 runs above common for these early years (2004–07) and 28 above for the later ones. Using FanGraphs’ model of WAR, which contains our framing numbers, and a runs-to-wins conversion based mostly on seasonal numbers (someplace within the 9–10 run vary) for the BP ones, Mauer provides 3.8 WAR to his whole. When I do a JAWS-like calculation utilizing these adjusted fWAR figures, his fJAWS is 2.6 greater than his JAWS:

Piazza, an unheralded framer in his day however really an distinctive one based mostly on Retroframing, has an fJAWS 11 factors greater than his JAWS; that of Rodriguez is 0.6 decrease. I’m forgoing the upcoming discussions concerning Posey, Molina, McCann, and Martin for the sake of area, however these are 4 of the very best for whom we’ve fdata, and we’ll be doing them a grave disservice if we don’t incorporate these figures into future Hall deliberations. And in the event you’re of the thoughts that framing is by some means dishonest as a result of it takes benefit of the constraints of umpiring, each on the subject of what’s sensible and what’s humanly potential, notice that the league itself publishes its personal framing numbers on Baseball Savant and has inspired their proliferation elsewhere, as Lewie Pollis identified. This is an formally accepted a part of the sport.

Anyway, I’m of the thoughts that Mauer is worthy of a spot on each voter’s poll, and he’ll definitely be on mine. I’ve been bracing for the chance that he gained’t get to 75% this time, each due to the BBWAA’s observe document and since his case requires some digging and comparability. With Beltré and holdover Todd Helton (72.2% final yr) the obvious honorees amid a crowded image that features Sheffield (55% in his ninth yr), Billy Wagner (68.1% in his eighth), and Utley, I projected that Mauer can be elected subsequent yr alongside Wagner in my most up-to-date five-year electoral outlook. I stay optimistic about his possibilities long-term, however I dearly hope BBWAA voters can perform a little to make up for previous sins by beating that timetable.