Daniel Vogelbach Deal Continues Toronto’s Tepid Offseason

The Blue Jays signed a lefty-swinging first baseman/designated hitter whose title begins with a V and an O, however it wasn’t Joey Votto. As place gamers report back to camps, the longtime Red and all-time chief in video games performed by a Canadian-born main leaguer stays a free agent. Instead, the Blue Jays added Daniel Vogelbach on a minor league take care of an invite to spring coaching. At his greatest, the well-traveled 31-year-old may also help the Blue Jays, however in context, his limitations present yet one more reminder of the group’s underwhelming offseason.

Vogelbach’s deal requires him to make $2 million if he’s within the majors, in accordance to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. This is definitely his second go-round with the Blue Jays, however you’re forgiven in case you want your reminiscence jogged. He spent 10 days with the group throughout the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, between being bought from the Mariners and misplaced on waivers to the Brewers; inside that span, he performed two video games, going 0-for-4 with a stroll and two strikeouts. After spending all of 2021 with the Brewers, he cut up ’22 between the Pirates and Mets, with an efficient stretch-run stint for the latter, after which spent final yr in Queens as nicely.

Despite a productive opening month to his 2023 season, Vogelbach hit simply .213/.326/.348 (92 wRC+) by the tip of June, a span that included an eight-day benching for the needs of a psychological break. He was a lot better from July onward, batting .258/.355/.475 (131 wRC+) with eight homers in 138 plate appearances, besides, he was an afterthought in September. He made simply 5 begins that month, none within the Mets’ closing 16 video games, with simply three of his 24 plate appearances for September coming in that span. Unsurprisingly, he was nontendered in November.

Even in a down season, Vogelbach once more confirmed a wonderful batting eye, chasing simply 24.1% of pitches exterior the strike zone and strolling 13.2% of the time; that mentioned, his strikeout price crept to 25.4%, his highest since 2019. He didn’t get sufficient taking part in time to qualify for Statcast’s percentile cutoffs, however his 91.7 mph common exit velo and 50% hard-hit price would have landed on the 86th and 93rd percentiles, respectively.

Vogelbach is a participant with apparent limitations. He didn’t play a single recreation within the discipline throughout his Mets tenure, had simply 5 for the Pirates earlier than being dealt in July 2022, and owns DH-caliber metrics at first base for his seven-year profession (1,059.2 innings, -8 RAA, -15 DRS). He went 0-for-15 with a stroll and eight strikeouts in opposition to lefties in 2023, and has been completely helpless in opposition to them for his profession (.129/.248/.215, 35 wRC+ in 323 PA). He’s by no means even tried a stolen base within the majors, a sensible selection given his 2nd-percentile dash pace. That’s not the best participant to suit onto a roster, and if Vogelbach does stick to the Blue Jays, he’s not prone to get a ton of taking part in time except issues go fallacious elsewhere. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the incumbent first baseman, and Toronto signed the righty-swinging Justin Turner to a one-year, $13 million deal to function its major DH whereas recognizing throughout the infield, as he did final yr with the Red Sox. Turner hit for only a 105 wRC+ in opposition to righties (.273/.335/.430 in 462 PA) in 2023, however which will have been an aberration given his 132 wRC+ in opposition to them over the earlier three seasons. He doesn’t want a platoon associate.

Given the dimensions of the position in query, it’s not tremendously laborious to know why the Blue Jays signed Vogelbach as an alternative of the 40-year-old Votto, who grew to become a free agent after 17 seasons with the Reds and who scuffled in 2023. Coming off of August 2022 surgical procedure to restore tears in his left rotator cuff and biceps, Votto didn’t make his season debut till June 19, and whereas he homered off Austin Gomber in his second plate look, he hit simply .202/.314/.433 (98 wRC+) with 14 homers in 208 PA. Save for his slugging proportion and barrel price, neither that slash line nor his underlying Statcast numbers had been pretty much as good as these of Vogelbach.

The Blue Jays confirmed curiosity in Votto early within the offseason, with normal supervisor Ross Atkins saying, “Incredible reputation, really dynamic personality, really bright (person) that I know our team would embrace… But I think that’s the case for probably 15 teams.” Based on Votto’s background, he added a possible for “massive impact in the community if he were to be a Toronto Blue Jay.”

Despite the apparent attraction, nothing ever materialized, and within the wake of the Turner signing, we will infer that the Blue Jays might not have been prepared to supply Votto — whose 2022 manufacturing was underwhelming amid his shoulder woes — sufficient taking part in time. To date, it doesn’t seem that any group has supplied the right combination of alternative and cash. On January 11, USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale reported that three teams were interested in Votto, and in his Sunday notebook a few days later mentioned the Blue Jays and Brewers as potential fits. The last report of a team’s curiosity in him got here on January 24, when Heyman related Votto to the Angels. That similar day, Reds GM Nick Krall informed season ticket holders he had no plans to convey again the franchise icon. Since these sparkles of curiosity, the Blue Jays added Turner and the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins. Meanwhile, the longer term Hall of Fame first baseman has popped up on the NHL All-Star Game within the firm of Gritty and different mascots and quoted Dylan Thomas on Instagram, however in any other case, he’s been quiet on social media.

.@JoeyVotto is having the time of his life on the @NHL All-Star Game ?

through joeyvotto/IG pic.twitter.com/hBSOQfUhCr

— Cut4 (@Cut4) February 3, 2024

The Blue Jays/Votto connection has at all times been extra speculative than substantial, however, just like the Vogelbach signing, it’s a minimum of attention-grabbing sufficient to underscore simply how unremarkable Toronto’s offseason has been. Coming off an 89-win season by which it claimed the third AL Wild Card spot however made a fast two-and-through exit, the group hasn’t made something that may very well be characterised as an impression transfer, even after displaying indicators of grand ambitions.

For a quick time, it appeared that the Blue Jays had received the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, however alas that rumor proved unfaithful. With the doable exception of signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with whom they met earlier than he selected the Dodgers as nicely, nothing else they may have carried out would have been as impactful. But they a minimum of appeared to be pondering huge by displaying sufficient curiosity in Cody Bellinger to be thought of co-favorites (together with the Cubs) to signal him as Christmas approached, and he stays a free agent as of this writing. Instead, in late December, the Blue Jays re-signed Kevin Kiermaier — a spectacular fielder however a league-average hitter who turns 34 in April — to a one-year, $10.5 million deal, presumably to be their common middle fielder between Daulton Varsho in left and George Springer in proper.

And then there’s Toronto’s strategy to its third base state of affairs. Matt Chapman hit free company after an uneven season that included a .255/.346/.449 (121 wRC+) line by August 12, when he sprained his proper center finger in a weight room mishap, and a .163/.250/.302 (54 wRC+) line the remainder of the best way; he initially missed three video games after struggling the harm, then 15 extra after making an attempt to play by it. The Blue Jays, who reportedly supplied Chapman an extension north of $100 million over 4 or 5 years earlier than he reached free company, prolonged him a $20.325 million qualifying provide, which he declined. Like Bellinger, he stays a free agent whereas the Blue Jays have moved on. Just after inking Kiermaier, they signed light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million deal, then added Turner. Though he makes extra sense becoming into the utility slot vacated by Whit Merrifield, who lately signed with the Phillies, Kiner-Falefa is at the moment projected to obtain essentially the most plate appearances of any Toronto participant at third base (231), with Turner, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, and Eduardo Escobar additionally within the combine. The 35-year-old Escobar, who started final season as Vogelbach’s teammate on the Mets earlier than being traded to the Angels, signed a minor league take care of a nonroster invitation final week; he’s trying to rebound from a dismal .226/.269/.344 (66 wRC+) efficiency in 309 PA.

Between Kiermaier, Kiner-Falefa, and Turner, that’s a not-so-grand whole of $38.5 million dedicated to free agent place gamers this winter, wanting sufficient cash to cowl the present-day worth of 1 season of Ohtani. Their different main league deal was for Cuban righthander Yariel Rodriguez — who spent 2020–22 with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons, primarily as a reliever — whom they signed to a five-year, $32 million contract. After pitching for Cuba within the World Baseball Classic final yr, Rodriguez sat out the common season whereas establishing residency within the Dominican Republic so he may change into a significant league free agent. The Blue Jays intend to construct him up as a starter, however he would possibly wind up in Triple-A or in a multi-inning bullpen position as he begins his main league profession. Meanwhile, the group will roll with a beginning 5 of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, and Alek Manoah, the final of these coming off a dreadful season after a top-three end within the AL Cy Young voting in 2022. Lefty Ricky Tiedemann, no. 28 on our new Top 100 Prospects List, may assist later within the yr, however has simply 36 innings above A-ball to his title, whereas righty Bowden Francis is being stretched out to offer extra fast depth. While they’ve been “quietly monitoring” the continuing Blake Snell market, per Nightengale, the Blue Jays have by no means appeared prone to spend huge on beginning pitching this winter; as an alternative, they’ve centered on enhancing their lineup.

Last week, Atkins mentioned, “At this point, additions that would be of significance would mean some level of subtraction,” which didn’t sound like he was leaving the sunshine on for both Bellinger or Chapman. If this is kind of the Blue Jays’ roster, in keeping with Roster Resource, their payroll sits at $235.7 million by way of precise salaries, up from $214.5 million final yr, and $248.7 million for Competitive Balance Tax functions, a hair forward of final yr’s $246.1 million and someplace between the primary and second tax thresholds ($237 million and $247 million, respectively). That’s the sport’s sixth- or seventh-highest payroll, relying on which determine you’re utilizing to rank them, so it’s not as if the Blue Jays are going low-cost.

Nor do they undertaking to be unhealthy. We have them forecast for 83.5 wins, fourth within the AL East however a part of a good group with the Yankees, Rays, and Orioles; solely 4.6 projected wins separates Toronto from New York, the projected first-place finisher. The factor is, the Blue Jays are proper on the level the place including further wins may improve their odds above their 14.2% likelihood at profitable the division title and 47.7% likelihood to make the playoffs. While their AL East competitors has added marquee gamers like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, the tip results of the Blue Jays’ grand offseason simply seems like a sequence of half measures.