Tim Anderson Has Discovered a New Dwelling

With spring coaching video games in full swing, the stress is mounting for baseball’s remaining free brokers to seek out properties. After all, no one desires to overlook out on the climate in Florida or Arizona this time of 12 months, and Opening Day is only a few weeks away. Now Tim Anderson received’t have to worry. Anderson is heading to the Miami Marlins on a one-year, $5 million deal. With a transparent path to the beginning shortstop position, the 30-year-old will little doubt hope to re-enter free company this winter having bounced again from his disappointing remaining season in Chicago.

Anderson’s slot in Miami is an attention-grabbing one. If he can keep wholesome and return to his prior type, he may assist to stabilize the shortstop place in Miami. But he additionally constitutes a dangerous addition to an already unsure Marlins lineup. It’s not arduous to think about a state of affairs the place neither Anderson nor Jazz Chisholm Jr. has an offensive bounce-back, Luis Arraez regresses, and Jake Burger’s contact overhaul proves to be only a flash within the pan; it may all go sideways fairly rapidly. But if it goes proper, this may very well be an thrilling lineup. If nothing else, the highest three of Arraez, Anderson, and Chisholm make for a really enjoyable group. Still, to ensure that issues to go proper for Anderson, he must recuperate among the BABIP expertise that have been a key motive for his success. Let’s deal with how precisely which may occur.

From 2019-2022, Anderson led the majors in batting common with a .318 mark. On a success per plate look foundation, no one was extra productive. Then in 2023, he cratered. Knee, shoulder, forearm, and neck accidents all contributed to the contact hitter dropping to a 60 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR in 123 video games. Add to that considerations about his capacity to stay at shortstop, and you’ve got your self a participant who fell $3 million in need of his median crowdsourced contract prediction. The form of Anderson’s manufacturing by means of his profitable four-year run was inherently unstable. He undoubtedly possessed expertise that propelled him to run above-average BABIPs, however the margin for error for that hitting model is razor skinny; a handful of accidents and a few lack of power could make an in any other case productive profile virtually unplayable.

Last week, I wrote about Anderson as a part of my evaluation of the variance amongst hitters with steep swings. The piece in contrast how hitters with steep Vertical Bat Angles (VBA), the angle of the barrel at contact relative to the bottom, can have extraordinarily completely different offensive profiles due to the opposite elements at play relating to measuring bat path. Despite an especially steep VBA that’s on par with some fly ball heavy hitters, Anderson had a league-leading groundball price as a result of different limiting features of his swing. From 2021-2023, Anderson’s VBA was between the 96th and 97th percentile. It’s a trait he has had for some time, together with in his profitable offensive seasons. But as his VBA remained constant, different elements modified.

Last season, Anderson made contact very deep within the zone, rather more so than within the earlier three years. With his inside-out swing, he has usually been capable of constantly hit line drives even with deep contact factors. That is a standard talent amongst contact hitters as a result of they have an inclination to create a ton of depth of their bat path, which will get them on airplane with the ball deep within the hitting zone. But like I stated earlier than, this model of hitting has razor skinny margins. If a hitter begins making even deeper contact than typical, they will discover themselves operating a 60% groundball price once they had usually hovered within the mid-50s.

In addition to contact level, you’ll be able to have a look at different bat monitoring elements corresponding to Attack Angle (AA) to grasp what might have modified for Anderson. But earlier than doing that, I need to observe how AA and VBA differ from each other in order that we would higher perceive their relationship. VBA is the angle of the barrel relative to the bottom on the level of contact. AA is the angle of the trail the barrel is on at contact. AA is an expression of the vertical course the bat is transferring in, whereas VBA is merely a snapshot at contact. Ideally, a participant desires their barrel to be on an upward trajectory by means of contact as a result of it instantly impacts launch angle. A participant’s vary of AA will rely upon how a lot power they’ve; the stronger they’re, the upper their vary of AA may be. However, it ought to all the time be optimistic.

In the previous, AA information hasn’t been publicly accessible, however fortunately SwingGraphs simply made some information obtainable final week, so we don’t should do as a lot guess work. It’s not uncooked AA information, however they did give percentile rankings from 2019-2023, which is simply as helpful. Here is a fast snapshot of how Anderson’s VBA and AA have trended:

Even as Anderson’s VBA has remained constant in the previous few seasons, his AA has continued to fall. As his AA has fallen, so has his xwOBACON. Last season, he posted his lowest xwOBACON since earlier than his offensive breakout. Getting again to his greatest swing would require him reversing some regarding tendencies in his AA. Perhaps improved well being would possibly assist in him in that, however it’s not a given. To present an instance of one other contact hitter with an analogous swing model that has been constant for a number of seasons in a row, look no additional than Arraez, Anderson’s new center infield mate. Last season, he ran a ninety fifth percentile VBA with a twenty third percentile AA. In 2022, he ran an 82nd percentile VBA with a forty first percentile AA. The hole between Arraez’s AA and VBA in 2023 was important, however not almost as massive as Anderson’s. In truth, no hitter with at the very least 225 batted balls in 2023 had a bigger hole between their AA and VBA than Anderson. If he desires to take advantage of his expertise, he’ll should get his swing working in a extra optimistic course by means of contact by rising his AA again to his 2019-2021 ranges. On high of seeing how Arraez has balanced these two measures, he already has his personal blueprint for achievement.

I do know this may be arduous to conceptualize with out really seeing a spotlight of Anderson’s swing path, however I wish to simplify it like this: No matter how steep or flat your VBA is, it’s perfect for any hitter to have their bat working up by means of contact. Flatter may be good relying on the peak of the pitch or the hitter, however the stage Anderson was at in 2023 is a launch angle distribution killer. Maybe Arraez’s method can assist Anderson. It’s all the time good to have a like-minded hitter in the identical clubhouse. However, it’s been a multi-year development of transferring within the fallacious course for Anderson. It’ll take a major bodily adjustment for him to reverse it.

It’ll be thrilling to see if Anderson can bounce again. If all goes nicely, he’ll play nearer to his offensive ceiling and enter free company with a chance to safe a multi-year offers, maybe having contributed to sudden playoff pushes in Miami.