Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/30/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to a different version of my Tuesday chat!

Jay Jaffe: I’m a bit late in setting this up right now as I used to be scrambling to file a bit on Padres knuckleballer Matt Waldron that can truly run tomorrow.

Jay Jaffe: We’ll give this a couple of minutes for the queue to refill and for me to complete this structurally unsound turkey sandwich.

the one that asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: My common go-to after I make a sandwich at dwelling: Boar’s Head cracked pepper smoked turkey on Arnold Country White bread with mayo, mustard (eye-watering stuff from Philippe The Original, dwelling of the French dip), sliced cucumber, and Potbelly Giardiniera (ikyky).

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Jay, how lengthy til we get a actual playing scandal in MLB? i.e. one truly involving gamers betting or offering insider information?

Jay Jaffe: i stay skeptical that there’s any participant silly sufficient to do that, however then for those who requested me in 2015 whether or not this nation would get as silly because it has, I wouldn’t have thought so. And but right here we’re, one pandemic, two impeachments, one tried coup and an existential menace to democracy later.

Josh: Where are you on Andy Pages? Above-average common going ahead or nervous concerning the swing and miss, nonetheless?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been pleasantly stunned thus far on condition that he’s getting back from shoulder surgical procedure, which typically tends to sap a hitter’s energy. I believe he’ll all the time have swing and miss points however like prime Chris Taylor be capable of offset that along with his energy and common offensive skill. He’s bought a 132 wRC+ proper now, and whereas I don’t count on him to keep up that, I believe he has a shot at being the best of the Dodgers’ outfielders apart from Teoscar Hernández.

Talfred: Although Volpe has come again right down to earth after his scorching begin, have we seen sufficient to say with confidence that he’s a considerably higher participant than he confirmed final yr?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he’s improved a good bit, however his underlying Statcast numbers counsel it’s fairly sublte; he’s truly barreling the ball much less typically and his x-stats are fairly related. Where he’s actually improved is in controlling the strike zone; his swinging strike charge has dropped from 12.5% to six.5% as he’s shaved about 5 factors off his chase charge. I believe we’re due for a more in-depth have a look at him quickly.

BLEES: Edwin Diaz throwing a USDA Certified Meatball final night time was simply what the physician ordered for this Cubs offense. If they will cling above .500 till Belli and Suzuki are again are they the staff to beat within the NLC?

Jay Jaffe: It’s an extended season and no one goes to run away with the NL Central. The Cubs’ lineup has a ton of gamers who aren’t producing, and their run prevention is nothing particular. I do assume they must be happy with Shota Imanaga’s first month, and likewise Michael Busch.

Travis: Is it time to be involved about Acuna but? He seems to be rooooough and the numbers again it up

Jay Jaffe: I’d be a bit involved given how dramatically his numbers have eroded — strikeout charge greater than doubled,  not hitting the ball as exhausting (xSLG down about 280 factors!). undecided what’s happening however this simply proves that Mookie Betts ought to have been the NL MVP final yr .

Matt VW: Thinking about your article on under substitute degree vets, Xander Bogaerts is off to a fairly bumpy begin too. He’s not that previous, however is at a second in his profession the place we would infer the beginning of a decline section for a center infielder. Is this extra of an “it’s April” factor, or do the underlying date point out some trigger for greater than common concern?

Jay Jaffe: His numbers are unhealthy however I’m not terribly involved but. His xBA and xSLG are similar to each 2022 and ’23, however he simply hasn’t gotten his cash’s price. I do surprise if the place change is having an impression on his offense.

Travis: I imply, baseball gamers aren’t any smarter than another athletes and also you simply had a scandal within the NBA, and a number of playing suspensions within the NFL

Jay Jaffe: You’re proper, although I do assume that MLB rightfully making an instance of Pete Rose by banning him for all times looms massive. And hey, perhaps the NBA’s lifetime ban of Jontay Porter will resonate throughout sports and supply a cautionary story of what’s at stake.

Underperforming Vets: What do you consider Arozarena and Bogaerts? Both have been brutal to start out the yr and we’re over the 100 PAs mark.

Jay Jaffe: Arozarena was in yesterday’s piece linked above. He’s been attempting to make use of the entire subject extra, nevertheless it’s costing him some productiveness.

Rick: You talked about Castellanos in your under substitute article and he does look horrible. Swinging at every part off the plate. Looks like Baez chasing. Not that way back he was a very good hitter. Do you assume he ultimately turns it round or completely cooked?

Jay Jaffe: If you have a look at Castellanos’ final 5 seasons, he’s netted 3.6 WAR, which signifies that within the 4 years apart from 2021, he’s at substitute degree due to his protection and barely under league-average offense. He’s simply not an excellent ballplayer as of late. He’s solely 32 so I wouldn’t depend him out totally, however I think he’s bought changes to make if he’s going to be productive once more.

MikeD: Aaron Judge is on tempo to hit into 48 DPs, which might shatter the MLB document, and has a BABiP 50 pts. under his profession common. Cause for concern, which means the primary indicators of age regression, or only a gradual begin?

Jay Jaffe: I wrote about Judge final week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-aaron-judges-season-opening-slum…), and since then he’s hit .333/.448/.708 with three homers, so sure, it’s fairly clear that I mounted him.

Realistically, he’s by no means going to supply like 2022 once more, and his swing requires a good bit of upkeep however I hardly assume we’ve seen the final of him as an offensive power.

v2micca: It’s early, however final nights Braves Mariners recreation needs to be frontrunner for Pitching duel of the season.

Jay Jaffe: I needed to interrupt writing about Waldron to verify in on that recreation in case a minimum of one of many no-hit bids bought extra severe. I solely actually noticed its denouement, alas, however the graphic the Root Sports broadcast confirmed simply earlier than the Mariners bought their first hit was attention-grabbing:

Jay Jaffe:

Anon21: The balls are deader. (37 PA/HR this yr, 33 PA/HR final yr over the identical interval.) Could this be disproportionately hurting groups just like the Braves whose strategy was optimized for the livelier ball? Just attempting to grasp why Acuña, Riley, and Olson are all doing poorly and seemingly getting worse.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume that groups actually plan their development across the liveliness of the ball, which we’ve seen can change from yr to yr. Somewhat on the notice of the ball, I shall be taking a look on the early-season dwelling run state of affairs later this week.

Sodo Mojo: The Mariner’s offense has been pretty woeful thus far this yr.  Do you assume Garver, Raley, and Polanco will rebound or are the Mariners going to must do some important procuring on the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: The complete offense has largely been unhealthy; even Julio Rodríguez has an 88 wRC+ proper now. I strongly suspect that no matter whether or not these specific hitters rebound, if the Mariners are contending for a playoff spot, Jerry Dipoto will do some procuring.

M’s Fan: Once Woo returns, do the the M’s have the most effective rotation in baseball?

Jay Jaffe: They mission to have the second-highest WAR of any rotation for the remainder of the season, so I’d say that they’re within the operating for the title of “best”

Vance: With Holiday despatched down, what do you assume the probabilities are that Baltimore calls up Mayo or Norby over the subsequent month or two to take Urias’s at-bats?

Jay Jaffe: More probably Mayo (who’s taking part in 3B) than Norby (who’s taking part in 2B) if we’re simply speaking about Urias’ taking part in time, however I wouldn’t be tremendously stunned if Holliday is again earlier than both is named up.

BLEES: Which NL staff outdoors of Atlanta and the Dodgers has the most effective shot to safe a bye this yr?

Jay Jaffe: Our Playoff Odds give the Cubs and Phillies the most effective possibilities (13.4% and 12.1%) however my intestine says the latter has a greater likelihood. They’re the stronger ballclub of the 2 and that i simply don’t see the NL Central producing one of many league’s high two groups.

danny: is Jo Adell lastly breaking out offensively? not an excessive amount of knowledge but however xwoba trying nice and okay charge drop particularly encouraging

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, it’s not a whole lot of knowledge (59 PA, 40 BBE) however he’s swinging so much much less and making contact much more, and that’s an excellent signal.

Crazy Question: What would Sonny Gray must do to get into the HoF? I see only a few SP from this period getting in except the requirements change. I don’t assume he at the moment has any likelihood, however he appears to be getting old like a positive wine. If he can put up a 5 WAR seasons with STL, after which stick round as a mean SP till 40, does that give him any shot?

Jay Jaffe: With Gerrit Cole out, no one’s piling up innings as of late, however Gray is particularly not piling up innings, having certified for the ERA title simply as soon as previously three years. He’s in his age-34 season and has three seasons of a minimum of 5.0 bWAR; I believe he’s going to wish a bunch extra earlier than he even will get talked about in HOF phrases.

AL Central Casting: I’ve learn articles suggesting particular gamers quit switch-hitting as a result of they’re significantly poor from one aspect. It appears to me there could be a troublesome studying curve to doing so, since they’d not solely be giving up the platoon benefits primarily based on physics and geometry, but additionally the truth that they’d be seeing same-side pitching for the primary time in an extended whereas (if ever). Wouldn’t it’s extra useful to the staff to simply platoon them as a lot as doable? Related query: with the rise in specialization in baseball, will there be a time when switch-hitting is sort of extinct?

Jay Jaffe: The factor about platooning is that it doesn’t occur in a vacuum; you want the correct roster development to tug it off, and even then it carries a price as to what you are able to do with the remainder of your bench. My intestine tells me {that a} participant who’s fighting switch-hitting can most likely adapt with out an excessive amount of hassle given the low bar for enchancment, however I don’t have knowledge at hand to again that up. Would be attention-grabbing for someone to check.

Tommy: Which divisional race are you most excited to observe by means of October? Other than Dodgers most likely operating away with the NL West, the opposite 5 ought to have fairly tight races

Jay Jaffe: Probably the AL East because it’s the one I get to see probably the most from my NYC vantage. But it could be actually wild if the AL Central turns right into a 3 or 4 staff race.

Elliott: How does Vladdy Jr. have a tough hit% of 54% and a .351 slugging%, unhealthy luck or one thing else?

Jay Jaffe: His groundball charge is above 50% and he’s pulling the ball lower than ever. Not certain what’s going on there however I can think about Blue Jays followers are tearing their hair out.

Re: Nats: With all these younger shortstops (Henderson, De La Cruz, Volpe, Abrams) what would their extension numbers be? Are all of them in Bobby Witt territory?

Anon21: I don’t imply that the Braves deliberate their strategy across the ball per se–I imply they’ve adopted a reasonably all-or-nothing strategy to hitting that’s predicated on the anticipated worth of the “all” (making good contact). If that anticipated worth has meaningfully decreased, it may depart them excessive and dry.

Jay Jaffe: They’re making nice contact — first or second within the majors in EV, barrel and hard-hit charges. But they do hit a ton of grounders (fifth in MLB), and have a middle-of-the-pack strikeout charge so I’m probably not seeing how that interprets to an all-or-nothing strategy.

Alex Anthopoulos:

If you might be ducking since you vehemently acknowledged that Betts shoud have been the MVP, then you already know that one thing is just not proper in it. Care to broaden?

Jay Jaffe: Just having a bit enjoyable winding humorless Braves followers up after getting an countless quantity of shit from them for suggesting that — gasp — Betts may be worthy of the award final yr.

Dilly Dog: Think PCA finally ends up going again down, or if he hits he sticks?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he may very well be up and down for a minimum of the primary half of the season nevertheless it does rely upon how shortly Bellinger returns and the extent to which Crow-Armstrong hits. If they’re in a race late within the season, it’s clear that they worth his velocity and protection sufficient to maintain him round even when it’s simply as a bench piece.

Johnny: Is NOLAN JONES cooked – or is his horrible begin because of his damage?

Jay Jaffe: is a 25-year-old man who had a 135 wRC+ final yr and simply went on the IL for a again damage cooked? Is that what you’re asking?

Joey Doughnuts: Has there ever been a place participant in MLB historical past with as steep of an increase and subsequent fall as Kris Bryant? I really feel like folks don’t speak about this practically sufficient.

Jay Jaffe: MVP in his age-24 season, substitute level-ish from his age-30 onward? I’m struggling to consider a parallel fairly as dramatic, although I’ll notice that Jeff Burroughs was an MVP at 23 after which totaled simply 3.2 WAR from ages 28-34.

André René Roussimoff: Are the Daulton Varsho’s offensive enhancements for actual? Thanks, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical a minimum of for the second. While he’s turn into extra selective on the plate, he’s not hitting the ball exhausting in any respect, and each his xBA and xSLG are down about 40 factors from final yr, once they kind of mirrored his precise manufacturing.

Jay Jaffe: Sizemore was a star however not an MVP and champion; Bryant had a lot additional to fall.

Tim: I actually just like the Mets metropolis join however others have ripped them. What say you?

Jay Jaffe: I appreciated the jerseys OK however I believe they appear ridiculous with the white pants.

Re: Kris Bryant: Cody Bellinger?

Jay Jaffe: We’re not there but — or moderately, he does appear to have pulled out of his nosedive — however like Bryant, he does have the MVP/champion combo heights to fall from.

Re: Sonny Gray: I agree in the mean time Gray doesn’t have the numbers, however extra of a hopeful. He is ninth on the lively pitcher bWAR checklist wtih some certain hearth HOF above him however retiring quickly. Cole, Nola, and Wheeler are the one others from this era to look to also have a likelihood with good getting old. I don’t assume we’ll see many pitchers placing up 50 WAR careers and it appears somebody hitting that mark may probably turn into the HoF standards if you need any pitchers in.

Jay Jaffe: Short reply to an extended subject: I believe we’re extra prone to expertise a drought in pitchers being elected than within the requirements being lowered dramatically.

Jay Jaffe: OK of us, that’s sufficient out of me for right now. Just bear in mind: all people who’s struggling proper now could be both washed up, cooked, or simply completely by means of. Panic now, and once more tomorrow!

Jay Jaffe: I child, I child. Thanks for stopping by, and stay calm. We’ll do that once more quickly…