Xander Bogaerts’ Shoulder Fracture Provides to His Tough Season

Xander Bogaerts‘ first season as a second baseman hasn’t gone as deliberate. He’s struggled mightily on the plate to date, and whereas he’s fared higher defensively, on Monday he suffered a fracture in his left shoulder whereas diving for a ball. He may miss a few months, leaving the Padres — who regardless of going simply 27-26 to date presently occupy the third NL Wild Card spot — to fend with out him.

The damage occurred throughout the first recreation of Monday’s doubleheader in Atlanta. With the bases loaded within the third inning, Bogaerts ranged to his left to attempt to cease a Ronald Acuña Jr. grounder. He dove in time to get his glove on the ball, however he landed exhausting, and awkwardly. He instantly started writhing on the bottom and will solely wrist-flip the ball to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who noticed the play to its conclusion — a run scored, although Bogaerts’ cease most likely prevented a second one from doing in order nicely — and motioned for assist.

“As soon as I caught the ball, I heard, like, cracks. Four cracks,” Bogaerts informed reporters. “At that point, I was like, ‘Something’s wrong.’ I didn’t feel exactly like something shifted. I just felt, like, cracks.”

Four cracks! In one other telling, it was “a couple,” however with an vital element: “I didn’t feel anything come out and then go back in. The only thing I remember hearing was a couple cracks.”

Presumably Bogaerts was explaining that he didn’t really feel as if he’d suffered a soft-tissue damage. While preliminary x-rays had been damaging, a subsequent prognosis confirmed a fracture in his left shoulder, and whereas the Padres didn’t supply additional specificity, the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee reported that the fracture is in his shoulder socket. That would recommend a glenoid fracture, notably given the traumatic nature of the damage, however such accidents often contain tears of the labrum, and the Padres have since confirmed that Bogaerts didn’t undergo a tear, nor will he want surgical procedure. By comparability, when Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story dove for a ball and dislocated his left shoulder on April 5, he suffered a glenoid rim fracture and tore his posterior labrum, each of which had been addressed with season-ending surgical procedure. Under the Knife’s Will Carroll identified that given the mix of an absence of sentimental tissue harm and an preliminary report that Bogaerts’ shoulder was secure, the method of elimination factors to the scapula because the fractured bone.

That’s the excellent news, however the dangerous information is that Bogaerts remains to be anticipated to be out two to 3 months in line with Acee. Bogaerts expressed the idea that he’d be again sooner, although his phrases learn extra like an athlete’s bravado than an knowledgeable replace. “Two to three months, no,” he stated. “Nah, nah. I understand we want to be smart, but I’ll be back before that. I don’t like the sound of all those months.”

For the 31-year-old infielder, the damage is simply the most recent surprising flip in a season that hasn’t lacked for them. During spring coaching, the Padres satisfied Bogaerts — who signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the group in December 2022 and spent the next season taking part in shortstop — to change locations with the defensively superior Kim, the group’s major shortstop in ’22 and its Gold Glove-winning second baseman final yr. It’s too early to get a real learn on the returns defensively, however the prorated metrics recommend it may need value them a few runs to date:

It’s value noting that Manny Machado’s early-season absence at third base may have influenced Kim’s positioning and play, however we’re actually squinting at small samples. On a team-wide foundation, the Padres’ prorated metrics present the same hole — they had been additional above common final yr than they’re now — however when it comes to turning batted balls into outs, they’re mainly unchanged; this yr’s .704 defensive effectivity (tied for third within the NL) is on par with final yr .702, which ranked third as nicely.

On the opposite hand, it doesn’t take a lot to see that Bogaerts hasn’t been himself on the plate. Despite taking part in a lot of the 2023 season with a nagging left wrist damage that required spring and midseason cortisone pictures and compelled him to regulate his swing, he hit a good .285/.350/.440 (120 wRC+) with 19 homers and a career-high 19 steals in his inaugural season as a Padre. This yr, nonetheless, he’s slipped to .219/.265/.316 (71 wC+) with 4 homers and 4 steals. As to what’s going unsuitable, he’s not hitting the ball very exhausting, producing a career-low exit velocity and his lowest hard-hit fee since 2017. That stated, he’s hitting the ball within the air extra usually, and he’s pulling it extra usually:

Pulled or no, the shortage of oomph on these fly balls is absolutely costing him:

That hole of almost 20 toes owes one thing to cooler spring temperatures that forestall the ball from carrying so far as it does within the hotter months, however nonetheless, it’s left its mark on Bogaerts’ manufacturing.

Bogaerts spent the primary month of the season hitting leadoff, however when he addressed his droop after an April 19 0-for-4 efficiency, he refused to lean on that or final yr’s wrist troubles as an excuse. “Let’s not look for no wrist issues. Let’s not look for no leadoff spot,” he stated on the time. “The hits haven’t been falling, and it sucks when you normally get a lot of hits and now you don’t.”

Instead, Bogaerts expressed a perception that his points had been mechanical, and that his propensity to tug the ball wasn’t intentional:

“That’s actually uncommon, not like me… It ain’t being pull-happy. It’s simply rhythm, not (being) in sync.

“I’m aware that I’m hitting a lot of balls over there (left field). And I’m trying to hit it over there (right field), but I still can’t do it. So, that’s the frustration… Like, you want to do something and you feel like you’re not in a position to be able to do it, or your body doesn’t allow you to do it just by the way I’m putting myself in position as I’m going to take a swing. That causes the mistakes that I keep doing. It’s really, really hard for me to go the other way.”

Bogaerts had improved barely since then, hitting .243/.269/.369 (85 wRC+) since April 20, however even that’s fairly cringeworthy. One extra clue might supply some perception: Per The Athletic, Bogaerts reportedly has handled hip discomfort and soreness, which he attributed to the place swap. Particularly given how important hip rotation is to producing bat velocity, I do surprise if that’s been an element. Multiyear bat velocity information can be useful for comparisons, however the just lately launched information doesn’t supply a lot assist past telling us that Bogaerts’ bat velocity ranks within the thirty first percentile. His splits by month (70.5 mph in March/April and 70.9 in May) don’t shed any additional gentle.

Perhaps the time without work will enable Bogaerts a reset that helps him rediscover his stroke. As for the way the Padres will proceed with out him, on a group whose lineup is made virtually totally out of shortstops, it’s not the steepest problem to search out one or two able to filling in at second base. Since I wrote this in early April, the group has traded for Luis Arraez, who even earlier than Bogaerts’ damage had made three begins on the keystone whereas Bogaerts DHed; he took the primary three begins after Bogaerts’ damage. Arraez’s bat has heated up for the reason that May 4 commerce; he now has a .341/.382/.422 (134 wRC+) season line on the again of a .419/.449/.514 (184 wRC+) exhibiting with San Diego, however his protection at second is questionable sufficient that the Padres choose him as a DH. Last yr with Miami, he had 4 DRS and a pair of.4 UZR however -7 FRV in 1,124 innings at second base, whereas this yr in 332 innings he’s at -1 DRS, -2.1 UZR, and -6 FRV.

Starting Arraez at second opens up the DH slot for different gamers. Machado, who didn’t play the sector this season till April 26 whereas recovering from October surgical procedure to restore his extensor tendon in his proper elbow, has been DHing each third or fourth recreation there these days.

Asked on Wednesday who would fill in for the injured Bogaerts, supervisor Mike Shildt had this to say:

“We’re nonetheless within the technique of figuring that out… There are some issues that we’re fascinated about that may come into play the subsequent couple of days that we’ll discover. We have plenty of choices between three or 4 completely different guys.

“We’ll be somewhat creative with that, relative to what we’re seeing, and the pitching. But we’ll also create some stability that we think people will like.”

The almost definitely choices moreover the lefty-swinging Arraez are hot-hitting righty Donovan Solano (.348/.423/.391 in 26 PA since signing with the group in mid-April), lefty Tyler Wade (.260/.341/.288, 94 wRC+), and lefty Jake Cronenworth (.263/.329/.453, 127 wRC+). Cronenworth was the group’s common second baseman from 2020–22 earlier than transferring to first base. He’s a greater fielder than Arraez, and he did play 35 video games at second final yr, so in a longer-term association it’d make sense to swap the 2, as Arraez does have some first base expertise; so does Solano, for that matter, however he’s much less more likely to play day by day. On Thursday, with Reds righty Frankie Montas on the mound, the Padres rolled with Cronenworth making his season debut at second, Arraez at first, and Jurickson Profar at DH; lefty David Peralta, who signed a minor league take care of the group final week and was recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take Bogaerts’ roster spot, performed left discipline in Profar’s stead.

For as tempting because it is perhaps to recommend that the Padres may very well be higher with out Bogaerts given his droop, the truth is that his contract makes him a long-term fixture, and any actual success that they’ve most likely relies upon upon him recovering his type. Hopefully when he’s healed sufficient to start working his method again, he’ll rediscover his outdated stroke.