Matt Strahm Destroyed the Market. Now He’s Smashing Expectations

If Matt Strahm wasn’t in your radar earlier than this season, I can’t blame you. The left-hander put up more and more worse outcomes throughout his 4 years with the Padres, culminating in a 2021 season misplaced to damage. He bounced again the next yr as a stable center reliever for the Red Sox, besides, he was hardly a free agent to look at this winter. He solely made headlines as a result of the two-year, $15 million deal he signed with the Phillies was extra profitable than anybody anticipated for him; an unnamed government claimed that the contract “destroyed the market” for left-handed relievers.

A number of years again, although, Strahm was a top-100 prospect and probably the most promising identify in the Royals’ system. He earned his first characteristic right here at FanGraphs in August 2016 in a bit that known as him “a new relief weapon.” He was marvelous that season, posting a 1.23 ERA and a pair of.06 FIP throughout 22 innings for the reigning world champs. A yr later, he earned one other look from the FanGraphs employees, this time because the headlining return within the Trevor Cahill commerce between the Royals and Padres. The summer season after that, Strahm was as soon as once more the star of a FanGraphs story, this one about his work as an opener. Travis Sawchik checked out Strahm’s success and questioned if “Hader Lite” was an applicable nickname. That’s excessive reward, certainly.

All this to say, Strahm isn’t just a few man, irrespective of how a lot his new nickname (Pastrami, i.e. “Pa-strahm-i”) makes him sound just like the supervisor of an old-time Brooklyn deli or a child from The Little Rascals. At the identical time, he hasn’t been notably related for a number of years, and as he entered his age-31 season, you may need thought the previous prime prospect was achieved making headlines.

Six video games into his Phillies profession, Strahm calls for consideration. He ranks tenth amongst National League pitchers (min. 20 IP) with a 2.31 ERA and among the many prime 10 in all the most important ERA estimators: FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA. The solely different NL pitchers who can say the identical are Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen, and Max Fried — arguably the early-season frontrunners for the National League Cy Young.

Strahm is certainly one of eight NL starters to have struck out greater than ten batters in a sport this yr; that star-studded checklist additionally contains Strider, Gallen, Zack Wheeler, and Logan Webb. All the extra spectacular, Strahm issued simply two free passes in that contest, and he achieved the feat in fewer than six innings pitched. Eleven of his 16 outs have been Ks; greater than half the batters he confronted walked again to the dugout, hanging their heads in disgrace. Sure, that outing got here towards a dreadful Rockies lineup, however dominating dangerous groups is what good pitchers do, and extra to the purpose, the Rockies, for all their faults, have put the ball in play at a league-average price.

As I’m required to confess by regulation, six video games and 23.1 innings is a tiny pattern. Still, Strahm should be doing one thing proper to wind up in the identical firm as Strider, Gallen, and Fried. It’s onerous to hoodwink all of the superior metrics without delay, and you may’t faux a double-digit strikeout sport. So after years of laying low, Strahm is as soon as once more calling for a FanGraphs characteristic. How is he pulling it off?

When the Phillies signed Strahm in December, I wrote about his numerous array of pitches, an traditional trait for a bullpen arm. He was the one left-handed reliever final season (min. 40 IP) to throw 5 completely different pitches a minimum of 9% of the time. I theorized that Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham would work with Strahm to regulate his arsenal, specializing in his greatest pitches reasonably than throwing the kitchen sink. That has already occurred to some extent, with Strahm ditching his least efficient providing (a changeup) and including 4 inches of horizontal motion to his breaking ball, turning it from a curveball right into a slider, in line with Baseball Savant. Different sources have completely different concepts about methods to label his breaking ball(s) — Strahm has known as himself “a slurvy guy” — however the important thing takeaway right here is that the pitch is transferring greater than it did earlier than.

Dropping the changeup has helped; opposing hitters posted a .558 wOBA towards the pitch from 2020 to ’22. Meanwhile, Strahm’s new and improved breaking ball is working wonders. Last yr, his “curveball” had a 22.7% whiff price, 18.9% put-away price, and .245 xwOBA. This yr, his “slider” has a 46.4% whiff price, 40% put-away price, and .181 xwOBA. That’s a significant enchancment. At the identical time, it’s onerous to inform why his breaking ball has been so profitable. Adding some additional break is nice, however there isn’t something exceptional in regards to the velocity or motion profile of the pitch. Moreover, neither of the pitch high quality fashions out there at FanGraphs (Stuff+ and PitchingBot) has been impressed with the stuff or location of (what they classify as) his slider:

In reality, neither Stuff+ nor PitchingBot thinks a lot of Strahm’s stuff or command usually. His Stuff+ is common, his Location+ is simply above common, and his PitchingBot stuff and command are each at a forty five on the 20–80 scale:

But right here’s the kicker: Strahm’s general PitchingBot numbers are exceptional. He leads all NL pitchers (min. 20 IP) with a 63 general rating. His PitchingBot anticipated ERA is 2.72 — one more ERA estimator that ranks Strahm among the many greatest within the sport.

So how does he have such nice PitchingBot numbers regardless of mediocre stuff and command? It’s all about context. Strahm has been throwing the appropriate pitches in the appropriate moments, and it’s paying off massive time.

The three classes of variables that PitchingBot makes use of to measure pitch high quality are stuff (velocity, spin price, and many others.), location (pitch peak, horizontal place on the plate), and context (pitcher/batter handedness, strike zone peak, rely). Therefore, if Strahm isn’t succeeding with stuff or location, he should be doing a wonderful job choosing his pitches. That is smart, as he doesn’t blow the ball previous hitters with excessive velocity or misleading stuff, nor does he thrive on smooth contact; his fastball velocity ranks within the twenty third percentile, and his common exit velocity is within the twelfth. Instead, he’s operating a Ninety fifth-percentile strikeout price as a result of he is aware of when to make use of every of his pitches. The complete of his arsenal is bigger than the sum of its elements.

Indeed, I believe all of it comes again to the range of Strahm’s pitch combine. While he not throws his changeup, he nonetheless has 4 weapons he can use in nearly any spot and has used all 4 (to various levels) towards each right- and left-handed hitters. He has thrown every one as the primary pitch of an at-bat and every because the final. He has used all of them when he’s forward within the rely, and he’s used all of them when he’s behind. This isn’t to say he’s utilizing his pitches willy-nilly, however when a pitcher is comfy throwing any of his pitches at any time, he can decide one of the best one to make use of in any given state of affairs. For instance, his go-to fastball towards righties is his four-seam, and his go-to towards lefties is his sinker. But he’s not afraid to combine that up: He has induced three swinging strikeouts utilizing his sinker towards right-handed hitters and two known as strikeouts utilizing his four-seam towards lefties.

What’s extra, Strahm throws all of his pitches in a number of areas and doesn’t depend on hitting one specific spot. As an instance, he can throw his breaking ball proper over the plate or use it to jam right-handed hitters on the within nook:

He has used his breaking ball as a wonderful put-away pitch however hasn’t been afraid to make use of it in troublesome conditions, throwing 4 sliders in 3–2 counts and incomes three strikeouts.

Strahm has at all times been a cerebral pitcher, so it shouldn’t be too stunning that he’s succeeding because of good sequencing and pitch choice. This offseason, as an example, he defined to our David Laurila that he approaches left- and right-handed hitters otherwise relying on which arm they throw with. “If he’s right-handed with a dominant right hand, a fastball up he can probably get to. If he’s left-handed with a dominant left hand, same thing. Conversely, Rafael Devers is really good against the breaking ball down, because he gets to drop his right hand — his dominant hand — on the pitch. And where does he struggle? Fastball up.”

The draw back to such a scholarly strategy is that it’s one thing opposing groups can determine; catching on to a pitcher’s sequence is less complicated than catching as much as his blistering fastball. Consequently, I’m uncertain Strahm will proceed pitching this nicely all season. I additionally suppose this explains why the Phillies have prevented him from pitching deeper into video games. You may assume he’d be allowed to construct up his pitch rely, however supervisor Rob Thomson pulled him after 5.1 scoreless innings and solely 60 pitches in his most up-to-date outing towards Seattle, straight after he retired the nine-hole hitter for a second time; presumably, he didn’t need Strahm dealing with the Mariners’ order a 3rd time via.

As a matter of reality, the Phillies are nonetheless planning to return him to the bullpen regardless of his success as a starter. When Ranger Suárez comes off the IL, he’s anticipated to take Strahm’s spot within the rotation, although Strahm has outperformed fifth starter Bailey Falter. The Phillies, it appears, suppose Strahm is best in brief bursts, earlier than opponents have the possibility to determine his strikes.

It’s a disgrace Strahm received’t get to proceed beginning — if there’s any probability he can preserve this up, I need to see him strive — however all issues thought-about, he’s extra prone to succeed as a reliever. Historically, his velocity has been increased out of the bullpen, and an uptick in his stuff will solely assist him to maintain hitters on their toes. But whereas he received’t compete with Strider, Gallen, and Fried within the Cy Young race for much longer, that doesn’t imply he received’t prolong his breakout efficiency. After all, a man doesn’t have to turn into an ace to exceed expectations; Strahm has already achieved so simply by serving as a succesful starter over the primary month of the season. Whatever he does subsequent is just icing on the two-year, $15 million cake. Destroying the market by no means felt so good.