Grocery value inflation falls for fifth month in a row, retail information suggests

Grocery value inflation has eased for the fifth month in a row – as the price of some staples come down.

Closely watched information from Kantar Worldpanel, which tracks grocery store gross sales and payments, discovered that whereas the expense of a meals store remains to be increased than final yr, the tempo of value rises has been slowing down this summer season.

Its researchers reported a grocery value inflation fee of 12.7% within the 4 weeks to six August – a 2.2 share level drop from the month earlier than.

Kantar stated a fall in the price of some staples was an element. It stated customers paid £1.50 for 4 pints of milk final month, down from £1.69 in March.

The common value of a litre of sunflower oil is now stated to be £2.19 – 22 pence lower than within the spring.

Kantar’s head of retail and client perception, Fraser McKevitt, stated: “The newest slowdown in value rises is the second sharpest month-to-month fall since we began monitoring grocery inflation on this approach again in 2008.

“Prices are still up year on year across every supermarket shelf, but consumers will have been relieved to see the cost of some staple goods starting to edge down compared with earlier in 2023.”

He stated the common enhance in households’ weekly grocery store is £5.13, when put next with final yr.

Researchers additionally discovered that the current moist climate throughout a lot of the UK had an affect on supermarkets’ figures in July.

Sales of ice cream and Halloumi had been down round 30% – whereas purchases of soppy drinks fell by practically a fifth.

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However gross sales of soup – historically seen as a winter hotter product – had been up 16% year-on-year.

Kantar stated the gloomy climate was additionally prone to have contributed to a drop in footfall, which was down for the primary time in 18 months as individuals made 320,000 fewer journeys to supermarkets in comparison with a yr in the past.

Overall take-home grocery gross sales rose by 6.5% within the 4 weeks to six August, down from 10.4% within the earlier interval.

But researchers stated different supermarkets could quickly profit from the collapse of Wilko, which went into administration final week.

The chain’s 400 shops stay open – for now – however its long-term future is unsure.

“Wilko is a popular choice for many shoppers with 7.6 million households visiting its stores to buy groceries in the last year,” stated Mr McKevitt.

He added: “Wilko’s rivals will be keeping a close eye on its fortunes in the coming days and weeks as they look to draw some of its shoppers through their doors.”

Kantar’s analysis comes forward of latest official inflation figures, that are as a consequence of be launched by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday morning.

Last month it reported a bigger-than-expected drop within the fee to 7.9% within the yr as much as June.

The Bank of England then determined to boost rates of interest for the 14th time in a row to five.25% as a part of makes an attempt to carry inflation again right down to its goal of two%.

Inflation is predicted to fall once more this week, though consultants imagine it’s unlikely the Bank will obtain its goal this yr.

The Bank of England’s chief economist, Huw Pill, additionally stated final week that meals costs could by no means fall again to the extent they had been earlier than the conflict in Ukraine started.

Separate figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) earlier this month additionally prompt meals value inflation has been falling in current months, with the price of some staples coming down.

But it warned the pattern could not proceed easily this yr as a result of there have been “dark clouds on the horizon”.

The BRC stated this included the potential affect on costs of Russia’s determination to drag out of a deal to permit the secure export of grain from Ukraine, in addition to a ban by the Indian authorities on the export of some forms of rice.