Hitter zStats Getting into the Homestretch, Half 2 (The Stats!)
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
One of the unusual issues about projecting baseball gamers is that even outcomes themselves are small samples. Full seasons end in particular numbers which have minimal predictive worth, corresponding to BABIP for pitchers. The predictive worth isn’t actually zero — particular person seasons type a lot of the idea of projections, whether or not math-y ones like ZiPS or just our private opinions on how good a participant is — however we've to develop instruments that enhance our capacity to clarify a few of these stats. It’s not sufficient to know that the variety of residence runs allowed by a pitcher is unstable; we have to understand how and why pitchers permit homers past a common sense of pitching poorly or being Jordan Lyles.
Data like that which...