2023 Home Run Derby Preview: Swinging for the Fences in Seattle

In the midst of a season during which he gained AL Rookie of the Year honors and helped the Mariners break their 21-year playoff drought, Julio Rodríguez took a star flip at the 2022 Home Run Derby. The 21-year-old phenom thrilled the group at Dodger Stadium by crushing 32 homers within the first spherical, together with 9 of at the very least 440 ft, and defeated Corey Seager, 32-24. He adopted that by knocking off two-time defending champion Pete Alonso within the semifinals, 31-23, earlier than falling to Juan Soto within the finals, 19-18. With this 12 months’s Derby going down at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, Rodríguez will attempt to develop into the fourth participant to win the occasion on his dwelling discipline, after the Cubs’ Ryne Sandberg (1990), the Reds’ Todd Frazier (2015), and the Nationals’ Bryce Harper (2018).

What’s extra, Rodríguez, who’s seeded seventh this 12 months on the idea of the eight contributors’ dwelling run totals by means of July 4, will once more match up with the second-seeded Alonso within the first spherical — a pairing that coincidentally options the one two returning contributors from final 12 months. The stakes are excessive for Alonso right here, as he’s nonetheless in search of to affix Seattle icon Ken Griffey Jr. as the one three-time winners in Derby historical past. To try this, he could should defeat one other acquainted opponent: sixth-seeded Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who was the runner-up when Alonso gained for the primary time in 2019.

I’ll get to the contributors shortly, however first, the format, which is alongside the strains of what has been used for the occasion since 2015, a set of modifications that has completed wonders for the watchability of this spectacle. The competitors might be an eight-man, single elimination bracket that makes use of timed rounds of three minutes apiece for the primary two rounds and two minutes for the ultimate spherical, by which level the rivals are typically fairly gassed. Each competitor will get a further 30-second bonus in every spherical, and might earn a further 30-second bonus if he hits at the very least two dwelling runs with projected distances of at the very least 440 ft in response to Statcast.

Each participant is allowed to name one 45-second timeout to be used throughout regulation time; it might’t be used throughout bonus time, although every participant will get a break between the regulation and bonus segments. The lower-seeded participant in every spherical goes first, and the spherical will finish within the equal of a walk-off if the upper seed surpasses his whole. If two contestants are tied after the bonus time, they every get a 60-second spherical with no bonus time or timeouts, and in the event that they’re nonetheless tied after that, they every get rounds of three swings apiece till a winner is determined. The winner of the Derby will take dwelling $1 million of the $2.5 million whole pot.

The Derby arrives amid a season during which dwelling run charges are on the rebound thanks at the very least partly to a livelier ball — one with a decrease coefficient of drag — than final 12 months’s. Where groups averaged 1.07 dwelling runs per sport final 12 months, the bottom mark since 2015, they’re as much as 1.16 this 12 months, proper round the place they have been in ’16 and ’18 however nonetheless under the record-setting ’19 season (1.39 per sport) and the elevated charges of ’20 and ’21. Similarly, hard-hit fly balls — these with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater — are touring a median of 366 ft, one foot farther than final 12 months however one lower than 2021, and 9 ft under the height in 2019. However, they don’t carry as nicely at T-Mobile Park, which is simply 10 ft above sea stage, close to the water, and one of many hardest parks to hit in total. This 12 months, those self same hard-hit fly balls are averaging 359 ft at T-Mobile, one foot lower than final 12 months and 9 ft lower than 2019:

The influence of T-Mobile’s dwelling run suppression is especially upon left-handed batters, owing to the longer distance to right-center (385 ft) than left-center (378 ft). Lefty hitters have a 94 park dwelling run issue by our five-year methodology (six p.c under league common), the place righties have a 102 issue (two p.c above league common). By Statcast’s three-year methodology, the cut up is extra excessive, with 90 for lefties and 104 for righties. Thus it shouldn’t be all that shocking that all the contestants on this 12 months’s Derby are righties, save for switch-hitter Adley Rutschman, who figures to bat righty. On that be aware, right here’s the total bracket:

And right here’s a have a look at the sector with some related stats:

The technique of seeding is unsophisticated, because the gamers are ranked based mostly upon what number of dwelling runs they’d hit when the sector was finalized on July 4, with dwelling runs since June 15 used as a tiebreaker. By that methodology, one needed to go all the best way right down to the tie for 63rd to incorporate all eight contributors. Home run totals are hardly the one measure of a slugger’s functionality, notably on this context, and whereas it’s honest to query the applicability of any of the above metrics I’ve gathered in terms of non-game conditions, it’s value appreciating the angle they supply on this group. I’ve gone past the uncooked totals to indicate how typically every contestant homers per plate look, per batted ball [HR/ (AB – SO + SF)], and per fly ball, with their common exit velocities on flies, their common projected dwelling run distance, and their barrel price, which in response to a 2019 research by Devan Fink correlates greatest with current Derby success. I’ve additionally included every participant’s Statcast-era whole of homers with projected distances of least 440 ft, the edge that the current Derbies (save for the 2021 one at Coors Field) have used for the space bonus.

Honestly, it’s not essentially the most dazzling discipline. Not that they’d have participated if wholesome, nevertheless it’s a bummer to not have Aaron Judge or Mike Trout; the latter has by no means participated within the contest. We don’t get Shohei Ohtani, main league dwelling run chief, although it’s powerful to begrudge the two-way famous person some relaxation on the heels of what could have been the best month in main league historical past. No Ronald Acuña Jr., who’s not solely within the midst of an unimaginable season when it comes to energy and velocity but in addition hits for unimaginable distance; his 426-foot common on dwelling runs is the best amongst any participant with greater than three homers. There’s no Soto to defend his title, and no Harper, both, although that’s comprehensible given the latter’s less-than-full-powered restoration from offseason Tommy John surgical procedure. Guerrero is definitely the one different participant in addition to Rodríguez and Alonso with earlier expertise on this contest, and one in every of solely three contributors with 100 profession homers, in comparison with seven of eight final 12 months.

Still, it’s a enjoyable sufficient format that it ought to be entertaining nonetheless. Here’s a have a look at the 4 matchups

(1) Robert vs. (8) Rutschman

The 25-year-old Robert is within the midst of his greatest season. He’s second within the AL in homers behind Ohtani, and has already hit greater than his 2021 and ’22 seasons mixed (25). That has one thing to do with staying wholesome, as he performed simply 166 video games in these two seasons, however he’s additionally barreling the ball extra constantly this 12 months. He has the second-highest barrel price of the group, in addition to the second-highest common dwelling run distance, and till Sunday he was additionally second in fly ball exit velocity earlier than slipping behind in a crowded discipline. Given all that, he may very well be a really enjoyable contestant.

The 25-year-old Rutschman is already an All-Star, a franchise cornerstone, and a face of baseball within the making, however statistically, it’s arduous to make a case as to why he’s a part of this discipline. He’s final among the many group in each class above — typically by rather a lot — apart from common dwelling run distance, the place he leapfrogged from sixth to fourth on Sunday by hitting the longest dwelling run of his profession, a 461-footer into the higher deck at Target Field; in actual fact, that’s the longest of any of this 12 months’s Derby contributors as nicely. What he has going for him past that demonstration of potential energy is the native hook. He’s a local of Portland who starred at Oregon State, and he’s simply your best option of candidates who’re both native to Oregon or Washington or went to varsity in these states (apologies to Michael Conforto and Jake Lamb). That ought to make him one of many fan favorites.

(2) Alonso vs. (7) Rodríguez

Before struggling a bone bruise and sprained left wrist when he was hit by a Charlie Morton pitch on June 7, the 28-year-old Alonso was setting a 57-homer tempo. In putting him on the IL, the Mets introduced, “A typical return to play for this type of injury is approximately 3–4 weeks,” however Alonso spent simply the minimal 10 days sidelined. He’s homered 4 occasions since returning and is at the moment tied with Betts for second within the NL in homers, however has hit simply .147/.267/.347 because the damage whereas producing a median exit velocity of 87 mph, with an 7.7% barrel price. All of which is to say that he might not be 100%, which is a disgrace, as a result of a wholesome Alonso is as completely constructed for this competitors as any participant within the majors. One factor to notice is that the place Mets bench coach Dave Jauss was a giant a part of Alonso’s success as his pitcher within the final two Derbies, this time round Mike Friedlein, Alonso’s journey ball coach from when he was a Tampa teenager, might be throwing to him.

At 22, Rodríguez is the youngest participant for the second 12 months in a row. His season up to now hasn’t been as much as the extent of his stellar rookie marketing campaign, although the drop-off isn’t as large as his 51-point drop in wOBA suggests. His exit velocity is 0.8 mph greater and his Best Speed exit velo — the common of his prime 50% of batted balls, a greater indictor of efficiency — has improved as nicely (from 103.7 mph to 104.1). That stated, he’s not barreling or pulling the ball as typically, he’s hitting it on the bottom extra, and his most exit velocity has fallen from 117.2 mph to 115.5. His common dwelling run distance is the bottom within the discipline, and he has the best share of homers projected for lower than 400 ft (61.5%), although his ballpark could also be in charge, as he’s averaging eight ft fewer on his dwelling homers (390 ft vs. 398). Still, it’s clear from final 12 months that he is aware of what he’s doing on this format, and never arduous to think about the T-Mobile crowd giving him a raise.

(3) Betts vs. (6) Guerrero

The 30-year-old Betts is the oldest and most completed participant on this discipline, the profession chief in homers (239), the one former MVP, and already a probable Hall of Famer (he’s 14th in JAWS amongst proper fielders, forward of Tony Gwynn, Ichiro Suzuki, Dave Winfield, and the elder Vladimir Guerrero). At 5-foot-9, 180 kilos, he doesn’t appear like a house run hitter, however after setting a profession excessive with 35 final 12 months, he’s on tempo for 47 this 12 months, and simply three leadoff homers away from tying the single-season file of 13. He’s not a lot of a distance man; simply two of his profession homers have reached the magic 440-foot mark, and half his homers this 12 months had projected distances below 400 ft, a share greater than all however Rodríguez.

The 24-year-old Guerrero, then again, is a distance man. Sixteen of his 117 profession homers (13.7%) have been 440-footers or longer, edging Alonso (13.3%) for the best price of this group. Meanwhile, Guerrero’s 409-foot common for homers is three ft farther than any of the others, and he has the bottom share of sub-400 foot homers of the group this 12 months (30.8%). Like Rodríguez, he isn’t having a giant season with the bat, however he’s hitting the ball a lot tougher than his slash stats counsel; his .547 xSLG is 104 factors greater than his SLG. In different phrases, he brings the thunder. Of the decrease seeds, he’s received the most effective shot at winding up within the finals.

(4) García vs. (5) Arozarena

Not solely does this matchup pit a pair of Cuban gamers in opposition to one another, however each García and Arozarena have been teammates within the Cardinals’ minor league chain earlier than being traded away. They stay shut pals, and García is godfather to Arozarena’s daughter. If the top-seeded Robert advances out of the primary spherical to face the winner right here, that semifinals matchup may even be an all-Cuban affair.

The 30-year-old García leads the group when it comes to each barrel price and common exit velocity on fly balls. His 4 homers of at the very least 440 ft places him within the higher half right here, although be aware that whereas the 28-year-old Arozarena has none, his common distance is only one foot lower than that of his pal. Though not a very prolific dwelling run hitter — he’s topped out at 20 in his two full seasons — Arozarena has been hitting the ball a lot tougher this 12 months, together with his barrel price and different Statcast numbers profession highs. And as his postseason resumé and star flip for Team Mexico within the World Baseball Classic have proven, he’s a participant who completely thrives within the highlight. That may very well be a giant assist on this contest.

If you’ve learn this far, you in all probability need some predictions, and whereas I’m no knowledgeable in prognostication, my monitor file since becoming a member of the FanGraphs workers consists of the Harper and Alonso wins in 2018-19 — the latter over Guerrero within the finals, even (not that I used to be going too far out on a limb both time). I haven’t completed as nicely lately, nonetheless, and whereas my impulse is to choose Alonso based mostly on his profession resumé, as a substitute I’m going with Guerrero over Robert within the finals. More than something, I’m hopeful that regardless of the relative lack of star energy, this contest will present thrills on the extent of current Derbies.