2023 Trade Value: Nos. 41 – 50

As is custom at FanGraphs, we’re utilizing the lead-up to the commerce deadline to take inventory of the highest 50 gamers in baseball by commerce worth. For a extra detailed introduction to this 12 months’s train, in addition to a have a look at the gamers who fell simply in need of the highest 50, you should definitely learn the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which might be discovered within the widget above.

For these of you who’ve been studying the Trade Value Series the previous few seasons, the format ought to look acquainted. For each participant, you’ll see a desk with the participant’s projected five-year WAR from 2024-2028, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The desk may even embody the participant’s assured cash, if any, the 12 months by means of which their workforce has contractual management of them, final 12 months’s rank (if relevant), after which projections, contract standing, and age for every particular person season by means of 2028 (if the participant is below contract or workforce management for these seasons). Last 12 months’s rank features a hyperlink to the related 2022 put up. Thanks are as a result of Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the underside of the web page, there’s a grid displaying the entire gamers who’ve been ranked up thus far.

One observe on the rankings: Particularly on the backside of the record, there isn’t quite a lot of room between the gamers. The ordinal rankings clearly matter, and we put them there for a cause, however there isn’t a lot of a niche between, say, the Thirty ninth-ranked participant and the sixtieth. The magnitude of the variations on this a part of the record is sort of small. Several of the parents I talked to would possibly choose a participant within the honorable mentions part to 1 on the again finish of the record, or vice versa. I feel the broad strokes are right, and that is my opinion of the most effective order, however with so many gamers carrying roughly equal worth, disagreements abounded.

With that out of the way in which, let’s get to the primary batch of gamers.

Oh boy, this one was robust for me. I have a look at my previous work yearly to attempt to establish holes in my course of, and I’ve constantly disregarded gamers who haven’t but debuted within the majors. That’s largely for an excellent cause: I don’t suppose they’re completely in step with the spirit of this train. Valuations differ wildly from workforce to workforce, and the perfect prospects usually get traded for stars, not because the spotlight of the deal in their very own proper. But it didn’t fairly sit proper with me, and when Meg recommended Wood for the tail finish of the record this 12 months, one thing clicked.

For probably the most half, this record is about buying and selling for gamers who’re going to assist your workforce now and sooner or later, with each side being essential. It’s nonetheless about that – you’re not going to see 18-year-old prospects within the low minors on right here regardless of how huge the hype will get. But Wood has a spectacular mixture of expertise and proximity to the majors that makes him match the final idea of those rankings sufficient that I’m throwing him on right here as a signpost.

What is he a signpost of? I feel there’s an excellent probability that Wood is a fixture on the prime of commerce worth lists within the subsequent few years. It’s not a lock – he’d be larger up if it had been – however when you’re searching for the following participant who might need an Elly De La Cruz-like rise, Wood matches the final silhouette. That’s true bodily – he’s 6-foot-7 and he’s quick – but it surely additionally matches by way of having loud instruments and a very good really feel for the sport.

This time subsequent 12 months, Wood will possible be in Triple-A, however I don’t suppose a meteoric main league rise is out of the query given how effectively he’s dealt with the minors up to now. The service time estimate up above displays a call-up in the midst of subsequent season, although clearly it’s only a guess. There is, after all, some probability that he doesn’t pan out, and the chances that he’s pretty much as good as De La Cruz (or Corbin Carroll, or any variety of present phenoms) are undoubtedly lower than 50% in my eyes. But when you’re questioning who the following capital-d Dude is gonna be, Wood is my finest guess. Would the Nats commerce him for anybody on this vary? No means. But he’s ranked fiftieth as a reminder that prospects in all probability belong someplace on the record, even when it may be difficult to determine precisely the place.

Jung’s worth has pin-balled wildly over the previous few years. He was a prime prospect coming into final season, and the Rangers cleared a spot for him, however he missed the primary half of the 12 months because of a torn labrum in his left shoulder. He struggled upon his return (hardly uncommon after a significant surgical procedure) and got here into 2023 with out fairly the identical hype that accompanied his earlier marketing campaign. Naturally, he lit the league on hearth straight away, although a droop within the second half of June introduced his numbers again all the way down to earth.

Jung’s sport is constructed round uncooked energy, and he appears to be like like a perennial 30-homer man when wholesome. He’s an above-average defender at third base as well. His greatest weak point is a propensity to chase, which results in a worrisome variety of strikeouts. It’s attributable as a lot to strike zone judgment as it’s to method; Jung isn’t significantly aggressive over the center of the plate, however he swings too typically at breaking balls under the zone.

That form of profile tends to work out most of the time; power-and-defense third basemen can put up precious seasons with out enormous on-base numbers, and Jung’s plate self-discipline is extra worrisome than unfixable. His minor league observe file is a mark in his favor, too. The greatest threat right here is harm, and it’s a significant concern at this level. Jung missed half of 2021 with a foot harm, then half of 2022 with the aforementioned shoulder problem. That’s two extra main accidents than you’d hope for. Without that historical past, Jung would end larger right here, however threat aversion issues if you’re contemplating buying and selling a number of prospects for one participant.

Hayes has been the apple of my eye for a very long time, however I’m lastly beginning to shake off the spell. He has so much going for him – he’s the most effective defensive third baseman in baseball, he makes constant, loud contact, and he’s below contract for a very long time at a low charge. There’s only one drawback: All that loud contact goes straight into the bottom, and the probabilities of that fixing itself look slim at this level.

Hayes is a generational defender, however that may solely get you up to now. He put up a 3-WAR season final 12 months with an 88 wRC+, however that’s just about his ceiling until he can get himself sorted out on the plate. Even as he’s began to raise the ball extra steadily this 12 months, his hardest contact nonetheless comes on grounders, and there’s simply no offense available that means.

If I had been a GM, I’d be calling the Pirates about Hayes as a result of an adjustment on the plate might flip him into peak Josh Donaldson in a heartbeat. But rationally, I’ve to confess {that a} sudden transformation appears more and more unlikely. You can solely be a below-average hitter for thus lengthy earlier than potential stops mattering and (lack of) manufacturing takes over. I hope I’m fallacious about Hayes’ trajectory, however at this level he appears to be like extra like a job participant on a beautiful deal than a future famous person.

While we’re on the subject of gamers I like to an irrational diploma, Nootbaar is the brand new prime of the record. He has a persistence and energy ability set, constantly posting double-digit stroll charges all through his professional profession whereas producing Eightieth-percentile most exit velocities in his time with the massive league membership. He’s a plus outfielder who can play all three positions, and he even has a powerful throwing arm. In quite a lot of methods, he’s all the great issues in regards to the varied Cardinals outfielders of current classic rolled into one.

With all these good issues out of the way in which, let’s get to some negatives. He hit far too many grounders within the minors, an inclination that’s rearing its head once more this 12 months. He’s missed time with harm in every of the final two seasons. He’s too passive on the plate; although he by no means chases, he will get himself into unhealthy counts because of a low swing charge over the center of the zone, and he has sufficient swing-and-miss that he finally ends up with a pedestrian strikeout charge regardless of hardly ever swinging at unhealthy pitches.

For me, the overall bundle works out to a borderline All-Star with a ton of workforce management remaining. For a few of the folks I talked to, each internally and on the workforce facet, he’s extra of a mean participant (with harm threat as well). He’s received promise, little question, however I heard loads of suggestions that the glass was half empty.

Me? I’m a glass half full man, a minimum of on the subject of Nootbaar. I like betting on gamers with Nootbaar’s ability set and drive to enhance, and even in a down 12 months, he’s on tempo for a 3.5-WAR season. Seems like a precious commerce chip to me.

Steer doesn’t have a defensive dwelling. He has bounced round between first, third, and left this 12 months, and he’s in all probability barely under common in any respect three. As awkward as he appears to be like within the subject, although, he’s a pure on the plate. He combines above-average energy with a superb sense of the strike zone; I see years of double-digit stroll charges in his future, and he doesn’t strike out very a lot, which makes his offensive flooring very excessive certainly.

In the long term, Steer’s improvement would possibly finest be served by discovering him an on a regular basis spot, however his versatility has already paid off for the Reds as they’ve shuffled by means of lineups amid promotions and accidents. That can be a bonus for any workforce trying to commerce for him, too; it’s so much simpler to assemble a lineup when certainly one of your prime hitters isn’t 1B/DH solely, even when they aren’t a defensive whiz.

If you’re searching for a comparability from current baseball, consider Kris Bryant on the Cubs with the amount turned down a bit. I don’t suppose Steer will common a 140 wRC+, and I don’t suppose he’ll be above common at any defensive place, however that model of Bryant was so good that even 80% of him can be a perennial All-Star candidate. That’s the vibe I get from Steer.

Does your workforce want a dependable starter? Of course it does. This is baseball we’re speaking about; each workforce wants extra pitching on a regular basis. Ryan guarantees to ship simply that – frequent and dependable pitching – at a discount charge for years to come back. His huge league observe file is now lengthy sufficient that I’m prepared to imagine his fastball-first method will work; it’s a ok pitch, and his new splitter enhances it effectively sufficient, that he doesn’t want to alter something to be sustainably strong.

The huge threat with buying and selling for a pitcher is that they could get damage. One season of an ace sounds so much worse than two and a half seasons, however a severe harm might preserve them on the shelf for about that lengthy. As a commerce chip, Ryan is comparatively resistant to that threat, as a result of he’ll be round for a very long time. He isn’t as a result of hit free company till after the 2027 season, which implies a misplaced 12 months gained’t torpedo his whole time with a workforce.

What provides Ryan the sting over the crop of rookie starters on the record of honorable mentions? It’s the knowledge, roughly. Pitchers all the time have some probability of harm, however in addition they have a probability of taking a leap ahead into stardom. Ryan marries that potential leap with a excessive flooring; the mixture of that and the period of time you may have him in your workforce makes him extra precious than you would possibly suppose.

I’m a sucker for nice up-the-middle defenders. Luckily for Mullins, so are the overwhelming majority of huge league GMs. Mullins is sturdy and he’s a 70 defender in middle subject. Even if he couldn’t hit in any respect, he’d be a surefire starter for many groups in baseball primarily based on these two components alone. That makes for a lofty flooring; it’s onerous to think about a world the place a workforce buying and selling for Mullins does worse than a rock-solid on a regular basis participant.

Mullins has been a lot better than that over the previous three years, and I wouldn’t wager on it altering anytime quickly. He will get on base and hits a ton of doubles, making him a super top-of-the-order bat. He’s below contract for 2 extra years, which is about the one draw back value mentioning. That’s not even a transparent draw back, although; at that time, Mullins will likely be getting into his age-31 season, an age when defensive worth typically declines.

The worth proposition right here is absolutely clear: Trade for an important defender who will possible hit effectively, for just a few key years, beginning proper now. After that, wipe your palms clear and transfer on. I thought-about shifting Mullins up the record much more regardless of the restricted service time, and on the finish of the day, solely 4 hitters in Mullins’s future free company class (the 2025-26 offseason) positioned forward of him on the record. You may not consider him as a star, however this stage of protection coupled with above-average hitting is a tremendously precious mixture.

Whoa there, maintain up Cardinals followers — don’t go getting out the pitchforks after that ZiPS projection. ZiPS isn’t in love with Walker, however the numbers above are a results of the system projecting him as a completely abysmal defender for years to come back. Switch him to DH and his projection would enhance by an mixture six wins. It’s inconceivable that Walker would truly be that unhealthy defensively; he’ll both enhance, or he’ll transfer to first base or DH.

His defensive points are an actual unfavorable, however his offensive profile continues to be stuffed with upside. We’re speaking a couple of potential ultra-premium energy bat, the form of game-changing hitter who doesn’t develop on timber. Even in a reasonably lackluster rookie season – means, means too many grounders have put a lid on his batting line – his outrageous energy stands out. He’s completely crushing the ball when he makes contact and hasn’t confirmed simply exploitable regardless of his Stretch Armstrong body. We’re speaking a couple of premier energy hitter for years to come back, one with Giancarlo Stanton upside.

That upside isn’t assured, which is why Walker doesn’t place larger on the record. If he finally ends up as merely an excellent hitter as an alternative of an important one, his worth will take an enormous hit because of the sheer mass of strong hitters with out defensive houses. That’s the chance. The reward is pretty apparent, although: You would possibly find yourself with the following incarnation of Aaron Judge (minus the flexibility to moonlight in middle). A variety of groups would take that gamble.

If you need Elly De La Cruz however can’t have him, what in regards to the closest attainable factor? Cruz has related upside as an 80-power/80-speed shortstop, solely with extra pink flags thrown in. His strikeout charge was sufficient to carry him again from greatness in 2022, whereas a brutal leg fracture early this season has restricted him to simply 9 video games up to now. He’s solely racked up 410 huge league plate appearances, which implies we nonetheless have so much to find out about whether or not somebody together with his colossal body could make sufficient contact and keep wholesome sufficient to appreciate his sky-high potential.

Even with these dangers, I feel quite a lot of groups can be calling if the Pirates made Cruz out there. The upside has all the time been mammoth, but it surely’s much more obvious now that De La Cruz is right here to offer a proof of idea. This ability set can work, and it will probably work extremely effectively. I’m not saying that it wasn’t attainable earlier than, however now it’s not even up for debate.

In a 12 months, Cruz will both be a way more precious or a lot much less precious commerce chip. At some level, potential wants to show into manufacturing, or the chances of issues understanding decline precipitously. That makes Cruz’s place on the record form of foolish – the Pirates aren’t going to commerce him anytime quickly, which makes this purely theoretical. This complete record is an train in principle, although, and I feel that this valuation correctly weighs the long run paths Cruz would possibly take.

I misplaced depend of the quantity of people that identified Greene’s fastball form throughout my cross-checking. For a man who lives round 100 mph on the radar gun, his heater is exceedingly hittable. The whole bundle works out, although, as a result of his slider is sensational. He’ll possible all the time stroll just a few too many batters, however so long as he has that nasty breaking ball, I feel he’ll pile up sufficient strikeouts to make the entire thing work.

I feel Greene is likely one of the gamers with the best disconnect between the baseball trade consensus and what most people thinks. Six reasonably priced years of a 23-year-old pitcher with this sort of stuff? It feels like a bonanza. Meanwhile, a lot of folks I talked to questioned whether or not he belonged on this record in any respect. That’s how critically expertise evaluators are taking Greene’s perceived fastball deficiency.

I’m nearer to the folks than the elites on this one. I get it: Greene isn’t a blow-’em-away-high pitcher, and he would possibly by no means change into one. But I like how effectively he’s tailored to life on the main league stage, utilizing his fastball as a complementary software moderately than sticking with it whereas it received bludgeoned. Greene is younger sufficient that the cement isn’t but dry on his sport; it’s extra essential that he has the instruments to enhance than that he’s a completed product now. The solely cause I didn’t push him larger on the record is a hip harm that feels like it can maintain him out by means of August.