2024 Prospect Week Chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe! Thank you for testing all of our Prospect Week work for the location, together with this chat.

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get proper into it.

Andrew: You’re a bit decrease on Colt Emerson than quite a lot of the {industry} it appears. What does he want to point out to stand up into that ~50 vary? And ideas on Jeter Martinez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Emerson quite a bit, ideally he performs just a little higher versus belt-high fastballs going ahead. Jeter is an 18-year-old Mexican DSL arm sitting 92-93 touching higher than that, slider will flash. Long-term dev venture, final I noticed arm motion was tremendous lengthy

Jesse: Do the Mets have a high farm system after consuming all that cash for prospects in the course of the commerce deadline final 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: More like tier 2 behind Cubs, BoSox

Free Kyle Manzardo: What’s the meat with Kyle Manzardo, man

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sufficient beef, as in energy, to be a 2 annual WAR performer at 1B. More a forty five sort

Angelus Novus: Why is Hollday (70) graded increased than pre-2023 Gunnar/Carroll (65s)? Who do you are taking over the following decade, from that group?

Eric A Longenhagen: Better perceived probability to remain at SS than I had of Gunnar at that time. Tough to not take Gunnar of these three on this second.

JDP’s greatest fan: What’s holding again JDP from being a high 100 prospect? Just must see a bit extra energy in recreation?

Eric A Longenhagen: Underlying swing and miss was worse than his floor Ok%, in a nook OF spot I need you to show the hit/energy combo is actual greater than he has up to now, drive my hand. Pretty mediocre really feel for the barrel, gonna have gigantic energy. There’s nonetheless a very good probability he pops, simply hasn’t but.

Morgan (NY): Which prospects at the moment ranked under 75 have the very best probability to enter the highest 25 subsequent season?

Eric A Longenhagen: The youngsters in that vary

Jon Kay: Do chats depend as feedback? No actual query, I recognize what you do. Hopefully you may stuff Grant Brisbee in a locker.

Eric A Longenhagen: lol a few of them do have a remark part vibe

Ben Schneider: Hi Eric, thanks for all the nice work. After a powerful 12 months on the plate, why do you suppose Connor Norby will not be a 50 FV participant, and the way does he match on the Orioles’ roster?

Eric A Longenhagen: LF for me, not sufficient offense to be a 50 there. Either he or Mountcastle wants to maneuver for him to play, in all probability.

Chris: How far was Jose Fleury out of your choose to click on subsequent 12 months ?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s tremendous bizarre. This is just a little Astros righty with an uphill low-90s fastball, he throws a ton of actually glorious changeups and cutters, fairly even pitch combine. I don’t suppose it’ll work in a manner that he’ll ever be on the Top 100, he solely sits like 91 mph, however he must be a extremely misleading lengthy reliever

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe like Yusmeiro Petit sort?

Roman: What are your ideas on some Zips100 prospects that didn’t make your checklist? I noticed Jagger Haynes at #99 and I don’t suppose he’s top15 in SD’s system

Eric A Longenhagen: Jagger might be on the Another 10 Names to Know piece. Prototypical body, 91-96 throughout an entire begin, above avg curveball, ill-timed TJ price him quite a lot of time. Needs to point out he can maintain that velo throughout precise SP innings and dev a 3rd pitch

Jon Kay: I like to consider your scores for FV as useful regular distributions for outcomes and assume that the worth you choose is the probably. Is there a manner that you could possibly add SD in your evalus as a manner of measuring ground and celling? This man performs nice CF protection so it limits is ground and subsequently I put a 55 FV on it however the SD has extra skewness? Or is that this simply dressing up what’s a qualitative course of with opinion values to show it quantitive?

Eric A Longenhagen: One of the previous prospect writers on the website tried to do a model of this and folks felt it was tremendous complicated to have ground/possible/ceiling grades. Grade+Variance is just a little simpler and doesn’t really feel such as you’re abdicating making an precise name

eye take a look at appreciator: noticed an fascinating quote from chris antonetti saying good issues about estevan florial. virtually each prospecter and even yankees homers had left him for useless (myself included). something change in his skillset or is antonetti simply wishcasting

Eric A Longenhagen: Swing modified final 12 months, huge time lefty energy hitting his bodily prime. I actually appreciated him as a buy-low for them, has what they want in energy. Could catch lightning in a bottle for a few years whereas he’s peaking like this. Don’t suppose he’s instantly a star, he’s nonetheless very flawed with Ok’s, however might have Raley/Siri run right here. He isn’t prospect eligible anymore, hasn’t been since 2022.

Ryan: Could groups worth prospects from Wake Forest much less as a result of they assume they’ve already matched out their expertise with the pitching lab?

Eric A Longenhagen: I dunno if “value less” is precisely proper however “project less” in all probability could be.

Lasres: did you neglect Robby Snelling existed when doing the highest 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: pitch efficiency is fairly generic, fastball velo is under MLB common, looks like one other Ryan Weathersesque PR marketing campaign is engaged on hard-blinking on-line of us

Too Many Mooks: Eric, actually cherished the ‘How’s my Driving?’ piece. I hope you are able to do a model of it yearly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Hope to do a pair variations of it all through every year, groups lists, draft ranks, and so on. gracias

dave: How a lot of a unfavourable impact has the elimination of short-season leagues had on participant growth? What proportion of groups would select to have a short-season crew, if allowed?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel it harms the extent of play in A-ball as a result of guys who wouldn’t have climbed via quick season find yourself there. It gives fewer gamers alternative to develop however possibly doesn’t damage any particular person’s dev? I feel the money wealthy groups would like to have extra associates, particularly ones who know they’re good at dev. Percentage clever…

Eric A Longenhagen: lol going via a crew guidelines in my head, would BOS pay for an additional affiliate at this level? jeepers

Eric A Longenhagen: in all probability like half the groups? There are definnitely folks in baseball who nonetheless suppose there are too many minor leaguers, and MLB has econ incentive to outsource as a lot of dev as potential to varsity baseball. I wager we see additional discount and restructuring subsequent CBA

Luke: Curious what occurred with Ben Brown (high 50 for you finish of season)? Are you viewing his 2nd half command points as a long run drawback?

Eric A Longenhagen: Enough that it limits his position, yeah. Not sufficient that it makes him unhealthy.

wheelhouse: Do a selected org’s particular flaws ever influence your evaluation of a person prospect? I have a look at studies of what Spencer Jones wants to enhance upon to achieve his ceiling and see contact charges, breaking/offspeed recognition, and floor balls, and people flaws have seemingly been endemic within the yankees’ org for half a decade now with no success tales.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not actually. You get into the grey space between scouting and predicting if you happen to do it that manner. It would really feel bizarre to have Grade X on a draft prospect, then both increase or decrease relying on the org that drafts him. I feel most FG readers who care about prospects for the needs of fantasy baseball are sensible sufficient to make these sorts of changes themselves as they parse the impartial work.

Oliver: If not for the notion that he was a powerful decide to attend school, the place would Cooper Pratt have slotted within the final draft. The Brewers landed a bunch of thrilling prospects forward of him however he appears to have a comparable ceiling to the fellows taken forward of him.

Eric A Longenhagen: I in all probability had hello ma little too excessive. He received $1.3 million, which is late 2nd spherical cash. He’s in all probability extra early/mid second spherical in a standard draft, was late 2 in a loaded one

NB: Eric and Tess, Great work once more on Prospect Week!  I subscribe to Fangraphs and different publications as a result of I really like getting a variety of opinions.  I really feel such as you guys are likely to charge youthful worldwide signees increased than others whereas rating current MLB draftees just a little decrease.  I’m questioning about how a lot you want Brock Wilken, Aiden Miller, and Dillon Head, 3 draftees who missed your Top 100.  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: All three had been picks to click on, we like them quite a bit. Head put actually robust contact knowledge on paper in professional ball. Miller did too, however I’m just a little suss of his swing, which is like Carter Kieboom/Keston Hiura/Jeter Downs in the best way his palms loop. Let’s see how he does in opposition to huge velo. Wilken, you realize the report. I need 1B/3B varieties to have nearer proximity to the massive league earlier than I worth them as a 50. The youngsters’ ceilings are a lot greater than Wilken-types (Walcott, and so on) that regardless that they’re lower-prob gamers I wwant to worth to chance that they’re unicorn gamers forward of men like Wilken until they’re performing for some time at AA/AAA

Bob: You are the low guys on Tyler Black. What do you see conserving him from being a high 100 sort? Lack of a defensive residence? Not sufficient bat for questionable protection?

Eric A Longenhagen: Plenty of these questions are simply going to be answered with the following piece. I don’t consider in his hit device as a lot because the others, I assume. Also trying like a 3B/1B with 40 energy. Can you discover me a man with that profile within the bigs? Lamonte Wade? Is Wade somebody you’d 50? He’s high quality however not *that* good.

Tim: Do you suppose Colton Cowser is something greater than a platoon man?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t

Keith: Would Drew Thorpe be a strong comp for Alonzo Treadwell? Do you’re feeling he may very well be elite with a velo bump?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, very diff fastball profiles. Another man whose title is on this subsequent piece. Vert FB/CRV combo, sitting 92 at UCLA, might use stride alteration to shallow out his FB angle. A breakout choose as a result of Houston tends to be good at this.

Ralph: If Dominguez didn’t tear his UCL, the place would he have slotted?

Eric A Longenhagen: Closer to fiftieth general

birds birds birds: Long in the past, I learn someplace that the step from A to AA was the largest soar for a minor leaguer to make.  Agree?

Eric A Longenhagen: Triple-A to huge leagues. WIthin the confines of the minors it’s in all probability High-A to Double-A, sure.

Mike Cameron Maybin: Any hope to supply for Luciano being a productive common this 12 months? Obviously the ability’s there and he’s received time, however the Ok charge is… woof. The protection wasn’t stellar both, and early studies are that he’s placed on weight coming into camp. Continued contact points and a transfer to a nook of spot feels fairly bleak, proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty bleak, imo. 64% contact charge is under any current MLB SS, not to mention OF if he has to maneuver. Still has big juice, although.

unhappy Rangers fan: What is your outlook on Leiter now? is there an opportunity he turns into entrance finish and even mid-rotation starter? is it a problem of form of pitches, command, management or mixture of all?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fastball continues to be actually good, has zero really feel for location. Kinda in Mac Gore limbo proper now, nonetheless suppose Jack might be a good huge leaguer however in all probability an RP at this level. This is his 40-man eval 12 months so we would see TEX make a transfer in that regard

Your title: Love and recognize all of the content material. Just out of curiosity, when do you guys change a prospects place? You have Caminero as a RFer regardless that he hasnt performed there within the majors or minors, however you have got Shaw as 2B regardless that he’s taking reps at 3B and fangraphs indicated that’s the place he has the clearest path to the majors.

Eric A Longenhagen: Totally our projection, after I suppose it’s the best name and am tooling round within the guts of The Board, I alter it

Jason: What occurred to the Just Missed article?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s extra a “100 more names to know” article in order you may think about, it’s fairly lengthy and is being edited.

Chris: How shut was Lazaro montes to being 50’d? What does he want to point out with the intention to be within the high 100 a 12 months from now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Another man within the upcoming article. Gigantic child with big current uncooked, suppose the size in his swing makes him dangerous. Wanna see him regulate to fastballs round his palms.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Can science clarify why a number of projection techniques (ZiPS and Steamer) suppose Coby Mayo will play above common 3B protection? I’d be thrilled, however these conclusions are the direct reverse of what prospect writers say. I feel Longenhagen/Taruskin have projected him at RF since final 12 months.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, evaluating minor league protection visually (when you may really do it completely) provides you with manner higher outcomes than a proj system goes to. MAybe proprietary minor league kinatrax and statcast sort stuff might aid you mannequin protection if you happen to had entry to that knowledge.

Eddie: When Spencer Jones was as outdated as Jasson Dominguez is correct now he had a sub .800 OPS within the SEC. Are we being too harsh on Dominguez nonetheless? Feel like there’s quite a lot of upwards projection for Spencer and downwards for Jasson after they each don’t have a ton of ABs per say

Eric A Longenhagen: If I confirmed you all of Jasson’s swings in an excellent tight edit proper on high of each other, you’d see how little barrel management there may be. Doesn’t imply I feel he’s unhealthy, simply suppose the long-term ceiling on Spenny is so huge that he wanted to be elevated

Eric A Longenhagen: Age variations and variations in projection usually go hand in hand, however not so far as these two are involved. Jasson’s physique is maxed, the cement is dry. Jones’ will not be.

Jordash: Is it simply me, or do you typically confuse Jordan Westburg and Paul Westerberg, lead singer of the Replacements?

Eric A Longenhagen: I confused John Henry and Patrick Henry on a historical past take a look at in highschool and my instructor informed me my priorities had been effed

Jordash: Jordan Westburg will get overshadowed within the robust Orioles system. Do you suppose he might be an on a regular basis man by 12 months’s finish?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve extra a forty five on him as a result of the protection is kinda bleh. Might be out-talented by the others. Still a very good participant, simply ideally need him to have a lefty/protection caddy. Think J Ortiz was extra an omnisituational man, Westy has extra juice tho.

Refugee: For Eric/Tess: 1. How do you employ plate self-discipline and batted ball knowledge to paint your scouting? 2. Where are you getting that knowledge from? I can solely discover it publicly out there on the AAA degree.

Eric A Longenhagen: We are sourcing milb-wide knowledge from crew contacts. I’m taking a look at chase, chase relative to uncooked swing%, and for the primary time this offseason chase relative to 2-strike chase%. The chase knowledge is illuminating greater than in-person appears, batted ball/contact stuff serves to verify the visible scouting report and discover guys we’ve neglected.

Scott: Noticed Solometo will not be on high 100.  What do you must see from him to crack checklist sooner or later?

Eric A Longenhagen: Two or three extra ticks. I feel he’s extra a no. 4/5 than a mid-rotatino man, there aren’t many influence starters who solely sit 91-92.

mason morris: Druw Jones? Why does nobody love him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Looked so out of whack when he was wholesome final 12 months that there’s no manner he hits until his sing adjustments.

JH: Juan Brito was on final 12 months’s model of the Picks to Click and appeared to carry out precisely as anticipated, succeeding in A+ and AA whereas exhibiting the identical mixture of contact, endurance, and just a little pop that appeared to catch your eye final 12 months. Any perception as to why he missed this 12 months’s checklist? Has the scouting report backed up, or had been you projecting a leap ahead whereas his 12 months was extra like treading water?

Eric A Longenhagen: Defense is horrible

Ryan: How tough is it to alter your fastball form? If you’ll be able to change the form, how a lot does it influence your command/management?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably simpler stated than accomplished and is dependent upon the particular person. I’ve seen man merely alter pronation/supination on launch, I’ve seen guys change the best way their wrist is positioned, I’ve seen reworked arm paths and adjustments in stride course which have influence up the physique in such a manner that alters arm and strategy angle. Finding one thing the athlete can do persistently so their management doesn’t completely wash out is a crucial piece of it.

Phil: Do you have got any ideas about David Sandlin? Breslow appears to suppose he may very well be a significant league starter quickly.

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty typical three-quarters arm slot righty with a mid-90s fastball and presently common slider. His changeup’s charge stats from 2023 recommend he must be throwing it extra, and we must always all be seeking to see if Boston tweaks the form/grip of his slider this 12 months. They have two years to develop him earlier than he must be placed on the 40-man.

Keith: Any examples of very profitable pitchers with poor fastball form? How doomed is a pitcher with a “lifeless” fastball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Luzardo, Bibbee, Kirby…numerous guys, you simply need to do different stuff like throw actually onerous.

Phils honk: Is Caba the very best defender you’ve ever seen at that age? Is he essentially the most gifted defensive SS since Ozzie Smith like some say?

Eric A Longenhagen: Slickest infield I’ve seen since Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis

visitor: How do you reconcile conventional scouting versus newer superior metrics approaches like Stuff+? take Sawyer Gibson-Long for instance. he was by no means a excessive pedigree prospect and his fastball based on Fangraphs scouting is a 40 grade. But based on stuff+, his change-up and sinker are two of the best rated pitches within the mannequin, and his quick is above common. His FIP and xERA appear to again up his restricted outcomes. Thank you for the suggestions!

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff+ overvalues guys whose stuff has lateral motion

Get Two, Brute?: Is there any explicit growth challenge with current Pittsburgh graduates you may level to concerning their stalled rebuild? Three pitching prospects misplaced substantial velocity in 2023. And on the place participant aspect, they gave roughly 1500 plate appearances to rookies who put up a collective 0.2 WAR. Is there one thing to level to with their younger gamers struggling a lot?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s a type of backfields that I’m solely on a couple of times a 12 months, and it’s powerful for me to snoop sufficient to get a greater concept of what they’re doing with dev.

Mike S: What occurred to Yiddi Cappe final season?  Is he nonetheless a prospect in your eyes or has he dropped off the map?

Eric A Longenhagen: Blerg, didn’t look viable at SS and never sufficient offensive juice to comfortably profile at 2b solely. I used to be overzealous final 12 months.

David: Farmelo is a shock, tooled up excessive schooler was sort of the outline of him going into the draft and resulting from damage he was barely capable of play within the minors, was curious if there was something extra to might notice about what you noticed throughout instructs? Did he actually stand out that rather more than most each one else?

Eric A Longenhagen: He performed throughout instructs after which throughout Cal League playoffs. Freakish measurement/energy for a youngster if you stand proper subsequent to him, swing continues to be work in progress, loopy energy/velocity combo.

PJ: I used to be stunned to see Payton Martin omitted from the picks to click on checklist. What about him fails to impress you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta reject the premise of this query. Just not sufficient house on P2C to incorporate each single prospect I like, he’s a prospect and might be on the crew checklist. 6ft righty threw lower than 40 innings final 12 months, sitting 95 (present me over 120 innings por favor), onerous mid-80s slider. Good prospect

romorr: If there was a Baltimore Oriole pitching prospect in subsequent years high 100, are you able to give me your two finest guesses? Baumeister and De Leon?

Eric A Longenhagen: nailed it with Baumeister i feel

Eric A Longenhagen: you guys are good at this and mainly guessing the names on this subsequent piece

jakefromboonesfarm: Lots of distance between main rankings of Kjerstad/Cowser, neither of whom blew any doorways off in majors final 12 months.  What separates them a lot in your eval?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kjerstad’s physicality and barrel management > Cowser. Cowser is a extra discerning hitter however doesn’t have almost as a lot bodily expertise. Heston appeared cumbersome and powerful throughout ’22 AFL, appeared tremendous reduce and explosive in 2023, I assumed he hit a special gear.

Jeremy: As a Phillies fan, how nervous ought to I be that Mick Abel doesn’t appear to have improved a lot since he was drafted?

Eric A Longenhagen: A bit of bit. I’m nonetheless betting on his physique and the best way it strikes in a reasonably profound manner. I feel it’s extra about him getting really feel for his lengthy/explsoive physique than them altering what he’s doing.

Reggie: the dodgers appear to have actually accomplished effectively with their most up-to-date DSL crew. Who do you want finest joendry vargas. Quintero or another person?

Eric A Longenhagen: effectively certainly one of them was on the highest 100 and one was a choose to click on

Kate: Surprised to not see Celesten within the “this is what they look like” part of the picks to click on.  Is that merely a results of him simply not moving into video games final 12 months?

Eric A Longenhagen: yep, additionally within the upcoming piece, noticed two video games within the Fall and appeared good on D, rusty on the dish. purely a wait and see how he appears sort, we nonetheless don’t actually *know* something in regards to the hit device with zero professional knowledge and due to how restricted in-person appears had been in 2023

Colton: Prospect week has been superior, thanks for capping it off with this chat. Out of curiosity, how usually do you end up writing up a man that neither you or Tess have seen your self? Just going purely off what different colleagues within the {industry} have on them.

Eric A Longenhagen: by no means ever

Eric A Longenhagen: there are guys who i haven’t seen in particular person however, at worst, I’m doing a ton of movie research and have knowledge to formulate my very own opinion

Abimelec Ortiz: Thoughts on the hitter with the very best title within the minors?  He crushed it final 12 months with Ok enhancements upon promotion, however clearly 1B hurts his list-ability.

Eric A Longenhagen: you nailed it, simply suppose the efficiency is just a little shy of high 15 at 1B as a result of it’s 1B.

Daniel: How huge of swing by way of worth is Austin Wells defensive place?

Eric A Longenhagen: monumental. Jonah Heim and Edward Olivares had the identical wRC+ final 12 months.

Gronch: How would you have got graded Brandon Belt’s energy arising? Obviously the entire package deal, with glorious on-base, above common protection, and playable hit device was sufficient to profile as an above common 1B, however he by no means hit for enormous energy

Eric A Longenhagen: Dayum, you’re hitting me with a throwback. maintain please…

Eric A Longenhagen: I used to be a number of months shy of turning 22

Matt: What are you emotions on Brandon Crawford?  Most folks have him ranked however you didn’t.  

Overall, do you see the Phillies as having a corporation that’s trending in the best course?

Eric A Longenhagen: Justin Crawford (no worries, all of us brainfart) has a full report on the Phils checklist. Just not sufficient energy, no present MLB hitter hits the ball on the bottom as a lot as he does. wants adjustment fairly badly, imo.

Sanford: Mets prospects are quick (Gilbert 5’9″, Jett 5’6″, Acuña 5’8″). Just a coincidence or is that this reflective of some organizational philosophy (clearly not re: peak particularly, however maybe re: instruments/profile/ground/ceiling that shorter prospects are likely to have, if such stuff may even be generalized throughout peak)

Eric A Longenhagen: good catch. I do suppose lever size is a trait groups care about and might need to do with stability of the hit device. The Grizzlies appear to take guys undervalued resulting from lack of size within the NBA, too. Bane, Tillman, Roddy, Brooks, and so on.

Kate: Was just a little stunned to see Luis Morales soar into the Top 100 so early.  Do you suppose he’s a quick mover from right here to the majors?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely not. Prototype pitcher’s physique and elite arm velocity, purely a ceiling-driven embrace.

Tacoby Bellsbury: What’s essentially the most shocking {industry} suggestions you obtained in your high 101 this season?

Eric A Longenhagen: had too few inside jokes

ram: Has there ever been a disparity between your checklist and the ZIPs checklist that has prompted you to return and reevaluate a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, Danny sends me zips a number of days forward so i can double examine some guys. This 12 months it was Danny de Andrade, who I felt snug shifting on from rapidly from a high 100 standpoint, nonetheless a good prospect who’ll be on their crew checklist

Pirates Hurdles: Curious about Termarr’s path, what do you must see from him in 2024 to maneuver him again up the lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tess-driven stuff job there. Mucho energy and raise, may have uncommon 2B pop regardless of flawed hit device. Gonna Ok a ton.

Deputy: Who is the following unheralded Yankee arm that turns into a stud reliever for them in 24?

Eric A Longenhagen: Take your choose of the DSL arms on their checklist, Arias, and so on.

RoadWarriorShaq: What does Chandler Simpson have to do that 12 months to start out making his manner onto prospect lists.  .330 OBP, 50 SB, good CF protection appears extra like a certainty than a chance.

Eric A Longenhagen: Def a crew checklist man already. Top 100? IDK, is Myles Straw figuring out gangbusters?

Walton Dilcox: I’m loopy about this Wyatt Langford, some freaky dominant numbers right here. What retains him out of the #1 spots?

Eric A Longenhagen: Might be a DH

Too Many Mooks: To what proportion of those questions might you simply reply “Read the article, dingus”?

Eric A Longenhagen: The proportion has lowered since we began chatting

Eric A Longenhagen: actually this 12 months it’s in all probability solely like 10%

Spencer: Of the fellows on the highest 100 who’ve but to play within the MLB but, who’s probably to open up on the MLB roster and have a profitable season?

Eric A Longenhagen: I gained’t depend Chourio, both (however it’s in all probability him)…

Eric A Longenhagen: saying Colt Keith can also be kinda dishonest…

Eric A Longenhagen: How about Jairo Iriarte?

J: This is each a real-life and fantasy-driven query. With the evolution of the SP position, I discover it more and more tough to gauge worth.  Just by way of the way you strategy rankings, each worth/slotting, has it affected you and Tess’ valuations? If so, what has it modified?

Eric A Longenhagen: For positive. I’ve flattened their curve, so to talk. Fewer workhorse SPs producing WAR worth through innings quantity, extra innings to go round means extra 40/40+ varieties who work in bulk aid, or who you must get key outs within the center innings. For fantasy I don’t envy you as a result of it’s extra about counting stats than expertise and also you’re additionally gauging crew state of affairs. In the one league I’m in (dynasty sim) I actually solely draft attractive arms when the worth feels too good to cross up, I’m extra on secure performers and paths to alternative than upside more often than not

Eric A Longenhagen: nice query btw

Your Name: Have you heard of or seen Kevin Watson Jr.? Lesser recognized outfield/catching prospect within the low minors of the Angels org. If so, would love any notes you have got

Eric A Longenhagen: Of course, that man’s just like the mayor of the IE. Had a bobblehead evening final 12 months, didn’t he? Lefty-hitting org man with enjoyable defensive versatility.

Billy G: In addition to all of the relocation stuff for the A’s, they’ve actually gotten screwed a bit with the draft lottery. Sixth choose in a draft that had 5 “first overall” varieties in most years. Now fourth in a weak draft. And if I’m studying the CBA accurately, they will’t choose high 10 subsequent 12 months no matter how unhealthy they’re. Even if I stick to them to Vegas, is there any hope?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bro, it’s a tragic state of affairs. The individuals who work for that org within the entrance workplace, dev and scouting, in addition to the gamers themselves, all deserve higher. What should it’s wish to be Tyler Soderstrom or Gelof proper now and know you’re going to spend the following couple of years grinding for its personal sake. It may very well be career-altering for his or her younger gamers to be in such a bizarre, awkward bind like that and try and encourage eacother simply because.

prospect month: Graham Pauley getting reps at 1B and LF–how satisfactory would the glove need to be in these spots for the bat to play as a mean starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe not a mean starter (you’re speaking like fifteenth finest man at LF/1B, that’s a extremely good participant) however undoubtedly higher than their options.

Manny: You’re an enlargement crew and you’ll steal all of the Yankees within the high 100 or all of the RedSox. Which group are you taking?

Eric A Longenhagen: hmmmmmmm BoSox

romorr: Speaking of ZiPS, Fabian was fairly excessive there, however the Ok% was fairly horrid as soon as he received to AA. How many prospects Ok that a lot, that determine it out at that degree? Steep hill to climb, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes and did movie work on his protection, which isn’t CF match for me

camelcase: Sebastian Walcott’s report fascinates me. Extreme energy potential with weak hit device at a premium defensive place. Is this Joey Gallo at shortstop if every part breaks proper?

Eric A Longenhagen: Javy Baez if every part breaks proper. Mark Reynolds is extra center of the road consequence

sliptoad: ideas on brice matthews changing bregman at third? folks on the astros subreddit appear to suppose that’s the long run however primarily based in your picks to click on writeup he appears far too uncooked for that sort of timeline

Eric A Longenhagen: agree with you greater than the redditors. He’s SO uncooked. Super gifted, although. Would anticipate a decrease burn. But hey, George Springer was additionally a gifted mess when he was drafted…

Eric A Longenhagen: so was derek fisher

Thom: Hi Eric: you’ve beforehand talked about that this 12 months’s checklist is shorter resulting from a smaller pool of high-end prospect expertise. Do you see this as non permanent or do you anticipate the high-end prospect expertise pool to stay comparatively small going ahead?

Eric A Longenhagen: Little little bit of each. I feel it is a down 12 months but in addition suppose the post-covid guidelines round rookie eligibility make it simpler to graduate off the lists.

John: Roki Sasaki would rank high 3 if he had been on the checklist?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2-4 vary, yeah

New UK Fan: Thank you for all of the work. Rafaela vs PCA for defence solely?

Eric A Longenhagen: man that’s soooo powerful. Gimme Rafaela as a result of he can play the INF too

Jake: What is your prediction for the following wave in analytics?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s already underway throughout quite a lot of the league, however: quantifying the best way the physique strikes in actual time. Mapping patterns of motion through graph, assessing flexibility through angles of the hips and shoulders and utilizing it each as an eval device and to make MLB changes in-game

Eric A Longenhagen: I additionally marvel what a number of years of the mix will yield by way of the best way these evaluation correlate or not with professional success.

onomatopoeia: No query, simply needed to say prospect week guidelines. There’s a lot glorious content material. I particularly love the Effectively Wild appearances. Thanks for all the onerous work!

Eric A Longenhagen: gracias, it looks like quite a lot of of us take heed to EW

Kate: Not a high 100 guys, however I’ve heard tremendous disparate studies on Ricardo Cabrera.  Some had him as a legit plus runner final 12 months on the complicated and now I’m seeing others reporting that his physique has backed up considerably to the purpose the place he may have to maneuver to 1B ultimately.  Have you gotten any appears at him not too long ago?

Eric A Longenhagen: Super tough have a look at SS, can barely throw the ball to first base precisely. Definitely gonna tumble down the defensive spectrum, hit knowledge is de facto robust.

Billy G: Any notes but on Tzu-Chen Sha?

Eric A Longenhagen: OMG sure, nerd

Eric A Longenhagen: sneaky 90-92, curveball command and depth, changeup appeared fairly good within the fall, too. backend sort

Simon: Hi Eric, Wyatt Langford’s soar over the three guys drafted above him is tremendous fascinating to me. What did he present in these previous few months post-draft that the scouts weren’t seeing? Seems just like the consensus on his “rank” in that class shifted in a single day

Eric A Longenhagen: Turning on the ball with energy manner higher than simply about some other high prospect

Eric A Longenhagen: Absolutely cleansing out velo round his palms, the place Crews Chourio and Cami all can get beat

Walton Dilcox: Can Rodney Green play CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is an OF at Cal. Not for me. Tough profile in a nook, prob not sufficient contact. Love the ability, although.

Snowbird: I’m wondering your ideas on Welbyn Francisca?  You had him as a 70 grade hit in 2023, his debut went effectively, and I heard that he’s now 5’11’’ 185-ish. Any probability he pops?

romorr: I don’t actually suppose Chayce McDermott has accomplished sufficient to be a starter, however there have been some indicators late. Still a MIRP/SIRP for  you? Or do you suppose there may be “more” that might get him a spot within the rotation.

Eric A Longenhagen: of the fellows with aid threat in that 45 FV space he’s the one I feel has the very best probability to iron issues out. he’s so unfastened and lengthy and athletic…gonna be an influence arm of some sort.

h8r: Are dodgers prospects essentially the most overrated (industry-wide) resulting from perceived developmental benefits within the org?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do suppose the attractive orgs get a bump, usually

Misplaced A’s Fan: I learn that Matt Shaw had a 90% z-contact charge and premium EV final season. But his future hit device grade is barely a 50 and future energy is graded as a 55. Did I get unhealthy data on his contact charges or is Fangraphs being conservative on his projections?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m being considerably conservative as a result of his swing is kinda bizarre trying, and i feel the chase will ultimately influence his hit device

Will: Did you take into account together with Yohandy Morales in your “Picks to Click for 2025” article? And if that’s the case, was there a selected motive you’ve soured on him because the 2023 draft? Or was he neglected/there simply wasn’t sufficient house to say him in that article?

Eric A Longenhagen: Was actually excessive on him pre-draft, went later than i assumed, complete lack of ability to drag the ball is considerably regarding so if I needed to choose a motive that’d be it

Walton Dilcox: Is it simply me or did the 2023 class kick ass throughout their professional debuts? College and HS esp up high…I’m loopy about Langford and Jenkins now and even past it looks like a banner draft

Eric A Longenhagen: they kicked ass

j: what goes on into the numerous variations, after they occur, between dash velocity (78th percentile) and run grade (45/40) for guys like volpe? how can we establish candidates to outperform run grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t suppose dash velocity is an effective way to eval velocity. Or somewhat, it’s much less helpful than a participant’s typical run time for my part. Sprint velocity measures velocity of their quickest one-second window of operating. Home-to-first instances incorporate acceleration and lengthy velocity, in addition to a measure of the occasion during which velocity makes the largest distinction (out vs protected at 1B).

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: How usually do you get an opportunity to look at International or Eastern League video games in particular person? Do you have got video sources in lieu of seeing them on the park?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll go residence to PA for per week or two each summer season and base myself out of Catty, get like 10 video games or one thing like that. It’s not good, I’d like to have a second full time author who in a geographically completely different spot than I’m in however FG is a small op. Synergy is an unbelievable device

Narvain: Great work, Eric!  On your EW podcast look you talked about pitchers having the best body being one thing you checked out for prospect analysis.  What is the best physique measurement for a SP these days?  Has it modified in any respect?

Eric A Longenhagen: 6ft3 or so, broad shoulders, flat again tapering all the way down to a excessive waist. low-to-the-ground athletcism with bend, energy, steadiness within the decrease physique, unfastened arm motion

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel groups are extra open to quick king pitchers due to strategy angle issues

TomBruno23: What/Who are you most trying ahead to watching in FL and AZ as soon as the pretend video games get going?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel each Central divisions may very well be quite a lot of enjoyable.

Jonny: If Kevin Parada can’t keep behind the plate, does he nonetheless have worth as a nook OF/IB sort?  Or is his offense not adequate?

Eric A Longenhagen: (cringes) appeared substandard throughout the board final 12 months, my dude

Hal: Is there a prospect archetype you’ve turn into considerably increased or decrease on during the last a number of years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Flawed nook bats when the ability is a 70 or higher

Bob: Lamonte wade is projected to complete w/ 6.7 struggle via finish of crew management. is that not a 50?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, 2 annual WAR (so 12 give or take) is my barometer for a 50

Parv: I’ve seen a number of feedback not too long ago (from each writers and readers) asserting that scouting/prospecting is general rather more correct now than it was even 5 or 10 years in the past, partially resulting from all of this newly out there knowledge within the minors and school. What’s your tackle that? Do you realize anybody who’s tried to investigate this via time to see if we’re figuring out the best prospects earlier or getting extra correct with FV grades?

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh we’re manner higher at this now, each via expertise and entry to studying instruments. I’d like to do retrospective evaluation however you find yourself denigrating your friends, I’m not impartial as a result of i write for one of many pubs value evaluating (i’d hope) and I’ve a lot work to do maintaining with the present goings on. I attempted to some self eval through my How’s My Driving piece final week

Eric A Longenhagen: couple extra, daddy’s battery is dying and his espresso is getting chilly

Colton: Where would Soderstrom have slotted if he hadn’t surpassed rookie eligibility?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d nonetheless stuff him. 70 energy

Eric A Longenhagen: 55 close to Kjerstad

Ryan: What can we anticipate to see from Justin Campbell this 12 months? Thanks on your time.

Eric A Longenhagen: Someone with CLE informed me he’s good to go however I do not know how he’ll look

Andrew: How a lot do you low cost HBP relative to BB for a batter?  Seems like some guys (e.g., Dalton Rushing has been HBP like 8% of the time since his final 12 months at Louisville) have this as a “skill” to a point, however it’s in all probability much less repeatable than BB talent?

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed. Ty France will get hit by so many pitches as a result of he half-swings at pitches in on his palms that he has no enterprise swinging at and his again elbow will get lit up. It’s a constant a part of his recreation however it’s created by a deficiency not a talent.

Scurvy: I would like you to exit on a limb and provides me a intestine prediction for the way Daniel Espino’s profession will prove.

Eric A Longenhagen: Most possible? Brendan McKay’s buddy.

Eric A Longenhagen: I got here residence giddy the final time i noticed him wholesome was among the finest stuff i’ve ever seen in particular person, ever ever. Shoulders, man.

Will: Is DJ Herz nonetheless anticipated to be only a reliever? Or did his efficiency in 2023 give any motive to alter that impression?

Eric A Longenhagen: RP, imo

Eric A Longenhagen: Washington ought to give him each opp to start out, why not?

DH: I used to be a bit stunned to not see Joey Loperfido within the high 100 given his proximity and flexibility. Does he look extra like a forty five, and if that’s the case, why?

Eric A Longenhagen: you have got it gauged proper, contact charges aren’t good however I actually like him, had him stuffed on HOU checklist final 12 months and might be in an analogous spot as a march via crew lists

Nassim Nunez: Whats my ceiling ?

Eric A Longenhagen: slick utility man

Contented O: Are Norby and Cowser sufficient to headline a commerce package deal for Cease? I feel if they will get it accomplished with out shifting Holliday Mayo Kjerstad Westburg Basallo, giddy up!

Eric A Longenhagen: not for me, bro.

Eric A Longenhagen: Not even shut

Kate: How is the final article coming at present completely different from the picks to click on article precisely?  Sounds like at present’s could embrace guys who you don’t anticipate to rise, however are simply outdoors the highest 100 in the intervening time?  Maybe consists of guys anticipated to graduate as effectively?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s extra about guys you wish to learn about proper now for a story motive. It’s not titled effectively within the nav widget, which is all Megan’s fault. 🙂

Tempe, AZ: Easy entry to the ACL, prolonged spring coaching, and the AFL looks like an enormous plus for residing right here.  How does this influence your strategy of evaluating prospects? Does it help you get extra and higher appears at gamers whose groups have complexes in Arizona? And do you’re feeling extra assured in these evals compared to prospects from groups who you would possibly solely see on video or 1-2 per 12 months (like those that prepare in Florida)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes to all, that is my full time job and I’m at a number of hundred video games a 12 months

Travis: Was Zach Thornton at Mets most up-to-date instructs? Saw him quite a bit all through his newbie profession and he at all times comped to a Matt Strahm sort for me, curious to your ideas regardless of him not throwing knowledgeable inning but.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nobody did instructs in FL apart from TB and PIT. I like Thornton, lefty from GCU, upper-80s, unfastened/athletic/projectable physique, breakong ball has form however wants energy…fascinating dev school arm

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, after simply over 2 hrs i’m gonna name it. Thanks to the five hundred of you who’re nonetheless right here. Please take into account a subscription to the location and thanks for all of your sort phrases.