The following article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing have a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame poll. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the collection, use the instrument above; an introduction to JAWS will be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule, see right here. All WAR figures consult with the Baseball-Reference model except in any other case indicated.
The 2024 Hall of Fame election is within the books, with three newcomers — first-year candidates Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer, and holdover Todd Helton — crossing the 75% threshold. It was a little bit of a nailbiter, as Mauer cleared the bar by simply 4 votes whereas Billy Wagner missed by 5, however after simply two candidates had been elected by the writers over the previous three cycles, it’s a welcome crowd of honorees, and it ought to make for a raucous weekend in Cooperstown once they and their households, pals and followers be part of these of Contemporary Baseball Era Committee honoree Jim Leyland for induction into the Hall on July 21.
Beyond the topline outcomes, there’s a lot to chew on, in order promised, right here’s my candidate-by-candidate breakdown of all the slate of 26 candidates.
José Reyes, James Shields (1st yr on the poll, 0.0%)
As Vin Scully preferred to remind viewers, “They also serve who only stand and wait.” According to Baseball Reference, 217 gamers final appeared within the majors in 2017. Just 12 of them (5.5%) lasted lengthy sufficient and had careers substantial sufficient to make it onto this poll. So this bears repeating yearly: There isn’t any disgrace in being shut out on a Hall of Fame poll. A checkbox subsequent to those gamers’ names is the reward for his or her distinctive, spectacular careers, and with yearly that I do that, my appreciation for the endurance, perseverance, and good luck it takes simply to get thus far grows.
Admittedly within the case of Reyes, that sentiment is tempered by greater than a bit given his 2016 suspension for violating the sport’s home violence coverage. Nonetheless, I discovered an awesome deal whereas writing about his profession, and on the very least, I got here to understand that he did a greater job of expressing regret and taking accountability for his actions than quite a few different gamers who’ve been related to such incidents, whether or not by way of suspensions or allegations that predate the interval when MLB might implement such self-discipline. That’s not nothing.
Brandon Phillips (1st, 0.3%), Adrián González (1st, 0.8%), Matt Holliday (1st, 1.0%), Bartolo Colon (1st, 1.3%), José Bautista (1st, 1.6%), Victor Martinez (1st, 1.6%)
Again, there’s no disgrace in going one-and-done on this course of. These guys obtained one to 6 votes, not as a result of some voter really believed they merited a plaque in Cooperstown however as a small courtesy, a gesture of respect or gratitude. When the ballots had been overstuffed a number of years in the past, such gestures drew the ire of these spending an excessive amount of time watching the Ballot Tracker (myself included), however on ballots with extra respiratory room, they’re a little bit of goodwill that I’ve come to understand. This time round, I even thought of doing so myself, mulling a vote for Colon earlier than deciding {that a}) it will compromise the consistency of my stance on PED violations (I haven’t voted for anybody who’s been suspended); and b) the tenth slot on my poll might be put to extra constructive use by way of a pitcher with stronger credentials.
David Wright (1st, 6.2%)
Wright was one other candidate who I thought of for my tenth slot, partly to assist hold him from slipping off the poll. I may need felt a little bit of remorse if he’d missed the minimize, however I used to be fairly positive that he wouldn’t, notably as soon as I noticed The Athletic’s Jayson Stark stumping for him early within the cycle. Wright was roughly on a Hall of Fame path earlier than accidents worn out his profession in his early 30s, however my want record for electing third basemen (Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Graig Nettles, Sal Bando, and Buddy Bell) is already lengthy, and I don’t know that I’d put him forward of any of these gamers given their robust résumés.
Torii Hunter (4th, 7.3%, up 0.4%)
In yearly of his candidacy, Hunter has languished beneath the 5% cutoff previous to the outcomes being introduced, and each time he’s squeaked by way of; this time, his 6.7% public-versus-private differential — 4.6% on these revealed previous to the announcement, 10.8% on the unpublished ones — was the cycle’s second-largest. Maybe he’s going to turn into the middle discipline model of Harold Baines, who someway lasted six ballots with out topping 6.1%, then fell off and was elected by the Today’s Game Era Committee eight years later. Hunter nonetheless hasn’t even replicated his personal first-year share of 9.5%; whereas his mixture of counting stats (2,452 hits, 353 homers, 195 steals, 9 Gold Gloves) might be interesting to a future Era Committee, he’ll should battle for poll house with candidates who bought shares of the vote six or seven instances his peak share.
Francisco Rodríguez (2nd, 7.8, down 3.0%)
If you had been anticipating some form of closer-related coattail impact as Wagner nears election, right here’s proof on the contrary. Only one candidate skilled a bigger drop from 2023 than Rodríguez, who has extra saves than Wagner however trails him in nearly each different significant manner, and just one returning Wagner voter who has printed a poll to date added Ok-Rod.
Mark Buehrle (4th yr, 8.3%, down -2.5%), Andy Pettitte (sixth yr, 13.5%, down 3.5%)
It was not an awesome yr for beginning pitchers on this poll. In truth, I’m wondering if the 89 votes they mixed to obtain (23.1%) is the bottom in fashionable voting historical past, notably with the 2 holdovers shedding floor. After a lot dialogue and experimentation on the subject of how Hall voters ought to deal with pitching requirements, I made a decision to place my cash the place my mouth is with my tenth poll slot by voting for Pettitte – who’s a good distance beneath the S-JAWS customary — for the primary time.
Meanwhile, different voters seem to have strategically dropped certainly one of these workhorse lefties. In truth, six of the eight returning voters who dropped Buehrle after voting for him final yr did so whereas voting for 10 candidates, although solely three of the eight returnees who dropped Pettitte might say the identical; each drew a handful of mentions from voters who stated they’d have been included if they may accomplish that for greater than 10, and I roughly stated the identical about Buehrle in my explainer. With CC Sabathia and Félix Hernández each debuting on the poll subsequent yr, the subject of starters and requirements shall be on the forefront… however the high of the poll shall be a crowded one. Real progress goes to take time.
Bobby Abreu (fifth, 14.8%, down 0.6%)
You in all probability should be one thing of a “large Hall” voter — if attempting to keep up traditionally related ranges of illustration will be stated to be massive Hall — to view Abreu as a robust alternative for Cooperstown within the first place. Thus it shouldn’t come as a shock that of the seven returning voters who dropped Abreu, 5 did so whereas voting for 10 candidates, usually whereas saying they had been eradicating him for strategic functions of their poll explainers. But even when not one of the seven voters who dropped him had achieved so, he nonetheless wouldn’t have cleared 20% for the primary time. He additionally went simply 2-for-103 amongst public voters who included seven or fewer names on their ballots. Sigh.
Jimmy Rollins (third, 14.8%, up 1.9%)
The addition of Rollins’ longtime double play companion Chase Utley produced one thing of a coattail impact, although it was a modest one. Seven returning voters added Rollins after not voting for him final yr, with 4 of these additionally voting for Utley. Meanwhile one Utley voter really dropped Rollins, which, ouch, and the second baseman practically doubled the help of the shortstop, which, double-ouch. And not like Hunter, Rollins didn’t have considerably extra help on unpublished ballots than on printed ones, with only a 0.4% public-versus-private differential.
Omar Vizquel (seventh, 17.7%, down 1.8%)
With the home violence expenses in opposition to him dropped and the lawsuit in opposition to him for sexually harassing an autistic minor league batboy settled out of courtroom, Vizquel mounted one thing of an effort to rehabilitate his picture, making himself out there on Twitter and for any puff items which may blow in his course. Absent from his effort was any try at introspection or accountability (“My conscience is clean and clear that I’m not the kind of person that they are saying about Omar,” he advised USA Today’s Bob Nightengale), so it didn’t precisely work. Vizquel misplaced floor for the fourth straight cycle, although not in as dramatic a vogue as when he fell from 49.1% to 23.9% from 2021 to ’22, producing the biggest drop in fashionable BBWAA voting historical past. Having obtained 26.5% value of help from unpublished ballots in comparison with 11% from these revealed previous to the announcement, his 15.5% public-versus-private differential was by far the biggest of any candidate. That quantity will change as extra ballots are printed post-election, but it surely tells me that the majority voters aren’t captivated with voicing their help for him, and that his candidacy is just about lifeless even when he has sufficient help to stay on the poll.
Chase Utley (1st, 28.8%)
On the one hand, Utley’s last stage of help could seem disappointing provided that he obtained 60% from the primary 30 printed votes, was within the mid-40s on the 160-ballot mark, and was above 40% till the final batches of ballots had been printed. On the opposite hand, in final yr’s post-election Tracker VIP ballot, I predicted he’d get simply 17%, and for as meager as his help was, it was bigger than the first-year shares of Helton (16.5% in 2019) and record-holder Scott Rolen (10.2% in 2018) put collectively. His -24.2% public-versus-private drop (39.3% public, 15.1% non-public) was the biggest of any candidate.
All of which tells us that his supporters have work to do to persuade the remainder of the citizens that he’s worthy. Even provided that he’s wanting the two,000-hit mark — beneath which the BBWAA hasn’t elected a candidate whose profession crossed into within the post-1960 enlargement period — the progress of Andruw Jones and the looming candidacy of Buster Posey might deal that precedent a strong one-two punch within the coming years. Rolen and Helton had been each elected of their sixth yr of eligibility, so I believe one thing like a 2029 election for Utley is feasible.
Manny Ramirez (eighth, 32.5%, down 0.7%), Alex Rodriguez (third, 34.8% down 0.9%)
Timing and nuance matter to some voters, which is why the 2 suspended sluggers aren’t making any actual progress towards 75% whereas the BALCO-implicated Gary Sheffield, whose bat wasn’t fairly their equal, at the least crossed the 60% threshold in his last yr on the poll. At this level neither of those guys have very massive public-versus-private differentials (-4.1% for the previous, -6.1% for the latter), suggesting that they don’t have a subgroup of voters producing some small quantity of momentum of their favor.
Carlos Beltrán (2nd, 57.1%, up 10.6%)
Beltrán was the poll’s greatest gainer among the many returning candidates, and the one one with a double-digit proportion acquire, as at the least a number of the voters who left him off final yr didn’t view his involvement within the Astros’ 2017 digital signal stealing scandal as completely disqualifying. I did discover it notably notable that Tom Verducci — a high-profile PED hardliner who didn’t even add Mike Piazza to his poll till 2016, and who hasn’t voted for Sheffield since at the least ’21 — not solely flipped however included Beltrán on his five-person poll. His -20% public-versus-private drop-off (66.4% to 46.4%) was the third-largest of the cycle, suggesting that not everyone is able to let go of his transgression so quickly, and it could be that there’s a tough cap on his help that might sluggish his progress upward. Still, he has eight years of eligibility remaining, which leaves numerous time for turnover throughout the citizens, in order a supporter I’d view the glass as half-full right here.
Andruw Jones (seventh, 61.6%, up 3.5%)
After three double-digit jumps within the final 4 cycles — together with 16.7% final yr — Jones made solely a modest acquire this yr, which in all probability owes one thing to the visitors. He obtained a pair “more than 10” mentions in poll explainers, and some of his drops by returning voters (together with one by colleague David Laurila) had been from those that included 10 candidates. That stated, I do know of at the least a number of voters who left him off due to his home violence arrest and responsible plea, and it could be that some voters view that as disqualifying. He had the fourth-largest public-versus-private drop-off (-18.4%, by way of 69.4% public and 51% non-public), and notably went simply 2-for-27 on ballots that included 4 or fewer candidates, in comparison with 6-for-27 for Beltrán and Sheffield. I nonetheless suppose he’ll get in by way of the writers’ poll, but it surely’s not going to be the smoothest crusing.
Gary Sheffield (tenth, 63.9%, up 8.9%)
As anticipated, Sheffield had too far to climb and too robust a headwind in opposition to him in his last go-round to achieve 75%; in truth, he bought lower than half of the 20-point acquire that he wanted, and had the second-largest public-versus-private drop-off (-22.3%, by way of 73.5% public and 51.2% non-public). He was entertaining and revealing in his publicity tour, noting that he was known as as a witness to testify in entrance of the BALCO grand jury, not as a offender, and that he known as for commissioner Bud Selig to research PEDs throughout the sport. Unsurprisingly, he couldn’t resist revisiting outdated beefs comparable to his one with former Yankees supervisor Joe Torre concerning the 2004 ALCS, as a result of it’s Festivus daily for a person keen to air his grievances.
Anyone who understands nuance ought to be capable to see the separation between Barry Bonds, for whom we’ve voluminous proof of PED utilization, albeit at a time earlier than MLB had testing and penalties in place, and Sheffield, for whom we’ve a lot much less proof in addition to the aforementioned testimony that he stopped coaching with Bonds and Greg Anderson as soon as he discovered that what he was being given was unlawful. But in late 2022 we noticed the best way that the Hall of Fame’s alternative of Era Committee members assured the burial of Bonds and Clemens to the purpose that they obtained “fewer than four votes” regardless of their statistical superiority. That’s why, regardless of the vocal respect of friends comparable to former teammate Fred McGriff, I’m not wildly optimistic that Sheffield will break by way of by way of that route anytime quickly, though a 63.9% share would usually be a sturdy one to take into the method. Still, I’m keen on reminding people who “never” is a really very long time with regards to the Hall of Fame, and I believe that sometime, Sheffield and his 509 house runs and menacing bat waggle can have their place on a bronze plaque.
Billy Wagner (ninth, 73.8%, up 5.7%)
I used to be braced for this disappointment, noting on the outset of this cycle that solely 14 of the 30 candidates who obtained between 65% and 70% and nonetheless had eligibility remaining had been elected the subsequent yr. Wagner appears to have been braced for it as nicely, forgoing the same old sit-by-the-phone routine suggested by the Hall for candidates who might get the decision they’ve been ready for. “It’s not like I can say that I’m definitely going to be in so I can have friends over [Tuesday] for the announcement and celebrate,” he advised the New York Post. “I can’t do any of that. I will look like a big jackass if I have people over and I don’t get a call.” Instead Wagner spent the afternoon teaching highschool varsity baseball.
Still, I ache for him and any candidate who misses by such a slim margin, and I’m disgusted by one voter ostentatiously dropping Wagner after supporting him in 2023, after which much more ostentatiously writing a column concerning the blowback (which was about extra than simply how he dealt with Wagner). If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Wagner was dropped by solely three public voters, and that he tied Helton for the second-highest price of help (92.3%) from among the many 13 first-time voters. Whether he closes the hole subsequent yr or has to attend for an Era Committee, he’s too shut to not be elected sometime quickly, and I anticipate a yr from now we’ll be celebrating his nice comeback story.
Joe Mauer (1st, 76.1%)
Though he made it by a mere 4 votes, Mauer did turn into simply the third catcher to be elected by the writers on the primary poll, after Johnny Bench (1989) and Ivan Rodriguez (2017, by simply 4 votes as nicely). You know what they name guys who try this?
Hall of Famers.
I get that Mauer’s credentials, for as robust as they had been, had been hardly good provided that he caught simply 921 video games and spent the final 5 years of his profession as a more-or-less league common first baseman. I get that Mauer’s Twins went 0-and-10 within the postseason whereas he slashed a meager .275/.341/.300. He nonetheless had an extended sufficient stretch the place he completely kicked ass as a catcher like few within the sport’s historical past — he’s the one backstop to win a slash-stat Triple Crown, the one one to win three batting titles, and certainly one of two to steer the league in on-base proportion twice. He’s seventh in JAWS and fifth in seven-year peak (all from his years as a catcher). That’s worthy of Cooperstown, and I’m glad he gained’t clog the poll with a number of years of drawing 60-some p.c earlier than getting in.
On the topic of the postseason, MLB Network researcher extraordinaire Jessica Brand supplied some fascinating insights, noting that Mauer is both the thirteenth or fifteenth participant to be elected with out having participated in a single victory, relying upon whether or not one counts pitchers who misplaced their World Series look however had been on the successful aspect. The final one was Phil Niekro, who was elected in 1997, and the firm additionally contains Ernie Banks, one other participant who completed his profession as a median first baseman after a stellar run at a way more necessary place.
As famous inside my preliminary response piece, Mauer could have benefited from one thing of a reverse coattail impact in relation to Posey, a lot as Edgar Martinez benefited whereas David Ortiz’s candidacy loomed. “[I]f Mauer gets in, he owes steak dinners to Bay Area scribes, who are using him as Buster’s setup man,” wrote the San Francisco Chronicle’s Scott Ostler in his poll explainer, whereas editor Christina Kahrl penned an entire article on the subject. Within an citizens of practically 400 voters, I’m positive they’re not alone in pondering that manner.
Todd Helton (sixth, 79.7%, up 7.5%)
Helton’s development previous final yr’s 72.2% wasn’t as simple as anticipated, at the least primarily based upon the sluggish internet flip price amongst public voters; he missed by 11 votes total final yr, then obtained 9 provides and 5 drops from amongst returning voters. In the top, he made it by 18 votes, which was sufficient for him to put up a better share than Mauer. As famous on Tuesday night time, he moved into second place behind Rolen for the bottom first-year proportion obtained by a contemporary (1966 or later) candidate who went on to realize entry by way of the writers, at 16.5%.
That Helton wanted “only” six years the place former teammate Larry Walker wanted the complete 10 could also be proof of the elevated acceptance of superior statistics, at the least with regards to Coors Field. It’s value noting that Walker, whose candidacy ran from 2011–20, bought slowed down early amid a number of the strongest ballots of contemporary voting historical past, however I guess we gained’t have to attend even six years or expend practically as a lot breath debating Nolan Arenado when he finally lands on the poll.
Adrián Beltré (1st, 95.1%)
My guess that we’d be capable to depend the variety of ballots that Beltré was left off on one hand proved to be off base, a uncommon instance of me wildly overestimating the help a candidate would obtain as a substitute of underestimating it. His pre-announcement public-versus-private drop of 9.3% (from 99.1% to 89.8%) nonetheless wasn’t practically as steep as these of Pedro Martinez (17.7%, from 98% to 80.3% in 2015) or Roy Halladay (17.2%, from 92.2% to 75%), to quote a few examples, however good gravy, it doesn’t converse nicely of a voter when 3,166 hits, 477 house runs, and protection like Beltré’s isn’t ok both to vote for or to place one’s title beside.
Still, that shouldn’t reduce the enjoyment of Beltré’s election. The former all-time chief in hits amongst gamers born exterior the United States — he overtook Ichiro Suzuki in 2018 after which was surpassed by Albert Pujols in ’22 — is for now the proprietor of the second-highest share of the vote by any non-U.S. born participant behind Rivera. Even if Ichiro supplants him subsequent yr, their plaques will nonetheless dangle in shut proximity.
As for these upcoming ballots, I’m already very a lot trying ahead to subsequent yr once we’ll have the careers of Ichiro, CC, King Félix, and extra to delve into, hopefully whereas watching Billy Wags recover from the hump. I’ll be again in my subsequent installment with my five-year electoral outlook.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com