A Dodgers Favourite Returns After Manuel Margots to Minnesota

When the Dodgers traded for Tyler Glasnow this offseason, he wasn’t the one participant the Rays despatched west. Manuel Margot additionally joined Los Angeles, the place he would to fill Jonny DeLuca’s previous position as a righty-hitting outfielder able to taking part in any of the three spots. Yet, Margot wasn’t precisely a comfortable match for the Dodgers; his inclusion within the commerce felt extra like a means for Tampa Bay to shed wage. It appeared doubtless that Los Angeles would flip him to a different staff earlier than the beginning of the season.

That’s precisely what occurred on Monday, when the Dodgers despatched Margot and minor league infielder Rayne Doncon to the Twins in trade for minor league shortstop Noah Miller. Los Angeles additionally agreed to cowl $6 million of Margot’s $10 million wage for 2024, together with the $2 million he’d be owed if Minnesota doesn’t train its staff possibility for 2025, as Aaron Gleeman reported. So, in buying and selling Margot, the Dodgers are saving $4 million; naturally, they promptly circled and signed Enrique Hernández to a one-year, $4 million deal.

You can virtually analyze the Dodgers’ facet of this commerce in a field, as a result of the issues being exchanged are so comparable. In reality, to make my evaluation make sense, you need to know the way shut the prospects are in worth, so let’s begin there. Doncon is a 20-year previous center infielder who spent 2023 at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga struggling in opposition to older pitchers. Want a prospect novel? Eric Longenhagen has one for you:

Doncon was a 2021 and 2022 backfield prodigy who seemed like he might turn out to be a slugging center infielder. His bat pace, physique projection, in addition to his struggles on protection and with chase, prompted Alfonso Soriano pipe desires and extra level-headed Esteury Ruiz comparisons on the time. Doncon had a mediocre 2023 with the bat – .215/.283/.368, albeit with a career-high 14 homers – however seemed a lot better on protection. He at the moment has the actions and arm energy for shortstop, however he’s nonetheless younger and has numerous room on his body, which implies he might but outgrow that place and transfer to both second or third. Doncon’s pitch recognition isn’t nice, and he’s a bit extra chase and whiff inclined than is right, however he has good energy for a hitter his age and might be going to develop into extra. The longer he can keep at quick, the higher likelihood he offers himself at being a helpful huge leaguer regardless of his flaws. The Twins have two seasons to develop Doncon earlier than they must resolve whether or not to show him to the Rule 5 draft, and realistically, they’ve one other 12 months or two past that to let him barbecue on the 40-man in the event that they actually need to. He provides a component of upside to their system in addition to a component of threat. He isn’t prone to have a meteoric rise. Instead, he’s a slow-burning, high-variance prospect.

That’s fairly near the textbook definition of a dart throw. He would possibly pan out into one thing nice, however he in all probability gained’t. On the opposite facet, Miller is a 12 months older and performed a stage increased in 2023, however he put up a equally lackluster batting line. Eric once more:

When Miller was the thirty sixth total choose in 2021, there was hope he’d develop sufficient energy to be an on a regular basis shortstop. The protection and get in touch with parts had been already in place. That hasn’t occurred. The 21-year-old has been beneath common total on offense at each minor league stage as a result of he has roughly 30-grade energy. He’s nonetheless a terrific and precocious shortstop defender with implausible actions and arm accuracy. A switch-hitter with above-average plate expertise and bat-to-ball potential, there’s sufficient offense right here for Miller to be a lower-impact utilityman.

In different phrases, Miller is a distinct form of minor leaguer regardless of taking part in the identical place. He’s extra prone to attain the majors however much less doubtless to take action as an influence bat. Overall, I feel their values are shut sufficient that they’re extra about shifting organizational priorities than anything. Maybe Miller has extra energy in there someplace. Maybe Doncon will take an enormous leap in his first post-teenage 12 months. Most doubtless, neither of them will have an effect on the arcs of their groups very a lot.

With that out of the best way, our subsequent cease in understanding this commerce is Minnesota, as a result of its facet of the deal is straightforward. Here’s the Twins’ projected beginning outfield as of Monday, with my notes on them appended:

The Twins had a closely lefty outfield earlier than Monday’s commerce, and one with damage threat as well. Last 12 months, they introduced in Michael A. Taylor to spell Buxton in heart, just for Taylor to finish up as their on a regular basis heart fielder. They didn’t re-sign Taylor, they usually plan to have Buxton again in heart this season, however he’s definitely no lock to remain wholesome. Margot can deal with that position; I’ve him down as a meaningfully worse defender than Taylor however a greater hitter, notably in opposition to lefties.

That second half is vital even when Buxton stays wholesome, as a result of Wallner actually shouldn’t bat in opposition to lefties. Before including Margot, the plan was to make use of Willi Castro as Wallner’s platoon accomplice, however Margot is an improve and frees up Castro for a roving utility position. There’s additionally some prudent damage hedging in-built; if Buxton misses time, Margot can transfer to an on a regular basis beginning position and Castro can deal with short-side platoon responsibility.

This is a straight improve throughout the board, in different phrases. I don’t suppose the Twins might have gotten a participant with Margot’s precise mixture of expertise and match for one 12 months and $4 million in free company. They wanted a righty who might deal with heart; perhaps that’s Adam Duvall, or perhaps it’s simply nobody. I feel the prospect swap was mainly a wash, however even when the Twins gave up a bit bit in it, this deal matches them like a glove. The Dodgers had no use for Margot and had been prepared to make his contract enticing to maneuver him, however that doesn’t imply he’s not an excellent participant. He simply wasn’t a roster match, and squeezing worth out of different groups’ roster complications is nice enterprise.

Speaking of that Los Angeles roster headache, it’s pretty simple to know. The Dodgers ended up with too many outfielders. They moved Mookie Betts from proper subject to second base to assist ease the jam, however the issue was nonetheless there. Teoscar Hernández, James Outman, and Jason Heyward are the staff’s regular beginning configuration in opposition to righties. Ideally, the staff would spell each Outman (typically) and Heyward (virtually at all times) in opposition to lefties, which implies two extra righty-hitting outfielders on the roster. But that might be a *lot* of gamers dedicated to the outfield, and would depart the infield depth too skinny.

Some groups might make use of a DH who might help cowl the sector now and again, however the Dodgers have the last word luxurious drawback there: They have the sport’s greatest DH, and the place within the subject that he’ll assist cowl (beginning in 2025) is pitcher. Yes, it sounds absurd that I’m saying Shohei Ohtani is an issue, and naturally he’s not. But he does restrict the staff’s roster flexibility.

It will get even a bit extra awkward than that. I feel the staff would ideally prefer to carve out some taking part in time for Miguel Vargas and restrict Miguel Rojas’s at-bats; his 69 wRC+ over the past two years is grim. But Vargas can’t play quick – actually, he can’t even play second that effectively, which is why the Dodgers are giving him reps within the outfield this spring. There simply aren’t sufficient infield backups to go round.

Chris Taylor remains to be there, however he can solely cowl a lot. He’s 33, hasn’t hit 500 plate appearances in a season since 2021, and seemed notably hindered by damage final 12 months. He’ll additionally spend his fair proportion of time taking part in third base in opposition to lefties when Max Muncy sits – except he’s taking part in the outfield to spell Heyward. It’s only a powerful puzzle to crack throughout.

Here’s an excellent thought, although: What if Margot might play shortstop? He can’t – however in Enrique Hernández, the Dodgers constructed an inexpensive approximation of that hypothetical. Calling his 2023 season disastrous can be an understatement. After a ghastly 2022 that left him proper on the roster borderline in Boston, he got here out and hit .222/.279/.320, good for a 59 wRC+, and ended up getting reduce. He redeemed himself barely in Los Angeles, posting a 96 wRC+ to shut out the season, however there nonetheless wasn’t a lot marketplace for him in free company. That’s hardly unreasonable for a mid-30s utility participant coming off two straight down years.

In a vacuum, I’d choose Margot to Hernández, in reality. But the Dodgers are decidedly not a vacuum. The potential to spell second, quick, and heart subject with one participant is precisely what they had been out there for. Getting a man they already know and are comfy with due to his earlier years on the staff is simply gravy.

Let’s ignore this commerce and signing and simply ask one query: Would the Dodgers choose Margot or Hernández for 2024, all else being equal. For me, the reply is fairly clearly Hernández. The Dodgers have been constructed round positional flexibility and roster versatility for years. Taylor and Hernández have keyed that, typically as starters and typically as supersubs.

With Ohtani within the fold, and with the staff fairly moderately eager to lighten the load on Betts by having him principally play one place, it was extra necessary than ever for the Dodgers to make the remainder of their roster extra versatile. And that’s precisely what they did right here. In impact, they transmuted Margot into Hernández without charge. Meanwhile, the Twins are in a distinct place; greater than positional versatility, they wanted a righty bat who might credibly play heart subject. If I had been solely confronted with that puzzle, I’d choose Margot over Hernández, too. Everyone bought what they wished ultimately – even Hernández, who bought to interrupt the information of his personal signing himself. Who doesn’t love a Hollywood ending?