A Nice Summer time Ends With a Bummer, because the Orioles Lose Félix Bautista to a UCL Injury

Félix Bautista has been as emblematic of and as essential to the Orioles’ sudden breakthrough as any participant. In his second main league season, the imposing 28-year-old nearer — nicknamed “The Mountain” for his 6-foot-8, 285-pound physique — has emerged as one of many sport’s most dominant and precious relievers, the most important cog in a bullpen that’s helped to prop up a wobbly rotation. Unfortunately, Bautista’s season is on the very least on maintain after he left Friday evening’s sport with what the Orioles have known as “some degree of injury” to his ulnar collateral ligament.

Facing the Rockies at Camden Yards, Bautista entered a 5-4 sport within the ninth inning in quest of his thirty fourth save and his second in as many nights. He battled Jurickson Profar for six pitches earlier than hanging him out on a 101.7-mph fastball, then induced Harold Castro to floor out on a 1-0 pitch. He was one strike away from ending off Michael Toglia when he stumbled off the mound whereas uncorking a 102.3-mph fastball that missed up and out of doors. After he known as for time to get better, the sight of him flexing and squeezing his proper hand prompted supervisor Brandon Hyde, head athletic coach Brian Ebel, and coach José Hernández to examine on him and in the end pull him from the sport.

While Danny Coulombe struck out Toglia on his first and solely pitch of the evening to complete the sport, the sequence understandably put a damper on the Orioles’ comeback win. On Saturday, normal supervisor Mike Elias introduced that Bautista had injured his UCL and can be positioned on the 15-day injured checklist. It’s unclear but whether or not the harm — doubtless a sprain of the ligament, that means some sort of tear — is extreme sufficient to require Tommy John surgical procedure.

“It’s less than 24 hours now and that’s all I’ve got,” stated the GM. “He’s going on the IL. We don’t have a plan beyond that. We have not firmed up any kind of timetable or anything of that nature.”

Based on the reporting, it doesn’t seem that Bautista had undergone an MRI on the time Elias spoke, not like, say, Shohei Ohtani, who underwent a scan between video games of a doubleheader. Such imaging can be crucial to find out the severity of Bautista’s harm, and Hyde’s remark that the staff was “letting it calm down a little bit” instructed that they’re ready for irritation to subside no less than considerably as a way to get a clearer image.

All of which is to say that that is taking longer to play out than some UCL accidents, however even when Bautista’s elbow doesn’t require surgical procedure, his season might be over, as a result of injections of platelet-rich plasma and stem cells — which have efficiently forestalled TJ in some circumstances — are typically adopted by a shutdown of no less than six weeks earlier than a pitcher may be cleared to throw once more. If Bautista wants Tommy John surgical procedure, in all chance he received’t pitch in 2024.

Said Elias of a attainable return this yr, “I think anyone can go on Google and find the spectrum of outcomes or possibilities that [a UCL injury] might entail.” The GM famous that Bautista had not reported any ache or soreness previous to the harm, saying, “It just looked to me like that one particular pitch may have been some unfortunate movement pattern or something… I don’t know, but he was not having any issues prior to that pitch.”

The Orioles have stored Bautista busy due to their success — their 68 save alternatives leads the majors — however his workload doesn’t learn as excessive. His 61 innings is tied for fifteenth amongst all relievers and ranks third amongst Orioles relievers behind Yennier Cano (63) and Mike Baumann (61.1 — wonderful how he suits all of it in together with his FanGraphs work). Bautista’s 56 appearances is tied for twenty sixth general and second on the staff (with Baumann) behind Cano’s 59. Hyde has known as upon Bautista on back-to-back days 11 occasions this season, a complete exceeded by 47 pitchers together with Cano (15) and Baumann (12); Friday was Bautista’s first back-to-back look since July 23. Hyde hasn’t used him greater than two days in a row in both of his two seasons. He’s averaged just below 14 pitches on the entrance finish of this yr’s back-back assignments, and had thrown simply 10 pitches in a 1-2-3 inning on Thursday evening to shut out the Blue Jays. Additionally, Bautista has made 9 appearances of 4 outs or extra this season; his 5 such appearances in save alternatives is tied for second within the majors behind the Yankees’ Michael King (seven).

More more likely to have contributed to Bautista’s harm is the mixture of his fastball’s velocity and the frequency with which he throws it. The 99.5-mph common of his four-seamer is the sport’s third-fastest behind the Twins’ Jhoan Duran and the Blue Jays’ Jordan Hicks — and Bautista throws it over 70% of the time. Biomechanical analysis has implicated each increased velocity and increased charges of throwing fastballs as elements that may result in UCL accidents. Extreme torque exerted too typically is a recipe for shredding ligaments.

But oh, what warmth. Bautista’s four-seamer is rattling close to inconceivable to hit, with batters whiffing on 37.8% of their swings, the seventh-highest mark of anyone who’s thrown no less than 100 four-seamers this yr. When they’ve related, batters have managed only a .156 common and .246 slugging proportion in opposition to the pitch. For what it’s value, hitters have been even worse in opposition to his slower choices, specifically his splitter, which averages 88.5 mph (.122 AVG, .162 SLG, 60.2% whiff), and his rarely-thrown slider, which averages 86.7 mph.

If that is it for Bautista’s season, it ends a powerful breakout marketing campaign. His 2.8 WAR leads all relievers, 0.8 WAR forward of second-ranked Aroldis Chapman, and ties him for the staff lead with starters Kyle Bradish and Kyle Gibson. His 1.48 ERA is the fifth lowest amongst relievers with no less than 40 innings, whereas his 1.89 FIP is second solely to Chapman’s 1.85, and each his 46.4% strikeout fee and 35.4% strikeout-to-walk differential are tops. His 33 saves trails solely Alexis Díaz and Emmanuel Clase, who each have 34.

With Bautista, the Orioles bullpen leads the majors in FIP (3.50) and WAR (7.0) whereas rating third in strikeout fee (26.4%) and sixth in ERA (3.54) — shedding him leaves a significant void. Cano has loved a stellar rookie season, pitching to a 1.60 ERA and a couple of.69 FIP, although his sinker-heavy method doesn’t miss many bats. He notched his fifth save in Saturday’s win, however allowed an unearned ninth-inning run and took the loss on Sunday; it could seem he’s already Hyde’s default alternative for the ninth inning. Coulombe, a lefty, and Shintaro Fujinami, a righty, will tackle even better duty in setup roles whereas presumably recognizing within the ninth. The 33-year-old Coulombe has pitched to a 2.70 ERA and a couple of.60 FIP whereas hanging out 31.3% of hitters, whereas the 29-year-old Fujinami has posted a 4.76 ERA and 5.03 FIP with a 30.4% strikeout fee since being acquired from the A’s (for whom he struggled mightily) forward of the August 1 commerce deadline. DL Hall, a 24-year-old lefty, was recalled from Triple-A Norfolk to take Bautista’s roster spot. Hall is a 50-FV prospect who ranked fifth on the staff’s checklist in February and who sports a fastball that tops out at 97 mph. He posted a 4.22 ERA and 4.75 FIP at Norfolk whereas hanging out 32.3% of hitters.

With an AL-best 81-49 document, the Orioles have clearly performed glorious ball this season, however the lack of Bautista solely amplifies the considerations concerning the staff’s pitching depth. The rotation — which has expanded to 6 starters for the final three cycles — has posted a 3.90 ERA and three.78 FIP in August, an enormous enchancment on the unit’s pre-deadline marks (4.73 ERA, 4.55 FIP). That stated, deadline reinforcement Jack Flaherty has managed only a 6.41 ERA and 4.69 FIP in 4 begins totaling 19.2 innings, and has struggled to get better between begins; he was scratched forward of Wednesday’s scheduled begin on account of “general soreness,” however pitched on Sunday. His indicators of fatigue aren’t shocking given his prolonged harm historical past and present innings complete (123.2 frames), 9.1 greater than he threw in 2021 and ’22 mixed.

Birds of a feather flock collectively, and that’s true so far as well-worked Oriole starters go. As projected in my breakdown of Flaherty’s acquisition, three different members of the staff’s rotation have already surpassed their profession highs in innings earlier than the calendar has turned to September, and a fourth will accomplish that quickly:

The Orioles put the slowdown on Wells, who has pitched to a 3.80 ERA however a 5.25 FIP on the main league stage. Following elevated struggles after the All-Star break, on July 30 they optioned him to Double-A Bowie. After three brief begins spaced one week aside, he moved as much as Norfolk, the place he’s been pitching out of the bullpen in preparation for the same function with the Orioles. Not that he’s a stranger to reduction work; after being plucked from the Twins as a Rule 5 choose in December 2020, he spent the ’21 season as a reliever, making 44 appearances and ending 18 video games, 4 of them with saves.

One different potential reinforcement of word is John Means, a former stalwart of their rotation who’s working his means again from Tommy John surgical procedure. Means offered some shiny mild for the Orioles in the course of the darkish days of 2019-21, incomes All-Star honors, ending as runner-up within the AL Rookie of the Year voting in ’19, throwing a no-hitter in ’21, and posting a 3.73 ERA and 4.65 FIP in 345.1 innings over these three seasons. He tore his UCL three begins into the 2022 season and started his rehab project on August 11. He’ll want no less than one other couple of turns however may present some innings as soon as his rehab project ends on September 8.

Bautista and the Orioles have been one in every of baseball’s finest tales this season, fresh-faced contenders in an ultra-competitive AL East. We’ll definitely see extra of the Orioles this fall, however sadly, we’ve in all probability seen the final of Bautista for awhile.