A Midseason Verify-in on Rookie Third Basemen

I don’t know if this occurs to my colleagues, however I get hooked up to the gamers I write about. I can’t assist it. Cormac McCarthy as soon as wrote, “Things separate from their stories have no meaning,” and I’ve discovered that studying a participant’s story, even when it’s simply the story of why they should lay off the slider, is sufficient to imbue them with an additional layer of that means. Last 12 months, I wrote about Jose Altuve after each the ALDS and the ALCS. It made me really feel extra linked to him, and throughout the World Series, every time he got here to the plate when my fiancée was within the room, I’d say, “That’s my little guy!” I actually stated that (and he or she actually married me anyway).

Back in spring coaching, I wrote up our Positional Power Rankings for third base. It was an actual crash course. We had projections for 149 completely different third basemen, and I wanted to be taught sufficient about every of them to articulate an opinion on what they’d do that 12 months and why. I realized quite a bit about what I worth on the subject of participant efficiency. The train additionally knowledgeable the way in which I’ve watched the sport this 12 months. Diving deep right into a league of third basemen, I shaped attachments to all these gamers, particularly the younger ones, as I learn prospect evaluations and beat experiences and considered their potential. Now that we’re nearing the midway mark, right here’s an replace on the rookies I’ve been rooting for.

Josh Jung – 122 wRC+, 1.9 WAR

Jung’s WAR makes him the sixth-most priceless third baseman within the recreation to this point. He’s additionally performed in 76 of the Rangers’ 79 video games. That’s one thing of a aid, as a result of coming into the season, it was exhausting to know what to anticipate from him in any respect on that entrance. Injuries restricted him to 78 video games in 2021 and 57 video games (26 of them on the big-league stage) in ’22. He wasn’t absolutely wholesome in these 57 video games, and he appeared to lose his sense of the strike zone.

This 12 months, he’s chasing a bit much less and swinging at many extra strikes. As a end result, his stroll fee has elevated from 3.9% to six.1%, and his strikeout fee has dropped from 38.2% to 27.7%. Those nonetheless aren’t good numbers, they usually’re a far cry from his more-walks-than-strikeouts Texas Tech days, however mix them with a few of the most persistently good contact within the recreation, they usually’ll play simply tremendous. We have Jung’s comfortable contact fee at 7.7%, third-best amongst all certified gamers. Meanwhile, his 49% hard-hit fee and 91.5 mph common exit velocity put him within the high fifth of the league. He doesn’t destroy the ball, however all that strong contact makes his .340 BABIP look fairly affordable.

Jung’s protection can also be incomes optimistic marks from three of the 4 main defensive metrics (DRP doesn’t love his arm). Sports Info Solutions has him main all third basemen with 13 “Good Fielding Plays.”

Maikel Garcia – 93 wRC+, 1.5 WAR

Garcia was not a kind of 149 completely different third basemen — 9 of them Royals — with a preseason projection in our Positional Power Rankings, although he did present up at shortstop. Up till May 1, the Royals had accrued all of 0.2 WAR at third base, tied for twenty second in baseball. Since May 2, the day Garcia was known as up, they’re at 2.1, second general. The 23-year-old’s contributions have largely come on the defensive finish: In simply 298 innings at third base, he has 10 OAA, tied for the lead. On a per-inning foundation, all the defensive metrics rank him extremely. That half’s not a shock.

The shock is that Garcia is working an 88th-percentile hard-hit fee and an Eighty fifth-percentile common exit velocity. A bit of over a 12 months in the past, our evaluators had all however given up on the likelihood that he would ever discover some energy. The factor is, they’re nonetheless not improper. Among the 280 gamers with a minimum of 150 plate appearances, Garcia’s 6.5-degree common launch angle is Twenty seventh-lowest; 44% of his hard-hit balls have been grounders. To offer you a body of reference, that’s simply two share factors decrease than famous groundball fanatic Ke’Bryan Hayes. Garcia additionally possesses a incredible eye and nice contact means, so pitchers have to this point been comfortable to throw the ball over the plate and let him hit a grounder someplace. That’s how somebody with an Eighty fifth-percentile common exit velocity finally ends up with an in-zone fee of 54.1%, third-highest amongst gamers with a minimum of 150 PAs.

It’s nonetheless early in Garcia’s profession, however proper now it’s simpler to think about his hard-hit fee coming again right down to earth than his launch angle rising away from it. In the meantime, he’s doing a superb Hayes impression, working a 93 wRC+ and a .103 ISO — completely good for a strong shortstop moonlighting as a superlative third baseman.

Gunnar Henderson – 124 wRC+, 1.6 WAR

After a superb minor league season capped by a powerful 34-game displaying in Baltimore final 12 months, Henderson got here into 2023 as the sport’s high prospect. He struggled to start out the season, however he’s working a 188 wRC+ in June. When discussing his gradual begin, Esteban Rivera singled out his worrisome in-zone contact fee as an enormous wrongdoer. Let’s verify in on it:

Sure sufficient, only a week after Esteban’s article, Henderson began whiffing much less within the zone and shortly caught hearth. That’s to not say there’s nothing left to be involved about in his profile; he’s nonetheless chasing and hanging out greater than he did final 12 months. But so long as he’s crushing the ball to all fields and strolling at a 12.6% clip, there gained’t be many complaints.

Spencer Steer – 126 wRC+, 1.2 WAR

With Joey Votto coming back from damage, Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz getting known as up and Christian Encarnacion-Strand treating Triple-A the way in which Godzilla treats main metropolitan areas, there’s an actual crunch within the Cincinnati infield. It’s an excellent drawback for the Reds to have. At the beginning of the season, we anticipated Steer to see the lion’s share of the third base enjoying time. So far, he’s spent most of his time at first base, however the inflow of expertise (and the obvious readiness of Encarnacion-Strand) implies that he’ll probably begin seeing extra time at DH and within the outfield.

The protection is at all times going to be a difficulty for Steer, so he must hit. That he has, regardless of faltering for a pair weeks following a minor knee damage, although he’s outperforming his peripherals a bit. He’s working a 126 wRC+, however DRC+, which measures contributions and never simply outcomes, has him at 108. Still, he’s making nice swing choices, which have resulted in nice stroll and strikeout charges, which in flip permits him to make use of his abundance of strong however not spectacular contact (the Jungian archetype) into sufficient hits to achieve success.

Coming into the season, that’s precisely how we imagined Steer might succeed. But it’s not the rationale that I’ve determined to hitch the Spencer Steer Society. I’m hopping on board due to the way in which he celebrates hitting a single. After he rounds first and returns to the bag, he provides first base coach Collin Cowgill a low 5, then the 2 flip sideways, lean in, and contact helmets. He’s not the one participant to have a good time this fashion with Cowgill, however Steer simply does it so tenderly. When Tyler Stephenson singles, it may be borderline violent. Steer is so mild that generally it virtually seems like he’s leaning in to nuzzle Cowgill. Come be part of us.

Brett Baty – 91 wRC+, 0.5 WAR

Baty tore up spring coaching and Triple-A earlier than his April callup, however the lengthy and in need of it’s that he’s nonetheless hitting the ball on the bottom an excessive amount of. Once you cut back the plate look minimal to 200, he’s ninth in GB/FB and twenty second in groundball fee. That’s the way you flip a 48.1% hard-hit fee and a 91.2 mph common exit velocity into an anticipated slugging share within the fortieth percentile.

That problem had adopted Baty all through the minors, however final 12 months, he lastly appeared to make sufficient adjustments to place it behind him. Per Eric Longenhagen, “The identifiable visual tweak to the swing, the shift in batted ball profile, and Baty’s dramatic uptick in home runs in 2022 are all indications that he’s dialed in the details that have kept him vacillating between several FV tiers for the last couple of years.” The crew lastly dedicated absolutely to Baty, too, sending Eduardo Escobar to the Angels for prospects final week.

It’s nonetheless early, and there’s nonetheless loads to dream on. Baty has confirmed that he can hit the ball exhausting on the big-league stage, which isn’t nothing, and despite the fact that it’s abandoned him this 12 months, the power to raise the ball isn’t that far again within the rearview mirror. He’s not working a lot of a platoon break up, and he’s additionally been the sufferer of some dangerous batted ball luck to this point. Baty is acting at only a hair beneath league common as he tries to determine issues out. There have been larger crimes.

All stats are as of Tuesday, June 27.