A Top 100 Prospects Update

We’re a couple of month and a half into the minor league season, an inexpensive time for a Top 100 replace, albeit one with a comparatively gentle contact. The function of this replace is to pluck the low-hanging fruit, to shine and reshape the listing relatively than tear down the one from February. Much of the nation is chilly or wet in April and early May, and it could take time for gamers (hitters particularly) to get going. Young gamers are additionally altering on a regular basis, which regularly contains changes to their first style of failure.

You can see the up to date listing in its entirety right here. Below, I’ve highlighted some particular person gamers. I contact on how everybody who’s a 60 FV prospect or higher has carried out up to now this yr, in addition to which gamers have moved up the listing in a significant manner. There are many circumstances by which the order of the listing modified however the participant’s total grade and analysis didn’t. If a pitcher is damage and slid to the again of their FV tier (as with River Ryan, Ricky Tiedemann, Kyle Hurt and Chase Hampton), or if guys are stacked in another way resulting from syllogistic reasoning (akin to former back-of-the-list starter Christian Scott racing previous related skills who’re in, say, Double-A), then I don’t deal with that particular person transfer.

How Does Each Top Prospect Look?

Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles

You’re in all probability conversant in the sequence of Holliday’s 2024. He and the whole Norfolk lineup started the season on a collective tear whereas the Orioles have been getting little manufacturing from second base. Holliday was promoted, hit .059 throughout a two-week massive league trial, was despatched again down, and has solely form of bounced again. Holliday’s spray chart has shifted away from his pull facet and moved towards left subject and the third bottom line. For many of the final three weeks following his demotion, he’s been inside-outing a lot of contact the other manner, together with pitches on the interior third of the plate that he sometimes activates. He is swinging with a ton of effort and imprecision proper now. The manner Holliday’s physique unwinds all through his swing remains to be very thrilling and athletic, however he could have to make an adjustment that simplifies issues so he could be on time extra persistently. Bryce Harper’s swing may be a very good template. These early hiccups usually are not motive sufficient to come back off of Holliday’s high prospect analysis.

Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers

Langford went on a god-like Cactus League tear, broke camp as a heart-of-the-order hitter on the defending champions’ Opening Day roster, after which didn’t hit for energy throughout a month of huge league at-bats earlier than he was shelved with a hamstring harm. Langford’s high quality of contact was higher than his surface-level slash line, and the issues that made him the no. 2 total prospect earlier than the season began (enormous instruments and plate protection) have been nonetheless evident. He hit quite a lot of balls simply shy of the wall in April. I nonetheless anticipate him to be an offensive star upon his return, and possibly fairly rapidly.

James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

Wood, who entered the season as our fifth total prospect, has lower his strikeout price considerably early this yr. Entering the season, it had been up round 30% since he was traded to Washington, nevertheless it’s a rock stable 19.1% up to now in 2024, and Wood is attending to a lot energy that he has an OPS over 1.000 as of this writing. Wood’s wrists are remarkably fast and he has unusual bat management for a hitter his measurement. For such an enormous man, the holes in his swing are comparatively small, principally up round his arms proper now. It’s doubtless that massive league velocity will sneak previous him extra typically (the common Triple-A fastball is 91-92 mph up to now in 2024), however the ceiling on Wood’s energy is as massive as anybody within the minors and he’s growing collective confidence in his skill to get to it. His rating on the preseason Top 100 was already very aggressive, however Wood’s grade has been boosted.

Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

I wrote a protracted Skenes replace right here. From an FV grade standpoint, his new splitter/sinker and elevated changeup utilization and really feel are significant developments, sufficient for Skenes to maneuver up a FV tier into rarified air for a pitching prospect. Here are the pitchers who I’ve ever 65’d or higher: Alex Reyes, Shohei Ohtani, MacKenzie Gore, Eury Pérez, Grayson Rodriguez, and now, Skenes.

Jackson Chourio, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

It grew to become a digital lock that Chourio would break camp with the large league workforce when he signed a contract extension this winter. In his offseason scouting report, I wrote about how the size of Chourio’s swing would possibly make it powerful for him to catch as much as massive league velocity, and that has up to now been the case, as he’s obtained an OPS near .600 towards fastballs 93 mph and above, towards which he principally has no pull-side airborne contact. He has sufficient energy to be harmful to the other subject and his protection goes to present his offensive manufacturing fairly a little bit of margin for error, so whereas Chourio isn’t off to an incredible begin, he’s nonetheless an excellent gifted 20-year-old who needs to be an impression participant over time.

Jackson Merrill, SS, San Diego Padres

I wrote about Merrill’s transition to middle subject and its impression on his prospectdom right here. In quick, he seems like he’s going to stay on the market and that’s a giant deal.

Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks

In late March, Lawlar suffered a torn UCL in his thumb that required surgical procedure and, in line with the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro, was to maintain him out for not less than all of April and May. Lawlar is rehabbing in Arizona and making frequent cameos at Chase Field.

Junior Caminero, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays

Caminero is hitting nicely (he has an OPS north of .900 as a 20-year-old at Triple-A as of this writing) and included on this replace is a extra bullish forecast for his protection. It’s nonetheless believable at his measurement that he’ll finally want to maneuver to the outfield, however for now, what Caminero lacks in arms he makes up for with a lightning quick trade and plus arm. The issues about his swing that I outlined in his full scouting report are nonetheless current, however he continues to carry out in a superlative manner regardless of them.

Samuel Basallo, C, Baltimore Orioles

Basallo has a barely below-average wRC+ up to now in 2024, however he’s a 19-year-old catcher at Double-A, in order that’s high quality. He seems good behind the plate (his receiving has improved, and his arm remains to be nice), however he’s extra typically taking part in first base and DH’ing than he’s catching. Especially along with his offense slowing down considerably, I feel it is sensible for the Orioles to revisit give attention to the catching place. He’s going to have huge energy at maturity and has uncommon ceiling for a catcher, and there isn’t an instantaneous want on offense on the massive league stage. It’s attainable this isn’t a sign that the Orioles are successfully transferring on from Basallo as a catcher and as a substitute are simply making an attempt to protect his physique with a lighter load. If I assumed Bassallo was going to maneuver off of catcher fully, I might slide him into the 55 FV tier of the listing, proper across the nook thumpers like org-mate Coby Mayo.

Dylan Crews, CF, Washington Nationals

Here we’ve got one other upper-echelon prospect whose pre-existing swing points have been uncovered and are going to power an adjustment. I wrote in Crews’ Top 100 blurb from the offseason that he’s typically late towards fastballs and actually solely capable of pull softer stuff on the interior third with any form of energy. This has been a problem within the early portion of 2024, as he’s hanging out practically 30% of the time whereas attending to sufficient of his energy to be productive anyway. He and the Nationals have to discover a manner for him to cowl the interior half of the zone.

Ethan Salas, C, San Diego Padres

Salas, who turns 18 in the beginning of June, is struggling to hit at High-A Fort Wayne. It’s frequent for hitters to battle throughout the frigid first month of the Midwest League, and there’s little or no precedent for a prospect this younger being at High-A. Salas remains to be an extremely superior defender for his age and he can transfer the barrel across the zone. He isn’t making flush contact proper now and he’s swinging by way of a ton of excessive fastballs, however he’s additionally making contact with lots of them. It’s too early to maneuver off him in any respect.

Andrew Painter, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

Painter entered 2023 spring coaching wanting like he would possibly break camp within the Phillies rotation and provides the then-defending NL champs one other high-end starter. He started to have elbow points earlier than the common season and the Phillies took a comparatively conservative method to his rehab within the hopes he’d reply to a PRP injection and have the ability to pitch in some unspecified time in the future final yr. It didn’t work and he had TJ at a time that can doubtless price him all of 2024. He appeared like a possible top-of-the-rotation starter on the finish of 2022.

Moving Up

Xavier Isaac, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays

Issac’s rotational explosion for a hitter his measurement could be very particular, and whereas he’s going to swing and miss at an elevated price, he additionally has ridiculous energy all around the strike zone. He’s drastically overhauled his conditioning since he was drafted and appears like a future middle-of-the-order anchor. He has a 150 wRC+ at High-A Bowling Green as of this replace, and by way of hard-hit price and peak exit velocities, Isaac is performing on the very high of the dimensions. If you’re in a dynasty league or acquire prospect’s playing cards, you should get this man now, as a result of if he continues on this tempo towards Double-A pitching within the second half of the yr, he’s going to complete the season as a high 5 or 10 total prospect. Tip of the hat to the Rays, who drafted Isaac although he wasn’t a well-known showcase prospect. The decide was initially met with confusion, even derision, however just like the Evan Carter Rangers decide, it seems prefer it’s going to have a significant impression on this franchise although Isaac remains to be obscure sufficient that the photograph service we use for header artwork doesn’t actually have a image of him in its database but.

Marcelo Mayer, SS, Boston Red Sox

Speaking of adjustments in conditioning, Mayer seems extra svelte than final yr, his vary on protection is healthier, and he’s modified the way in which he throws, now eliminating the baseball as rapidly as attainable even when it means throwing three- and four-hoppers to first base. I’m nonetheless apprehensive about his skill to contact delicate stuff within the backside of the strike zone, however he’s raised his possibilities of staying at quick. His FV grade hasn’t modified, however he’s moved up sufficient that I wished to say it.

Moving In

Aidan Miller, SS/3B, Philadelphia Phillies

It’s positively vital to maintain Miller’s efficiency in context. He was an older highschool decide and he’s nearly to show 20, which is just a little outdated for Low-A. He additionally shares swing components that make me terrified of eventual swing-and-miss, which you’ll be able to examine in his report. But up to now, none of these points have manifested in Clearwater, Miller has a 90% in-zone contact price, and he isn’t exhibiting any vulnerability to fastballs on the high of the zone. You can even watch Miller swing and be reminded of Nico Hoerner, and it’s believable Miller might find yourself with the same profile, albeit one with extra energy.

Josue De Paula, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

De Paula was unnoticed of the Top 100 throughout the offseason as a result of I wished to see him really hit for energy (he’s a nook defender, in any case), which has began to occur. He didn’t have a house run till just a few days earlier than this replace, however his underlying exit velos have been sensational. His 94 mph common exit velo up to now this season is elite, up eight ticks from final yr, whereas his 114 mph max is up 4.

Andy Pages, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

Another man who remade his physique throughout the offseason, Pages had season-ending shoulder surgical procedure in 2023 and got here again this yr with a completely completely different physique and stage of athleticism. He is swinging with extra athletic verve than ever earlier than (he was a Top 100 man earlier than his harm), and it raises the ceiling on his protection to have higher velocity.

Cade Povich, LHP, Baltimore Orioles

Povich was left off the offseason Top 100 as a result of I assumed that at his stage of velocity, he’d want higher command than he has for his fastball to play. He appears to have leveled up on this regard and is having a greater go of Triple-A than he did final yr.

Others Who Received Consideration

Owen Murphy, RHP, Atlanta Braves

Murphy was a Pick to Click and he’s off to a unbelievable begin at High-A Rome, however he hasn’t but proven a persistently good slider. His vertical fastball and curveball combo could be very promising by itself, and Murphy’s arm motion is the kind typically well-suited for changeup growth, however he and the Braves appear centered on creating that slider proper now, and it’s nonetheless solely okay.

Jacob Melton, OF, Houston Astros

Melton’s swinging strike price is surprisingly low contemplating what I anticipated of him popping out of Oregon State. His head remains to be flying round lots all through his swing and he tends to spray quite a lot of contact to the other subject. I’m simply not snug projecting that that is the offensive talent set of an on a regular basis outfielder.

Joey Loperfido, 1B, Houston Astros

Lopefrido was on a homer-hitting tear at Triple-A Sugarland previous to his massive league promotion, however he was additionally hanging out 30% of the time. Last listing cycle’s grade nonetheless feels sufficiently excessive on him. He’s a high quality nook function participant greater than he’s a real on a regular basis participant.

Lazaro Montes, OF, Seattle Mariners

Montes is a huge outfield prospect who has a ridiculous Cal League slash line up to now this yr. Surprisingly, his hard-hit price has been a comparatively modest 30% up to now, whereas his contact charges (in-zone and out) are hovering within the 70-74% vary, which is comfortably under the large league common. There’s certainly massive power-hitting ceiling right here, however I’m not snug projecting the long-term offensive success wanted for him to be an impression participant on the positions Montes will have the ability to play.

Brandon Young, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Young has had just a little velocity bump and has been totally dominant at Double-A Bowie. His fastball has at all times had massive vertical break, however now it’s extra typically 93-94 mph, up from 91-92. He has a well-defined four-pitch combine and plus command, although solely his changeup is producing a plus price of swing-and-miss and Young locates that pitch within the zone rather more typically than is typical of a giant league pitcher. He’s a near-ready starter however let’s see him maintain the velo bump all yr earlier than contemplating him a mid-rotation prospect.

Luke Keaschall, 2B/CF, Minnesota Twins

As we method work on the Twins listing from high to backside, we checked on Keaschall, who has carried out nothing however rake since coming into professional ball, albeit in a comparatively small pattern. He’s proven really feel for the zone, bat management, and modest energy. Keaschall has by no means been an excellent infield defender and the Twins have been experimenting with him in middle subject. He could be very a lot nonetheless studying to play on the market.

Rubel Cespedes, 3B, Minnesota Twins

Cespedes is a possible plus third base defender with a 70 arm, able to hosing guys from deep within the nook. His swing is much like Cam Collier’s and draft prospect Bryce Rainer’s — there’s massive bat velocity and low-ball raise however actual vulnerability on the high of the strike zone.