Wednesday, October 23

Amid Their August Surge, the Rangers Have Misplaced Josh Jung

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

No staff has come out of the August 1 commerce deadline hotter than the Texas Rangers. Not solely did they make substantial additions to their roster — most notably by including Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to their rotation — however they’ve reeled off a season-high eight-game successful streak to begin this month, enabling them to develop their AL West lead over the Astros to a few video games. Alas, they suffered a considerable blow alongside the way in which, as rookie third baseman Josh Jung fractured his left thumb in Sunday’s sport. He’ll bear surgical procedure to stabilize the harm, which may sideline him for the following six weeks, however fortuitously the Rangers have the depth to face up to his absence.

The 25-year-old Jung injured himself whereas pulling down a 109-mph line drive off the bat of the Marlins’ Jorge Soler within the sixth inning of Sunday’s sport. The ball hit the bottom of the thumb of his glove hand and squirted out, however he had the presence of thoughts to get better it and step on third base for a pressure out, then throw to second to finish a double play.

One batter later, Jung left the sport, to the shock of supervisor Bruce Bochy. “I went out to the mound, I had no idea he got hurt on that play,” mentioned Bochy. “The calmness that he showed picking up the ball, stepping on third … he didn’t grimace, he didn’t do anything to make us think that he was hurt.”

Jung flew to Arizona to be evaluated by hand specialist Dr. Donald Sheridan, who really useful the surgical process, which can possible contain the position of pins to stabilize the fracture. A six-week absence would convey him again round September 18, leaving him obtainable for the ultimate two weeks of the common season.

The harm interrupts what has been a wonderful season for Jung, a former first-round decide (2019), Top 100 prospect (ninth on final yr’s record, thirty first on this yr’s), and first-time All-Star. Jung’s 22 homers lead all rookies, whereas his 2.7 WAR is tied for fourth amongst rookie place gamers, and tied for first amongst these within the AL:

Top AL Rookie Position Players by WAR

Player Team PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ WAR
Josh Jung TEX 461 22 .274 .323 .489 122 2.7
Gunnar Henderson BAL 406 19 .243 .330 .475 121 2.7
Edouard Julien MIN 236 10 .297 .387 .510 150 2.0
Jose Caballero SEA 215 3 .222 .349 .318 99 1.8

Statistics by means of August 8.

Jung is sadly no stranger to accidents and surgical procedures. He went underneath the knife to restore a stress fracture in his left foot in early 2021 and didn’t make his season debut till June 15. He underwent surgical procedure to restore a torn labrum in his left shoulder — an harm suffered whereas weightlifting — in February 2022 and didn’t make his season debut till July 28, although he did get a September cup of espresso within the majors. The fracture received’t hold him out as lengthy, although he’s combating the clock a bit if his therapeutic proves to be sluggish.

Jung’s loss is compounded by that of beginning catcher Jonah Heim, who additionally earned All-Star honors for the primary time this yr. The 28-year-old Heim, who has hit for a 123 wRC+ (.280/.337/.479) whereas beginning 80 video games behind the plate, landed on the IL retroactive to July 27 as a result of a strained tendon in his left wrist; he’s progressed to the purpose of taking batting apply on the sphere as of Tuesday, and can possible return to the lineup in some unspecified time in the future mid-month. The two absentees rank “only” sixth and seventh on the staff when it comes to wRC+, as a result of the Rangers’ offense is an absolute juggernaut, with the majors’ highest scoring price (5.78 runs per sport) and wRC+ (122). The lineup is so deep that 11 of the 12 gamers who’ve gotten not less than 150 PA have hit for a 99 wRC+ or higher, with outfielder/DH Robbie Grossman (92 wRC+) the one one lacking out on the get together. On the opposite facet of the ball, the staff can also be and not using a third All-Star in starter Nathan Eovaldi, who’s working his manner again from a forearm pressure. The mixture of his harm and Jacob deGrom’s UCL tear spurred the Rangers’ aggressive method to upgrading their rotation forward of the deadline.

In Jung’s absence, the Rangers plan to have Ezequiel Duran, Josh H. Smith and Jonathan Ornelas share the workload at third base. The 26-year-old Smith, the lone lefty swinger of the trio, has emerged as a helpful utilityman in his second main league season, hitting .214/.344/.349 (101 wRC+) whereas taking part in shortstop, left discipline, third base, and second base. The 23-year-old Ornelas, who positioned twenty second on the staff’s Top Prospects record a month in the past, was recalled from Triple-A Round Rock — the place he was hitting .250/.360/.348 (80 wRC+) — to take Jung’s roster spot. He’s a 40-FV prospect, a sprig hitter with out a lot energy. Speed and protection are his calling playing cards. He has the arm energy to play on the left facet of the infield, albeit as a reserve; he’s no risk to Jung’s job.

The most attention-grabbing one of many bunch is the 24-year-old Duran, who like Smith was acquired from the Yankees within the Joey Gallo commerce on July 29, 2021, and who has to price as one of many majors’ most improved gamers this season. After getting into final season because the no. 68 prospect on our Top 100 record, Duran made the soar from Double-A Frisco to the majors in early June, then bounced forwards and backwards between Round Rock and Arlington a few instances. He hit simply .236/.277/.365 (82 wRC+) in 220 PA whereas chasing 42.1% of pitches out of the strike zone and punching out 24.5% of the time. While he’s nonetheless hacking away (41.4% chase price, 27.3% strikeout price), he’s additionally hitting the ball a lot tougher this yr:

Ezequiel Duran Batted Ball Profile

Season BBE GB/FB GB% FB% EV Barrel% HH% AVG xBA SLG xSLG wOBA xwOBA
2022 154 1.53 50.6% 33.1% 85.9 4.5% 31.2% .236 .216 .365 .317 .282 .256
2023 221 0.94 37.3% 39.5% 90.4 10.9% 45.7% .277 .271 .474 .479 .340 .341

Duran has accomplished a a lot better job of elevating the corridor, unlocking his 60-grade uncooked energy to hit 14 residence runs to go together with his .277/.322/.474 (117 wRC+) line. In reality, amongst gamers with not less than 200 PA final yr and 300 PA this yr, his 4.5-mph acquire in exit velocity is the best within the majors, as is his 14.5-point soar in hard-hit price. Meanwhile, his 6.3-point enhance in barrel price is tied with Sean Murphy for third behind Corey Seager (+8.6%) and Michael A. Taylor (6.6%), and his 35-point enhance in wRC+ is ninth.

Duran’s versatility and newfound punch has made him a secret weapon of kinds for the Rangers. He started the season in a left discipline platoon with Smith, and the pair quickly switched to filling in for Seager when the shortstop suffered a Grade 2 left hamstring pressure in mid-April. For the final three weeks of Seager’s five-week absence, Duran was the on a regular basis shortstop, and since then he’s remained within the combine at one place or one other, together with extra time at quick throughout Seager’s latest absence for a sprained proper thumb. In all, Duran has performed 36 video games at shortstop, 25 in left discipline, 19 at DH, 4 apiece at second and third, two at first, and one in proper. No phrase on whether or not he owns a catchers mitt.

Back to Jung. One bummer about his harm is that it couldn’t solely value him the AL Rookie of the Year award, it may value the Rangers a draft decide through the Prospect Promotion Incentive from final yr’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Because Jung was a Top 100 prospect with a spot on the Opening Day roster, he would internet the Rangers an additional draft decide after the primary spherical if he had been to win Rookie of the Year or end within the prime three of MVP voting.

Right now, that’s of secondary concern to the Rangers, who jumped out to a 40-20 begin however then went 20-26 from June 7 to the tip of July as their lead over the Astros dwindled from a excessive of six and a half video games right down to half a sport. The mixture of their roster additions and their latest surge has improved their odds of successful the AL West from 39.7% to 48.7%, and of creating the playoffs from 75.1% to 90.8%. The the rest of the AL West race seems to be to be extra of a dash between the 2 Texas groups than a dogfight, as they face one another just for a three-game sequence in Arlington from September 4-6. Jung received’t be again in time for that, but when his surgical procedure and therapeutic goes in keeping with plan, he ought to be capable of assist Texas sew up its first playoff spot in seven years.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com