I write to you, expensive readers, throughout the interregnum between the All-Star Game and the second half of the season. Soon sufficient, the main target of each baseball author in North America can be on the commerce deadline, and after that, the stretch run earlier than the playoffs. The season is mainly over already; goodness, how the time flies.
Having spent many of the previous month concentrating on the draft and the NCAA match, I’m not fairly able to let go of that enjoyable midseason diversion. So I’ll spend that interregnum the way in which I spent the remainder of the All-Star break: working the draft question instrument on Baseball Reference. Today, we’re going to speak about shortstops.
In Wednesday’s column on first-round catchers, I mentioned at some size the logic behind spending early picks on up-the-middle prospects. If the participant hits and stays at a premium place, that’s nice. If he can solely contribute on one facet of the ball, that’s nonetheless steadily a helpful massive leaguer. There’s simply a lot extra room for developmental error for shortstops and middle fielders than there may be for first basemen. And it appears MLB groups agree; within the first spherical of this previous week’s draft, 14 shortstops went off the board, an all-time report.
This isn’t precisely an aberration. The 2021 draft additionally set a brand new report for first-round shortstops, with 11. The report earlier than that was 9, set in 2019. Put the variety of shortstops in a line graph, and it seems like a win chance chart in a recreation the place one group’s nearer will get the yips.
There are some apparent confounding variables in an evaluation of just about 60 years’ value of drafts. Scouting is way extra systematized than it was within the Nineteen Sixties, for starters. But the primary spherical of the draft can also be longer. In the primary Rule 4 draft in 1965, there have been 20 first-round picks, as a result of, you understand, there have been solely 20 groups again then. Over the years, that has expanded attributable to compensation picks, notably the way in which B-Ref measures it, to incorporate all picks earlier than the second spherical. This yr, that included aggressive stability spherical A, in addition to a prospect promotion incentive decide for the Mariners, twenty ninth total, for Julio Rodríguez arising and profitable AL Rookie of the Year. (I do that for a dwelling and I needed to double-check what PPI stood for.)
So to account for among the draft bloat (which is totally different from the draft bloat you get after having 5 pints of Yuengling when watching March Madness at a Buffalo Wild Wings), I checked the annual shortstop haul for the highest 100 picks of the draft. Depending on the yr, that would come as early because the third spherical or as late as the tip of the fifth. Even so, we’re nonetheless drafting extra shortstops now than earlier than.
The 2023 draft was additionally peculiar on the prime; as a lot as the perfect school arms carried this class, it was an odd yr for pitching. In the each draft for the earlier 44 years, at the very least one school lefthander went within the first spherical; that streak ended on Sunday, as Wake Forest’s Sean Sullivan needed to wait till the forty sixth decide to listen to his identify. And just one highschool pitcher, Noble Meyer, got here off the board within the first spherical. Fewer pitchers being drafted means extra alternatives for shortstops. The idiosyncrasies of this class however, I’m satisfied that somebody is getting clever to the benefits of going up-the-middle early within the draft. But the explanation may not be as simple as you’d assume.
Obviously, not all shortstop prospects stay there. In the very first draft, in 1965, the primary shortstop picked who turned out to be value a rattling was Amos Otis, who by no means performed a recreation on the place within the majors. He slid all the way in which down the defensive spectrum to… not that far, truly; he received three Gold Gloves as a middle fielder.
Others fall additional. Justin Upton was the no. 1 total decide in 2005 as a 17-year-old highschool shortstop. By the time he was 19, he’d reached the majors, however he’d additionally moved out to proper area. Michael Cuddyer and Gary Sheffield had been first-round shortstops, God bless them. But that’s why you go along with up-the-middle expertise; there’s an extended option to fall defensively earlier than the participant has to maneuver to DH.
And we’re now in a golden age of large shortstops. Carlos Correa and Corey Seager stayed on the place. So did Oneil Cruz, who’s in all probability been larger than Ozzie Smith since center college. Big ballplayers are actually athletic sufficient to remain not solely on the filth but in addition up the center, so a participant with nook outfield measurement and energy might credibly name himself a shortstop within the draft.
Some shortstops from this draft class may transfer to different positions earlier than they hit the majors, however they nonetheless come by their present designation truthfully. Arjun Nimmala, for example, is so younger we don’t know what he’ll appear to be when he’s massive league prepared, however at this second he can completely play brief. But among the many 13 different first-round shortstops, sure others are straining credulity a little bit.
The second shortstop off the board, Stanford’s Tommy Troy, obtained a while at brief within the Cape Cod League final summer season however performed principally third base in his draft yr. The Rays introduced TCU third baseman Brayden Taylor as a shortstop, and to be truthful, he did make 10 appearances on the place over three years in Fort Worth, in opposition to 167 at third base. Maybe the Rays will do some sort of math and participant improvement magic on Taylor and switch him into the second coming of Andrelton Simmons; failing that, they could as properly dispense with the pretense.
But it’s straightforward to know why a participant and his camp would attempt to stretch the reality relating to defensive upside. At the mix, I had a nice dialog with Aidan Miller, who went twenty seventh total to the Phillies. I had issues in regards to the offensive necessities that Miller — already a power-hitting third baseman as a highschool senior — may need to stay as much as ought to he have to slip over to first base within the execs. He was fast to insist that not solely was he assured he might play third base, but in addition that he’d come to Phoenix intent on convincing groups that he might play shortstop within the majors. And certain sufficient, that’s what he was launched as on Sunday night time. We’ll see if he can keep there.
It’s additionally within the groups’ curiosity to color a rosy image of their new draft picks. A bit finesse by no means damage anybody, however we’ve seen some groups abuse the general public’s credulity in that respect. In 2020, the Tigers spent the primary total decide on Spencer Torkelson. The very first thing Tork did in school was break Arizona State’s freshman house run report, which had been set by Barry Bonds. As elevator pitches for draft picks go, “Broke a home run record set by Barry Bonds” is likely one of the finest I can consider. But when the Tigers introduced Torkelson, they obtained a little bit grasping: the draft card learn “third base,” a place he had by no means performed, both in two-plus seasons of school ball or in two journeys to the Cape Cod League.
Now, a 6-foot-1 right-handed school first baseman is a troubling profile for the no. 1 total decide, so the Tigers would have been clever to pursue even a distant risk that Torkelson might deal with the new nook. The experiment commenced the next spring, in his first season of minor league ball, and lasted all of 43 video games. Fielding proportion doesn’t give a complete look right into a participant’s protection, yada yada, however in 27 video games of third base in Double-A, he posted a fielding proportion of .854.
So sure, it’s simpler for larger athletes to play more durable positions. And sure, groups are as cognizant as ever of the worth of an up-the-middle prospect. But a giant a part of the seeming rush on shortstops on this draft is the results of intelligent branding. Maybe groups are simply being optimistic about their new prospects. Or perhaps they’re simply mendacity to everybody.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com