Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/5/23

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s get began

Tres Rios: Would the Pirates actually entertain buying and selling Bednar in the event that they’re hanging round 1st come deadline time? Heard a little bit chatter about this, and the way the Os did one thing comparable final  12 months. Thanks

Ben Clemens: I don’t actually assume the Pirates will, as a result of no less than so far as I can inform, Pittsburgh as a metropolis is hungrier for a postseason berth than Baltimore was, and it feels just like the Pirates actually need the jolt

Ben Clemens: they haven’t received the NLC for in all probability 30 years

Talfred: Why does JBJ nonetheless have a serious league job? He’s 33 years outdated, in his third straight 12 months of destructive fWAR, and his wRC+ is 6. I perceive the glove remains to be glorious, however there’s no cause the person ought to be allowed in a batter’s field.

Ben Clemens: Because Royals

Appa Yip Yip: Is José Berríos good once more?

Ben Clemens: I assume so, huh?

Ben Clemens: the way it occurred I don’t know

Ben Clemens: however alternatively, I don’t understand how he turned dangerous within the first place

Ben Clemens: So I’m simply gonna say that he’s extsremely inconsistent

Kal: I do know you aren’t a giant fantasy man however for those who had to decide on 1 C to commerce away in a dynasty league, would it not be Realmuto, Sal Perez or F Alvarez? (Looking to win now)

Ben Clemens: oh absolutely Sal

Jason: Thoughts on Corbin Carroll? Given his success, what do you see as his ceiling efficiency clever?

Ben Clemens: I actually don’t just like the idea of ceilings for gamers

Ben Clemens: like, his ceiling is that he wins a number of mvp awards

Bruce & E Street: Need pitching assist( who doesn’t) was supplied Miles Mikolas for Lane Thomas. 12T deep Mixed Daily Roto. I belive I’ve sufficient Bats, will Mikolas be useful with W, Whip, Era ? Thanks

Ben Clemens: I’m fairly skeptical of Mikolas being a distinction maker in fantasy

Ben Clemens: I’m certain he’ll be an affordable starter for the cardinals

Ben Clemens: Pretty skeptical about him serving to you on WHIP although

Wrights Back: What precisely (or roughly) is incorrect with the Mets’ offense (let’s depart their offensive pitching out of the body for now);  Lindor is making Baez seem like a contact king, Baty appears overmatched, Alonso is all or nothing, McNeil  is putting out far more than the previous, Vogelbach is AWOL… Are they reaping the bitter fruits of a sabremetrics heavy “let’s discover an inefficiency in batters who DON’T hit home runs” strategy to offence?    Or is that this an issue laid on the ft of their hitting coach?  I word the identical group (plus or minus) have been beasts till Marie went down late final 12 months….
Please give me hope that ‘meaningful Octobers’ aren’t receding into the previous (once more).

Ben Clemens: I feel that the tip of your query has rather a lot occurring

Ben Clemens: the identical group have been certainly beasts final 12 months

Ben Clemens: baseball is frustrating that method

Joe: Hi Ben, thanks for taking my query. I’ve a query about WAR. I learn that WAR is an approximation and might have margin of error of 1 and you’ll have a clearer image taking care of a pattern dimension of a 12 months. With that understanding, I’m confused why folks use WAR to match gamers early within the season. Like a participant A is 2.5 fWAR vs participant B is 2.0 fWAR, so participant A is having a greater season. Is my understanding of WAR is wrong? What am I lacking right here?

Ben Clemens: Nah, you’re fairly proper. I feel folks overuse WAR in that particular method

Guest: Seiya’s statcast web page is roofed in purple, but his xBA stays .248.  Would you employ this for instance of how statcast can deceive you into pondering a participant is healthier than he’s, or an instance of how we should always look forward to outcomes to meet up with abilities?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s additionally an excellent reminder that xBA isn’t an excellent stat

Ben Clemens: however no, seiya’s hitting the snot out of the ball, that’s an excellent factor

John: Can Bobby Miller (Dodgers) carry on his scorching begin? Or that is one other case of small pattern dimension? Will we see a regression as a result of he isn’t speculated to be this good?

Ben Clemens: Can he preserve pitching to a 1 ERA? I doubt it

Ben Clemens: Can he be an excellent main league starter immediately? Totally

Ben Clemens: the stuff appears very actual

Everybody: Thanks for the welcome, Ben

Ben Clemens: For you particularly!

Guest: You’re in PT, however your chat time exhibits in ET. SAD

Ben Clemens: We know the place our bread is buttered

Ben Clemens: ET is the de facto time zone of the US, ?

Wingedbeater: Is there a spot to seek out an anticipated ok% stat? I’m pondering that it might be comparatively simply derived from the plate self-discipline stats obtainable on the participant pages and associated league averages. (LeMahieu, as an example, has greater than doubled his ok% and whereas his plate self-discipline specifics are worse they don’t appear to warrant that enhance. Maybe they do, although—is there a much less hand wavey method of creating that declare?)

Ben Clemens: I’ve tried making a number of variations of this and by no means fairly gotten to at least one I’m proud of

Ben Clemens: I feel that Dan sometimes exhibits some zK% sort stats

Ben Clemens: the issue is that there’s loads of issue generalizing as a result of behaviors change based mostly on the rely

Yo-Yo: Good afternoon, Ben! A few STL Q’s for you. What will STL do with Wainwright if he continues to be smashed (solely hitting 85 mph on the finish of his final begin), and does Jordan Walker refusing to vary his swing change your analysis of him? He’s over 60% grounders and nonetheless appears horrible within the outfield.

Ben Clemens: I imply, they’re gonna name Wainwright their ace and let him preserve going

Ben Clemens: He’s Adam Wainwright!

Ben Clemens: As for Walker, my analysis hasn’t modified a lot

Ben Clemens: i imply, he was mashing via the minors final 12 months with the identical swing

Ben Clemens: let’s take a breath

Ben Clemens: I used to be towards him being as much as begin the 12 months, although, and I don’t fully perceive why the staff is so insistent on making him assist this 12 months

Ben Clemens: like, it’s effective in case your 21 12 months outdated mega prospectd isn’t instantly main league prepared

Geoff: concerning JBJ – the one cause he was signed was as a result of Drew Waters was harm preseason, and the one cause he’s on the staff now’s as a result of Kyle Isbel is at present harm. There are loads of causes to clown on the Royals however this isn’t one among them imo

Ben Clemens: I’d have reasonably performed loads of different maybes than JBJ

Ben Clemens: if I’m the no-hope Royals

Ben Clemens: like, I completely perceive the concept of signing competent veterans in order that your squad isn’t a disater

Ben Clemens: appreciated the Greinke signing and so forth

Ben Clemens: I don’t put that in the identical group

Sirras: Played Terra Mystica for the primary time with my Monday evening sport group final week. Very enjoyable, very strategic. The asymmetrical play types assist preserve issues fascinating!

Ben Clemens: I’ve by no means performed, however I’d actually prefer to

Ben Clemens: I’ve heard it’s very enjoyable

Liam: pirates have by no means received the nlc 🙁

Ben Clemens: Oh wow, I assume they received lengthy sufficient in the past that it was the NLE then

Thomas: If you’re the Dbacks, what do you do in regards to the Starting Pitching state of affairs? They in all probability want 1-2 extra first rate arms, however they actually need to see what they’ve of their glut of pitching prospects

Ben Clemens: I’d give the prospects extra run

Ben Clemens: I feel that yhou have to seek out out what you have got, significantly with pitchers

Ben Clemens: typically they simply click on proper off the bat

Bruce: Farhan said that SF Giants will likely be aggressive in the course of the commerce deadline. Isn’t it a little bit early to state this for a staff beneath 500 and appears to be a fairly flawed staff?

Ben Clemens: Respectfully: who cares

Ben Clemens: actions converse louder than wores

Ben Clemens: why not say that and provides the staff confidence?

Steve E.: Re Francisco Lindor: Any theories or relevant analytics to elucidate the crash? He’s … terrible.

Ben Clemens: take a breath, Steve

Ben Clemens: is my sincere recommendation

Ben Clemens: he’s been worse than anticipated

Ben Clemens: if that is terrible, like, jeez

Ben Clemens: there are in all probability not very many non-awful gamers in MLB then

RTJ: Had a dialogue with a buddy final week about batter splits versus right- and left-handed pitching. Why do some gamers have worse (extra completely different) splits than “average”? Is it an strategy challenge, is it one thing that’s innate? For somebody like Pete Alonso who has comparatively comparable outcomes versus either side – does it imply he underperforms towards lefties or overperforms towards righties or neither it’s simply random?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s in all probability a combination of the 2

Ben Clemens: as to the primary query

Ben Clemens: I’m certain that a few of it’s innate, and that a few of ti modifications

Ben Clemens: Sorry for my gradual response time immediately, by the best way

Ben Clemens: I’m feelnig a bit beneath the climate and simply shifting slowly

Jazzy: I get that Ohtani is Ohtani, however am I loopy in pondering that Wander Franco (at present +2500 at my native sportsbook) may find yourself taking dwelling the AL MVP as the most effective participant on what may be a traditionally nice staff in a loaded division?

Ben Clemens: You usually are not, that appears very cheap to me

Broken Bat: 2 guys getting it finished.. Keller of Buc’s and Eflin of Rays. Tossing away salaries, who would you need for 2024-2025?

Ben Clemens: Ooof….. in all probability Eflin, however I’m possibly too down on Keller

Farhan: What is an affordable expectation on return for a Joey Bart commerce?

Ben Clemens: depth and lottery tickets I feel

sharps: Are the Nationals out-performing expectations or did I simply assume they have been going to be utter trash?

Ben Clemens: I feel they’re, yeah

Pat: Speaking of Baez, his Okay% is down round 18%, however, he has became a Larry Bowa sort energy hitter..ISO is at .090..Is this a case of Detroit attempting to assist him, however, solely making issues worse by taking him away from what he does nicely?

Ben Clemens: I undoubtedly assume that

Ben Clemens: Maybe with a aspect of getting old, however Baez has all the time been actually good at making probably the most out of dangerous swings

Ben Clemens: so taking away the dangerous swings doesn’t assist him as a lot because it helps many plyaers

JC: This complete chat: what are your ideas on X? Answer: eh, I’m not fearful.

Ben Clemens: People fear an excessive amount of!

Ben Clemens: I feel that there are applicable quantities of worries however like

Ben Clemens: ‘Francisco Lindor is awful’

Ben Clemens: no he’s not

Ben Clemens: like, c’mon, everyone knows he’s not

Very importantGonzoGore: Not random on splits imo. The method hitters see the ball. Not simply the LHP or RHP. Also launch level can have an effect on this vastly. All batters see the ball otherwise

Ben Clemens: Oh it’s very clearly not random for pitchers

Ben Clemens: launch level and arsenal matter a ton

Ben Clemens: since hitters by definition see a ton of several types of pitchers, although, theirs could be tougher to parse

Ben Clemens: I agree that it’s not all random

Ben Clemens: But I do assume that it takes a very long time to tease out sign from noise

Ben Clemens: as a result of there actually is loads of noise

Captainjameshook: No q only a thanks for the taverns rec. Smash hit after we found out what we have been doing

Ben Clemens: I’m actually glad you prefer it!

Ben Clemens: Remains one among my favourite video games

Phil: Who ARE you fearful about Ben this season?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, enjoyable one. Javy Baez I’d say, for certain

Ben Clemens: loads of pitchers

Ben Clemens: I”m keen to consider pitchers are getting worse far more rapidly than hitters

Ben Clemens: Trout, simply because I’m afraid that point is catching as much as him

RMR: With De La Crurz and CES crushing AAA and Votto on the mend, what would your Reds infield seem like on July 1st?

Ben Clemens: It actually depends upon who’s keen and or in a position to transfer to the outfield

Ben Clemens: But I feel I’d need McLain 2b, DLC ss, Steer 3b, and I assume India DH/OF/and many others

Ben Clemens: Votto is simply actually an ungainly factor, like, ideally I’d need CES at first

Ben Clemens: however it’s simply so robust to bench Votto

Ben Clemens: hopefully India performs a imply LF/RF

Ben Clemens: after which all of it works

petey bienel: dom smith’s iso is at pete grey ranges. severely. grey .043, smith .038.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, poor Dom, however energy hitting is simply not his factor

Phil: Re: Afraid of trout within the sense he’s not a real expertise 175 WRC+ participant and only a regular nice hitter?

Ben Clemens: Exactly this

Guest: Odds the Phillies decide up Scott Kingery’s choices?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s simply 0

Ben Clemens: They’re 14, 15, 16

Guest2: How a lot do you assume the Rangers offense goes to regress after this ridiculous begin?

Ben Clemens: For what it’s value, we mission them to have the Eighth-best offense the remainder of the best way

Ben Clemens: possibly seventh, actually, relying on park results

Ben Clemens: in order that they’re not the braves/dodgers/astros/jays, however within the nexts tier

Appa Yip Yip: Do you ever take into consideration how we’d discuss Mookie Betts if he didn’t play within the period or Trout after which Ohtani?

Ben Clemens: Mookie is so nice

Ben Clemens: He’s in all probability underrated

Ben Clemens: in that individuals speak in regards to the dodgers as a staff with a bunch of stars, as a substitute of a staff with Mookie Betts after which some stars

Ben Clemens: It was chilly! And actually, actually enjoyable

wally whitehurst: what’s your response if edwin diaz makes it again this season?

Ben Clemens: I’ll simply be amazed and blissful

Guest: what do you make of Masataka Yoshida’s scorching begin, do you assume it’s sustainable or that his protection will get higher

Ben Clemens: I’m a little bit skeptical that his protection is all of the sudden gonna get nice, however possibly higher than it’s now?

Ben Clemens: Fenway LF is a superb place to cover him anyway

Ben Clemens: I do consider in his offense although

Crane: How tough is it to commerce a participant with a participant possibility? Like is the return decrease than anticipated or can you place in one thing like money concerns if the participant ends the season on the IL/picks up the participant possibility as a result of regression?

Ben Clemens: I do assume that PTBNL stuff occurs pretty usually. I additionally assume it’s rather a lot simpler to commerce gamers with participant choices within the offseason, when there’s time to speak to the participant about it first

Ben Clemens: Arenado had an choose out when he received traded, they usually mainly negotiated a brand new contract earlier than doing the deal

Ben Clemens: You can’t precisely try this on July 29

Ben Clemens: Also, it’s simpler if the choice is both sure to get picked up or sure to get declined, in fact

Danny: The Os are an enigma.  Seems like the usual take is Mullins+Adley+bullpen+luck=revenue, however there needs to be extra occurring.  It appears just like the beginning pitching has been rather a lot higher than marketed, although nonetheless not precisely reliable.  No?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I feel that they’ve proven the abililty to get rather a lot out of their pitching

Ben Clemens: And yeah, nice hitters

Anon21: Soroka despatched again to AAA after two poor begins. Do you assume he’s going to determine it out, be taught his new mechanics, and get again to being a good rotation possibility, or is the start of the tip?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume it’s knowable proper now

Ben Clemens: I watched one among his two begins, and yeah, he didn’t look good

Ben Clemens: time will inform on this one. I’m actually rooting for him, however these ‘will a pitcher come back from injury’ offers are simply crapshoots at occasions

Ben Clemens: significantly together with his extremely lengthy damage historical past

Ben Clemens: Okay, I’m gonna name it a wrap for immediately, sorry for a brief chat. Talk to you all subsequent week