2:00 |
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
|
2:00 |
: Let’s speak about some baseball, and actually I hope to speak about playoff races
|
2:00 |
: Obviously Gunnar Henderson has been nice. But ought to Orioles followers be involved long-term in regards to the cratering stroll fee within the second half? Or simply take the XBH’s and shut up about it?
|
2:01 |
: Yeah, roughly the second factor
|
2:02 |
: He appears to be fairly good with regards to plate self-discipline and controlling the strike zone in the long run. We’re not speaking about Keston Hiura right here or something.
|
2:02 |
: I feel it will paste okay:
|
2:02 |
: That’s 15-game swinging strike fee, rolling throughout his season, and eh, I’m not too anxious. He appears like an ideal hitter to me
|
2:03 |
: I dunno if you happen to watched both of Kershaw’s final two outings, however Hard To Watch is a euphemism. I’ve felt fortunate to root for him for a very long time, but when that is all he can do (excessive 80s with unhealthy command), then I don’t see how pitching him helps anybody. Maybe he simply wants extra relaxation, perhaps he may even determine an Eck/Smoltz kinda denouement, however beginning along with his stuff is a playoff catastrophe ready to occur, and one he shouldn’t/doesn’t deserve to soak up, imo. What do you assume occurs right here?
|
2:04 |
: I’ve not watched them, however this appears like a scalding sizzling take to me
|
2:04 |
: It’s two begins
|
2:04 |
: My guess is that he’ll find yourself overexposed within the playoffs as a result of that’s how Dave Roberts likes to handle
|
2:04 |
: But everywhere by way of well being and velocity appears like Kershaw of latest classic to me
|
2:05 |
: he was fairly superb in June, I feel they are going to most likely attempt to get him lots of relaxation down the stretch and hope that comes again
|
2:05 |
: Who do you may have taking the NL West and AL East crowns?
|
2:05 |
: Let’s begin with NL West, and uh… Dodgers
|
2:05 |
: however presuming that was a typo, I’ll go Astros and Orioles
|
2:06 |
: gotta follow my preseason predictions, but in addition these appear to be the percentages on picks
|
2:06 |
: our group projections actually hate the O’s, they’ve all yr
|
2:07 |
: and even they provide them an 80% probability of successful the division
|
2:07 |
: two video games in hand and the tiebreaker is a ton
|
2:07 |
: Cedric Mullins has gone from a Cutter/Slider killer in his 2021 30/30 season to a Sinker/Splitter killer in 2023. Do most gamers keep persistently good at hitting sure pitches or do this stuff fluctuate by a profession.
|
2:07 |
: Particularly by linear weights pitch kind values, they fluctuate a ton
|
2:08 |
: for kinda the explanation you may count on – if you happen to BABIP .400 in opposition to cutters one yr, your numbers will look fairly good
|
2:09 |
: I attempt to not learn an excessive amount of into these, and focus extra on swinging strike charges or arduous contact charges or issues like that by pitch kind
|
2:09 |
: In Mullins’s case particularly, he simply appears good at hitting every thing to me. I don’t have him as a fastball or offspeed hunter particularly, only a well-rounded hitter who can take what the pitcher offers him
|
2:09 |
: I’m curious what it’s like as an up and down main leaguer. You make much more than a mean American however not sufficient to totally retire after your enjoying days are over and most of your coworkers (and maybe a lot of your folks) make much more than you. You presumably have bills (journey and coaching associated) that will make no sense for most individuals to spend on. Short of interviewing a significant leaguers you struck me as a most insightful particular person to ask about this.
|
2:09 |
: I ponder about this lots
|
2:10 |
: So in that sense, perhaps I’m the fitting particular person to ask
|
2:10 |
: I feel that it’s kinda hopeless to count on these guys to check themselves to the typical American. People unavoidably evaluate themselves to their friends, and the peer group for an up-and-down bullpen man is main league gamers
|
2:11 |
: That stated, the percentages are actually good that you just LOVE baseball if you happen to make it that far
|
2:11 |
: So the trail of least resistance is to finish up doing baseball-related issues
|
2:12 |
: I guess the bills factor messes individuals up, however the ‘all my friends are rich’ factor doesn’t really feel like an enormous deal to me, to be trustworthy
|
2:12 |
: I’ve been on either side of that divide at numerous factors and eh, the friendships which might be largely about evaluating standing don’t final very lengthy
|
2:12 |
: the individuals you actually get together with, you follow and hey, in the event that they’re doing properly, good for them
|
2:12 |
: Bringing the household for what is going to hopefully be Waino’s #200 however extra possible will likely be an early hook adopted by 3-4 innings within the child space earlier than we go house!
|
2:13 |
: Going to milestone video games is so cool, I hope you see it
|
2:13 |
: I additionally hope so for Wainwright’s sake
|
2:13 |
: It’s been a nightmare 10 days for the Cubs. Are they toast?
|
2:13 |
: I needed to put in writing about this, however I simply saved arising with discuss radio degree takes
|
2:14 |
: very long time listener, first time caller, the Cubs won’t ever rating a run agian
|
2:14 |
: that sort of factor
|
2:14 |
: Let me simply say this: they should get busy
|
2:14 |
: They have six simple video games arising, Pirates and Rockies at house
|
2:15 |
: If they go 3-3 or worse, I feel they’re cooked, as a result of they end with 3 in ATL and three in MIlwaukee
|
2:15 |
: Delusional Padres fan right here who can’t stroll away. The Pads have a very simple schedule ROS. If (BIG if) the can win out, and get to 84-78, what do you assume the possibilities are they squeeze within the final wild card spot?
|
2:16 |
: okay so I feel this roughly eliminates the Giants, for the reason that Pads would sweep them, getting them to 77 losses
|
2:16 |
: It’d additionally give the Padres the tiebreaker
|
2:17 |
: Alright that is gonna take me a second to have a look at all of the tiebreakers however I wish to, enjoyable query
|
2:18 |
: they don’t have the breaker in opposition to anybody within the race aside from the Marlins, except I’m misunderstanding it. So that implies that 3 of the DBacks/Cubs/Marlins/Reds want to complete with 79 losses or extra
|
2:19 |
: that principally means having a dropping document the remainder of the way in which for these groups
|
2:20 |
: so let’s name {that a} 40% proposition for every group
|
2:20 |
: I feel that works out to there being an 18% probability or so of constructing the playoffs if the Padres win out
|
2:20 |
: not too unhealthy!
|
2:20 |
: Is Mozeliak already strolling again the “we’re getting 3 starters” factor? Sure looks as if it primarily based on his feedback from this previous weekend.
|
2:20 |
: It undoubtedly feels that manner
|
2:20 |
: I feel that was a rash factor to say within the first palce to be trustworthy
|
2:20 |
: Got a 2:05pm lineup lock query so your promptness is tremendous appreciated. Trying to battle bus my manner again to 4th place. I’m solely separated by 3 runs to maneuver up 2 spots, and some stolen bases. I want some lineup assist, do I’m going with Yelich this week or go together with Blackmon?
|
2:20 |
: d go together with Yelich
|
2:21 |
: though I’m undecided if this 2:05 lineup lock is EST, during which case sorry
|
2:21 |
: Just happening the cue in time order in the intervening time
|
2:21 |
: six away video games for the Rockies this week
|
2:21 |
: Can the Dodgers really duct tape a rotation collectively for the playoffs? How do you see them doing it?
|
2:22 |
: I feel they’ll handle it in a stereotypically ugly manner, with a ton of bullpen-y video games and a few ugly blowups papered over by the nice offense
|
2:22 |
: They actually should not have sufficient starters
|
2:22 |
: Sheehan is gonna need to do some WORK out of the pen
|
2:22 |
: Any sport the place Yordan Alvarez performs LF, Yanier Diaz ought to be DH if he’s not catching… Right? Help me perceive why Diaz has been on the bench so incessantly. He looks as if a legit energy bat to me primarily based on outcomes and statcast information
|
2:23 |
: I feel that’s moooostly true?
|
2:23 |
: I’d prefer to get Brantley again within the groove earlier than the playoffs if attainable
|
2:24 |
: and resting Diaz most likely has good knock-on results long-term. But that’s assuming he wants the remainder as a result of the Astros plan on utilizing him closely within the playoffs, and that’s not clear to me in any respect given his utilization all yr
|
2:24 |
: if what you’re saying is that the Astros are underutilizing him, i imply, yeah
|
2:24 |
: it’s foolish
|
2:25 |
: Elite stroll/strike out stats. Do you may have any scouting stories on this undrafted over achiever?
|
2:25 |
: just about nothing, tbh
|
2:25 |
: He’s the sort of man Eric will get the inside track on each offseason
|
2:26 |
: the one I consider, as a result of I’m a Cardinals fan, is Kodi Whitley. I’d by no means heard of this man after which BAM, each public prospect author received the look all of sudden and he was a recognized amount earlier than he debuted
|
2:27 |
: so I’d say watch this house (FanGraphs) for offseason updates)
|
2:27 |
: Should Guardians followers be optimistic following this yr given the spectacular efficiency of their younger pitchers (and the returns of Bieber and McKenzie), or extra involved given their offensive regressions?
|
2:27 |
: I feel pessimistic, as a result of Jose Ramirez is one other yr older they usually went beneath .500 in a nasty division
|
2:28 |
: that stated, I’m excited to see whether or not Josh Naylor can lastly put issues collectively for a full yr
|
2:28 |
: Honestly, this yr may rely
|
2:28 |
: A Cleveland hitter with precise energy? It’s perhaps true
|
2:28 |
: after just a few years of the present playoff setup, how do you prefer it?
|
2:29 |
: I feel general I prefer it
|
2:29 |
: the worst division winner getting punished is an efficient characteristic in my view
|
2:29 |
: I don’t just like the flattening of the third wild card/semi-contender house, and its impact on the deadline
|
2:29 |
: I’d prefer to see one thing modified there, maybe a later commerce deadline
|
2:29 |
: But the three-game collection are actually enjoyable
|
2:29 |
: and I feel an acceptable handicap for WC groups
|
2:30 |
: WSox fan right here, however I will likely be following the Cubs for the playoffs. Does their pitching stack up okay for the playoffs? Who strains up 1-4? (Their lineup should not have any holes)
|
2:31 |
: I assume Stroman will likely be able to go by then, however I assume that’s not 100%
|
2:31 |
: Steele/Hendricks/Taillon really feel like locks to me. I’m guessing they’re between Wicks and Stroman for that final spot
|
2:32 |
: I’d have Hendricks behind Wicks, personally, and on the bubble, however the group appears increased on Hendricks htan me, and I’m certain that his longevity issues
|
2:32 |
: How does the Nationals’ rebuild look to you because the season winds down?
|
2:33 |
: Pretty good! I just like the indicators of life from Abrams, the prospects are wanting stable, I nonetheless sort of imagine in Luis Garcia
|
2:34 |
: If you assume the group goes to pour a bunch of cash into being good after they assume they’re prepared, a la Jayson Werth signaling a surge of their earlier cycle, I feel that subsequent yr will likely be crucial
|
2:34 |
: as a result of if the younger guys take a step ahead, you can begin seeing the groundwork are available proper after that
|
2:34 |
: How a lot do you count on lacking a whole season to harm my improvement? I’ll be 25 subsequent yr, and lots of my points are issues that primarily enhance with sport reps – can I nonetheless be a 30/30 (or 40/40) man?
|
2:34 |
: Sadly, lots
|
2:34 |
: I’m an enormous Cruz fan, however the reps clock actually issues
|
2:34 |
: and he’s simply working out of time
|
2:35 |
: Feels like individuals ought to be speaking extra about Ryan Noda. A rule 5 decide placing up a 130 wrc+ and over 2 WAR in solely 450 PAs. Nice work if you will get it
|
2:35 |
: I feel that the A’s are simply so miserable this yr that their success tales are going under-appreciated
|
2:35 |
: Is Yainer Diaz the most effective hitting backup in baseball historical past?
|
2:36 |
: I feel I’m gonna have to present that honor to Lou Gehrig
|
2:36 |
: baseball historical past goes again a good distance
|
2:36 |
: Who’s the most effective group within the AL? Seems like you may make a fairly first rate argument for nearly any of the possible playoff groups.
|
2:36 |
: I just like the Astros
|
2:36 |
: But yeah, it’s crowded at hte prime within the AL
|
2:36 |
: Are there any playoff matches you’re actually hoping to see?
|
2:36 |
: Dodgers Braves is enjoyable. But O’s/Rays once more can be nice
|
2:36 |
: I’ve cherished their collection this yr
|
2:37 |
: a texas showdown with Scherzer going through Verlander is now off the desk, that will have been up there in any other case
|
2:37 |
ugly. For 2024, is that this a purchase low man who’s an adjustment from exploding, or merely a lotto ticket?
: Lot of blended alerts with Elly…his SwStr and z contact are at the very least sneezing distance from common, and his Okay fee is encouragingly about what it was in AAA, however his GB% and O-Zone% are |
2:37 |
: I’m on an adjustment away from exploding simply due to his age and instruments
|
2:37 |
: I dunno the place he’s gonna be valued in fantasy, although. I may think about him being a extremely excessive decide due to the hype, at which level the equation doesn’t work that properly
|
2:38 |
: Looking at two very younger SS, who’re you extra inspired by and purchase into long-term: CJ Abrams or Volpe?
|
2:38 |
: Volpe by a good distance
|
2:39 |
: I feel you must mission an excessive amount of enchancment in Abrams’s protection nonetheless
|
2:39 |
: he exhibits flashes, however I’m not in on it but
|
2:40 |
: and I like Volpe’s ceiling extra as a hitter. Abrams feels a bit extra capped to me offensively due to his method
|
2:40 |
: That stated I is perhaps letting my preseason view of Abrams creep into this analysis an excessive amount of
|
2:40 |
: It’s a great one to look again into after the yr
|
2:41 |
: I used to be fairly down on Abrams due to, properly, the arc of his profession
|
2:41 |
: however this can be a actually encouraging season for him, little doubt
|
2:41 |
: All else being equal, would two hitters, one with a .250/.350/.450 line and the opposite with a .300/.350/.450 line, have the identical or completely different wRC+ values?
|
2:41 |
: most likely the identical ish
|
2:41 |
: Ben, Davis Schneider’s wRC+ has dropped practically 60 factors (to 193) because you wrote about him. Why did you jinx him (as a result of there’s clearly no different rationalization)? Also, over/below 125 for his finish of season wRC+?
|
2:42 |
: Over! however yeah, haha, whoops
|
2:42 |
: Am I simply being a very emotional fan after I argue the most important mistake the Jays have made in latest reminiscence was failing to present Anthopolous full management, which ended his tenure in Toronto?
|
2:42 |
: No I feel that’s most likely proper
|
2:42 |
: clearly he’s fairly good at it
|
2:43 |
: and I don’t have every other obvious issues to level out
|
2:43 |
: I feel I will need to have blended up a number of the tiebreak conditions
|
2:43 |
: that’s what makes this math arduous
|
2:43 |
: if they’ve the tiebreak over two groups, then it jumps up lots
|
2:43 |
: and I perhaps didn’t even implement the primary one proper
|
2:43 |
: I ought to create a ZiPS of my very own
|
2:43 |
: (observe: undoubtedly not doing that, can also’t do this)
|
2:43 |
: Mariners Rangers combating for WC3 with 7 out of their final 10 video games in opposition to one another. Just like we thought at on the commerce deadline.
|
2:43 |
: It’s gonna be superior
|
2:44 |
: i totally count on to be gaslit by Mozeliak this offseason that dakota hudson made enhancements this yr to warrant a beginning spot in ’24
|
2:44 |
: An annual ritual
|
2:44 |
: Why aren’t peripheral stats for hitters not usually introduced up by award voters in comparison with pitcher peripherals? Is it as a result of a hitter can nonetheless achieve success with out main the league in xwOBA?
|
2:45 |
: Eh, I feel it’d be very bizarre to convey up anticipated statistics in an awards dialogue, personally
|
2:45 |
: the pitcher peripherals we’re utilizing nonetheless care about what really occurred on the sector, you nkow?
|
2:45 |
: like, they decide and select which occasions to present extra weight to
|
2:45 |
: however I feel the Isaac Paredes of all of it makes it kinda claer that once we can measure the outcomes properly, we should always focus extra on these outcomes
|
2:46 |
: You converse of pennant races and yesterday proved once more why baseball is the best sport. 2 video games with large significance have been in the identical spot. Jays led the Red Sox and Rays led the Orioles by 1 run with 2 outs and no one on the las of the ninth. Devers homered to tie and the O’s get a double from Frazier to tie, then a success from Rutschman with 2 outs within the tenth to tie it once more. One of the most effective video games I’ve watched and theintensity of the gang was off the charts.
|
2:46 |
: You need to find it irresistible
|
2:46 |
: What are your ideas on the orioles large win over the rays yesterday?
|
2:46 |
: What an superior collection general, playoff races are actually enjoyable
|
2:46 |
: The Pirates are ONE sport beneath .500 for the reason that all-star break and have gained 4 of their final 6 collection. They began ridiculously sizzling then went embarrassingly south and people two streaks of play have been lined extensively by the media. Then the narrative was frozen. The undeniable fact that they’ve managed to go .500 for nearly half a season since has been ignored. I assume my query is, why?
|
2:46 |
: Teams which might be lifeless within the water for playoff races principally get their information ignored within the second half
|
2:46 |
: it’s not distinctive to the Pirates
|
2:47 |
: The Nats are 30-30 for the reason that break, the Mets are 27-32, Detroit is 31-29
|
2:48 |
: I haven’t actually heard a lot about any of these groups pulling out of a tailspin both
|
2:48 |
: It’s simply, eh, boring
|
2:48 |
: With the expanded playoffs and lack of sellers on the commerce deadline, we want mlb growth. Also the hole between coaching on the highest ranges is shrinking
|
2:48 |
: Yeah, I fully agree with this
|
2:48 |
: do you assume the royals will ever be adequate to use the truth that they’ve a pennies on the greenback Bobby Witt Jr.? He’s so good however they’re so unhealthy
|
2:48 |
: They’re simply too unhealthy
|
2:49 |
: Do you assume there’s an opportunity Wyatt Langford will get known as up within the subsequent week or two? Could be a bench asset within the playoffs
|
2:49 |
: I do, and that feels wild
|
2:49 |
: however they’re clearly paving the trail for it
|
2:50 |
: Stadium state of affairs on the way in which to being settled. Do you assume the subsequent mlb growth groups have a shot at successful early like vegas golden knights?
|
2:50 |
: It actually depends upon the way in which they arrange the growth draft
|
2:50 |
: my guess is that growth groups are going to be simply okay in baseball, organizations are simply so massive and dev time is so lengthy in comparison with different sports
|
2:51 |
: however hockey is the closest to baseball in that sense so perhaps!
|
2:51 |
: I simply haven’t given a lot thought to it
|
2:51 |
: Just wish to throw out that David Ross has a number of seasons with a wRC+ increased than Yainer’s this season so perhaps we pump the breaks a little bit.
|
2:51 |
: Nope, let’s enshrine him now
|
2:51 |
: He takes a cope with an early choose out, proper? Seems like he may signal for extra after he comes again from TJS
|
2:51 |
: I imply, I wouldn’t
|
2:52 |
: there’s simply not a lot distinction between 400 million and 500 million to me
|
2:52 |
: Game clock has sped up video games, does this imply we will revoke the three batter rule?
|
2:52 |
: I imply…. I don’t see why
|
2:52 |
: mid-inning pitching adjustments suck
|
2:53 |
: An argument in opposition to MLB growth: isn’t expertise already skinny? There are already 4-5 groups which might be jokes from day 1 of every season
|
2:53 |
: I feel that has lots to do with these groups not placing in a legit effort
|
2:53 |
: the quantity of nasty reduction arms is an enormous argument in favor of growth to me
|
2:54 |
: Yesterday I found Cal Raleigh is twenty fifth in WAR for place gamers, third amongst catchers, and forward of Adley. So I went again and checked and he wasn’t on the Trade Value record anyplace, at the same time as an honorable point out! Is this only a sizzling streak? Or is the business not as excessive on him?
|
2:54 |
: Little little bit of each, little little bit of me being too low, little little bit of a mistrust of catcher worth that’s so closely reliant on framing
|
2:55 |
: let’s simply say that I’m not brief on Mariners followers who’re looking at this record after I”m constructing it
|
2:55 |
: I feel that his age additionally performs a task, however yeah, I’d have him on there if I did it once more
|
2:55 |
: Jays, Rangers and Mariners would all choose the Twins to the Rays/O’s, proper? Would any NL WC group wish to play the Phils over MIL?
|
2:55 |
: I imply, perhaps the final day of the season?
|
2:55 |
: however it’s fairly vital to truly make the playoffs
|
2:56 |
: Ohtani can’t get $400 million if he’s only a DH, can he?
|
2:56 |
: If he have been solely ever going to DH once more, no
|
2:56 |
: however presumably he’s planning on returning to two-way play after rehabbing from damage. I’m actually curious to see what his market will likely be like and in addition terrified to mission a contract for him
|
2:56 |
: Must be good to be Ben Clemens wealthy.
|
2:56 |
: I imply, contingent on you already having 400 million {dollars}, 100 million {dollars} shouldn’t be a lot
|
2:56 |
: going from 0 to 100 million is clearly large
|
2:57 |
: How do you assume the free agent pitching market performs out? Ohtani’s not an enormous issue, Urias ought to be carried out, Nola has not been himself, and Snell’s peripherals usually are not near his ERA. Feels like somebody like Giolito goes to do significantly better than most individuals would count on simply due to lack of provide.
|
2:57 |
: 100% agreed with this
|
2:58 |
: There are simply lots of groups that want starters yearly
|
2:58 |
: The wild card races in each leagues are nice. Who do have lacking the lower?
|
2:59 |
: I assume I’ll go together with SF/CIN/Miami on the NL facet (actually shut for me, I needed to place the Marlins in), and Texas on the AL facet
|
2:59 |
: But that is pure guesswork, to be clear
|
2:59 |
: Help us Obi-Wan Clemon-Obi, you’re our solely hope!
|
3:00 |
: Gotta throw this one in as a result of I’m quickly nearing a conclusion to right now’s chat, gotta go make lunch after which maintain writing about Josh Hader
|
3:00 |
: How do guys like Ragans and Y. Diaz slip by the cracks? Im certain it occurs on a regular basis, Paredes is one other instance, however groups simply throw within the towel too early? Or, are different groups simply playing and have the enjoying time accessible? I dont assume anybody was surprised on the time of the commerce by the packages.
|
3:00 |
: Yeah, I feel it’s simply groups dropping by the wayside too early, but in addition, we all know that gamers typically take a very long time to show their true expertise. The odds of somebody figuring out are decrease if they’ve had a nasty yr or two, however not zero
|
3:01 |
: it’d be one factor if a group have been systematically mis-evaluating these guys (cough Cardinals within the mid-2010’s cough), however I dunno, you’re gonna miss one or two right here or there even if you happen to’re doing every thing proper
|
3:01 |
: Are the Mariners able to supply a aggressive deal to Ohtani? They look compelling from a expertise standpoint(pitching depth + Julio)
|
3:01 |
: I feel so. They’re my guess for the place he finally ends up proper now
|
3:01 |
What’s your feeling on him, Baty, the infant Mets, and many others? |
3:02 |
: I’m nonetheless excessive on Baty, perhaps as a result of I’ve let ZiPS discuss me into it
|
3:02 |
: I feel Alvarez is nice, after all
|
3:02 |
: Mauricio? I imply…. I dunno, you will get as excited as you need. I’m not blown away, however it’s good that he’s not falling on his face
|
3:03 |
: baseball expertise worldwide is in any respect time highs. The hole between AAA, Korean, Japanese leagues and the majors is narrower than ever. The coaching methods and expertise that colleges, minors, and personal instruction have, plus all of the movies and information on-line, make it simpler than ever to get higher
|
3:03 |
: Organizational roster shrinking is going on at a time when mlb rosters ought to be increasing. Concussion protocols, inning limits, and fashionable damage therapy nearly requires 28 man rosters yr spherical.
|
3:03 |
: I agree with each of those
|
3:03 |
: and on that observe
|
3:03 |
: I gotta run and begin heating lunch up
|
3:03 |
: have an ideal week everybody, and benefit from the playoff races
|
Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He will be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com