Can Matt Vierling Flip Hard Luck Into Hard Hits?

Matt Vierling’s 2022 with the Phillies was a combined bag. He began off slowly sufficient to benefit an choice to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in May earlier than rejoining the membership with a bang in June within the type of a game-winning pinch-hit dwelling run off Josh Hader in Milwaukee. Over the remainder of the common season, he struggled to develop a lot of a sample of offensive manufacturing whereas splitting heart subject duties with first Odúbel Herrera after which Brandon Marsh, and filling in within the nook outfield – and even in restricted motion at first, second, and third – as wanted.

When all was stated and performed, the righty managed solely a .246/.297/.351 batting line, good for a meager .285 wOBA and 81 wRC+; Vierling’s 110 wRC+ off lefties was negated by a 63 mark in opposition to same-handed pitchers. The defensive metrics don’t agree solely, however he graded as under common – to totally different levels – by DRS, UZR, and OAA. He in the end got here in at -0.1 WAR. His versatility, 97th-percentile dash pace, success in opposition to lefties, and skill to defend extra capably than Kyle Schwarber or Nick Castellanos, although, didn’t go unappreciated, and Vierling earned himself a spot on every of the Phillies’ postseason rosters, ultimately even beginning two World Series video games.

Beneath the inconsistent manufacturing, Vierling’s batted ball profile instructed a a lot totally different story. His anticipated stats have been a way more strong .279 xBA, .331 xOBP, .408 xSLG, and .327 xwOBA. That places him means up within the 93rd percentile for xBA, between Jeff McNeil and Shohei Ohtani; the 68th for xOBP, even with Matt Chapman; the fifty fifth for xSLG, the identical percentile rank as Luis Arraez, Wander Franco, and José Ramírez; and sixty fourth for xwOBA, according to Luis Robert Jr. and Seiya Suzuki. That was because of some severe success persistently administering laborious contact – his 47.1% hard-hit proportion in 2022 ranked within the eighty fifth percentile, and his 91.2 mph common exit velocity positioned him within the 86th, even with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Corey Seager:

It’s not simply that his general batted ball profile outperformed his manufacturing that means his bat is perhaps greater than succesful to be within the lineup every single day – it’s additionally that the hole between his anticipated and precise manufacturing was much more pronounced in opposition to righties. Remember that 63 wRC+ cut up? That was because of a irritating .217/.275/.305 batting line and a .260 wOBA, which ranked 182nd out of 204 righties on righties. But Vierling was making good contact off of those right-handers – ok for a forty five.6% hard-hit price and an anticipated line of .265/.320/.392. His .315 xwOBA ranked 73rd in that very same group of 204.

The situation was that he wasn’t getting a lot for his laborious hitting. Even on these pitches he did hit with an exit velocity of 95-plus mph off of right-handers, he managed only a .521 slugging proportion and .337 wOBA in comparison with a .726 xSLG and .488 xwOBA. The league as a complete loved a .949 slugging and .604 wOBA on that sort of contact off right-handers:

So what occurred? Was he drilling laborious contact into the bottom an excessive amount of? There was a few of that, although he wouldn’t take again the Baltimore chop-off in opposition to Toronto in September because the Phillies clung to a Wild Card spot. Although launch angle is accounted for within the anticipated stats as effectively, Vierling’s 5.0% barrel price was a good bit decrease than you would possibly anticipate from somebody with as excessive a hard-hit price. But there was an excellent serving of unhealthy luck combined in there, too – even on barrels, his .921 wOBA trailed his 1.187 xwOBA by 266 factors in opposition to righties. His general 1.079 wOBA on all barrels was 151 factors shy of his 1.230 xwOBA:

Even contemplating the comparatively low barrel price, that’s a far totally different batted ball profile in opposition to same-handed hitting than a bottom-of-the-roster platoon bat, and after arriving in Detroit within the deal that despatched Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens to Philadelphia in January, he’s being handled as far more than that. A.J. Hinch has began Vierling in proper subject in six of the Tigers’ first seven video games (together with three in opposition to right-handed starters), penciling him in on the high of the lineup 4 instances and within the three spot as soon as. In these six video games, Vierling has 9 hard-hit balls on 16 balls in play, together with seven out of 10 in opposition to righties, six of which have gone for hits.

On Monday at Hinch’s outdated workplace in Houston, Vierling had what might need been a small coming-out occasion as greater than a platoon participant. He tallied 4 hits, all off right-handers, capping the night off with a 108.0-mph game-winning two-run homer within the eleventh inning off the Astros’ Héctor Neris. Reviewing the January commerce, my colleague Eric Longenhagen identified that Vierling is “especially adept at barreling down-and-in offerings,” and so he was on Monday:

Innings earlier, he made a defensive assertion by preserving a tie with one of many first five-star catches of the 2023 season, a fast sliding seize on an inside-out, bases-loaded line drive off the bat of Mauricio Dubón that hung up for all of two.9 seconds:

The knock on Vierling’s outfield play final yr was that his response instances have been weak – regardless of that, Vierling’s dash pace is elite, his route-running graded as above-average, and his arm energy had him within the eightieth percentile of outfielders. Of course, one catch tells us hardly something – loads of not-five-star fielders have stumbled into five-star catches – however we might excuse the Tigers for hoping it’s an indication that there’s a stronger defender someplace in there.

Given common taking part in time, a participant with Vierling’s hard-hit capabilities and pace might have been a 20-20 risk even when rule modifications hadn’t simply doubled early-season stolen base charges from final yr, and even when his group hadn’t simply moved in and shortened the outfield partitions in his dwelling ballpark. The full impression of all of these modifications stays to be seen – and it’s nonetheless fairly unlikely that Comerica Park, which was the hardest dwelling run park in baseball final yr, will probably be as homer-friendly as Citizens Bank in Philly, which was fifth-best for dwelling run hitters. And there are nonetheless points to handle in his strategy – his 6.2% stroll price since he received to the majors has but to succeed in the double-digit charges he was recording within the higher ranges of the minors. But Vierling ought to have higher luck coming his means, and if he’s capable of hold hitting the ball as laborious as typically as final yr, he has a very stable probability of outperforming the below-average projections a lot of the methods granted him this offseason.