Friday, November 1

College World Series Preview, Bracket 2

Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News / USA TODAY NETWORK

GAAAAAAH COLLEGE BASEBALL! No intro. Part 1 of my Men’s College World Series preview is right here. Go learn it if you happen to haven’t. The second installment is beneath and delivers a quick overview of the 4 contestants I didn’t handle final time: Their document, how they obtained right here, and a quick précis on a key participant, in addition to a little bit of trivia you’ll be able to pull out to impress your mates or use as an icebreaker at a bar. LET’S ROCK AND ROLL.

No. 1 Wake Forest
Record: 52-10 (22-7 ACC; Won ACC Atlantic common season, eradicated in semifinals of convention match)
Path to Omaha: No. 1 general seed, No. 1 seed in Winston-Salem Regional (3-0, def. George Mason 2x, Maryland); Won Winston-Salem Super Regional vs. Alabama 2-0

To name this staff a buzzsaw could be an understatement. The Demon Deacons usually are not solely undefeated within the match, they gained these 5 video games by a mixed rating of 75-16. And these weren’t cupcakes they smashed; Alabama has been one of many hottest groups within the nation since former head coach Brad Bohannon was fired for his involvement in a playing scandal. Maryland was a monster by Big Ten requirements and Wake put 21 runs on the board in opposition to them. Wake hasn’t misplaced a weekend sequence all 12 months, and swept top-10 nationwide seeds Clemson and Miami within the common season.

Key Number: 0.73.

Wake Forest’s staff ERA, 2.84, will not be the important thing quantity, and that’s as a result of it’s extra spectacular in context. Having the bottom ERA in Division I is nice, however when Tennessee isn’t any. 2 and Virginia and Oral Roberts are within the prime 10, whoop-dee-doo, proper? Well, that 2.84 is about three quarters of a run decrease than some other staff’s ERA. Only six different groups have a staff ERA beneath 4.00. And it’s not like Wake is nearly protection; the Demon Deacons are additionally third in Division I in each runs and OBP, and sixth in slugging share.

Better Know a Player: Junior RHP Rhett Lowder

It’s a crowded subject. Wake had two totally different place gamers publish an OBP over .500 and a SLG over .800, and the whole weekend rotation made first staff All-ACC. I needed to get inventive and decide somebody off the wall, however ultimately why not go along with the staff’s largest star? Lowder posted a 1.92 ERA and struck out 131 batters in 108 innings this season. He has a plus changeup and plus command and can most likely be the second or third school pitcher taken in subsequent month’s draft.

Trivia: The ACC is, what do we predict, the second-best baseball convention on the market? Well, earlier than Virginia gained the natty in 2015, the convention’s solely Men’s College World Series title got here courtesy of Wake Forest in 1955. That’s regardless of the ACC placing out quite a few powerhouse colleges; throughout that drought, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia, and North Carolina (twice) all performed for the title and fell on the closing hurdle. (Miami gained all of it in 1985, however that was earlier than the Hurricanes joined the ACC.) As an alumnus of an SEC college with an ACC archrival, and subsequently one thing of an SEC jingoist, I discovered that streak riotously entertaining and was very sorry to see it finish.

No. 8 Stanford
Record: 44-18 (23-7 Pac-12; Won Pac-12 common season, eradicated in semifinals of convention match)
Path to Omaha: No. 8 general seed, No. 1 seed in Stanford Regional (4-1, def. San Jose St., Cal State Fullerton, went 2-1 vs. Texas A&M); Won Stanford Super Regional vs. Texas 2-1.

Oh God, don’t make me clarify this.

Okay, I’m simply going to provide the final half-inning of Game 3 of the tremendous regional. The rating is tied 6-6, Stanford has already blown two three-run leads within the recreation and has been operating into outs all night. The inning earlier than, that they had a participant run into his personal bunted ball in honest territory, then had one other runner get doubled off making an attempt to tag up on cannon-armed Longhorns proper fielder Dylan Campbell. In equity, it was fairly the throw, on the cash, off the flawed foot, all the way in which throughout the sphere. If Bo Jackson is impressed, you recognize it’s good.

Anyway, with two outs, Pac-12 Player of the Year Alberto Rios got here to the plate and lined a ball off the left subject wall. Rios ran like hell out of the field, rounded first, after which slowed down when — for causes unclear to anybody watching — the whole Stanford staff poured out of the dugout. Rios, satisfied he’d simply hit a walk-off house run, tossed his helmet up within the air, slowed down, and virtually obtained thrown out at second.

I’ve by no means been to Sunken Diamond, however simply based mostly on what I noticed on TV, it seemed fairly darkish there. Maybe Stanford obtained swindled out of its lighting finances by Elizabeth Holmes. That little question performed a job in complicated Rios and his teammates (as did the principally white Pac-12 brand), and undoubtedly got here into play two batters later. Drew Bowser popped up the third pitch he noticed, and it stayed within the air perpetually. Long sufficient that anybody of 4 Texas defenders, together with Campbell, may have run it down. If any of them may see it.

Because that ball spent about six minutes within the air, and since there have been two outs, Rios was just about at house plate by the point the ball landed. Stanford went to Omaha, and Texas went again to an offseason of nightmares. Someone within the feedback of Part 1 stated this was the primary school baseball recreation they ever went to. I can not think about.

Key Number: 156.

That, in case you’ve been beneath a rock over the previous week, is the variety of pitches thrown by Stanford left-hander Quinn Mathews in his 16-strikeout full recreation in opposition to Texas in Game 2 of the tremendous regional. As you’d anticipate, there’s been Discourse on this topic, and right here’s my tackle the matter.

From the beginning of faculty baseball up till 10 or 15 years in the past, coaches didn’t give a crap about their pitchers’ long-term well being. Complete video games of 140 or extra pitches have been commonplace, as have been quick relaxation aid appearances. Kirk Saarloos, now TCU’s head coach, would shut on Fridays and begin on Sundays when he was at Cal State Fullerton, like a Gen-X Ellis Kinder. My favourite school baseball recreation of all time, the South Carolina-Virginia nationwide semifinal in 2011, featured some completely appalling pitcher utilization by each coaches.

But it’s gotten higher. Certain colleges and coaches obtained a repute for blowing prospects’ elbows and shoulders out. They obtained known as out within the media, and had that repute used in opposition to them by different coaches in recruiting. And finally, most of the worst offenders retired. It was nonetheless an actual downside as not too long ago as 2018, when Oregon State freshman Kevin Abel gained the College World Series by throwing a 129-pitch shutout on zero days’ relaxation within the decisive recreation in opposition to Arkansas.

I was a pitch depend hardliner, however my views have developed through the years for a couple of causes. First, pitcher well being is an inexact science. We don’t know if pitch no. 118 or 119 would be the one which results in a torn UCL, and it’s foolish to fake in any other case. Second, many of those pitchers will go professional in one thing aside from sports. If a possible first-round decide begins on two days’ relaxation, that’s a call that would value the child thousands and thousands of {dollars}. If that pitcher is a senior at a no. 4 seed out of the MAAC who’s going to go to go to pharmacy college within the fall, who cares? Third, these video games are themselves inherently significant. Most of the gamers concerned — even nearly all of those who do go professional — won’t ever take part in a much bigger recreation after leaving school. In order to win these video games, restricted further danger is typically acceptable. This final level can both be misplaced on or irrelevant to many observers who focus solely on skilled scouting and growth, and are often the largest pitch depend scolds.

Would I let Paul Skenes, the perfect pitcher in school baseball, throw 124 pitches in a five-run recreation in opposition to Tulane? Absolutely not. But it’s not the top of the world, and it’s so much higher than how LSU coach Jay Johnson managed his employees on his final journey to Omaha, with Arizona in 2016. I wasn’t wild about Texas utilizing Big 12 Pitcher of the Year Lucas Gordon out of the ‘pen against Stanford two days after he’d thrown 110 pitches. But for a brief aid outing, with the season on the road… simply don’t make a behavior out of it.

This isn’t Wayne Graham and Augie Garrido’s school baseball, in brief, and in lots of borderline circumstances I can at the very least see the coach’s logic.

But 156 pitches? In 2023, by a man who’s going to be a Day 2 decide? It’s indefensible, regardless of how heroically Mathews carried out beneath these situations.

Better Know a Player: Junior OF Alberto Rios

The man who virtually synthesized DeSean Jackson and Fred Merkle was completely the participant Stanford needed on the plate with the season on the road. In 61 video games this 12 months, Rios hit .387/.491/.715 with 18 house runs and 23 doubles. He’s additionally not afraid to grind; he was hit by 11 pitches this season, second on the staff. Having a 1.200 OPS is all of the extra spectacular when you think about that that is Rios’ third season at Stanford, and heading into 2023 he’d by no means even gotten a success. In his first two years with the staff, he’d performed in simply eight whole video games, going 0-for-7 with a stroll.

Trivia: The West Coast was once the nexus of faculty baseball, however historic powerhouses like Southern Cal, Cal State Fullerton, and Arizona State have fallen on exhausting instances as the cash and expertise has flowed towards the SEC. Nevertheless, Stanford is making its third straight journey to Omaha, and is the one returning staff from final 12 months’s Men’s College World Series.

No. 5 LSU
Record: 48-15 (19-10 SEC; Finished 2nd in SEC West, eradicated in third spherical of the SEC Tournament)
Path to Omaha: No. 5 general seed, No. 1 seed in Baton Rouge Regional (3-0, def. Tulane, Oregon St. 2x); Won Baton Rouge Super Regional 2-0 vs. Kentucky

LSU was the no. 1-ranked staff within the nation from the preseason till early May, on the energy of getting presumptive first general decide Dylan Crews within the outfield, in addition to the clear prime two incoming transfers: Skenes and third baseman Tommy White. This along with a powerful freshman class and a gaggle of returning veterans — together with Crews and first baseman Tre’ Morgan — who have been coming off a season that may’ve been sturdy by most applications’ requirements. That included 40 wins, a 17-13 convention document, and a visit to a regional closing.

But LSU will not be most applications; it is among the most storied, best-resourced groups within the nation, maybe the best-resourced staff within the nation. And second-year head coach Jay Johnson, to his credit score, constructed a roster commensurate with these expectations.

It’s not with out flaws. The pitching employees after Skenes is susceptible, notably within the bullpen. And LSU misplaced two of its final three regular-season sequence. This will not be the perfect staff within the nation, not the sort of unwavering, cruel killing machine Wake Forest constructed. What LSU is, nevertheless, is essentially the most proficient staff within the nation, a top-five offense, with the perfect pitcher within the subject. It’s been examined by the sort of outrageously powerful schedule each SEC staff has to undergo; of these 15 losses, 12 got here in opposition to groups that made the NCAA Tournament. That consists of all three of LSU’s regular-season nonconference losses.

Key Number: 188.

That’s what number of batters right-hander Skenes struck out in simply 107 innings this 12 months. Of course, if you happen to’ve been maintaining along with your school baseball protection right here at FanGraphs Dot Com, you already find out about Skenes, whom I interviewed earlier than the season.

Triple-digit fastball, slider that stops simply earlier than the plate to ask for instructions, good change-up. Skenes is listed at 6-foot-6, 247 kilos and appears 4 inches taller and 40 kilos heavier on the mound. And but he’s shockingly athletic for a man that huge; he was a catcher till not too long ago, and advised me he missed being on the opposite facet of the battery. In phrases of expertise as a school pitcher, folks have in contrast him to Stephen Strasburg, which I feel is somewhat bold. But I agree, there’s not a pitching prospect this good in most draft courses.

Better Know a Player: Sophomore 3B Tommy White

I’d argue that the Tigers don’t simply have the largest star in school baseball, they’ve the three largest stars: Skenes and outfielder Dylan Crews, the 2 prime school prospects within the draft, and White. Skenes will get loads of consideration due to his extraordinarily GIFable repertoire, whereas Crews shot to the highest of everybody’s draft board as a result of he had a .570 OBP this 12 months and may most likely play middle subject within the professionals.

But don’t sleep on White, who had a monster freshman season at N.C. State final 12 months earlier than transferring to LSU within the offseason. He hit .377/.439/.750 with 22 house runs and 22 doubles, each tops on the most effective offensive groups within the nation, and did so whereas transitioning to 3rd base full-time after splitting time among the many corners and DH as a freshman.

Trivia: Dani Wexelman tweeted this enjoyable reality yesterday and I don’t suppose I can beat it: When LSU’s present juniors have been freshmen, the Tigers opened the season in opposition to Air Force. There, Crews hit his first collegiate house run… off of Paul Skenes.

Tennessee
Record: 43-20 (16-14 SEC, Finished fourth in SEC East, eradicated in first spherical of convention match)
Path to Omaha: No. 2 seed in Clemson Regional (3-0, def. Charlotte 2x, Clemson); Won Hattiesburg Super Regional 2-1 vs. Southern Mississippi

The Vols obtained their spot in Omaha the exhausting manner; they beat no. 4 nationwide seed Clemson in the perfect baseball recreation that’s going to be performed wherever in 2023, I’m certain of it. Tennessee rallied from two runs down with two outs and the bases empty within the prime of the ninth inning, when Zane Denton hit a three-run homer to take the lead after being down 0-2 within the depend. Then Clemson got here again within the backside of the ninth to tie; the 2 groups have been all the way down to their final strike in that inning 3 times between them and each survived. Both groups escaped a bases-loaded, no-out jam in further innings earlier than Tennessee lastly broke by means of within the 14th inning, tying this system document for longest recreation.

It was a tense affair, with either side exchanging phrases all through; Clemson outfielder Cam Cannarella was tossed within the thirteenth inning for operating afoul of the NCAA’s absurd guidelines about taunting. (John Calvin took a take a look at what school umpires are presupposed to name and stated, “You need to loosen up a little bit there, bro.”) But it was good to see the 2 orangest groups in baseball come to a compromise after they went head-to-head: Tennessee wore black jerseys, Clemson purple.

The Vols then needed to come again to win back-to-back elimination video games after dropping the tremendous regional opener to Southern Miss. But they’ve performed with their backs to the wall all 12 months.

Key Number: 23-14 (5-10).

On April 18, Tennessee misplaced by seven runs at house to a Tennessee Tech staff that ended up ending 13 video games beneath .500. The Vols had simply been swept by Arkansas the earlier weekend, and their convention document sat at 5-10. After that loss to Tennessee Tech in April, the Vols gained their subsequent 9 video games by a mixed rating of 108-33, together with sweeps of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State that introduced their convention document again over .500. They’ve gained 20 of their previous 26.

The sluggish begin adopted by a fast turnaround stands in sharp distinction to 2022, when the Vols began 31-1 (their second loss was, once more, a midweek defeat to Tennessee Tech) and ended up because the no. 1 general seed within the NCAA Tournament. But issues slowly deteriorated, culminating in a disastrous tremendous regional in opposition to Notre Dame. Star outfielder Drew Gilbert was ejected for arguing balls and strikes in Game 1, and since participant ejections carry an computerized one-game suspension, Gilbert missed the rubber match and the Vols misplaced.

And I suppose that is nearly as good a spot as any to say the one factor you must find out about Tennessee: They’re essentially the most hated staff in school baseball.

In the SEC, it’s simple for groups to have boom-and-bust cycles. LSU is at all times good. Vandy, Florida, and Arkansas have at all times been good beneath their present head coaches, and mainly everybody else has ups and downs. Because that is the SEC and two thirds of the convention will get right into a regional yearly, “down” is a relative time period, however nonetheless.

Tennessee was like that till Tony Vitello turned head coach in 2018. The Vols have gained 40 or extra video games their previous 4 full seasons, went to Omaha in 2021, and had the aforementioned historic common season final 12 months. Vitello coaches an aggressive, hard-hitting, hard-throwing model of baseball. Angels flamethrower Ben Joyce performed for Vitello at UT, the place they known as him the “Volunteer Fireman,” despite the fact that he had a teammate who additionally threw 100-plus named Chase Burns.

Vitello’s staff performs with a variety of vitality. They have fun, they needle their opponents, they discuss again to umpires (in 2021, Vitello obtained tossed from a College World Series recreation). ESPN colour commentator Kyle Peterson stated in the course of the Clemson recreation that the Vols aren’t afraid to “wear the black hat.” Which is each a beautiful euphemism and a very good distillation of what makes Tennessee distinctive. In each different sport, there are groups which might be comfy taking part in the dangerous man. They go proper as much as the sting and typically over it, and if their opponents or different followers get indignant, too dangerous. No one likes us, and we don’t care.

Baseball groups, by and huge, don’t do this. And I do not know why. Ironically, the Astros have been getting near mastering the kayfabe villain function proper up till the second they obtained caught stealing indicators, at which level they folded as a substitute of doubling down. I feel Tennessee is an thrilling, participating, provocative staff. This is a minority opinion. College baseball followers, typically talking, are available in two cultural flavors: frothing, blinkered partisans and buttoned-down decorum fetishists. These two disparate strands have two issues in widespread: They’re extremely sensitive, they usually suppose the Volunteers are a bunch of jackasses.

So yeah, possibly Tennessee is evil. But typically somewhat evil is simply what the sport wants.

Better Know a Player: Sophomore 2B Christian Moore

Moore and his double play associate, Maui Ahuna, have been all over the place this postseason. Moore was the MVP of the Clemson Regional, the place he hit 4 of his 17 house runs this season.

In whole, Moore is 9-for-21 this match, with these 4 house runs and three multi-hit video games. Over the total season, Moore hit .313/.458/.627, and led the Vols in OBP and stolen bases. If Tennessee is ready to rating together with LSU of their first-round matchup, Moore and Ahuna should drive the offense.

Trivia: More on Vitello and the boom-and-bust nature of Tennessee baseball. Vitello’s first regional look in 2019 broke a 13-year match drought for the Vols. He’s now made the match 4 years operating. One extra will tie this system document of 5 straight, set between 1993 and 1997 by groups that featured, amongst others, Todd Helton and R.A. Dickey.

The Men’s College World Series begins at 2 p.m. ET on Friday, with TCU-Oral Roberts.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com