Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/18/23

Dan Szymborski: ITS A CHAT!

Ben Cherington: Does Henry Davis even want Triple A? At what level does he simply head to Pittsburgh.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit tough – I don’t usually like skipping catchers too aggressively, however they will’t play each him and Endy Rodriguez.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s slightly awkward to stay him in a non-catcher place within the majors

Dan Szymborski: Unless the Pirates have the heart to bench Santana

Thank you Dan,: very cool!

Dan Szymborski: DAMN YOU CAVE

Travis: Is it formally secure to say Acuna’s again

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

McGraw45: I’ve been a Padres fan all my life. Convince me going to the NLCS wasn’t a merciless joke to provide us hope, solely to tear it away as soon as extra.

Nick Pratto: What is my long run outlook?

Dan Szymborski: I feel an averageish 1B

Guest: Gonna begin of wacky:

Things aren’t going nice in San Diego

If issues proceed to go actually poorly they usually discover themselves like 40-50 in mid-July, 15+ video games out of the West and eight+ out of the wildcard (assuming two the Mets/Phillies/Cardinals/Cubs enhance), what are the probabilities the Padres would entertain making Juan Soto accessible for the second straight deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume they do this until they abruptly need to interrupt up the staff. Losing Soto makes a few of the different offers almost pointless

Dan Szymborski: They’re pot dedicated now

Beacon: Should the White Sox transfer Kopech to the bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: I might contemplate it if the White Sox have been significantly within the divisional race

Dan Szymborski: But they’re not and their good outcomes in all probability want Kopech a great starter and one fewer starter to want to switch within the subsequent couple of years

Dan Szymborski: Since the season’s more and more trying misplaced, I feel they shoudl work out his points.

Who’s Fabio: Hey Dan, the attention check signifies that Vladdy has embraced bodily health and he seems to be good at first.  With Chapman seemingly gone after the season, may/ought to the Jays strive Vlad Jr. at third once more?

Dan Szymborski: I usually assume groups such attempt to push the defensive spectrum the place doable. I’d need a fallback place although within the spring

Dan: How lengthy till it’s extra seemingly Bryce Elder is actually higher than sum of his pitches vs that is only a blip of over-performance?

Dan Szymborski: Not actually a one sentence reply! It takes numerous time, nevertheless, for outperformance of peripheral numbers to have predictive worth

Dan Szymborski: For instance, Marco Gonzales superior far sufficient in ZiPS that it consider his skill to outperform his FIP is about 0.3 runs

Matt: You projected what Bryan Reynolds contract extension may appear like, with the Bucs getting him to signal and exhibiting a willingness to increase a few of the core, what does ZIPS should say a few potential Mitch Keller extension?

Dan Szymborski: Dangit  you guys all the time give me work to do! lol

Dan Szymborski: You’ll have to attend just a few, ZiPS isn’t open

Insert Witty Name Here: You’re late.  I need a refund.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t normally depart at exactly 1 although!

Anon21: Is Orlando Arcia a great hitter now? Did the Braves get an enormous steal by signing him to that 3-year, $7.3 million extension?

Dan Szymborski: I acquired most of my emotions about Arcia out within the piece I wrote just a few weeks in the past

Colton: Does ZiPS have biases for sure traits in prospects? I do know you’ve talked about the way it was a lot larger on Mookie as a prospect in comparison with the business, is there one thing specifically it keys on that you just’ve observed or simply occurred to work out that means?

Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided for sure traits apart from because it’s performance-based, it likes gamers with good efficiency who scouts don’t like for some cause

LFC Mike: Greetings Dan.  What did you make of Anthony DeSclafani hurting his foot with a piano bench? Have you suffered something like that? I perceive when requested how lengthy he could also be out, DeSclafani stated  “He would be Bach in no time”.  Thank You. Let the derision start.

Dan Szymborski: I badly sprained a ligament in my wrist some years in the past enjoying the primary motion of the Beethoven Pathetique

Dan Szymborski: And then I tore it extra considerably just a few years later once I tripped on a cat and tried to catch myself on the bannister falling

Dan Szymborski: Injury was right here

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I nonetheless will largely solely play the second and third motion and I’m nonetheless sheepish about enjoying anythign with a fast tremolo within the left hand.

your 3 cents: Morn. and thanks for ZIPS.

Brando Kosmische: O’Hearn is an apparent candidate. Where do the cuts off the fringes of the 40 man want to come back to get Cowser and Westburg up.

Dan Szymborski: I’d definitely attempt to see if any groups are all for Gillaspie

Sill Rabbit, Tricks are for ZiPS: How steadily are the 3-yr projections on right here up to date/re-run? Asking for my dynasty rebuild.

Dan Szymborski: Just preseason. Running the complete preseason mannequin is troublesome en masse

Dick Monfort: My Rox are gonna keep away from 100 losses once more, Doncha assume?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has it a 30% likelihood

Dan Szymborski: And the staff doesn’t do selloffs which might get them worse within the short-term

ribbit: What are you listening to RIGHT NOW?

Dan Szymborski: the Chailly recording of Messiaen’s Turangalila Symphonie.

Dan Szymborski: Been on a little bit of a Messiaen jag this week as I used to be simply speaking final week in a mini-Twitter thread about a few of the thematic similarities between the Sephiroth One-Winged Angel theme from Final Fantasy VII and this piece.

Dan Szymborski: Thread began right here

Dan Szymborski:

The Big Dirk: What are your ideas on Yoshida? Worth the funding to this point?

Dan Szymborski: Happy, sure

Dan Szymborski: And good self-interest since ZiPS had him at .305/.372/.489 earlier than the season and main the AL in BA

Stosh: RIP SUPERSTAR BILLY GRAHAM

Guards catcher: Is it Bo time in Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski: It’s absurd that it’s not but!

TomBruno23: What ought to I inform my buddy in Iowa, let’s name him Bodie, concerning the 2023 New York Mets?

Dan Szymborski: The Mets, good or dangerous, are the nation’s main depository of disappointment

a great deli meat sandwich: Is there long run concern for Trea Turner with SwStr% + Okay% at profession highs and xwOBA + barrel charge at profession lows?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far but, although mildly nervous about his hunch at the least

Dan: Regarding the melancholy of the A’s point out in your chat teaser. Either it’s nonetheless baseball so that they aren’t miserable in any respect merely roughly enjoyable or they’re so miserable that 32% much less miserable remains to be horrendously excessive for a chat. I see every of those views as legitimate.

Dan Szymborski: I simply don’t wish to overpromise

Appa Yip Yip: What’s incorrect with Alejandro Kirk? The hit instrument it’s gone.

Dan Szymborski: I’m positively at the least considerably involved as a result of although the BABIP is just too low, a few of his velocity information is de facto off too

Sir Nerdlington: I named our new pet after a participant and that staff can not win a sport. My fault or simply dangerous luck? I feel we may change his title with solely minor lasting character points.

Dan Szymborski: It is perhaps humorous to see in the event that they ever win once more!

Dan Szymborski: If you assume there’s a hex, effectively, in for a penny, in for a pound

Graham Ashcraft: Do I would like a third pitch to be higher than a back-end starter?

Dan Szymborski: Two pitch pitchers generally have numerous success. In his case, I’d actually wish to see him develop an off-speed pitch

Dan Szymborski: He’s simply not nice at ending off at-bats

Trevor May Care Attitude: Since you talked about the miserable A’s within the chat teaser, I’ve to get your take. This is a staff with a wRC+ of 97, which isn’t really that dangerous. Is it doable that an MLB staff employs pitchers whose collective true expertise is so totally abysmal?! They have to enhance considerably, proper? Right?!

Dan Szymborski: Writing extra about ’em tomorrow!

LFC Mike: How aggressive do you assume  the Reds will probably be with extra promotions? McLain simply up and CES ready within the wings. Issue with CES is the stroll charge, 1 all 12 months I consider.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve tgot a chunk releated to this subsequent weke

Guest: which of those underperforming groups do you assume has the perfect likelihood of working issues out: Cubs, Cards, M’s, or Guardians

Dan Szymborski: Cards

Dan Szymborski: The Contreras scenario was a complete Bucket of Stupid

Dan Szymborski: however individuals grossly underrate groups that get off to unexpectedly poor begins

Eephus Heat: Do you assume Colas is something apart from a mean MLB OF? Is a 20/10 peak?

Dan Szymborski: Not actually, no

Syndergaardengnomes: Vientos places up Barry Bonds numbers at AAA, Mets maintain off on selling him.  They lastly do, he hits 4 balls 100 MPH final night time, together with a 2 run HR to tie the sport, and at present he’s benched for Tommy Pham and Daniel Vogelbach.  Is this Eppler or Showalter with the horrendous selections?

Dan Szymborski: I might GUESS Buck

Sum: Dan, apologies for the in all probability LMGTFY-able query. if a participant is named up, despatched down, and so forth. – is their paycheck the massive league min whereas they’re on the 26-man, after which their minor league wage if/once they’re despatched again down? or does the previous “contract was selected from” language imply that they’re now totally on a brand new contract, even when despatched again down, they usually now get the massive league min for perpetuity? or another?

Dan Szymborski: They’re not on a brand new contract actually, they’re on elective project. When they’re on the 40-man roster then their minimums fall beneath the CBA

Dan Szymborski: For gamers of their first-time on a 40-man roster, however enjoying within the minors, their minimal is $58,800

Dan Szymborski: and for gamers on cut up contracts , the minimal is $117,400

Dan Szymborski: In different phrases, a second MLB contract

Steve O: If Bellinger retains this up all 12 months, does he get 9 figures?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Buctober: Why does bryan reynolds all the time hit higher with the stache? Does his xSWAG or SWAG+ enhance in a significant means?

Dan Szymborski: The energy of mustaches

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS suggests, for two final years of arb + 3 years of FA, 5/85 for Keller

Baty for Coco Crisps: Is there a option to see who has probably the most 400 foot outs? It looks like Acuna’s had like 5.

Dan Szymborski: There is!

Dan Szymborski: Statcast solely has one 400-foot out for Acuna

Dan Szymborski: Matt Chapman leads the majors with 4 400-foot outs

Dan Szymborski: Kerry Carpenter, Rodolfo Castro, and Kyle Tucker have two

Dan Szymborski: And then 49 gamers have a single one

Cat Latos: How do my cat frens do?

Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s sleeping in his cat mattress on my left desk

Dan Szymborski: I heard somebody barf on the steps, which I’ve to wash up after this chat

Dan Szymborski: I feel that was Constantine as that was 12:30 and that’s when he begins getting stressed about his upcoming dinner

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia was asleep within the spoon of the cat tree within the upstairs TV room

Dan Szymborski: and Mercutio was final seen, about 11 AM, sleeping on prime of one of many pillows on the massive front room sofa

Dan Szymborski: That’s his favourite place now – that was once Galileo’s favourite place as a result of he may see each the entrance door and the fridge from that place

Dan Szymborski: Nobody would use that spot for a pair years after he died

Guest: I’m begging you to please repair Mike Trout and make him the perfect non-Ohtani baseball participant once more 🙁

Dan Szymborski: I imply, dude’s on the incorrect facet of 30 now. Time is the final word badass

ham: Do you contemplate your self a cat particular person?

Dan Szymborski: Not positive, I like canine too, however cats are actually clear and I don’t should dress and stroll across the neighborhood with them at 6 AM

Dan Szymborski: And I can depart cats alone for per week with day by day checkups from my mother or sister

Kyle: Does Jackson Holliday have an opportunity to play within the majors this 12 months if he earns a promotion to AA and has a wRC+ of 200 once more for 40 video games?

Dan Szymborski: I feel so

LFC Mike: Who would you charge as “Composer most likely to cause career ending injury?”

Dan Szymborski: Liszt or Alkan?

Pixley: Are all of us simply residing in a Szymulation?

Dan Szymborski: Not a SZYMulation

Dan Szymborski: But technically talking, if it could ever be doable to simulate the universe exactly, then it’s extra seemingly we’re in one of many simulations than one of many “real” ones

SoSo: Dan, it’s good to see on chatting as soon as once more!!

Dan Szymborski: I used to be right here final week and on trip earlier than that!

Gunther Centralperk: Generally talking, are ZiPS ROS projections extra conservative than Steamer, FGDC, THE BAT, and ATC DC? If so, why?

Dan Szymborski: Not that I’m conscious of.

Dan Szymborski: But I have a tendency to check ZiPS vs. actuality, not ZiPS vs. different projection techniques

Dan Szymborski: Because ZiPS vs. different projection techniques doesn’t give me perception on bettering the projections since I can’t dissect the why.

Brando Kosmische: And since this chat started, Westburg has hit his twelfth homer.

Oaktown Blues: TIL that “Turanga Leela” is a reference to a symphony

Dan Szymborski: For these unaware, that’s the Futurama character

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the spotify hyperlink for the recording

TomBruno23: When I watch Matthew Liberatore pitch I see a bodily resemblance to Chuck Finley.

Dylan Cease and Desist: Fischer has handed the Montforts as baseball’s worst proprietor, no?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

SoSo: Depository of Sadness…nice band title

ctrapper: Hi Dan!  What’s the common WAR motion on a pitcher from one 12 months to the subsequent..

Dan Szymborski: Don’t know that particular offhand

BCubs: Is Michael Harris going to be fantastic? His statcast information appears good. What’s his ROS expectations?

Dan Szymborski: Him I’m not nervous about

Guest: The ERA remains to be ugly however do you assume Chris Sale is considerably again?

Dan Szymborski: While I’m not optimsitic about his well being, I’m about his efficiency

Greg: When groups overtly discuss not eager to jerk prospects round by calling them up after which sending them down in the event that they see them as “core pieces” do you assume that generally a participant within the group who’s “up and down” may get the incorrect message about his function/future? I swear I’m not Kyle Stowers’s cousin.

Dan Szymborski: It is dependent upon the group. Some talk higher than others.

Dan Szymborski: There’s an actual variance on how groups deal with their prospects

E-roq: Did you recognize that Jake Bauers has an xWOBA of .413, a 25% barrel charge and a 50% hard-hit charge, as per Statcast, in 40 PAs. How many PAs till you assume it means one thing if he retains that up?

Dan Szymborski: Actually, I didn’t

Dan Szymborski: it’s sufficient that it’s attention-grabbing, although he has a protracted historical past of MEH to beat

Guest: The video games are too quick! What can we do to additionally them down? There aren’t any dangerous concepts.

Dan Szymborski: Any time a staff is up by 10 runs, Steve Trachsel mechanically is available in to pitch

Guest: On Senga’s participant web page, is the ghost fork categorized because the splitter? And in that case, that’s bizarre, the cutter appears to be a way more useful pitch.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, pitch data doesn’t use forkball as one among their courses in clustering

Dan Szymborski: however statcast does

Dan Szymborski: it’s simply that you just’ve had so few gamers explicitly by a forkball

Bobbo: Apparently the White Sox have began a RHP for 162 straight video games. Is this a not-talked-about lowkey contributing issue of their lack of success?

Dan Szymborski: If their RHP may get guys out, I don’t assume anybody would care

TomBruno23: As KLaw stated in a 1/30/2020 chat in response to a query about Matt Carpenter. “He got old. Time is a motherfucker.”

Dan Szymborski: He unolded!

ChatGPT4 is, sadly, a Royals fan: Dan, primarily based in your evaluation, what’s the one most impactful change the Royals may make to their lineup or technique to enhance their efficiency this season?

Dan Szymborski: maintaining Garcia within the lineup in all probability means they’re fairly near optimum

Dan Szymborski: there are issues I’d do this they’re not, however to not enhance outcomes THIS season

Dan Szymborski: On that word, it’s time for me to go out for an additional week

Dan Szymborski: Thank you for coming everybody and hope to se eyou all subsequent time!