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Dan
LIVE CHAT: Dan Szymborski is chatting now.
Chat RSS Feed:
https://www.jotcast.com/chatTranscript.xml?id=16029
| 12:02 |
 Dan Szymborski: GafternooN!
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| 12:03 |
Chutzpah: Who are some prospects on this years draft you is perhaps enthusiastic about that aren’t a part of the highest 20 group?
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| 12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Carson Roccaforte is among the prime of my head
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| 12:06 |
Dan Szymborski: Cam Fisher has actually enjoyable energy
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| 12:06 |
Dan Szymborski: however these are most likely Eric questions
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| 12:06 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not an novice draft guru
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| 12:06 |
Chutzpah: What’s a sensible return for the Tigers in the event that they traded Rodriguez and Lorenzen this 12 months? Could they get a prime bat for Rodriguez even with him being harm proper now?
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| 12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: I believe you may get a extremely fascinating prospect, however seemingly nowhere close to prime 50 for E-Rod
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| 12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: IF he’s again and pitching effectively in July
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| 12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Problem is that if he’s adequate to provide a terrific prospect for him
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| 12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: He’s adequate to opt-out
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| 12:08 |
laxtonto: Which younger participant has the best variance in Zips this 12 months from projections?
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| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: Don’t know off-hand! I’ll most likely do a midseason piece on this
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| 12:09 |
Tacoby Bellsbury: Orioles-agnostic, who’re your favourite gamers to observe play proper now, and why?
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| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: Elly De La Cruz has been nice enjoyable
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| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: I really like watching Gallen video games
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| 12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s wonderful how a lot of a *pitcher* he’s at his age
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| 12:10 |
no coast: Who is your favourite to win the NLC at this level? If Milwaukee trades Burnes, it looks as if Cinci or the Cubs could also be in one of the best place.
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| 12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: I believe Brewers are nonetheless the favorite
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| 12:11 |
Big Fan: Have you checked out Spencer Strider to see what’s happening along with his previous couple of begins?
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| 12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen his relative struggles in latest weeks however I actually haven’t dug deeper into them
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| 12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: And I don’t assume y’all favor I simply make one thing up!
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| 12:12 |
Trey: Does ZIPs account for adjustments within the taking part in surroundings through rule adjustments, adjustments to the baseball, and so on? Thinking in regards to the enormous spike in stolen bases this 12 months and the way which will change projections for the long run (e.g. Acuna already has 29 steals this 12 months and ZIPs presently tasks 28 steals for all of 2024)
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| 12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Remember, the 2024 projection is preseason
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| 12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t know adjustments within the taking part in surroundings till the surroundings occurs.
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| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: I attempt to maintain something that’s “Dan Szymborski’s Speculation” out of ZiPS, even in instances the place it might make the projection probably extra correct
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| 12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Right now, ZiPS has him at 41 for 2024
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| 12:16 |
James: Can we pencil Hunter Brown in as a center of the rotation man going ahead?
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: That’s most likely underestimating him now!
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| 12:17 |
Grand Admiral Braun: Would an extension in Chicago for Stroman at 4/$90M with a number of opt-outs be one thing you’d be effective with?
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: I might be
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| 12:18 |
Marcus: When Grayson Rodríguez return?
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| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: Depends on his subsequent few begins I believe
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| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: He was crushing it towards Scranton
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| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: But though it was a stable recreation by way of outcomes, he was a bit wild towards Gwinnett
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| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: I believe they need to see inning-to-inning consistency from him
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| 12:18 |
Ben: The Red Sox are 34-35 with a run differential of 1. They have been projected to be a couple of .500 heading into the season so none of this must be a shock. What is the trail ahead to be aggressive? Is the plan simply to hope Casas/Bello/Mayer/Rafaela turn out to be good main leaguerers?
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| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: Depends how keen the staff is to spend.
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| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: I believe the core is a bit on the weak aspect in the meanwhile, so I do assume they want some prospects to work out
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| 12:19 |
Endangered Marlins Fan: It’s form of hilarious that literal large Eury Perez has flown beneath the radar up to now. Just watching him pitch seems like an expertise
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| 12:19 |
TKDC: Obviously there’s a chunk of regression seemingly in the best way, however Orlando Arcia signing for 3 years plus an possibility completely lower than $10 million after which turning into a helpful beginning brief cease proves that AA is certainly a witch, right?
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| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Correct.
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| 12:19 |
Reds Enjoyer: Hey Dan, is it practical that the Reds can win the Central this 12 months with how unhealthy the beginning pitching has been and the information that Lodolo is out till August? Also, would love your present estimate of the percentages for every staff to win the division. Thanks!
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| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: I believe it’s practical, although not the *possible* final result
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| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: Most divisions, it wouldn’t be
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| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: But the Central is baaaad
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| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: Both of ’em
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| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: In this case, I believe our odds are about what my intestine thinks
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| 12:21 |
SinkingShip: How usually does ZiPS challenge an AL or NL Central division winner with a sub-.500 report? Currently just one staff in every division over that mark, and simply barely at that.
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| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: Not tremendous usually., I shared the win playoff prob chart final week, I dont’ assume it’s change a lot
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| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: Lemme see if I can discover that
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| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: While I search for this, hearken to the music
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| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s seemingly that no less than one NL Central staff pops up above .500.
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| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: More seemingly in AL Central, about 15% probability or so
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| 12:24 |
B Snit’s Bongos: Will Ronald Acuna Jr. end 2023 with 100+ whole SBs and HRs?
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| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: No
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| 12:24 |
TKDC: Do you assume Braves prospects usually overperform their prospect rating as a result of the Braves appear to advertise guys a lot sooner than every other staff which means by the point a man would possibly transfer up the prospect rankings, he’s already in Atlanta?
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| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided they essentially *do* overperform their prospect rating
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| 12:25 |
Who’s Fabio?: Hi Dan – Could present us a few the photographs you made with Bo Bichette’s head in Star Wars stills thus giving rise to baseball Jedi Knight Boba Chette?
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| 12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 12:26 |
Freddy: Framber within the elite tier of SP’s for you proper now?
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| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
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| 12:28 |
Dan Szymborski: In the mid-June full ZiPS run, he’s fourth in projected 2024 WAR
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| 12:28 |
B Snit’s Bongos: Which of those golf equipment will end 2023 with essentially the most wins? TB, MIN, TEX, ATL, PIT, ARI?
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| 12:29 |
B Snit’s Bongos: Which of those golf equipment will end 2023 with essentially the most wins? NYY, CLE, HOU, MIA, MIL, LAD?
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| 12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Rays. Basically, to finish up with extra wins than the Rays, you need to be like 12 higher than them on a seasonal foundation. I don’t assume that by way of roster energy, anybody has that argument
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| 12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Houston for 2
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| 12:30 |
Travis: Acuna has hit 36 balls at a 110+ MPH, which is greater than 23 groups and 18 greater than second place, Ohtani. That’s kinda insane, proper?
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| 12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: He again
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| 12:30 |
Guest: What is going on with Matt Rudick? Older man beating up on youthful guys? Tiny, livid man wreaking vengeance on the gods that robbed him of peak?
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| 12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: Altuve’s hit a variety of homers!
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| 12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided why he’s nonetheless at Binghamton at this level
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| 12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Something might have clicked for him energy clever
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| 12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: however he’s so previous you gotta get him up towards higher competitors in the event you ever need to discover out
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| 12:32 |
JermX: How assured are you in a turnaround for Freddy Peralta?
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| 12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: Moderately!
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| 12:33 |
Bryce Turangalila Symphonie: Thanks to you, I now know that BB% for minor leaguers, particularly within the low minors, isn’t as vital as one may think. Could you give me ZiPS’s opinion of one in every of this 12 months’s most excessive examples, Carter Jensen?
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| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: ha on the deal with
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| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: I discussed the Messiaen just lately a pair occasions. Maybe right here?
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| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: Turanga Lila in Futurama is an intentional reference from Groening
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| 12:36 |
Dan Szymborski: 222/321/276
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| 12:36 |
B Snit’s Bongos: Who will take advantage of begins in 2023? deGrom, Rodon, or Fried?
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| 12:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I imply it’s not going to be degrom
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Though I assume it’s technically potential if fried and rodon have been out for the season
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: however the Braves have been fairly adamant, until there’s been a really latest improvement I’ve missed, that Fried’s UCL isn’t broken
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: so him
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| 12:37 |
B Snit’s Bongos: If you may choose just one MiLB participant most deserving of a callup TODAY, who would it not be?
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: CES
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| 12:39 |
Guest: what percentile of his preseason projections is Carroll at proper now? 98?
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: Percentile 2B HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR 95% 35 26 .313 .400 .550 154 7.0 90% 32 24 .301 .386 .522 144 6.3 80% 30 21 .286 .370 .495 132 5.4 70% 27 19 .274 .360 .471 124 4.9 60% 25 17 .261 .351 .448 116 4.3 50% 23 16 .253 .341 .428 110 3.9 40% 21 15 .243 .335 .413 103 3.4 30% 20 13 .233 .325 .394 96 2.8 20% 18 12 .223 .312 .371 87 2.2 10% 15 10 .206 .298 .348 75 1.3 5% 13 9 .192 .279 .319 69 0.7
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: gdu
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: gdi
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: This was coming into the season
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| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: His OPS+ is about 170
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| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: however it’s in half a season, so extra seemingly than over a full season
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| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: so I’d guess someplace between 90-95
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| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: Last I noticed, Mercutio was hanging round on the cat tree within the upstairs television room
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| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: whereas the three black cats have been asleep in other places in the lounge
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| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: They’re all exhausted as a result of we had fishing pole time.
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| 12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: THIS had been some of the profitable cat fishing toys
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| 12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s acquired fishing line as a substitute of the elastic line, which is sweet as a result of the catlets will chunk by means of the black elastic cords
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| 12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: and it’s actually lengthy so I can launch the toy a great distance with out my hand getting completely mauled
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| 12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: as a result of Constantine and Justinian will fly round the lounge like nutballs
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| 12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia much less so, however it nonetheless tires her out as a result of she’s lazy
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| 12:43 |
BCB: Do you assume it’s okay that we enable narratives and feelings to form MVP discuss? To me it provides extra taste to baseball historical past if you look again at MVP races and see typically what was going by means of the collective baseball consciousness at the moment, however I perceive if others disagree
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| 12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m actually torn on the entire thing
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| 12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t thoughts it being a part of the argument
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| 12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: But I believe awards are essentially the most deserving once they go to one of the best
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| 12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: and if you usher in narratives and feelings, it finally ends up principally with treating gamers in an arbitrary style
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| 12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I are likely to assume there’s one thing extraordinarily smug about judging gamers primarily based on intangible qualities
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| 12:45 |
SneakyCat: If I modify my title mid chat does the software program nonetheless acknowledge me as the identical particular person? Trying to maximise my Dan engagement
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| 12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I can’t inform who’s who
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| 12:45 |
MilwaukeeBeerJays: Have you ever seen the disproportionate quantity of images named some variation of zach?
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes. I’ve to examine each Zach/Zack
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: AND THEN SOMETIMES THEY SWITCH
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: Zack must be the Zack for now on.
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| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: If you need to go purchase Zach? Fine. You’re “zatch.” Non-conformings Zac sorts? You’re “zass.”
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| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: And in the event you’re a Nix brother going by Zych? Zeitch
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| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: I assume a Nix brother could be Zaych
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| 12:48 |
Oli: how severe is Helsley’s damage?
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: Any of you most likely know as a lot as I do at this level.
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: Shut down with forearm ache
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: however the Cards haven’t elaborated and if Passan or Robothal haven’t heard extra, I definitely haven’t
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t attempt to play reporter. I’m an analyst!
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| 12:49 |
Steve Y.: Acuña has put to mattress any fears that the ACL damage would possibly completely alter his means. But between the damage and the COVID season, he’s additionally misplaced a big variety of video games from his prime. Given that, do you continue to see him as having a sensible shot to achieve his inner-circle Hall of Fame ceiling?
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Yes
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| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS JAWS has him at 56.1 as a rightfifelder
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| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: or a rightfielder
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| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Though I assume it is dependent upon what you imply by inner-circle
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| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: But that places him 14th or fifteenth in JAWS for RF and a participant that good at 25 definitely has upside of being greater
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| 12:54 |
Tommy Pham: Am I for actual?
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| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: Is Pham actually having a adequate season for “for real” questions?
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| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: He’s most likely been above the place he’s now as a participant
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| 12:54 |
B Snit’s Bongos: When does a pattern measurement stop to be small?
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| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: That’s a really complicated query. It’s not linear
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| 12:55 |
Dan Szymborski: I’d information you to a few of FG content material on the difficulty
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| 12:55 |
blackberry cardinals: loved your dialog with bernie. the playing cards suck.
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: I used to be barely anxious initially as a result of the decision acquired disconnected after I picked up
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: so I known as into the studio
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: naturally, when somebody picked up, my first query was AM I CALLING THE CORRECT STUDIO
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: For those who didn’t keep in mind
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Back in January, I used to be a visitor on one other St. Louis radio station and so they had points calling me then too
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: So requested me to name in. But I had simply talked with Bernie a pair days earlier than
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: And known as *that* 314 quantity. A perplexed producer than put me on an unrelated present, apparently as a madman who thought he was a visitor and had the curious confidence of a serial killer
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: I knew issues have been going to go unhealthy when that section began.
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: “So, ‘Dan’ what do you want to talk about?”
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: “Baseball, presumably? I’m a baseball writer after all!”
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: And it went downhill from there
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| 12:58 |
KB: Do FanGraphs writers learn feedback on their items? And what’s the expectation so far as responding to these? Sometimes followers within the feedback elevate good factors however get crickets from the author.
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t assume we’ve any rule about it
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: I attempt to learn feedback.
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: I believe it’s as much as the person author.
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| 12:59 |
Cromulent: I discover fault together with your Zac/Zach/Zack argument. As a Zachary, I’ve gone with Zac since a child. A nickname must be the least quantity of letters. You would assume as a Dan you’ll respect that reality.
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: Sorry Zass!
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m very assured with feedback and have a consolation with interacting with nearly anybody that might be unreasonable to count on most writers to have
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| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: But I “came of age” within the freewheeling, flamewar-filled usenet surroundings.
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| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: I no less than *like* to consider that amongst baseball writers throughout all the inhabitants, I’m a fairly excessive percentile by way of reader interplay.
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| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m an everyday participant in Reddit, Discords, and I attempt to reply ever actual query on Twitter
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| 1:01 |
Appa Yip Yip: If you may have any feline on the earth as a pet, actually any, which might you choose? To be clear, for the needs of this it is going to by no means maul anybody and your repairs prices would keep the identical as a home shorthair you don’t need to go shopping for large slabs of goat meat. I’m simply questioning what your threshold for “big ass kitty” is.
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| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, I like cats the dimensions they’re.
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| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Since they inevitably climb on me
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| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s unhealthy sufficient making an attempt to work when Justinian or Cassie simply plop down proper on me
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| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: The factor about Galileo is that he wasn’t a “climb over you” cat. He’d count on his personal seat, however proper subsequent to you. And he’d simply calmly look forward to the second he thinks he can get some meals out of the association.
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| 1:03 |
Travis: Are 22 and 23 thought of prime years?
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| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: They rpobably must be
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| 1:03 |
Oops: I initially learn Marcus 12:18’s query as what would Grayson Rodriguez return…
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| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: DONT WANNA THINK THAT
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| 1:03 |
James: Is there any cause Yainer Diaz shouldn’t obtain 400 PAs this 12 months?
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| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Nto actually
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| 1:03 |
Guest: effectively now somebody has to start out each chat by asking “So, ‘Dan’ what do you want to talk about?”
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| 1:04 |
Scrapper: When is a participant’s MLE and ZIP projections going to considerably differ?
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| 1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: For one, translations are going to be a small pattern measurement
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| 1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: and the identical deceptive issues about any MLB line is similar as in a translation
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| 1:04 |
Guest: wait the place are you on reddit
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| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I pop up freuqently in baseball reddit
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| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Once shortly I’ll even run one thing fast for them
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| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: On that word, it’s time for me to move out for an additional week
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| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody!
|
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