David Bednar Is Unhittable at Any Pace

The Pirates, you may need heard, are in first place on the finish of April. Not solely that, they’ve performed like a first-place group after which some, outscoring opponents by 48 runs in 29 video games. Heading into Sunday, their pitching workers had the second-best ERA and FIP within the National League. Their offense had posted the second-best wRC+ within the NL as nicely; based mostly on the primary month of the season, the one factor fluky about them has been the names on the backs of their jerseys. Maybe they’ll cool off, possibly they gained’t, however full credit score to them for an distinctive first month of the season.

So why am I singling out David Bednar?

Heading into the season, Bednar was one of many few Pirates who it was secure to imagine could be good. Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen are massive names, however they’re getting up there in years. Bryan Reynolds could be good, most certainly, however maybe not in Pirates colours. But Bednar is a rock. He was an All-Star final 12 months, for God’s sake.

Except being an All-Star means various things relying on group and place. I believe again to first base within the NL within the late 2000s, when Albert Pujols had the place locked down and Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Derrek Lee, Adrián González, and Carlos Delgado needed to scramble to assert what was generally the one backup spot.

On the opposite finish of the spectrum is the reduction pitcher for a horrible group. All-Star guidelines dictate — accurately, for my part — that every group should have not less than one consultant. For essentially the most actually woeful groups, that’s often a reduction pitcher. It’s not unusual for a nasty group to have a more in-depth put up massive save totals, since a group that doesn’t rating a whole lot of runs could have extra shut results in defend. (Those of you who rode late Expos-era Ugueth Urbina to fantasy baseball glory on the flip of the century know what I’m speaking about.) Failing that, even a 100-loss group can often discover one center reliever who lucks right into a 2.00 ERA over 35 first-half innings.

Then there’s 2003 Mike Williams, who was the Pirates’ sole All-Star consultant for the second consecutive season. At the time of the break, he had 25 saves however a 6.44 ERA and 19 walks towards 22 strikeouts in 36 1/3 innings. (Brian Giles was hitting .307/.444/.512 on the break that 12 months; what the hell had been they pondering?)

It looks like this occurs to the Pirates greater than most. There’s a Gerrit Cole in right here, and I keep that Mark Melancon is essentially the most underrated nearer of the twenty first century. But even after they get a number of gamers on the All-Star group, the Pirates nonetheless ship completely baffling pitchers.

Duke led the NL in losses and had a 4.5 Okay/9 ratio the 12 months he made the All-Star group. I didn’t know who Meek was till All-Star rosters had been introduced in 2010. Absolutely wild stuff.

What does this must do with Bednar? Not that a lot, to be sincere, nevertheless it’s all the time enjoyable to recollect some guys. (Apart from Vázquez, who’s greatest forgotten.)

Last 12 months, Bednar might’ve been dismissed as extra of a Meek, however now he’s a full-fledged Melancon. Like, it is a lot of pink:

In 13 innings, Bednar has allowed a single earned run and only a single stroll. He’s transformed 9 out of 10 save alternatives, and the one time he did blow a save, the Pirates got here again and gained within the backside of the ninth. Bednar is first amongst relievers in WAR and fourth in FIP.

When I went again and checked out Bednar’s work this season, I discovered myself pondering, “Wow, there are a lot of Reds hitters in these video clips.” Sure sufficient, simply 4 of his 13 appearances have come towards a group that’s at present at or above .500, in order that’s a caveat value remembering. But you’ll be able to solely beat the group that’s put in entrance of you, and he’s simply crushing his opponents. His whiff price, 43.4%, is third-best in baseball amongst pitchers with not less than 50 batters confronted. That’s spectacular in its personal proper, nevertheless it’s additionally up 10.1 factors since final season, the seventh-biggest improve within the majors.

Where is he getting these whiffs? Outside the zone. While Bednar’s out-of-zone whiff price is nicely above-average, it’s not spectacular. But he’s getting hitters to swing at absolute trash, inducing them at a league-leading 41.7% of the pitches he throws exterior the zone. For context, Max Muncy is just swinging at 48.0% of pitches he sees in the zone. Bednar can also be throwing extra first-pitch strikes this 12 months and dealing forward within the rely; solely 36 of the 172 pitches he’s thrown this season (20.9%) have include the hitter holding the benefit. But he’s getting hitters to swing at something; along with his league-leading chase price, he’s twenty first in in-zone swing price, giving him the very best total swing price of any pitcher in baseball. Of the 50 batters he’s confronted this season, solely three have managed to run three-ball counts, and all 5 of the three-ball pitches he has thrown this 12 months have been swung at. (That one stroll was an intentional stroll of Yordan Alvarez.)

There’s a pleasant directness to Bednar’s method of pitching, as a result of he’s tying hitters in knots utilizing the oldest trick within the reduction pitcher’s ebook. Here’s a three-pitch strikeout of Jason Vosler from April 21. He begins off the plate look with a 96.2 mph four-seamer at (or close to, at any price) the highest exterior nook of the strike zone for a referred to as strike one:

Then Bednar comes again with a fully frightful curveball down and in for strike two. I really like this type of pitch, the hard-breaking gradual curve, although Vosler would most likely disagree. Bednar’s curveball solely spins at about 2,400 rpm, not even close to the highest of the leaderboard, and it has little horizontal motion. But watching it provides you that tingle within the corners of your mouth that you simply get once you chunk right into a lime.

What makes Bednar’s curveball so efficient isn’t the motion; it’s the pace differential to the fastball. Among pitchers who’ve thrown not less than 100 pitches thrown this 12 months, together with not less than one four-seamer and not less than one curve, he’s ninth in velocity differential between the 2 pitches.

You’ll discover that just a few of the pitchers who’ve this type of velocity differential are starters who solely break the hook out just a few instances a recreation. (Plus Akin, who’s thrown one curveball all 12 months.) Work within the mid-90s more often than not, and the batter gained’t be prepared for mid-to-low 70s; he’ll both be too confused to take the bat off his shoulder or come out of his footwear swinging at a pitch that gained’t cross the plate till the batter’s helmet has fallen off his head and hit the bottom. Only that’s what Bednar’s doing each plate look. It’s what Craig Kimbrel does. (Or reasonably, what prime Craig Kimbrel did.) The distinction in pace and vertical break between fastball and curveball is so nice a batter simply can’t cowl each. Add Bednar’s splitter to the equation, and it’s small surprise that hitters so incessantly suppose they will hit what’s coming and are so incessantly proved improper.

Which brings us again to poor Jason Vosler. Having simply seen 96 up and away and 77 at his knees, he’s fully handcuffed when Bednar comes again up and in with one other fastball for the coup de grace:

There’s quite a bit to be stunned by in Pittsburgh this season, however not Bednar. This is simply throwing strikes and altering pace and eye degree. It’s all the time labored, and it all the time will.