It’s August. We’re past the Trade Deadline. Contending rosters are what they’re for the remainder of the season, absent potential minor adjustments from inside; the rosters are basically locked in from right here on out.
Given that, and given the trades we’ve seen over the previous couple of weeks, who now seems to be greatest positioned to win the World Series? That’s precisely the query that MLB.com’s Mike Petriello and Will Leitch will try to reply — a bit greater than 4 months after their first draft. This time, they’re drafting 21 contenders so as of “who is most likely to win a ring.” (Why 21? Because that’s what number of groups had playoff odds of at the least 10 % at FanGraphs after the Deadline handed.)
Will selected first. There couldn’t probably be a shock on the route he went.
1. Atlanta Braves
Leitch: How may you nitpick the Braves for those who desperately wished to? Let’s see. They wouldn’t have the rotation benefit in a theoretical NLDS towards, say, the Brewers, or possibly the D-backs, and even the Phillies. The bullpen has a bunch of fine arms however nobody who makes you’re feeling like, for those who’re down a run heading into the seventh, the sport is already over. Ronald Acuña Jr. had his worst month of the season in July. (He nonetheless had a .918 OPS.) They’re solely on a 102-win tempo, and “102” is kind of definitively lower than “162.”
Otherwise, good heavens, who on the planet desires to face this staff in October? This lineup is terrifying prime to backside, they usually’re filled with stars who’re at their peak or will probably be hitting it at any second. The 2021 Braves had been a postseason buzzsaw, one of the vital enjoyable October groups I can bear in mind. This staff is healthier even earlier than you account for the truth that they’ve a wholesome Acuña. They’ll must win one other World Series, I believe, earlier than they’ll move the Dodgers because the NL’s premier franchise. But they’re the apparent choose to take action.
2. Texas Rangers
Petriello: It feels virtually unfair to the Braves to have every other staff second. It feels prefer it ought to be extra like “1) Braves, 2-6) spots held empty out of respect, 7) the next-best team.” That’s how massive the hole feels right here, partially resulting from how they’re the one staff that’s completely assured to win their division, and partially due to how loaded their roster is. But a second staff we should choose, and so I select the Rangers, who in all probability did probably the most within the weeks main as much as the Deadline to enhance their right-now probabilities, including not solely Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, but in addition Aroldis Chapman earlier in July.
And, I would add, Austin Hedges, who, regardless of his excessive offensive shortcomings, is one thing like the perfect defensive catcher in baseball, which is instantly an especially necessary addition given the uncertainty over whether or not All-Star Jonah Heim’s wrist will permit him to return this 12 months. Maybe they’ll win the division, and possibly they gained’t, however they’ll be within the postseason both method. Suddenly, as an alternative of beginning a prime three of, let’s say, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Andrew Heaney (if Nathan Eovaldi’s arm prevents him from being accessible) it’s Scherzer, Montgomery, and [pick one]. Add that to the one lineup that’s scored extra runs than Atlanta? Honestly, in the event that they do that, it’s the best short-term turnaround in historical past, provided that they misplaced 102 video games all of two years in the past.
3. Houston Astros
Leitch: There are extra shut division races at this level within the season than I can bear in mind, which ought to make the final couple of months much more thrilling than ordinary. But there’s clearly no race extra filled with intrigue than the AL West. It has two intrastate rivals. It has the defending champs towards the staff they’ve lengthy tormented. It has two outdated Cy Young Award-winning gunslingers dealing with off after being acquired on the Deadline (from the identical staff). And it has vital stakes: Whoever comes out on prime will get a first-round bye as an alternative of a possible first-round matchup with the Rays or Orioles.
What makes it much more enjoyable is that I additionally suppose they’re the 2 AL groups with the perfect probabilities to win the World Series. The Astros haven’t fairly felt just like the Astros most of this 12 months, so it’s all of the extra spectacular that they’ve hung with the Rangers (a staff having an all-timer of a 12 months) and will find yourself passing them quickly. And ultimately, I’m glad you took the Rangers, as a result of I do imagine within the Astros a bit bit extra, significantly as a result of, with the Justin Verlander commerce, they’ll have the perfect No. 1 starter. The Astros could look and act a bit in another way than they used to, however they continue to be stacked. They may simply sneak up on all people and win this factor once more.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
Petriello: The fourth choose, and I already really feel horrible about it! I don’t even actually just like the Dodgers greater than the Rays or Orioles, essentially, however I do suppose the trail here’s a considerably simpler one, as a result of A) I believe they’ll win the division, and B) I believe they’ll get that bye into the second spherical. Meanwhile, the AL path seems to be … tougher. So, whereas it’s undoubtedly disappointing that the Dodgers couldn’t do extra to strengthen their roster than the hopes-and-prayers path of “Yeah, sure, we can make Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Ryan Yarbrough, and Amed Rosario better,” I do suppose there’s an argument that we spent a lot time final winter and this summer time specializing in what they didn’t try this it’s maybe overshadowed the truth that this staff has the fifth-best successful proportion in baseball — and that Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are enjoying at an MVP degree.
They’ll get Clayton Kershaw again (in all probability). They may get Walker Buehler again (possibly). Maybe they’ll get Blake Treinen again? Remember Jimmy Nelson? Wouldn’t it’s humorous, anyway, if that is the Dodger roster that truly wins a full-season title, within the 12 months when each evaluation of their method was “more vulnerable than they’ve been in a decade?”
5. Tampa Bay Rays
Leitch: I really went forwards and backwards between the Rays and Orioles right here, which, wow, what a factor to say after we’re speaking about World Series contenders. (The human being who bought the win within the final Orioles postseason victory: Bud Norris! Delmon Young batted fifth for them in that sport.) The Orioles are the recent choose proper now, and why wouldn’t they be? They’re enjoying with an infectious pleasure that has quite a lot of followers of soon-to-be-eliminated groups leaping on their October bandwagon. But the Rays are nonetheless the Rays, and after a little bit of an injury-related dip, they give the impression of being extra just like the staff that bought off to that unbelievable begin. And now they’ve Aaron Civale, who, even for those who’re not fully on board with him, clearly does make them higher. (And it certain looks as if the Rays have earned the advantage of the doubt on pitchers).
The remainder of the division hardly stayed idle, although it’s type of humorous how a lot of the Deadline fortifications appeared to return from the Cardinals, one of the vital disappointing groups in baseball. The Rays may not be the all-timer staff we thought they had been in May. But they’re ok to nonetheless win this division and place themselves properly heading into October. And they’re precisely the type of staff to be afraid of as soon as they get there.
6. Baltimore Orioles
Petriello: Thank you, Will, for selecting between the Rays and Orioles so I didn’t must. OK, let’s do that: Since June 1, the Orioles are an AL-best 35-21, whereas the Rays are a middling 28-28. I select to imagine the Ryan O’Hearn renaissance is for actual. I select to imagine that when Cedric Mullins Jr. returns subsequent week, he’ll be an added jolt to a lineup that hardly wants one. I select to imagine that Gunnar Henderson, who has raked since a sluggish April, is The Next Big Thing. I select to imagine there’s magic in groups which are so younger, proficient, and guaranteed that the truth that they didn’t do a lot on the Deadline will probably be seen as confidence in what’s there, not disappointment in what’s not.
I additionally select to imagine that they’ll repair commerce acquisitions Jack Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami, and that Yennier Cano’s July struggles are a blip and never the inevitable indicators of fatigue, and that Félix Bautista will carry on having one of many biggest seasons in reduction historical past with no hiccups, thanks very a lot. Because as a lot as I like Baltimore’s lineup, I’m completely terrified by a pitching workers that doesn’t have even a No. 2 starter, a lot much less a No. 1, and has a bunch of younger arms blowing previous any earlier innings totals. (See: Tyler Wells backing up so dangerous he ended up in Double-A). I’m all-in on this proficient, younger lineup, however I’m fairly fearful about this pitching workers merely working out of gasoline earlier than the end line.
7. Milwaukee Brewers
Leitch: I do know, I do know: This appears early. But no matter any skepticism one may or may not have concerning the Reds — and whereas I believe they’re as well-positioned the subsequent few years as any staff on this division, in 2023 they certain appear like a staff that’s going to expire of gasoline — the Brewers appear like a staff about to search out itself.
After a sluggish begin (for him, anyway), Corbin Burnes seems to be like his Cy Young self once more, and he is bought outdated working mate Brandon Woodruff alongside him once more. Speaking of former award winners, Christian Yelich has been giving off some actual 2019 vibes recently himself. They had been sensible and surgical on the Deadline, bringing in some actual OBP juice with Mark Canha and Carlos Santana, at low cost costs. They have a bullpen that has been getting the job accomplished but once more. Devin Williams has been magical and he hasn’t even been the perfect reliever on this workers. (That can be Joel Payamps). And they’ve a supervisor in Craig Counsell who at all times appears to be discovering each little benefit his staff can get. I’m undecided they’re passing the Dodgers for a No. 2 seed — although they may! — however they’ve precisely the type of roster that thrives within the postseason. They’re my huge postseason sleeper choose … assuming, in fact, they’ll get in. Look out for these guys. Remember the place you heard it first.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
Petriello: I believe I’m taking a danger right here by choosing a staff extremely unlikely to complete greater than third in its personal division — one which may not even make the playoffs. But I really feel the identical method concerning the Blue Jays as I did at the beginning of the season, which is that if there’s any staff more likely to get crimson scorching for precisely the appropriate 4 weeks in October, it’s them. They may be historical past’s most disappointing “10 games over .500 team” this aspect of the Dodgers, however they’re nonetheless 13 video games over, and that’s with a roster that has hardly ever, if ever, been working on all cylinders on the similar time.
I’ll admit to being greater than a bit fearful about George Springer’s subpar offensive manufacturing, and I’ve no religion in any respect in Alek Manoah figuring it out, plus Bo Bichette’s knee is a priority now as properly. Still, Kevin Gausman may win the AL Cy Young Award, José Berríos has been a lot better than final 12 months, Hyun-Jin Ryu is again, and I believe they’ve a sneakily excellent bullpen, particularly since they added Jordan Hicks, and Jordan Romano’s again harm isn’t anticipated to be severe. Throw in much-improved protection within the outfield, and the by no means, ever, ever-ending hope that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is simply going to kind out no matter his extremely irritating issues are and, properly … it stays a really irritating staff. But one ok to do that, nonetheless.
9. Philadelphia Phillies
Leitch: I really feel just like the drop-off occurred actually quick this 12 months: Are we already on the Phillies? At the very least, it makes a bit extra sense to think about them this 12 months than it did final 12 months, and we noticed how that turned out. Neither Aaron Nola nor Zack Wheeler have been what they had been final 12 months, however they’re nonetheless a 1-2 you be ok with in that rotation, and Michael Lorenzen was a pleasant little Deadline addition. The method I’m taking a look at Nola and Wheeler is the best way it’s important to take a look at the Phillies in whole, virtually like an NBA staff that rested its stars within the common season to have them prepared for the playoffs. There are so many huge names who haven’t performed as much as expectations in 2023, from Nola and Wheeler to J.T. Realmuto to Bryce Harper to Trea Turner. And but, right here they nonetheless are, within the second NL Wild Card spot, with out ever fairly trying like themselves.
So that’s my guess right here: The Phillies lumber into the postseason after which come alive in October just like the veterans they’re. The NL Wild Card race is lunacy proper now, however the Phillies look as probably as anybody to emerge from the wreckage. And as we noticed final 12 months, something can occur then.
10. San Diego Padres
Petriello: I … suppose? This is lunacy, proper? The Padres are nonetheless underneath .500 and out of a playoff spot, nevertheless it’s straw-grasping time right here. Hey! Did you recognize that they’ve largely been torpedoed by a fully unbelievable 0-10 mark in extra-inning video games, which is a catastrophe however can also be probably not predictive of something? Hey! Did you recognize that though including Ji Man Choi and Garrett Cooper aren’t headline-grabbing strikes, they’ll go a great distance towards fixing a 1B/DH state of affairs that was second-weakest in baseball?
I really feel like after we discuss “expensive, underperforming 2023” groups, the Mets and Padres understandably bought lumped collectively rather a lot. But whereas it felt just like the Mets simply at all times confirmed us who they actually had been, the Padres nonetheless have that glimmer of “but if they do figure it out, it’s going to be special” sheen there. I hope. I actually hope.
11. Boston Red Sox
Leitch: It would appear not possible for a staff just like the Red Sox to sneak up on anybody. But with the (semi-understandable) agita about dropping Betts and Xander Bogaerts and all of that, it’s virtually like nobody has observed that the Red Sox are fairly good. The rotation is a bit higher than anybody realizes — James Paxton Renaissance Hive Assemble — and the bullpen is performing precisely the best way you’d need them to, holding down the fort sufficient for the offense to do its factor. In retrospect, their offseason strikes look savvy and prudent, as was trusting that Triston Casas would finally determine it out. He has been probably the greatest hitters in baseball for the final month-and-a-half.
Having a lot religion in them come October could come all the way down to how a lot you need to belief in a wholesome Chris Sale, which is to say: not a lot. But they seemed just like the clear last-place staff on this division heading into the 12 months, and whereas that also may be their destiny due to the excessive degree of competitors, for now they’re proper within the thick of the Wild Card chase.
12. San Francisco Giants
Petriello: Sure, why not. I do suppose the 61-51 Giants are getting slept on a bit, partially as a result of 2022’s follow-up to 2021’s miracle was unimpressive, and partially as a result of a lot of the discover they bought final winter was about “failing to sign the top-tier free agents they thought they were going to sign.” But Farhan Zaidi and mates did a strong job of including depth and competency — and though rookie catcher Patrick Bailey hasn’t hit all that a lot, he’s one thing completely particular behind the plate. (That’s whether or not you take a look at metrics, the place he’s tied for 2023’s greatest defensive catcher, or simply the highlights, when he’s doing issues like “ending a game on a back-pick at first base.” Who does that? He does.)
Though they’ve an outdoor likelihood on the division, it’s extra probably they’ll get in as a Wild Card, and it’s not that onerous to see them making noise. I’m into the bullpen that has essentially-tied-for-best-in-baseball OBP towards, and Logan Webb and Alex Cobb are a strong sufficient prime two in a best-of-three sequence. But actually, I like this staff’s Guys. They simply appear to have a better Guy-per-roster-spot ratio of anybody in baseball, when it comes to non-star gamers who you would simply see doing one thing legendary within the playoffs. LaMonte Wade Jr.? Absolutely a Guy. J.D. Davis? Definite Guy qualities. I’ve watched sufficient Pat Burrell / Cody Ross / Darin Ruf moments over time to know that AJ Pollock is hitting a walkoff within the NLDS, Will.
13. Los Angeles Angels
Leitch: Time for a coronary heart choose? Time for a coronary heart choose. The complete Angels factor proper now’s to imagine. So let’s imagine that …
My mind tells me solely the fourth one is true, and I’m not even fully bought on that one. But my coronary heart desires to plunge headfirst into all 4. Their playoff odds are so low largely due to their brutal schedule in August, but when they’ll survive this month (huge if), possibly in September, Trout and Ohtani can carry them. And if they’ll get in? Well, then, the Angels develop into Earth’s Team. We all need to see it. Do I believe we see it? No. But I need to badly sufficient that I select to imagine.
14. Arizona Diamondbacks
Petriello: I’ve now chosen your complete NL West this aspect of Denver. This looks as if a foul technique! (It is a foul technique.) Here’s what I’ve bought: A couple of star-level gamers in Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte and Zac Gallen. A bullpen that simply added a high-quality arm in Paul Sewald, and please don’t ask anybody exterior the desert to call even a single different member of the reduction corps. A quietly good Deadline addition in Tommy Pham, who’s having a reasonably strong season and ought to be a pleasant veteran reinforcement for a lineup that would actually stand to be lengthened out a bit. I don’t, for the document, imagine Arizona is successful the World Series, as a result of the pitching workers is skinny. But hey, they’re enjoyable, they usually have some stars. I like enjoyable. I like stars.
15. Miami Marlins
Leitch: How many video games greater within the standings are the Marlins proper now in the event that they hadn’t despatched down Eury Pérez to handle his innings? They’re a half-game out within the Wild Card race proper now, and, I don’t know, it appears honest to ask whether or not they’re going to finish up a half-game out on the finish of the 12 months and cursing not having their greatest pitcher for the entire summer time. (Pérez is returning on Monday.) This could seem unfair, certain: Pérez is ostensibly an enormous a part of the Marlins’ future. But in each different method, the Marlins are, and have been, enjoying for proper now. This is a staff, and a entrance workplace, that should show it could possibly break by means of, they usually added items on the Deadline accordingly. (It can be wild if Josh Bell simply instantly went nuts over the past two months.)
I’m simply staying that seasons like this don’t actually come alongside all that always for the Marlins, and possibly you need to benefit from them in each method you may, when you can. If they’ll sneak in, a 1-2 punch of Pérez and Sandy Alcantara may give them a puncher’s likelihood in any sequence. So what’s the play, Marlins? Are you in, or are you out?
16. Cincinnati Reds
Petriello: Remember all issues I simply wrote concerning the D-backs the place it was all “well, I don’t think they’re actually winning because I don’t trust the pitching, but they’re young and they have some fun stars, and wouldn’t that be exciting,” and properly, the Cincinnati Reds. I suppose, given the truth that the Reds have a a lot clearer path to a division title than the D-backs do, the mathematics would recommend I ought to have taken Cincinnati over Arizona. But regardless of that NL Central increase, I’ve extra questions concerning the Reds, partially as a result of the rotation stays an huge downside, one which was in no way addressed on the Deadline, and in addition as a result of they’ve fewer stars I belief. (That’s proper. We all love Elly De La Cruz. I hope he results in the Hall of Fame some day. But proper now, he’s batting .240/.290/.438 since July 1). There is, I suppose, a non-zero likelihood they win the Central by one sport after which go on the sort of high-intensity, cardiac-level occasion for a month that you simply make motion pictures about. But I’m probably not banking on it.
17. Chicago Cubs
Leitch: The underlying numbers have lengthy argued that the Cubs could also be the perfect staff on this division, and their current eight-game win streak could have introduced them again nearer to the water degree the place they need to be. The Cubs don’t actually have any enormous stars, however you would argue they’ve fewer holes than anybody else on this division, they usually’ve bought one clear talent (protection) that doesn’t actually droop and makes all the pieces else higher. They’ve bought a harder schedule than you may suppose down the stretch — they gained two of three vs. the Braves over the weekend, however play three extra towards Atlanta within the ultimate week — however for those who’re not bought on the Brewers or the Reds, the Cubs may completely make a run. They clearly suppose it’s attainable: They had been surprisingly stout on the Deadline. They imagine. Maybe we should always, too.
18. Minnesota Twins
Petriello: … effective
I don’t even know the place to go right here. A probable division winner at No. 18 is a reasonably strong worth selection, I suppose, however we additionally all know that that is solely taking place as a result of the AL Central is one thing just like the sorriest division we’ve ever seen, and the full lack of motion on the Deadline doesn’t precisely encourage confidence right here. They didn’t get the righty bat they wanted, or the additional reliever, and that’s irritating as a result of they’ve constructed probably the greatest rotations this membership has had in many years. I’ll say this: I actually like rookie Edouard Julien, and I maintain hoping Carlos Correa will discover a strategy to flip round what’s been a really disappointing season. But if the perfect case right here is “plays in a weak division,” it’s a tough case to make.
19. New York Yankees
Leitch: With all of the relentless negativity happening in The Bronx proper now, is it attainable to make a case for the last-place Yankees? Well, Aaron Judge may go all Babe Ruth on the league over the past two months. That is, in spite of everything, how they made the playoffs final 12 months. But the items round Judge in 2023 are even thinner than they had been then, and if Carlos Rodón doesn’t determine it out quickly (he left Sunday’s begin with hamstring tightness), the rotation may very well be worse than that atrophying lineup. The Yankees had been comparatively quiet on the Deadline, they usually had been sensible to be. Do you suppose this staff is price including to proper now? The Yankees clearly don’t. It’s robust to argue with them.
20. Seattle Mariners
Petriello: As I’m requested to decide on between Seattle and Cleveland, the phrase I maintain coming again to is “a run.” That is: Which of those unlikely contenders have a greater shot of happening a surprising last-minute run? I suppose, just like the Reds, the higher reply is the one with the clearer path to October. (That’s Cleveland, however the Guardians are 4 1/2 video games out within the Central.) But give me Julio Rodríguez heating up, give me a rotation that misplaced none of its items by way of commerce, give me some hope that newcomer Dominic Canzone is quietly an excellent sleeper. It’s not going to occur, however I’ll take the expertise right here over a Cleveland lineup that’s struggled to attain runs and a Cleveland rotation that traded away considered one of its few wholesome pitchers in Aaron Civale.
The All-Star Game was enjoyable, anyway.
21. Cleveland Guardians
Leitch: I’ll say this: If the Guardians win the World Series, Aaron Civale goes to have a really superb story to inform each time somebody asks about his World Series ring.
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