Early-Season Pitch-Modeling Standouts

This offseason, FanGraphs acquired some new stuff. More exactly, we acquired some new methods of measuring stuff, and command, and pitching general, through pitch-level modeling. You can examine PitchingBot right here and Stuff+ right here. They’re actually cool! Pitch modeling is a superb software to each confirm the attention take a look at – that nasty-looking slider you noticed, it’s really nasty – and to seek out new pitchers to control. Sure, strikeout price and ERA and FIP can do this too, however stuff is a purer sign, as a result of it’s totally in a pitcher’s management. There’s no query of whether or not a hitter spoiled an incredible pitch, or whether or not that ball ought to have been a house run. There’s solely the pitch, with its motion and velocity and launch level.

Eno Sarris, the proprietor of Stuff+, has written about how rapidly that mannequin stabilizes, however for our functions, let’s simply say this: these pitch modeling instruments give an incredible early take a look at which pitchers are working with one of the best instruments early within the yr. That doesn’t imply that they’ll all be nice – they may not wield the instruments within the right order, or they may wrestle with command, or they may put on down because the season goes on – but it surely does imply that they’re beginning with a bonus.

I’d warning you in opposition to utilizing these with extreme granularity this early within the season. If a pitcher’s Stuff+ has declined from 119 to 116, or in case your group’s swingman has vaulted two factors above the fifth starter, there’s in all probability not a lot sign in that. Instead, I’m going to color with a really broad brush. I’m going to have a look at three teams of two at this time: two pitchers who each fashions agree have nice stuff, two pitchers who each fashions are down on, and two the place the methods disagree.

Let’s begin with the great things.

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

PitchingBot Stuff: 74, 1st amongst starters
Stuff+: 152, 1st amongst starters
Oh, certain, that appears truthful. We all already knew that Ohtani was nice, however c’mon, he has one of the best stuff of any starter in baseball now? It’s true, although: he simply retains including weapons, and the sweeping slider he throws is likely to be one of the best in baseball. Just ask teammate Mike Trout, who waved ineffectually at one to finish the World Baseball Classic. Or ask the A’s, who noticed 45 of them in his Opening Day begin.

As all the time, Ohtani’s splitter is magnificent. It’s been his greatest secondary pitch for years, and each fashions have it on par with varied splitter specialists on the very prime of the charts. This yr, Ohtani has executed one higher, although, by bettering his already-excellent fastball. He’s throwing it more durable and but getting extra vertical motion. Oh yeah, he instructions it too. The result’s a pitch that’s gone from strong to overwhelming. Pity Ramón Laureano, who drew Ohtani’s maximum-effort ire, painted low and away with runners in scoring place:

Ohtani already had dominant stuff. He was already among the best pitchers in baseball. Now he is likely to be higher than he was final yr – when he completed fourth in Cy Young voting and hit 34 homers with a 142 wRC+. What are you able to do aside from stare at his statistics in awe, mouth agape?

Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers

PitchingBot Stuff: 57, sixteenth amongst starters
Stuff+: 118, fifteenth amongst starters
May regarded like the subsequent nice Dodgers starter initially of 2021, however he suffered a UCL tear solely 5 begins into the season. He barely pitched final yr between rehab and a brand new again damage. I received’t fault you for taking a wait-and-see method with him. That mentioned, he regarded electrical in his first begin of the yr and each pitching fashions agree with the attention take a look at.

The largest change in May’s sport is that he’s throwing a four-seamer extra steadily than a sinker today. He threw 36 four-seamers and solely 18 sinkers in his first begin, a giant change for a man who got here into the large leagues as a sinker-only pitcher. Both of the fashions love each of the fastballs, which is a really enjoyable sentence to write down. His four-seamer has the requisite trip to make it laborious to get a bat on, whereas his sinker continues to be a bowling ball with large horizontal motion. It’s price keeping track of his launch factors – he persistently releases the four-seamer three inches or so increased up than the sinker, which hitters would possibly determine that out ultimately – however for now, an upper-90s mixture of two good fastballs is a good constructing block.

But wait – there’s extra. May’s breaking ball, which is both a curve or a slider relying on who you ask, appears to be like downright beastly. He throws it 85 mph on common, however with the form of motion that used to get folks accused of witchcraft. Poor Christian Walker by no means stood an opportunity on this one:

As a complement to that fastball/breaking ball combine, May throws a cutter that works primarily to maintain lefties sincere. It’s not the star of the present – it’s very clearly his fourth-best pitch – however the two pitch-level fashions agree that it’s above common as nicely. That’s a ton of excellent pitches, should you’re preserving monitor at dwelling. If May stays wholesome and pitches like this all season, the Dodgers could have an excellent higher rotation than I anticipated.

Now let’s take a look at two pitchers who fare much less nicely by the fashions.

Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals

PitchingBot Stuff: 31, 149th (out of 149) amongst starters
Stuff+: 71, 146th amongst starters
I’m not gonna mince phrases: Gray’s first begin of the season was horrendous. If you suppose a 9.00 ERA is unhealthy, you’re going to be horrified by a ten.63 FIP and three dwelling runs allowed. It’s the form of begin that plagued Gray all too typically final yr, when he allowed 38 homers to “lead” baseball. One manner to surrender plenty of homers? Don’t have good things. Our two fashions appear to suppose that’s the case right here.

Last yr, Gray led along with his fastball and complemented it with sliders and curveballs. This season, he’s attempting out a brand new sinker and cutter, each on the expense of four-seamers, which implies his two most steadily thrown pitches are the curve and the slider. That technique has labored for lots of pitchers, however there’s only one downside right here: Gray’s two breaking balls aren’t excellent. Whoops.

To me, the slider is the larger offender of the 2. It’s arrow-straight, the form of gyroscopic slider that works when thrown within the low 90s to enhance a giant four-seam fastball. Gray throws it within the mid-80s, although, and throws it with backspin, to the place as a substitute of diving off the desk, it hangs up enticingly. That’s a worst-case situation as a result of when he misses location, the pitch is static horizontally and fails to drop under the zone. That’s a good way to give up a house run. Like, say, on an 0-2 pitch:

Gray’s curveball isn’t fairly as offensive, although it’s nonetheless far too straight for my liking. The excellent news is, he throws it solely three ticks slower than his slider however will get a further 13 inches of downward motion on it, which implies it’s far much less homer-prone. But his cutter, which was chargeable for the opposite two dwelling runs, wants an overhaul too. Cutters are at their greatest after they have a little bit of glove-side break, or perhaps no horizontal motion in any way. Gray’s bends ever so barely arm facet, like a sinker that doesn’t sink or tail, and that’s a good way to finish up on another person’s spotlight reel.

You would possibly suppose I discussed all these unhealthy breaking pitches as a result of Gray’s fastballs are good, however that’s not even the case. His four-seamer was already marginal final yr and it appears to be like meaningfully worse this yr; he’s misplaced three inches of vertical motion. He can also’t command it; he threw 14 of them, 10 of which had been balls. Let’s name it like it’s: Gray doesn’t appear like a significant league pitcher proper now.

Noah Syndergaard, Los Angeles Dodgers

PitchingBot Stuff: 37, 137th amongst starters
Stuff+: 77, 141st amongst starters
Lest you suppose the Dodgers are all stuff success tales, Syndergaard’s pitch combine didn’t look so scorching regardless of a wonderful first outing in opposition to the Diamondbacks. His velocity is down but once more, to 92.9 mph on common, a far cry from the times when he cosplayed as Thor, the god of thunder. His sinker, which he used way more steadily than his four-seamer, is cookie-cutter, with respectable horizontal motion, respectable sink, and respectable velocity. Both pitching fashions suppose it’s barely under common because of this, as a result of throwing a pitch with no standout traits in any way isn’t an incredible concept in opposition to skilled hitters.

That standout attribute was Syndergaard’s velocity and four-seam rise, however these days look to be over. That additionally takes a few of the starch out of his breaking ball, a 90 mph cutter/slider factor that appears glorious off of an unhittable fastball however much less imposing today. He’s getting a ton of trip on it, much like the difficulty Gray has along with his slider, although Syndergaard’s is at the very least thrown sooner, giving hitters much less time to salivate earlier than they begin swinging.

One large caveat right here, although: Syndergaard situated extraordinarily nicely, which cures plenty of ills. I’m much less well-versed in how the pitch-level fashions deal with location, however Syndergaard will get a 67 command grade from PitchingBot and a 116 Location+ rating, each of that are comfortably above common. It’s okay to throw subpar stuff should you’re placing it in the fitting locations. Maybe that’s Syndergaard’s new plan. I’ll be watching with nice curiosity, as a result of it’s not daily you see somebody take the profession arc he’s adopted, and I feel it might be very cool if he succeeded after shedding his Asgardian powers.

Finally, let’s bask in somewhat pitch modeling debate.

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

PitchingBot Stuff: 58, fifteenth amongst starters
Stuff+: 98, 69th amongst starters
This comes all the way down to what you consider Senga’s ghost fork, the splitter/forkball/changeup factor that garnered 9 of his 10 swinging strikes in his opening begin. It completely befuddled the Marlins, and Senga knew it: eight of these 9 swinging strikes resulted in strikeouts as a result of he waited for two-strike counts after which pulled the string on them. In my eyes, it’s his standout pitch.

Just don’t inform the pitching fashions that. PitchingBot merely doesn’t give the pitch a rating, as a result of Statcast lists it as a forkball and there aren’t precisely many comparisons for that. Stuff+ offers it a 76, the place 100 is common, and uh, what? It have to be a tough pitch to mannequin, however I don’t actually love both system’s output right here. I’m going to want to see extra ghost forks and extra begins to develop a greater concept of what I give it some thought. For now, I’m contemplating it his greatest out pitch by a mile.

One factor the fashions agree on: the remainder of Senga’s pitches are strong. His fastball performs nicely, combining velocity with strong form. I’m undecided it might work that nicely if it weren’t persistently hitting 96-97 mph, however at that velocity, it appears to be like fairly good to me and to the fashions. He throws a wonderful sweeper, too, with a ton of horizontal break and a little bit of drop. It’s gradual sufficient in comparison with the remainder of his pitches that hitters have a little bit of time to regulate, but it surely strikes sufficient that their changes typically aren’t sufficient.

Senga additionally throws a cutter that PitchingBot thinks is barely above common and Stuff+ thinks is barely under common, however the important thing factor to search for right here is the ghost fork. What you consider that pitch has loads to say about what you consider Senga’s general stuff. I don’t belief both mannequin right here, at the very least but; I’d say go along with your intestine.

Aaron Civale, Cleveland Guardians

PitchingBot Stuff: 39, 128th amongst starters
Stuff+: 116, 18th amongst starters
Now right here is a disagreement. PitchingBot thinks Civale has nearly no stuff to talk of. Stuff+ thinks that he’s one of many nastiest starters within the sport. What on this planet is occurring right here? In a phrase, it’s every part. The two methods disagree throughout the board on how efficient Civale’s uncooked pitch metrics are.

Let’s begin along with his two fastballs. They’re not going to grade out extremely nicely by both measure, sitting within the low 90s with out excessive motion, however PitchingBot hates them. It offers them grades of 26 and 28 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Stuff+ is extra sanguine; it checks in at 76 and 101 on a plus-stats scale. That’s not an enormous deal, as a result of Civale principally depends on a cutter, but it surely explains a few of the disagreement.

Both fashions like Civale’s cutter simply high quality, although PitchingBot thinks it’s barely under common whereas Stuff+ thinks it’s barely above common. The largest disagreement of the entire bunch is in his curveball, which everybody agrees is nice. The query is how good. PitchingBot thinks it’s a 60, comfortably above common, however Stuff+ occurs to suppose it’s the second-best curveball in baseball, behind solely Taijuan Walker’s. I can see it; it’s a very fearsome hook. It will get each extra drop and extra horizontal motion than common, and it’s not even that gradual for a pitch with that a lot motion. Here, watch Tommy La Stella chase ghosts:

On the opposite hand, that’s the one swinging strike that Civale garnered out of 20 curves, and he additionally solely landed one for a known as strike. You is likely to be tempted to write down the pitch off on condition that. But that is one nice energy of pitching fashions: they take a look at the uncooked constructing blocks quite than what hitters did in opposition to the pitch on a single day. Civale’s curveball appears to be like principally the identical because it did final yr, when it had a 19.7% swinging strike price. It appears to be like principally the identical because it did in 2021, when it had a 14.8% swinging strike price, and in 2020, when it had a 19.7% swinging strike price. The Mariners did an incredible job in opposition to it, however that doesn’t imply it’s not a great pitch. It’s affordable to count on good season-long numbers on condition that we’ve a mountain of information suggesting that this pitch form works for him.

The fact on Civale might be someplace between the 2 fashions. I’m sympathetic to them right here; pitchers who throw cutters as their main pitch current issues on condition that differential from main pitch is a crucial enter. I’ll direct your consideration to Graham Ashcraft, who’s fourth in Stuff+ and twenty seventh in response to PitchingBot’s Stuff grades, as the same case. Modeling baseball pitches isn’t simple. That doesn’t imply that it’s not helpful, although, and I hope this was a useful take a look at the best way our leaderboards work.