Elly De La Cruz Impresses in Cincinnati Dehowever

The prospect ranks are as excessive as an elephant’s eye at Castellini Farms. The Reds might have entered this rebuilding cycle with all of the grace of an offended cat attempting to get a cereal field off its head (versus the awkward toe-dipping of the final go-around), however by way of trades and their very own scouting, they’ve accrued a powerful quantity of expertise within the minors. By our in-progress farm system rankings, solely the Baltimore Orioles place larger for the 2023 season. Mean ol’ Grandpa ZiPS agrees; the Reds had seven prospects on the preseason ZiPS Top 100, a complete that trailed solely the Guardians and the O’s. Baltimore and Cincinnati mixed appear to have about 80% of the shortstop prospects in baseball.

Whether you go by human or machine, no Red ranked extra extremely this winter than Elly De La Cruz, who was no. 6 (60 FV) on the prospect crew’s Top 100 and no. 15 on the ZiPS checklist. After a powerful 2021 full-season debut, De La Cruz cranked issues up a notch in 2022, hitting 28 homers and slugging .586 mixed throughout High- and Double-A regardless of solely being 20 years previous. Questions nonetheless stay about his long-term defensive place, however his bat has proved to be much more potent for Triple-A Louisville, as he hit 12 residence runs in a mere 38 video games and is already two-thirds of the best way to final yr’s stroll complete. He’s answerable for the International League’s ERA going up by almost half a run a sport from 2022! OK, I made that final bit up, however you needed to truly give it some thought for a full second earlier than you smelled burning khaki.

In his large league debut (batting cleanup!), De La Cruz had alternative to indicate off his means to hit baseballs very, very exhausting. In the third inning, he crushed a excessive pitch from Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin as if he have been channelling Lori Petty, sending the Cat Man’s fastball screaming into the outfield at a spicy 112 mph, leading to a double for his first main league hit:

He put yet one more ball in play, a groundout to Miguel Vargas; the 109 mph worm-burner was hit exhausting sufficient that the digital camera work went proper from the crack of the bat to the ball in Vargas’ glove. And lest you suppose his debut was solely about uncooked energy, he drew two of the three walks Gonsolin allowed on Tuesday night time. Evan Phillips spoiled the enjoyable afterward, getting De La Cruz to strikeout wanting with a sweeper on the underside exterior nook.

And sure, this was no extra a fluke than his minor league numbers have been. De La Cruz’s time with the Louisville Bats featured a mean exit velocity of 93.4 mph and a 55% hard-hit share by StatCast’s reckoning. Now, there are nonetheless areas the place he can enhance offensively — for instance, his 69% contact fee in Triple-A was on the low aspect — however one should keep in mind he’s nonetheless a 21-year-old participant who has rocketed by way of the minors, with little time to hold round and consolidate his positive factors. He’s additionally taking part in as quick as marketed, and offers the Reds a superb shot to have their first 30/30 participant since Brandon Phillips in 2007. The different two Reds in that specific membership are Barry Larkin and Eric Davis, who have been additionally fairly good as chances are you’ll recall. Especially with the league’s stolen base growth, a 40-40 season isn’t unattainable as an upside situation until he actually goes full Ellraiser.

As you may guess, the already sunny ZiPS projections for De La Cruz have gotten even sunnier after his extraordinarily profitable stint on the highest stage within the minors. ZiPS interprets his 2023 up to now at .271/.340/.488, a pleasant little uptick from final yr’s .276/.314/.448 (the 2023 translations takes adjustments in league offense within the minors under consideration):

Repeating the methodology I used for the ZiPS Top 100 Prospects getting into the season, this is able to transfer De La Cruz as much as third within the prospect rankings, behind Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson. These projections have Cruz at third, however his projections at brief at almost an identical WAR-wise, so both is an affordable chance from the projection POV.

With Matt McLain, a ZiPS favourite, having a torrid debut himself, Cincy has already made two de facto “acquisitions” that could be pretty much as good as any that one other crew within the NL Central makes this yr. And they’re not the one ones. The Reds cleared the best way for Spencer Steer to get an prolonged shot within the majors from Opening Day and Andrew Abbott, a 2021 draft decide who was our no. 90 prospect earlier than the season (no. 130 in ZiPS) had an enormous begin within the excessive minors. He earned a promotion and threw six scoreless innings (and almost 5 hitless) in his debut.

In a division the place the Cardinals have dug themselves a gap from which extrication might show troublesome, the Reds have larger playoff hopes than they’ve any proper to at this level within the rebuild. Going into the season, ZiPS pegged them with a 2% likelihood of creating the playoffs, with the idea that the Reds wouldn’t be overly aggressive with their high prospects. But McLain was up by mid-May and De La Cruz has an important shot at grabbing an ironclad lock on no less than the third base job earlier than the All-Star Break. As of Wednesday morning, ZiPS has the Reds at 9% to make the playoffs — nonetheless an extended shot, however in regards to the odds of an Aaron Judge homer in any given plate look and no person’s precisely shocked when that occurs.

And De La Cruz isn’t the tip of it. That vanquisher of William Van Landingham and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, is hitting .352/.408/.716 in Louisville; ZiPS tasks that the Reds would hit 11% playoff odds in the event that they merely made him the beginning first baseman proper now. Now, Joey Votto’s eventual return may spoil that chance, however there are sufficient weak spots within the lineup that the Reds might get inventive. And the crew might have to. It’s surprising, however the lineup may very well have a expertise crunch within the close to future that can require some imaginative considering to handle. Jonathan India has had a pleasant little bounce-back season up to now, so the additional shortstop prospect(s) are unlikely to discover a short-term residence there, and DH isn’t an important possibility until the Reds give Tyler Stephenson far more time behind the plate. And whereas Wil Myers is ripe for a DFAing after he returns, Jake Fraley and TJ Friedl have achieved greater than was ever requested of them getting into the season. Who would have thought the Reds can be plagued with the horrible illness of “too much awesomeness” this shortly?

The Reds’ tepid method to rivalry in 2021 might have understandably sapped many a Cincy fan’s love for the crew. Ownership actually isn’t doing its greatest to win again that affection, however the Reds’ younger expertise might. The followers certain appeared to get pleasure from final night time’s walk-off:

There are extra compelling causes to move over to Great American Ball Park than there seemed to be a yr in the past, and Elly De La Cruz is an enormous a part of that.